AUD/USD dropped to as low as 0.7472 last week and breached 0.7500 key support level. But there was no follow through selling and the pair recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week for consolidations first. As long as 0.7583 minor resistance holds, the consolidation should be relatively brief and recent fall should resume sooner rather than later. Below 0.7472 and sustained break of 0.7500 will indicate medium term reversal and target next support at 0.7328. However, break of 0.7583 will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. And stronger rebound could be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7472 at 0.7725 and possibly above.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Decisive break of 0.7500 key support will suggest that such correction is completed. In that case, deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we’re favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we’d anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage. But strong support should be seen between 0.4773 (2001 low) and 0.6008 (2008 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6532; (P) 0.6553; (R1) 0.6572; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment, and further decline is in favor with 0.6621 resistance intact. On the downside, below 0.6520 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 0.6442 first. Firm break there will resume the the decline from 0.6870 towards 0.6269 low. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, decisive break of 0.6621 will turn near term outlook bullish for 0.6870 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6880; (P) 0.6912; (R1) 0.6947; More…

AUD/USD is staying in sideway trading from 0.7064 and intraday bias remains neutral first. The correction from 0.7064 is expected to extend with at least one more down leg. On the downside, break of 0.6776 will turn bias to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7064 at 0.6469. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.7064 will resume whole rise from 0.5506 instead.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7323). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6721). Sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6801; (P) 0.6815; (R1) 0.6837; More…

AUD/USD’s rally from 0.6269 continues today and hits as high as 0.6839 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 0.6894 resistance first. Sustained break there will target 0.7156 next. On the downside, below 0.6772 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6689 resistance turned support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) could be just a medium term corrective pattern. Rise from 0.6269 is seen as the third leg of the pattern. For now, range trading should be seen between 0.6169 and 0.7156 (2023 high), until further developments.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7423; (P) 0.7441; (R1) 0.7462; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Overall, as long as 0.7555 resistance holds, fall from 0.7748 is still expected to continue. Below 0.7405 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 0.7382. Break there will target 0.7144/7158 support zone. However, firm break of 0.7555 will argue that fall from 0.7748 is completed and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a corrective pattern. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8115) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7342; (P) 0.7362; (R1) 0.7400; More…

AUD/USD’s rise resumed after brief retreat and intraday bias is back on the upside. Current rally from 0.7169 should target 0.7477 resistance first. Sustained break there will argue that larger decline from 0.8006 has completed and turn near term outlook bullish. On the downside, below 0.7302 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7169 instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6849; (P) 0.6920; (R1) 0.6974; More…

AUD/USD recovered ahead of 0.6854 support despite yesterday’s dip. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 0.6854 will resume the corrective fall from 0.7156 to 100% projection of 0.6854 to 0.7028 from 0.6854 at 0.6736, which is close to 0.6721 key structural support. Strong support is expected there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.7028 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.7156 high.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 0.8006 (2021 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.6169 (2022 low). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.7304. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 0.8006. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6721 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7205; (P) 0.7240; (R1) 0.7258; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside, as fall from 0.7555 is in progress for 0.7169 support first. Firm break there will affirm the case that larger decline form 0.8006 is resuming. Next target is 0.7105 support for confirmation. On the upside, break of 0.7369 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay mildly bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7094; (P) 0.7112; (R1) 0.7138; More…

AUD/USD’s strong rebound indicates short term bottoming at 0.7084, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias is back on the upside for further rebound. But for now, we’d still expect upside to be limited well below 0.7361 resistance to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7084 will resume the fall from 0.8135 for key support level at 0.6826. However, sustained break of 0.7361 will carry larger bullish implication.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Current downside momentum as seen in daily and weekly MACD support this bearish case. Firm break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7361 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6595; (P) 0.6618; (R1) 0.6639; More…

AUD/USD continues to gyrate around 61.8% retracement of 0.6457 to 0.6898 at 0.6625 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Further decline will remain in favor as long as 0.6719 resistance holds. Sustained trading below 0.6625 will pave the way to 0.6457 key support level.

