US-China tensions intensified after Senate passed HK Human Rights and Democracy Act

    Political tensions between US and China intensified after Senate passed the “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act” that aims as backing Hongkongers’ push for autonomy that China promised in the Sino-British Joint Declaration. The Senate also unanimously passed a bill to ban export of munitions such as tear gas, pepper spray and rubber bullets to the Hong Kong police force.

    Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, the bill’s lead sponsor, said “The United States has treated commerce and trade with Hong Kong differently than it has commercial and trade activity with the mainland of China.” He added “but what’s happened over the last few years is the steady effort on the part of Chinese authorities to erode that autonomy and those freedoms.”

    The passage of the bill drew strong objections by China. In a statement, the foreign ministry said Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu summoned William Klein, the U.S. embassy’s minister counselor for political affairs. Ma told Klein the situation in Hong Kong was part of China’s internal affairs and demanded that the U.S. stop its meddling.

    BoE Bailey can’t tell when interest rates start to come down

      In an interview with BBC’s Newsround, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey retrained from providing a definite timeline for potential decreases in interest rates. Instead, he emphasized the necessity of bringing inflation under control.

      “I can’t give you a date as to when interest rates start to come down because that really depends upon what happens over the period of time ahead, but getting inflation down is the most important thing that we have to do,” Bailey stated.

      Offering a glimmer of optimism, Bailey noted a discernible reduction in inflation. He predicted a noticeable fall in inflation rates and affirmed the bank’s dedication to lowering it to their target level of 2%.

      Inflation “has already started to come down and I expect … quite a marked fall in inflation, we’ll notice it. What we have to do is set the interest rate to get it all the way down to 2%,” he expounded.

      Australia retail sales dropped -4.4% mom in Dec, but turnover remains strong

        Australia retail sales dropped -4.4% mom in December, much worse than expectation of -1.9% mom. That’s also the largest monthly decline since April 2020.

        “Despite this month’s fall, retail turnover remains strong, up 4.8 per cent on December 2020, with strong consumer spending continuing post the Delta Outbreak,” Ben James, Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Statistics, said.

        Full release here.

        China Caixin PMI manufacturing dropped to 49.1, straining under the triple pressures

          China Caixin PMI Manufacturing dropped from 50.9 to 49.1 in January. That’s the worst reading in 23 months. Also, the index slumped into negative territory for the fourth time since February 2020.

          Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “From December to January, the resurgence of Covid-19 in several regions including Xi’an and Beijing forced local governments to tighten epidemic control measures, which restricted production, transportation and sales of manufactured goods. It became more evident that China’s economy is straining under the triple pressures of contracting demand, supply shocks and weakening expectations.”

          Full release here.

          Eurozone CPI slowed to 1.1%, core to 0.9%, GDP grew just 0.2%

            Eurozone CPI slowed to 1.1% yoy in July, down from 1.2%, matched expectation. Core CPI slowed to 0.9% yoy, down from 1.1% yoy, missed expectation of 1.0% yoy.

            Eurozone GDP grew 0.2% qoq in Q2, slowed from Q1’s 0.4% qoq and matched expectations. Over the year, Eurozone GDP grew 1.1%. EU 28 GDP grew 0.2% qoq, 1.3% yoy.

            Eurozone unemployment rate dropped to 7.5% in June, down from 7.6% in May, matched expectations. EU28 unemployment was unchanged at 6.3%. Among the Member States, the lowest unemployment rates in June 2019 were recorded in Czechia (1.9%) and Germany (3.1%). The highest unemployment rates were observed in Greece (17.6% in April 2019) and Spain (14.0%).

            SNB Maechler: Further rate hikes may be necessary

              SNB board member Andrea Maechler said an in interview, “it is not out of the question that, based on new figures and developments, further rate hikes may be necessary to ensure price stability in the medium term.”

              “So it is really important to make an overall assessment with the figures we will have in December,” she said.

              Regarding inflation, “on the one hand, a single figure will never allow us to claim victory, and on the other hand, it is still 3%, far from the range that we associate with price stability,” Maechler said.”We will claim victory when inflation settles below 2% on a sustainable basis.”

              Eurozone CPI finalized at 1.5% in Feb, core at 1.0%

                Eurozone CPI was finalized at 1.5% yoy in February, up from January’s 1.4% yoy. Core CPI was finalized at 1.0%yoy, down from 1.1% yoy. EU CPI was finalized at 1.6% yoy, up from 1.6%.

                The lowest annual rates were registered in Ireland (0.7%), Greece, Croatia and Cyprus (all 0.8%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Romania (4.0%), Hungary (3.2%) and Latvia (2.8%). Compared with January 2019, annual inflation fell in seven Member States, remained stable in one and rose in nineteen.

                Full release here.

                Germany Ifo rose to 86.3, recession could prove less severe than expected

                  Germany Ifo Business Climate rose from 84.5 to 86.3 in November, above expectation of 85.0. Current Assessment Index rose from 84.2 to 93.1, below expectation of 93.6. Expectations Index rose from 75.9 to 80.0, above expectation of 77.0.

