ECB hikes 25 bps, maintains data-dependent approach

    ECB sticks to the script and delivers another 25bps hike on its three key interest rates today, meeting market expectations. The main refinancing, marginal lending, and deposit rates now stand at 4.25%, 4.50%, and 3.75% respectively, effective August 2.

    In its statement, the ECB highlighted the ongoing concerns around inflation, indicating it was poised to remain “above the target for an extended period”, despite expectations of a decrease over the remainder of the year. It also noted that while some measures showed signs of easing, “underlying inflation remains high overall.”

    ECB reiterated that it is committed to setting interest rates at “sufficiently restrictive” levels “for as long as necessary”. Stressing the bank’s ongoing commitment to a data-dependent strategy, it added, “The Governing Council will continue to follow a data-dependent approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction.”

    Full ECB statement here.

    Germany Gfk consumer sentiment edged up to -24.4 on declining inflation

      Germany Gfk Consumer Sentiment for August improved from -25.2 to -24.4, slightly above expectation of -24.7. In July, Economic Expectations was unchanged at 3.7. Income Expectations rose from -10.6 to -5.1. Propensity to buy ticked up from -14.6 to -14.3.

      “Currently, only income expectations are contributing to the improvement in consumer sentiment. The main reason for the decrease in pessimism is the hope of declining inflation rates,” explains GfK consumer expert Rolf Bürkl.

      “This has somewhat improved the chances of consumer sentiment resuming its recovery course. However, the level will still remain low in the coming months, and private consumption will therefore not be able to make a positive contribution to overall economic development.”

      Full German Gfk consumer sentiment release here.

      ECB to hike another 25bps, EUR/CHF accelerating downwards

        ECB is widely expected to raise interest rates for the ninth time in a row today. The main refinancing rate will be lifted by 25bps to 4.25%. Deposit rate, once negative will be raised by 25bps to 3.50%. The question remains on what the central bank would do next, and whether there would be further tightening in September. But it’s unlikely for President Christine Lagarde to provide any concrete answer, other likely pointing to incoming data and the new economic projections to be prepared before next decision.

        EUR/CHF’s decline from 1.0095 is showing sign of downside acceleration this week, by breaking through near term falling channel support, and as displayed in D MACD too. Next target is 100% projection of 0.9995 to 0.9670 from 0.9840 at 0.9515. Sustained break there will put 0.9407 (2022 low) in focus. Regardless of any recovery, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9670 support turned resistance holds.

        Meanwhile, it should also be noted that prior rejection by 55 W EMA keeps medium term outlook in EUR/CHF bearish. That is, the down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is in favor to continue. Firm break of 0.9407 would set the stage for 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 1.0095 at 0.9018 in the medium term. The unfolding of this bearish scenario would depend significantly on the evolution of increasing recession risks in the latter half of the year and the impact on timing of the first ECB rate cut.

        Australia export price down -8.5% qoq in Q2, largest fall since 2009

          Australia’s Q2 Export Price Index registered -8.5% qoq drop, the most substantial quarterly decline since Q3 2009. Concurrently, the index declined -11.2% yoy compared to the same quarter last year. On the flip side, Import Price Index dipped slightly by -0.8% qoq, – 0.3% yoy.

          Michelle Marquardt, Head of Price Statistics at Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), attributed this steep fall in the Export Price Index to a substantial contraction in global energy demand. “Global economic slowdown and eased supply pressures are contributing to a retreat in energy prices from their 2022 peak,” said Marquardt.

          The dampening effect of weaker energy prices extended to the Import Price Index, which saw a decline of -0.8% in Q2 2023. More specifically, the prices of petroleum and petroleum products decreased by -7.0% in this quarter. Nevertheless, this decline in energy prices was somewhat counterbalanced by inflationary pressures on various imported consumption and capital goods.

          Full Australia international trade price indexes release here.

          Fed Powell keeps Sep hike open, S&P 500 continues to lose upside momentum

            US equities ended mixed in Wednesday’s session, following Fed’s expected rate increase by 25 bps to 5.25-5.50%. Despite the major policy decision, market volatility was surprisingly restrained throughout the trading session. Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that another rate hike could be on the table for September, while steering clear of predicting when a rate cut might transpire, pointing to the prevailing high economic uncertainty.

            Current market expectations for additional rate hikes this year stand at 22% for September, 33% for November, and 30% for December. The likelihood of a rate cut commencing as early as March next year is considered to be 55.8%.

