CHF/JPY extending up trend, ready for 160, and then 165

    While Swiss Franc hasn’t been a strong currency recently, it did manage to extend up trend against Yen. It now ready to take out prior high of 158.45 set in 1979, (barring the spike after SNB suddenly removed the cap of Franc in 2015).

    Monetary policy divergence between SNB and BoJ continues to be the driving factor for the move. SNB is set to raise interest rate again this week and any hawkish comments or economic projections could propel CHF/JPY further higher.

    From a near term point of view, CHF/JPY passed through 161.8% projection of 137.40 to 147.58 from 140.21 at 156.58 last week. There is no sign of topping yet. Near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 155.53 resistance turned support holds. Next target is 200% projection at 160.57.

    From a medium term point of view, the up trend from 106.71 is in progress, and will remain on healthy track as long as 151.43 resistance turned support holds. Next target is 61.8% projection of 106.71 to 151.43 from 137.40 at 165.03.

    NZ BNZ services jumped back to 53.3, economy still on a broader slowing trajectory

      New Zealand’s BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index climbed from 50.1 in April to 53.3 in May, revealing a slight uptick in the services sector. However, it’s worth noting that this figure remains marginally under long-term average of 53.6. A closer look at the numbers shows activity/sales leaping from 45.4 to 52.0, employment increasing from 50.5 to 52.6, and new orders/business ascending from 50.1 to 55.4. Stocks inventories slightly declined from 57.1 to 56.8, while supplier deliveries edged up from 50.6 to 51.1.

      BusinessNZ’s Chief Executive Kirk Hope shared his insights, stating, “The lift in expansion for May also saw a pickup in the proportion of positive comments, which rose from 39.8% in April to 50.6% for the current month.” He further added that while there weren’t any defining themes, the overall positive comments were “either industry-specific or very general around increased activity.”

      Nonetheless, the economy appears to be on a deceleration trajectory, which, according to BNZ Senior Economist Craig Ebert, is necessary to deflate the inflationary pressures.

      “The bounce back in the PSI in May arguably helped calm a lot of nerves – after it sagged to 50.1 in April, and after the services component of Q1 GDP declined 0.6%. Still, this doesn’t deny the economy is on a broadly slowing trajectory, which is what’s required to take the inflationary heat out of it,” Ebert explained.

      Full NZ BNZ services release here.

      Fed Barkin: Inflation comes back stronger if you back off inflation too soon

        Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin reflected upon the lessons of the 1970s, highlighting the risks associated with an early pullback on tackling inflation.

        In his exact words, Barkin said, “The ’70s provides a clear lesson: If you back off inflation too soon, inflation comes back stronger, requiring the Fed to do even more, with even more damage. That’s not a risk I want to take.”

        Despite acknowledging a softening in demand, Barkin characterizd the situation as “weaker but not yet weak.” Further, he noted the robust labor market conditions and the continued spending by higher-income consumers.

        Barkin emphasized his continued skepticism towards a quick return to the 2% inflation target, remarking, “I am still looking to be convinced of the plausible story that slowing demand returns inflation relatively quickly” to the goal.

        Fed Governor Waller dismisses concerns over monetary tightening impact on banking system

          In a speech, Fed Governor Christopher Waller robustly defended Fed’s tightening of monetary policy, rejecting arguments that such measures have unduly stressed the banking system.

          Some critics have posited that Fed’s recent rates hikes significantly contributed to the distress and failures within the banking sector, suggesting that these factors should have been taken into account in the policy setting process.

          Waller firmly dismissed these claims, stating, “Let me state unequivocally: The Fed’s job is to use monetary policy to achieve its dual mandate, and right now that means raising rates to fight inflation.”

          “It is the job of bank leaders to deal with interest rate risk, and nearly all bank leaders have done exactly that,” he added.

          He reinforced his stance by adding, “I do not support altering the stance of monetary policy over worries of ineffectual management at a few banks.”

          He reiterated Fed’s commitment to its monetary policy objectives, which ultimately support a healthy financial system.

          However, he did acknowledge the importance of Fed’s role in ensuring financial stability, affirming that it would continue to leverage its financial stability tools to prevent the accumulation of risks within the financial system and address any emerging strains when necessary.

          Full speech of Fed Waller here.

