Talking to Bloomberg TV, ECB Governing Council member Ignazio Visco said, “Since we have also been observing a substantial reduction in energy prices, we have to expect that this will be seen also in underlying inflation in the coming months, certainly by the end of the year.”

Visco also suggested the possibility of a quicker pace than initially forecasted by ECB, saying, “The ECB projects that by the end of 2025 there will be 2% — my impression is that it might be faster.”

Visco cautioned against the risks associated with making excessive adjustments, stating, “There is a risk of doing too much and I think that we have to be careful about that.” However, he also noted the potential risk of doing too little, emphasizing the need for balance and judicious decision-making based on incoming information.

Meanwhile, another Governing Council member Klaas Knot expressed his perspective on potential policy adjustments beyond July. “For July I think it (rate hike) is a necessity, for anything beyond July it would at most be a possibility but by no means a certainty,” Knot said. He urged careful monitoring of the data from July onwards, to assess the distribution of risks surrounding the baseline.

Bundesbank President and ECB Governing Council member, Joachim Nagel expects a 25 bps increase for the upcoming July meeting of ECB. As for the meeting in September, Nagel stated on Monday, “we will see what the data will tell us.”

Unlike previous financial cycles, core inflation rates in developed nations are not declining as swiftly, implying a more drawn-out recovery process. Despite this, Nagel dismissed the notion of an over-tightened policy risking a hard landing for Europe as interest rates rise. “It’s too early to really declare a certain kind of victory when it comes to our inflation fight,” Nagel remarked.

Notably, the Bundesbank chief advised patience in the face of these challenges, acknowledging a potentially slower pace in transmission of monetary policy. “This time maybe we have to be a little bit more patient. The pace of the transmission channel is maybe not as fast as it was in the past,” he added.

ECB’s account of its June meeting revealed a wide consensus in favor of a 25 bps rate hike. Interestingly, the minutes also noted an initial preference for an even steeper hike of 50 basis points.

“A preference was also initially expressed for raising the key ECB interest rates by 50 basis points in view of the risk of high inflation becoming more persistent,” the minutes noted.

However, the adopted “data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach” and uncertainties in the global economic landscape resulted in the final decision for a 25bps increment.

Meanwhile, the account noted, “Emphasis was put on the need to be sufficiently restrictive and persistent in the monetary policy tightening.”

It’s crucial, as per ECB’s narrative, to convey that their monetary policy still has a long way to go to bring inflation back to the target in a timely manner.

The meeting minutes convey this message clearly, stating, “It was seen as essential to communicate that monetary policy had still more ground to cover to bring inflation back to target in a timely manner.”

Full ECB accounts here.