            Powell, in the post-meeting press conference, stated, “It is certainly possible we would raise the funds rate at the September meeting if the data warranted, and I would also say it’s possible that we would choose to hold steady at that meeting”. He emphasized that Fed’s monetary policy decisions will continue to be formulated on a meeting-by-meeting basis, largely dependent on economic data and indicators.

            When discussing potential rate cuts, Powell asserted, “We’d be comfortable cutting rates when we’re comfortable cutting rates,” suggesting that a cut could take place next year if inflation hovers consistently near the Fed’s target. However, he stressed that this scenario remains a considerable ‘if,’ given the considerable uncertainty surrounding future economic developments and subsequent policy meetings.

            More on FOMC

            S&P 500 closed down slightly by -0.02% overnight. The index continued to lose upside momentum as seen in D MACD. While further rise cannot be ruled out, upside would likely be limited by 138.2% projection of 3491.58 to 4100.51 from 3808.86 at 4650.40. Meanwhile, break of 4458.48 resistance turned support will confirm that a correction is at least underway, and target 55 D EMA (now at 4362.79) and below.

            Fed hikes 25bps, issues near carbon copy statement as prior

              FOMC raises federal funds rate by 25bps to 5.25-5.50% as widely expected, by unanimous vote. The accompanying statement is like a carbon copy for the June’s one. The one exception is:

              “The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.”

              Fed will continue to “continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy.”

              Full statement below:

              Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.

              The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

              The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. The Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

              In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

              Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller.

              Gold rebounding, eyeing more upside

                Gold rebounds notably today and immediate focus is now on 1973.59 minor resistance. Firm break there should confirm that pull back from 1987.22 has completed at 1951.54. Further rise should then be seen through 1987.22 to resume whole rally from 1892.76.

                More importantly, the support from 55 D EMA (now at 1950.61) is a sign of near term bullishness. The bounce from this EMA could be strong enough to push Gold through the next obstacle at 61.8% retracement of 2062.95 to 1892.76 at 1997.93, which is just inch below 2000 psychological level.

                AUD/JPY gaining downside momentum towards 93.22 support and below

                  While Dollar is treading water ahead of FOMC rate decision, AUD/JPY is stealing the show as the top mover as markets enter into US session. Aussie’s selloff is gaining some momentum as markets continue to digest lower than expected CPI reading from Australia released earlier today. There are increasing calls for RBA to stand pat again on August 1, i.e. next Tuesday.

                  On the Japanese front, despite the prevailing anticipation that BoJ will maintain its monetary policy and yield curve control unchanged on Friday, traders might be rethinking their positions. This follows the advice of IMF’s Chief Economist encouraging BoJ to start planning for rate hikes and gradually distance itself from YCC. BoJ’s track record of catching the market off guard—acting when least expected and remaining idle when action is anticipated—complicates any definite predictions.

                  Anyway, the break of 94.63 minor support indicates that AUD/JPY’s corrective recovery from 93.22 has completed at 95.84 already, after hitting near term falling trend line resistance. Deeper fall is expected to retest 93.22 support first. Firm break there will resume the whole decline from 97.66.

                  Fall from 97.66 could be interpreted as a correction to rise from 86.04, or the third leg of the medium term pattern from 99.32. In either case, the next near term target after decisively breaking 93.22 will be 100% projection of 97.66 to 93.22 from 95.84 at 91.40.

                  Fed to hike 25bps, too soon to confirm it’s last

                    FOMC is widely anticipated to increase interest rates by 25bps to between 5.25-5.50% today, following a brief pause in June. Recent chatter among financial circles suggests that this could mark the last hike in Fed’s current tightening cycle, as inflation has shown promising signs of deceleration.

                    However, it’s worth noting that the next FOMC meeting is not scheduled until September 20-21, a significant interval that will witness multiple key data releases. These encompass two sets of PCE inflation, CPI, and non-farm payroll figures. Furthermore, the September meeting will bring updated economic projections from Fed.

                    Given this context, it is highly improbable that today’s accompanying statement will slacken the tightening bias. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to maintain a cautious approach, underscoring the commitment to curb inflation and even reiterating that Fed policymakers had projected at least one more rate hike this year, in their last projections. However, any departure from these expected messages could precipitate a bearish turn for Dollar and a bullish surge for stocks.

                    Presently, market expectations for another rate hike stand at only around 20% for September, 40% for November, and 36% for December. Meanwhile, market pricing suggests the first cut could be on the horizon as early as May next year, with an estimated probability of about 81%.