          Eurozone CPI finalized at 6.1% yoy in May, core at 5.3% yoy

            Eurozone CPI was finalized at 6.1% yoy in May, down from April’s 7.0% yoy. CPI core (all-items ex energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) was finalized at 5.3% yoy, down from prior month’s 5.6% yoy.

            The highest contribution to the annual Eurozone inflation rate came from food, alcohol & tobacco (+2.54%), followed by services (+2.15%), non-energy industrial goods (+1.51%) and energy (-0.09%).

            EU CPI was finalized at 7.1% yoy, down from prior month’s 8.1% yoy. The lowest annual rates were registered in Luxembourg (2.0%), Belgium (2.7%), Denmark and Spain (both 2.9%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Hungary (21.9%), Poland and Czechia (both 12.5%). Compared with April, annual inflation fell in twenty-six Member States and rose in one.

            Full Eurozone CPI release here.

            ECB policymakers emphasize need to continue tightening

              In a chorus of comments today, ECB Governing Council members underscored the need for continued monetary tightening to combat persistently high inflation.

              Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel stressed the central bank “still have more ground to cover”, adding “we may need to keep raising rates after the summer break.”

              “Once we have reached the peak, we will stay there until we are sure of a safe and timely return of inflation to our 2% target,” Nagel said. He also highlighted the necessity of reducing the central bank’s balance sheet to support this policy.

              Bostjan Vasle, Chief of Slovenia’s central bank, echoed this sentiment. “If it turns out that inflation is more persistent than it seems at the moment…then of course further monetary-policy action will be necessary,” he noted.

              In Lithuania, Central Bank Chief Simkus expressed concern about the prolonged high inflation, asserting that “over the medium term, inflation is not coming back to an appropriate level.” He also questioned market expectations for early 2024 rate cuts, suggesting that such a rapid reversal would be perplexing.

              Meanwhile, Estonian Central Bank Chief Madis Muller clarified, “Euro zone interest rates have not yet peaked.” He added, “The ultimate goal is clear for the central bank: we need to quickly get the price rise under control.”

              Finally, Finland’s Central Bank Chief Olli Rehn, voiced the need for restrictive interest rates to achieve a timely return of inflation to the 2% medium-term target. “The key ECB interest rates will be brought to levels sufficiently restrictive…and will be kept at those levels for as long as necessary,” Rehn concluded.

              BoJ Ueda: It’s probably more difficult to deal with an undershoot of inflation

                In the press conference following BoJ’s decision to stand pat, Governor Kazuo Ueda said, “at present, inflation has exceeded 2% for 13 straight months but could fall below that level ahead. That’s why we are not normalizing monetary policy. But if that view changes sharply, we will have to change policy.”

                “We expect inflation to moderate, but it’s true the pace of decline is somewhat slow,” he said. “But we’re still in the early stages of the moderation. There’s uncertainty on whether the future slowdown will be a gradual one, or a quite sharp one.”

                “What’s important is not just our median forecast but how certain that forecast is … We won’t act just by looking at the median forecast. We’d like to look comprehensively at various data including distribution”.

                “We have to consider what tools we have at our disposal when inflation overshoots, and when it undershoots. When we compare these, it’s probably more difficult to deal with an undershoot of inflation.”

                BoJ holds steady, core CPI to decelerate towards middle of fiscal 2023

                  In a widely expected move, BoJ today unanimously voted to maintain its existing ultra-loose monetary policy. The central bank kept short-term policy rate at -0.10% under its yield curve control. Yield target on 10-year JGB remains around 0%, with fluctuation band allowed also maintained at about plus and minus 0.50% from the target level. BoJ reiterated its commitment to carry on with its Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing with Yield Curve Control “as long as it is necessary” and affirmed it “will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary.”

                  In its accompanying statement, BoJ noted that it anticipates Japan’s economy to witness moderate recovery by around middle of the fiscal year 2023. “Thereafter, as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies, Japan’s economy is projected to continue growing at a pace about its potential growth rate,” the central bank said.

                  Discussing the inflation outlook, the bank stated: “The year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI (all items less fresh food) is likely to decelerate toward the middle of fiscal 2023, with a waning of the effects of the pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the rise in import prices.

                  “Thereafter, the rate of increase is projected to accelerate again moderately, albeit with fluctuations, as the output gap improves and as medium- to long-term inflation expectations and wage growth rise, accompanied by changes in factors such as firms’ price- and wage-setting behavior.”

                  Full BoJ statement here.

