US markets are standing on precarious footing, with investors attention on the February non-farm payrolls report due later in the day. There has been noticeable anxieties surrounding the impact of fiscal and trade policies changes. A set of weaker-than-expected NFP data could be taken as another signal of swift deceleration in the economy and rattle market sentiment further.
Cooldown in the job market might prompt Fed to resume rate cuts earlier. Markets are currently pricing in 53% chance of a 25bps rate cut in March, reflecting growing belief that Fed will need to act sooner rather than later. However, the immediate market response to downside surprises may not be relief over monetary easing but rather heightened concerns about the pace of economic weakening, given recent policy uncertainties and trade disruptions.
Markets anticipate 156k increase in NFP for February, up from 143k in January. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.0%, while average hourly earnings should hold steady at 0.3% m/m.
The latest indicators paint a mixed picture: ISM Manufacturing PMI Employment subindex dropped to 47.6 from 50.3, while ISM Services PMI Employment inched up to 53.9 from 52.3. Meanwhile, ADP Employment reading of 77k missed last month’s 186k, and the 4-week moving average of jobless claims rose to 224k—its highest level so far this year.
Technically, NASDAQ has been sliding for two consecutive weeks, now testing its 55-week EMA at 17,874.13. A decisive break below this level would confirm that the index is at least in a correction relative to the broader uptrend from the 10,088.82 low in 2022. The next key support to watch is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 10,088.82 to 20,204.58, which comes in at 16,340.36. Extended losses here could set a negative tone for broader U.S. equities.
The S&P 500, still trading comfortably above its 55-week EMA at 5,590.31, may follow in the NASDAQ’s footsteps if sentiment sours further. Should the index breach this EMA convincingly, it would likely confirm that the fall from 6,147.43 is a correction of the uptrend from the 3,491.58 low in 2022. This scenario would set a 38.2% retracement target around 5,132.89, marking a significant downside pivot.
Overall, whether today’s NFP meets, misses, or exceeds expectations, the market’s reaction will hinge on how investors interpret the labor data in the context of looming trade uncertainties and weakening growth momentum. A softer reading could drive near-term Fed cut bets higher but might also deepen concerns that the U.S. economy is losing steam, thereby raising the stakes for traders and policymakers alike.
Technically, NASDAQ is now eyeing 55 W EMA (now at 17874.13) with the extended decline in the past two weeks. Sustained break there will confirm that it’s at least in correction to the up trend from 10088.82 (2022 low). Next target will be 38.2% retracement of 10088.82 to 20204.58 at 16340.36.
Extended selloff in NASDAQ could be a prelude to similar development in S&P 500. While it’s still well above 55 W EMA (now at 5590.31), sustained break there will align the outlook with NASDAQ. Fall from 6147.43 would then be correcting the up trend from 3491.58 (2022 low) at least, and target 38.2% retracement of 3491.58 to 6147.43 at 5132.89.
China’s inflation turns negative, but seasonal factors skew the picture
Released over the weekend, China’s consumer inflation dipped into negative territory for the first time in over a year, with February’s CPI coming in at -0.7% yoy, weaker than the expected -0.5% yoy, and a sharp reversal from January’s 0.5% yoy gain.
Core CPI, which strips out food and energy prices, also slipped by -0.1% yoy—its first decline since January 2021—signaling weak underlying demand.
On a month-over-month basis, consumer prices fell -0.2%, more than the expected -0.1%, reversing some of January’s 0.7% increase.
While the decline may raise concerns about deflationary pressures, NBS attributed much of the drop to seasonal distortions tied to the timing of the Lunar New Year. Stripping out this factor, NBS estimates that CPI actually rose 0.1% yoy.
Given these distortions, a clearer picture of China’s inflation trajectory will likely emerge in March when seasonal effects fade.
Meanwhile, producer prices remained in contraction for the 29th consecutive month, with PPU declining -2.2% yoy, slightly better than January’s -2.3% yoy but still below expectations of -2.1% yoy.