                    Here are some suggested readings on Fed:

                    IMF urges Japan to start preparing for rate hikes

                      IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas shared his views on Japan’s economy highlighting that the risks related to inflationary pressures likely lean towards the upside. He urged BoJ to start preparing for increasing interest rates.

                      Addressing Japan’s monetary stance, Gourinchas stated, “Our advice for Japanese authorities there is that right now, monetary policy can remain accommodative, but it needs to prepare itself for the need to maybe start hiking.” Furthermore, he suggested that Japan should consider flexibility in its monetary policy, “maybe move away from the yield-curve control that it has now.”

                      In its updated World Economic Outlook report, IMF projected a 1.4% expansion for Japan’s economy in 2023, up from a 1.0% rise last year, primarily driven by boost in consumption as pandemic restrictions are lifted. However, growth is anticipated to slow to 1.0% in 2024 as the impact of past stimulus measures wanes.

                      Australian Q2 CPI records slowest quarterly rate since Q3 2021, annual inflation eases again

                        In Q2, Australia’s CPI decelerated from 1.4% qoq to 0.8% qoq, coming in below the expected 1.0% qoq. This marked the lowest quarterly rate since Q3 2021. Year-on-year, CPI eased from 7.0% to 6.0%, falling short of anticipated 6.2% yoy. Annual inflation rate has been on a downtrend for two consecutive quarters since peaking at 7.8% in Q4 2022.

                        RBA’s trimmed mean CPI registered at 0.9% qoq and 5.9% yoy, which were below forecast of 1.1% qoq and 6.0% yoy respectively. While CPI for goods slowed from 7.6% yoy to 5.8% yoy, CPI for services rose from 6.1% yoy to 6.3% yoy, hitting its highest level since 2001.

                        Michelle Marquardt, ABS head of prices statistics, noted the shift in inflationary drivers, stating, “This is the first time since September 2021 that services inflation has been higher than goods, highlighting the change from 12 months ago when goods like new dwellings and automotive fuel were driving inflation. Now price increases for a range of services like rents, restaurant meals, child-care and insurance are keeping inflation high.”

                        In June, monthly CPI slipped from 5.5% yoy to 5.4% yoy, in line with expectations. CPI excluding volatile items and holiday travel eased from 6.4% yoy to 6.1% yoy, and trimmed mean CPI fell from 6.1% yoy to 6.0% yoy.

                        Full Australia CPI release here.

                        US consumer confidence rose to 117, highest in two years

                          US Conference Board Consumer Confidence rose from 110.1 to 117.0 in July, above expectation of 112.1. Present Situation Index rose from 115.3 to 160.0. Expectations Index also rose from 80.0 to 88.3.

                          “Consumer confidence rose in July 2023 to its highest level since July 2021, reflecting pops in both current conditions and expectations,” said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board.

                          “Headline confidence appears to have broken out of the sideways trend that prevailed for much of the last year….

                          “Assessments of the present situation rose in July on brighter views of employment conditions, where the spread between consumers saying jobs are ‘plentiful’ versus ‘hard to get’ widened further…

                          “Expectations for the next six months improved materially, reflecting greater confidence about future business conditions and job availability.

                          Full US consumer confidence release here.

                          IMF raises global growth forecast for 2023, cautions on central bank rates

                            In the World Economic Outlook Update, IMF raised its forecast for global GDP growth in 2023 by 0.2% to 3.0%, while leaving the 2024 projection steady at 3.0%.

                            The IMF increased 2023 growth estimate for the United States by 0.2% to 1.8%, but pared back 2024 forecast by -0.1% to 1.0%. Eurozone growth forecasts received a slight boost of 0.1% for both 2023 and 2024, bringing them to 0.9% and 1.5% respectively.

                            On the inflation front, global headline inflation is expected to decline from 8.7% in 2022 to 6.8% in 2023, and further to 5.2% in 2024.

                            The IMF statement noted that although the 2023 forecast is marginally higher than what was predicted in the April 2023 World Economic Outlook. it still remains “weak by historical standards.”

                            Furthermore, the IMF drew attention to the impact of rising central bank policy rates used to combat inflation, stating, “The rise in central bank policy rates to fight inflation continues to weigh on economic activity.”

                            It also emphasized that most economies should prioritize achieving sustained disinflation while ensuring financial stability. Therefore, the IMF urged central banks to “remain focused on restoring price stability and strengthen financial supervision and risk monitoring.”