                  NZ BNZ PMI ticked up to 48.9, staying in relatively tight band of contraction

                    New Zealand BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index ticked up from 48.8 to 48.9 in May, staying well below long-term average activity rate of 53.0. Looking at some details, production dropped from 47.0 to 45.7. Employment rose from 47.7 to 49.5. New orders rose from 49.6 to 50.8. Finished stocks dropped from 52.5 to 51.5. Deliveries dropped from 50.7 to 46.0.

                    BusinessNZ’s Director, Advocacy Catherine Beard said: “New Zealand’s manufacturing sector has remained in a relatively tight band of contraction for the last three months. While the overall activity result has crept upwards over that time.”

                    BNZ Senior Economist, Craig Ebert stated that “the range of results in the sub-components is mirrored in the breadth of issues manufacturers are now highlighting in the survey. Gone is the dominance of supply-side laments, especially regarding staff. But new negatives have arisen, for all of them to (still be) outnumbering the positive issues referenced”.

                    Full NZ BNZ PMI release here.

                    ECB Lagarde press conference live stream

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                      US retail sales rose 0.3% mom in May, ex-auto sales up 0.1% mom

                        US retail sales rose 0.3% mom to USD 686.6B in May, above expectation of 0.0% mom. Ex-auto sales rose 0.1% mom to USD 554.5B, matched expectations. Ex-gasoline sales rose 0.6% mom to USD 633.5B. Ex-auto and gasoline sales rose 0.4% mom to USD 501.5B

                        In the three months to may, sales were up 1.7% from the same period a year ago.

                        Full US retail sales release here.

                        US initial jobless claims unchanged at 262k

                          US initial jobless claims was unchanged at 262k in the week ending June 10, well above expectation of 246k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 9k to 247k, highest since November 20, 2021 when it was 249k.

                          Continuing claims rose 20k to 1775k in the week ending June 3. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -6k to 1778k.

                          Full US jobless claims release here.

                          ECB hikes 25bps, core inflation forecast raised sharply higher

                            ECB raises its key interest rates by 25bps as widely expected. The main refinancing rate, marginal lending facility rate, and deposit rates will be 4.00%, 4.25% and 3.50% after the hike.

                            In the accompanying statement, it’s reiterated that the Governing Council will continued to follow a “data-dependent approach” in future decisions, to bring rates to levels “sufficiently restrictive” to achieve timely return of inflation to 2% target. Rates will also be kept at that level “for as long as necessary”.

                            In the updated economic projections, core inflation projection is revised up notably in 2023 and 2024, and slightly in 2025. Growth projection was revised down slightly in both 2023 and 2024.

                            • Inflation is projected to average 5.4% in 2023, 3.0% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025. (March:  5.3% in 2023, 2.9% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025).
                            • Core inflation is projected to reach 5.1% in 2023, before it declines to 3.0% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025. (March: 4.6% in 2023, 2.5% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025).
                            • Growth is projected to be at  0.9% in 2023, 1.5% in 2024 and 1.6% in 2025. (March: 1.0% in 2023, 1.6% in 2024, 1.6% in 2025).

                            Full ECB statement here.

                            Eurozone exports down -3.6% yoy in Apr, imports down -11.9% yoy

                              Eurozone exports of goods to the rest of the world decreased -3.6% yoy in April to EUR 216.0B. Imports decreased -11.9% yoy to EUR 227.7B. A EUR -11.7B trade deficit was recorded. Intra-Eurozone trade was also down by -5.2% yoy to EUR 208.3B.

                              In seasonally adjusted term, exports fell -3.2% mom to EUR 234.5B. Imports rose 5.9% mom to EUR 241.5B. Trade balance turned into EUR -7.1B deficit, versus expectation of EUR 5.7B surplus. Intra-Eurozone trade fell from EUR 224.1B in March to 222.4B in April.

                              Full Eurozone trade balance release here.

                              Swiss SECO: Economic growth to be significantly below average

                                Swiss SECO expert group on business cycles expect “significantly below average growth for the Swiss economy”, at 1.1% in 2023, and then 1.5% in 2024. Both were unchanged from prior forecast in March. It added that while the economy started the year “vigorously”, “inflationary pressures remain high internationally and there are pronounced economic risks”.