                  By sector, manufacturing rose from -15.4 to -11.7. Service rose from -8.5 to -5.4. Trade rose from -31.9 to -26.9. Construction rose from -24.0 to -21.6.

                  Ifo said, “While companies were somewhat less satisfied with their current business, pessimism regarding the coming months reduced sharply. The recession could prove less severe than many had expected.”

                  Full release here.

                  France PMI manufacturing dropped to 58.1, services dropped to 57.0

                    France PMI Manufacturing dropped from 59.0 to 58.1, below expectation of 58.3. PMI Services dropped from 57.8 to 57.0, below expectation of 59.0. PMI Composite dropped from 57.4 to 56.8.

                    Joe Hayes, Senior Economist at IHS Markit said: “It’s perhaps slightly disappointing to see the headline composite output figure dip slightly in July, but as the French economy normalises to a state of looser lockdown restrictions, it is not so much of a surprise. Regardless, the PMI pointed to another strong month-on-month rate of output growth, with service providers outperforming their manufacturing counterparts once again.”

                    Full release here.

                    Fed Powell hints on 50bps hike next, 10-year yield surges

                      US benchmark treasury yield jumped sharply overnight after Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave green light to more aggressive tightening pace. He said, “there is an obvious need to move expeditiously to return the stance of monetary policy to a more neutral level, and then to move to more restrictive levels if that is what is required to restore price stability.”

                      In particular, he added, “if we conclude that it is appropriate to move more aggressively by raising the federal funds rate by more than 25 basis points at a meeting or meetings, we will do so.”

                      Fed fund futures are now indicating 61.6% chance of a 50bps hike at May 4 meeting to 0.75-100%, up from 43.9% a day ago.

                      10-year yield rose 0.167 to close at 2.315. Near term outlook in TNX will stay bullish as long as 2.065 resistance turned support holds. Next target is 100% projection of 0.398 to 1.765 from 1.343 at 2.710.

                      ECB’s Villeroy downplays month-to-month inflation noises

                        ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau highlighted today at a conference that month-to-month inflation data will be volatile due to base effects, particularly related to energy prices.

                        He cautioned that this “noise” in the data is not very meaningful, and the ECB remains “outlook driven” and will focus more closely on inflation forecasts.

                        Villeroy expressed confidence that, barring any external shocks, ECB will bring inflation back to its 2% target by next year, achieving this with a “soft rather than a hard landing.”

                        He reiterated the need for a gradual approach to future rate adjustments and emphasized that ECB has “significant leeway” to cut rates before monetary policy becomes restrictive.

                        UK PM May to meet Irish PM Varadkar to seek legally binding change to Brexit deal

                          UK Prime Minister Theresa May will meet Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar in a dinner today. May would make use of the opportunity to press for legal binding changes to Irish backstop arrangement in the Brexit withdrawal agreement.

                          May’s spokesman said “This is about building on the discussions that she had in Northern Ireland and in Brussels yesterday. She will be emphasizing what we are looking for – seeking the legally binding changes to the Withdrawal Agreement that parliament says it needs to approve the deal.”

                          Fed Logan: We shouldn’t lock in on a peak interest rate or a precise path of rates

                            Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said, “we must remain prepared to continue rate increases for a longer period than previously anticipated, if such a path is necessary to respond to changes in the economic outlook or to offset any undesired easing in conditions.”

                            “And even after we have enough evidence that we don’t need to raise rates at some future meeting, we’ll need to remain flexible and tighten further if changes in the economic outlook or financial conditions call for it,” she added.

                            “The most important risk I see is that if we tighten too little, the economy will remain overheated and we will fail to keep inflation in check,” Logan said. “That could trigger a self-fulfilling spiral of unanchored inflation expectations that would be very costly to stop.”

                            “My own view is that, given the risks, we shouldn’t lock in on a peak interest rate or a precise path of rates,” she said.

                            US consumer confidence dropped slightly to 107.3, inflation and war to pose downside risks

                              US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dropped slightly from 107.6 to 107.3 in April, below expectation of 108.5. Present Situation Index dropped from 153.8 to 152.6. Expectations Index rose from 76.7 to 77.2.

                              “Consumer confidence fell slightly in April, after a modest increase in March,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The Present Situation Index declined, but remains quite high, suggesting the economy continued to expand in early Q2. Expectations, while still weak, did not deteriorate further amid high prices, especially at the gas pump, and the war in Ukraine. Vacation intentions cooled but intentions to buy big-ticket items like automobiles and many appliances rose somewhat.”

                              “Still, purchasing intentions are down overall from recent levels as interest rates have begun rising. Meanwhile, concerns about inflation retreated from an all-time high in March but remained elevated. Looking ahead, inflation and the war in Ukraine will continue to pose downside risks to confidence and may further curb consumer spending this year.”