                            Full IMF release here.

                            AUD/CAD recovering, head and shoulder in the making?

                              AUD/CAD is one of the top movers today, riding on Aussie’s broad based recovery. Immediate focus is on 55 4H EMA (now at 0.8191). Sustained trading above there will indicate that the pull back from 0.9054 has completed at 0.8859, and bring stronger rise back to 0.9054 resistance.

                              While it’s still a bit early, it’s worth to point out that AUD/CAD could be forming a head and shoulder bottom pattern (ls: 0.8781; h: 0.8741; rs: 0.8859). Decisive break of 0.9054 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 0.9545 to 0.8741 at 0.9048) will be a strong signal of bullish reversal. That would set the stage for further rise to 61.8% retracement at 0.9238 next.

                              Germany’s Ifo business climate fell to 87.3, economy turning bleaker

                                Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index has fallen for the third consecutive month in July, from 88.6 to 87.3, slightly missing expectation of of 88.0. Both the Current Assessment Index and Expectations Index noted a drop, signaling a potential slowdown in Europe’s largest economy.

                                Current Assessment Index, which measures the present business conditions, dropped from 93.7 to 91.3, falling short of the expected 93.0. Meanwhile, Expectations Index, which gauges future business prospects, slipped from 83.8 to 83.5, although it managed to outperform the expectation of 83.0.

                                Ifo, the institute that conducts the survey, delivered a grim prognosis for the German economy. “The situation in the German economy is turning bleaker,” they said in their statement.

                                A breakdown by sectors shows a similar trend, with all reporting lower figures. Manufacturing took a hit, dropping from -9.7 to -14.2. Services sector also posted a decline, falling from 2.7 to 0.9. Trade sector suffered a fall from -20.2 to -23.7, and construction, too, saw a downturn, from -20.5 to -24.0.

                                Full Germany Ifo release here.

                                Copper and Aussie rally on China’s stimulus optimism

                                  Copper rises notably today, on optimism of fiscal stimulus in China, or at least some policy adjustment. Australian Dollar is also taken higher too, even though it lags in momentum. The moves come with strong rally in Hong Kong stocks and Chinese Yuan in the background.

                                  As for Copper, immediate focus in now on 3.8787 resistance. Firm break there will confirm that fall from 3.9420 has completed. That would also indicate the completion of the three-wave corrective pattern from 3.9501 at 3.7725. Further rise should then be seen to retest 3.9501 first. Firm break there will resume whole rise from 3.5387 to 61.8% projection of 5.5387 to 3.9501 from 3.7725 at 4.0267 next.

                                  As for AUD/USD, a temporary low was formed at 0.6714 with current recovery. If the rally in Copper continues to gather strength, it could aid AUD/USD in pushing through 0.6845 resistance, or even surpassing 0.6898 to resume the entire rebound from 0.6457.

                                  HSI and Yuan surge as China pledges policy adjustments

                                    Hong Kong stocks are having a strong rebound today, concurrently with a surge in Chinese Yuan. These dynamic shifts come in the wake of a promise from China’s Politburo to “adjust and optimize policies in a timely manner” for its troubled property sector. The top decision-making body has also underscored its commitment to promoting stable employment as a strategic objective. Other pledges include efforts to stimulate consumer spending and manage debt risks, and an intention to implement “counter-cyclical” policy.

                                    HSI opened with a substantial gap up and, at the time of writing, is trading over 3% higher. However, from a technical standpoint, HSI will need to convincingly overcome resistance level at 19523.71 and 55 D EMA to neutralize near-term bearish ness. Failing to do so, the decline from 22700.85 – whether it’s seen as a corrective move or part of a larger downtrend – is still expected to extend beyond 18044.85 low.

                                    Meanwhile, USD/CNH is diving notably too. Market rumors suggest that major state-owned banks have been observed selling US Dollars to buy Yuan in both onshore and offshore spot markets to bolster Yuan exchange rate. On the whole, USD/CNH is seen as extending the corrective pattern from 7.2853 only. In case of deeper fall, strong support could emerge at around 38.2% retracement of 6.810 to 7.2853 at 7.1037 to bring rebound.

                                    US PMI manufacturing rose to 49, services down to 52.4

                                      US PMI Manufacturing rose from 46.3 to 49.0 in July. PMI Services dropped from 54.4 to 52.4. PMI Composite dropped from 53.2 to 52.0, a 5-month low.