                                Regarding inflation, the group expects inflation to stabilize at 2.3% in 2024 (down from March forecast of 2.4%), and then falls to 1.5% average in 2024 (unchanged from prior forecast). Unemployment rate is expected to average 2.0% in 2023, and then rise to 2.3% in 2024.

                                Full SECO release here.

                                ECB to hike 25bps, can EUR/CHF extend rebound?

                                  ECB is widely expected to raise interest rates today, and lift the main refinancing rate by 25bps to 4.00%, the highest level since 2001. The deposit rate, once negative, will correspondingly be raised to 3.50%. The bigger question is about forward guidance, but it’s unlikely for President Christine Lagarde to shift from the “data-dependent”, “meeting-by-meeting” approach for any future decisions. Nevertheless, the new economic projections could still reveal some hints on ECB’s thought.

                                  Some previews on ECB:

                                  As for market reactions, we’d be closely watching EUR/CHF. A short term bottom should be in place at 0.9670, after hitting 61.8% retracement of 0.9407 to 1.0095 at 0.9670. Sustained trading above 55 D EMA will add to the case that whole correction from 1.0095 has completed today. Such development will also bolster the case that whole rise from 0.9407 (2022 low) is ready to resume later in the year. But, that might require something hawkish from ECB as a trigger.

                                  Japan starts verbal intervention as USD/JPY surges pass 140

                                    The steep decline in Japanese Yen in Asian session trigger verbal intervention by a top government official. Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno said at a press conference, “It is important for foreign exchange markets to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals, and excessive changes are undesirable.”

                                    “There is no change to the government’s stance that we will closely monitor movements in the currency market and take appropriate steps if necessary,” he added.

                                    USD/JPY surges pass 140.90 resistance to resume whole rally from 127.20 (Jan low). 61.8% retracement of 151.93 Further rise should be seen to 127.20 at 142.48. But the pair might start to feel heavy above there, as the government could step up rhetorics on intervention further.

                                    China production and investment data show struggling private sector

                                      China’s industrial production growth for May came in at 3.5% yoy, aligning with market expectations. However, a discrepancy was observed in growth rates of private and state-owned businesses. Industrial output from private businesses only managed to expand by 0.7% yoy, a stark contrast to the 4.4% yoy growth posted by state-owned enterprises.

                                      Furthermore, China’s fixed asset investment rose 4.0% ytd yoy, a figure falling short of the anticipated 4.4% and a marked deceleration from 4.7% recorded during the first four months of 2023. Notably, private businesses experienced a dip in their fixed asset investment by -0.1% ytd yoy, while state-owned enterprises reported robust growth of 8.4%.

                                      Meanwhile, retail sales failed to meet expectations, recording a rise of 12.7% yoy, lower expectation of 13.9% yoy increase.

                                      In a separate but related development, People’s Bank of China announced a cut in rate on its one-year medium-term lending facility loans to financial institutions. The rate was lowered from 2.75% to 2.65%, following the bank’s decision to cut seven-day reverse repo and standing lending facility rate earlier this week.

                                      Australia employment grew 75.6k in May, unemployment rate back to 3.6%

                                        Australia employment rose 75.6k in May, well above expectation of 16.5k. Full time jobs grew 61.7k while part-time jobs grew 14.3k.

                                        Unemployment rate dropped from 3.7% to 3.6%, below expectation of 3.7%. Participation rate rose from 66.7% to 66.9%. Monthly hours worked dropped -1.8% mom. Employment-to-population ratio rose 0.2% to 64.5%, a record high.

                                        Bjorn Jarvis, ABS head of labour statistics, said: “Looking over the past two months, the employment increases average out to around 36,000 extra employed people each month. This is still around the average over the past year of 39,000 people a month.”

                                        “Just before the start of the pandemic almost 13 million people were employed in Australia. In May 2023, this had risen to just over 14 million people.”

                                        Full Australia employment release here.

                                        NZ GDP down -0.1% qoq in Q1, driven by inventory rundown and services exports

                                          New Zealand GDP contracted -0.1% qoq in Q1 as expected. Primary industries fell -0.5%. Service industries fell -0.6%. Goods producing industries fell -0.4%.

                                          StatsNZ noted, “The expenditure measure of GDP fell 0.2 percent this quarter. This decline was driven by run downs in inventories held by businesses, and a fall in exports of services.”

                                          “A 2.4 percent increase in household consumption expenditure and 2.0 percent growth in investment in fixed assets partially offset the falls.”

                                          Full NZ GDP release here.