                              Full release here.

                              Japan’s PMI manufacturing finalized at 49.5, sector remains in contraction

                                Japan’s PMI Manufacturing for April was finalized at 49.5, marginally above March’s 49.2, marking the sixth consecutive month of contraction in the sector. Jibun Bank noted that new order volumes displayed further signs of stabilization, while output charges experienced their strongest rise in five months. Additionally, input delivery times only lengthened slightly.

                                Usamah Bhatti, an economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, commented that the Japanese manufacturing sector remained in contraction territory at the start of Q2 2023. However, the rate of deterioration eased to the softest in the current six-month sequence, primarily due to the slowest reduction in new order inflows since July of last year.

                                Bhatti further observed that firms reported supply chains continued on the path to normalization, with the softest lengthening in delivery times in the current 39-month sequence. Inflationary pressures remained historically high, but manufacturers signaled that input prices rose at the softest pace since August 2021. To protect profit margins, firms increasingly passed higher cost burdens onto customers, resulting in charge inflation accelerating to a five-month high.

                                Full Japan PMI manufacturing release here.

                                US consumer confidence dropped to 135.1, tariff escalation could potentially dampen optimism

                                  US Consumer Confidence dropped slightly to 135.1 in August, down from 135.8 but beat expectation of 129.0. Present Situation Index rose from 170.9 to 177.2. Expectations Index dropped from 112.4 to 107.0.

                                  Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board said: “While other parts of the economy may show some weakening, consumers have remained confident and willing to spend. However, if the recent escalation in trade and tariff tensions persists, it could potentially dampen consumers’ optimism regarding the short-term economic outlook.”

                                  Full release here.

                                  DOW had limited rebound as US still some way from coronavirus relief package

                                    US stocks rebounded notably overnight but DOW’s 1167pts rise was way short of Monday’s -2000 pts loss. President Donald Trump disappointed the markets as he failed to deliver the coronavirus response measures he mentioned on Monday. There was no resolution at his meeting with Republicans. Trump just said after the meeting, “Be calm. It’s really working out. A lot of good things are going to happen.” It’s reported that Republicans are skeptical on the payroll tax cut pushed by economic adviser Peter Navarro.

                                    Also, after the meeting, Trump sent Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to meet House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to kick start a congressional response. After meeting with Pelosi, Mnuchin just said it’s too early to call the talks “negotiations”. Arguably, the US is still some way from concluding a certain relief package.

                                    High volatility will very likely continue in the financial markets ahead. DOW might be able to close Monday’s gap should there be any positive news out of the White House in the coming days. But there is no sign of a major bottoming yet. Corrective from 29568.57 is expected to extend to 100% projection at 22214.78 ahead, sooner or later.

                                    BoC Poloz: Timing of next rate hike depends on how the economy responds to the shocks

                                      BoC Governor Stephen Poloz reiterated that more rate hikes are warranted for the central bank. But the timing would be “data dependent” and “it will depend on how the economy responds to the shocks we’ve described.” He referred to developments including Canada’s housing market, trade tensions and import of lower oil prices.

                                      In particular, Poloz noted the past increase interest rates could lead to slumping activity. And the housing markets hasn’t “quite settled down”. He would like to see how the markets stabilize to know “where we stand”. That’s a sign taken then BoC could opt for a pause for a while.

                                      But Poloz also defended past rate hikes of BoC and some other central banks. He noted “we are at a stage in the cycle where it always looks like monetary policy is doing the wrong thing”. And, given the economy is “near its steady state, interest rates also should be near their steady state.” But Poloz emphasized that the actual level of the so called steady state, or neutral rate, is an “open question”. BoC estimates it to be 2.5-3.5%.

                                      UK GDP grew 1.1% in Sep, still -8.2% below Feb’s level

                                        UK GDP grew 1.1% mom in September, matched market expectations. That’s the fifth consecutive monthly increase. Industrial production rose 0.5% mom, matched expectations. Manufacturing production rose 0.2% mom, below expectation of 0.9% mom. For Q3, GDP grew 15.5% qoq, below expectation of 15.8% qoq.

                                        Still, comparing with February’s pre-pandemic levels, GDP is still down -8.2%. Index of services was down -8.8%. Index of production was down -5.6%. Manufacturing was down -8.1%. Construction was down -7.4%. Agriculture was down -0.7%.

                                        Full release here.

                                        Also from UK, goods trade deficit widened slightly to GBP -9.3B in September versus expectation of GBP -8.8B.

                                        UK Q4 GDP finalized at 0%, production dropped -0.7%

                                          UK Q4 GDP was finalized at 0.0% qoq, 1.1% yoy. Service output rose 0.2% qoq, production output dropped -0.7% qoq, construction output dropped -0.1% qoq. Over the year, US economy grew 1.4% in 2020, up slightly from1.3% in 2018. Both were slowest since financial crisis of 2008 and 2009.

                                          Full release here.