                                      Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

                                      “July is seeing an unwelcome combination of slower economic growth, weaker job creation, gloomier business confidence and sticky inflation.

                                      “The overall rate of output growth, measured across manufacturing and services, is consistent with GDP expanding at an annualized quarterly rate of approximately 1.5% at the start of the third quarter. That’s down from a 2% pace signalled by the survey in the second quarter.

                                      “However, growth is being entirely driven by the service sector, and in particular rising spend from international clients, which is helping offset a becalmed manufacturing sector and increasingly subdued demand from US households and businesses.

                                      “Furthermore, business optimism about the year-ahead outlook has deteriorated sharply to the lowest seen so far this year. The darkening picture adds downside risks to output growth in the coming months which, alongside the slowing in the pace of expansion in July, will keep alive fear that the US economy may yet succumb to another downturn before the year is out.

                                      “The stickiness of price pressures meanwhile remains a major concern. As the survey index of selling prices has acted as a reliable leading indicator of consumer price inflation, anticipating the easing to 3% in June, it sends a worrying signal that further falls in the rate of inflation below 3% may prove elusive in the near term.”

                                      Full US PMI release here.

                                      UK PMI composite fell to 50.7, reigniting recession fears

                                        UK’s economic landscape appears increasingly precarious, as evidenced by disappointing July PMI readings. Manufacturing PMI plunged to a 38-month low of 45.0, from 46.5 and underperforming expectation of 46.1. the Services PMI dipped to a 6-month low of 51.5, falling short of the anticipated 53.1, and down from 53.7. Composite PMI, encapsulating both sectors, dropped to a 6-month low of 50.7 from 52.8.

                                        Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, expressed significant concern over these figures. “The UK economy has come close to stalling in July which, combined with gloomy forward-looking indicators, reignites recession worries,” he noted. “July’s flash PMI survey data revealed a deepening manufacturing downturn accompanied by a further cooling of the recent resurgence of growth in the service sector.”

                                        Further bolstering this pessimistic outlook, forward-looking indicators, such as order book inflows, levels of work-in-hand, and future business expectations, suggest a potential weakening of growth in the coming months. Williamson warned, “these all point to growth weakening further in the months ahead, adding to a risk of GDP falling in the third quarter.”

                                        While this decline in growth and demand paints a gloomy picture, there’s a silver lining in the form of cooling inflationary pressures. “Although ongoing upward wage pressures mean service sector price growth remains elevated, the survey data signal further, potentially marked, falls in consumer price inflation in the months ahead,” added Williamson.

                                        Full UK PMI release here.

                                        Eurozone PMI manufacturing down o 38-mth low, PMI services at 6-mth low

                                          Eurozone’s economic outlook appears increasingly gloomy as latest PMI readings for manufacturing and services sectors disappoint, suggesting further contraction may lie ahead. Manufacturing PMI declined to 42.7 in July from 43.4, a 38-month low and below expectations of 43.5. Simultaneously, Services PMI dropped to a 6-month low of 51.1, short of the projected 51.5, and down from 52.0. Composite PMI, reflecting both sectors, sank to an 8-month low of 48.9, down from 49.9.

                                          Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, expressed his concern, stating, “Manufacturing continues to be the Achilles heel of the eurozone. Producers have cut their output again at an accelerated pace in July, while the services sector’s activity is still expanding, though at a much slower rate than earlier in the year.” He further warned, “The eurozone economy will likely move further into contraction territory in the months ahead, as the services sector keeps losing steam.”

                                          This less than encouraging data will surely unsettle ECB, as cost pressures in the private sector remain persistent, particularly in the substantial services sector. “The latest PMI reading is not going to please ECB officials…Thus, ECB president Christine Lagarde will certainly stick to her guns and hike interest rates by 25 bp at the next monetary meeting at the end of July,” de la Rubia explained.

                                          Meanwhile, France’s manufacturing PMI slid to a 38-month low at 44.5, down from 46.0, while its services PMI fell to 47.4, a 29-month low, from 48.0. The composite PMI followed suit, dropping to a 32-month low at 46.6, dowm from 47.2.

                                          Germany’s manufacturing PMI took a dive from 40.6 to 38.8, also a 38-month low. Services declined to a 5-month low at 52.0 from 54.1, and the composite PMI fell to an 8-month low of 48.3, down from 50.6.

                                          Full Eurozone PMI release here.