In the bigger picture, outlook is mixed up by the deeper than expected pull back from 0.6898. Still, price actions from 0.7156 are seen as a correction to rebound from 0.6169. Break of 0.6457 will resume the fall towards 0.6169 low. On the upside, though, break of 0.6898 resistance will argue that rise from 0.6169 is ready to resume through 0.7156.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6662; (P) 0.6705; (R1) 0.6732; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.6680 support should now confirm down trend resumption. Intraday bias is back on the downside this week. Next target is 0.6461 long term fibonacci level. On the upside, above 0.6746 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But outlook will now remain bearish as long as 0.6915 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could also be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7135 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

AUD/USD stayed in consolidation above 0.6677 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 0.6822 will extend the rebound from 0.6677. But upside should be limited below 0.6910 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.6677 will target 100% projections of 0.7295 to 0.6831 from 0.7082 at 0.6618.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Firm break of 0.6826 (2016 low) should confirm this bearish view. Further fall should be seen to 0.6008 (2008 low) next. On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6696; (P) 0.6747; (R1) 0.6808; More…

AUD/USD’s rise from 0.6169 is in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Next target is 161.8% projection of 0.6169 to 0.6521 from 0.6271 at 0.6841. On the downside, below 0.6662 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, the break of 0.6680 support turned resistance confirms medium term bottoming at 0.6169. It’s too early to call for trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, rise from 0.6169 should target 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.6871. Sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6934) will raise the chance of the start of a bullish up trend. This week now remain the favored case as long as 0.6521 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7601; (P) 0.7617; (R1) 0.7627; More…

AUD/USD weakens mildly today as recovery from 0.7531 lost momentum after hitting 0.7638. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Near term outlook remains bearish with 0.7729 resistance intact and deeper decline is expected. Break of 0.7531 will resume whole decline from 0.8124 and target next key cluster level at 0.7322/8. However, considering bullish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.7729 will indicate near term reversal and bring stronger rebound back to 0.7896 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8049). Decisive break of 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) will confirm. And in that case, long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) will likely be resuming. Break of 0.6826 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8124 at 0.5496. This will now be the favored case as long as 0.7729 near term resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7822; (P) 0.7841; (R1) 0.7864; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Another rise is mildly in favor and break of 0.7896 will target a test on 0.8124 high. But we’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside and bring another fall to extend the corrective pattern. On the downside, break of 0.7732 will resume the decline from 0.8124 and target medium term fibonacci level at 0.7628 first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is seen as corrective pattern. Current development suggests that it might be completed with three waves up to 0.8124 already. Break of 38.2% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7628 will firm this bearish case. And, decisive break of 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement at 0.7322) will confirm and bring retest of 0.6826 low. In case rise from 0.6826 resumes and extends, strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6850; (P) 0.6886; (R1) 0.6921; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as sideway trading continues. On the upside, firm break of 0.7031/64 is needed to confirm rise resumption. Otherwise, risk will stay mildly on the downside in case of recovery. On the downside, break of 0.6676 will extend the fall form 0.7064 to 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7064 at 0.6469.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend form 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7340). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6717). Sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6841; (P) 0.6856; (R1) 0.6880; More…

Outlook in AUD/USD remains unchanged. Intraday bias remains neutral with focus on 0.6807 minor support. Break will suggest that corrective recovery from 0.6677 has completed at 0.6894. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for retesting 0.6677. Break will resume larger down trend. On the upside, above 0.6894 will resume the rebound. But upside should be limited below 0.7082 key resistance to bring down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6683; (P) 0.6721; (R1) 0.6746; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains mildly on the downside at this point. Pull back from 0.6870 short term top is in progress. But strong support would be seen from channel support (now at 0.6677) to bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.6759 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.6870. However, sustained break of 0.6689 will bring deeper decline to 55 D EMA (now at 0.6612).

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) could be just a medium term corrective pattern. Rise from 0.6269 is seen as the third leg of the pattern. For now, range trading should be seen between 0.6169 and 0.7156 (2023 high), until further developments.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6705; (P) 0.6718; (R1) 0.6727; More….

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 0.6662 is extend. Outlook remains bearish with 0.6774 resistance intact and further decline is expected. On the downside, decisive break of 0.6670 low would confirm larger down trend resumption. However, on the upside, break of 0.6774 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7031 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7079; (P) 0.7095; (R1) 0.7107; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral first. With 0.7121 minor resistance intact, further decline is still expected. On the downside, break of 0.7003 will extend the fall from 0.7295 to 61.8% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.6941 and below. However, firm break of 0.7121 will argue that decline from 0.7295 has completed at 0.7003. In that case, further rise should be seen to 0.7206 resistance to confirm. More importantly, in that case, corrective three wave structure of the fall from 0.7296 to 0.7003 would suggest that rise from 0.6722 low is extending through 0.7295.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.