As seen from the latest Quarterly RBNZ Survey of Expectations, businesses have slightly tapered their inflation expectations in the near term but wage inflation expectations were on the rise. RBNZ OCR is expected to be unchanged at the current 5.50% through the quarter.
Expectations for annual inflation one year ahead have moderated, moving from 4.28% to 4.17%. However, a two-year horizon sees a marginal uptick in these expectations, which have climbed from 2.79% to 2.83%.
More long-term views, reflected in the five and ten-year ahead inflation expectations, both indicate a pullback, dropping to 2.25% (from 2.35%) and 2.22% (from 2.28%), respectively.
A notable area of concern stems from the annual wage inflation expectations. Over the course of both one and two years, these expectations are on the rise. For the year ahead, expectations climbed from 4.80% to 5.04%, and for the two-year mark, they increased from 3.53% to 3.66%.
Regarding monetary policy, the survey results indicate a stable outlook on the OCR. By the close of the September 2023 quarter, businesses anticipate OCR to average around 5.53%, a minimal climb from the prior quarter’s estimate of 5.47%. A one-year ahead mean estimate rose 32 basis points to 5.16% from the previous 4.84%.
Average one-year ahead GDP growth forecast surged to 1.02%, up from previous 0.48%. Moreover, businesses seem to be projecting continued momentum, with two-year ahead GDP growth expectations reaching 1.95% from preceding 1.66%.
WTI hits highest level this year, targeting 85 next
WTI crude oil continued its impressive rally, marking its highest price point for the year. This surge comes in the wake of Saudi Arabia’s firm stance, as the nation’s cabinet confirmed yesterday its unwavering support for the precautionary strategies adopted by OPEC+.
Adding weight to this commitment, just last week, Saudi Arabia prolonged its voluntary slash in production by a significant 1 million barrels daily until the end of September. Besides, Russia further bolstered the market sentiment by announcing a reduction in oil exports by 300,000 bpd for September.
Technically, near term outlook in WTI will now stay bullish as long as 79.94 support holds. Next target is 161.8% projection of 63.67 to 74.74 from 66.94 at 84.85, and possibly above.
However, barring any dramatic development, strong resistance should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 131.82 (2022 high) to 63.67 (2023 low) at 89.70 to limit upside, at least on first attempt.