AU PM Turnbull: No ground to complain to WTO, as AU is exempted from steel tariffs

    Following Canada and Mexico, Australia was exempted from the steel tariff of the US. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull said there were no strings attached to the exemption. He said that “I know exactly what was discussed and there is no, sort of, request for any change or addition to our security arrangements.” He also said that Australia is not going to initiate any complain to the WTO regarding the tariffs. He added that “obviously as a country that will be exempt from those tariffs, we don’t have a basis to bring a complaint,” he said.

    Trump tweeted over the weekend that Turnbull is “committed to having a very fair and reciprocal military and trade relationship. Working very quickly on a security agreement so we don’t have to impose steel or aluminum tariffs on our ally, the great nation of Australia!

    EU Malmström sought clarity, Trump warned “we TAX CARS”

      European Commissioner for Trade Cecilia Malmström met U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer over the weekend to seek clarity on the steel and aluminum tariffs of the US. However, Malmström expressed her frustrations afterwards complaining that the meeting delivered “no immediate clarity”. She tweeted “As a close security and trade partner of the U.S., the EU must be excluded from the announced measures. No immediate clarity on the exact U.S. procedure for exemption however, so discussions will continue next week.”

      German Economy Minister Brigitte Zypries also warned that “Trump’s policies are putting the order of a free global economy at risk.” And, “he does not want to understand its architecture, which is based on a rule-based system of open markets. Anyone, who is questioning this, is jeopardizing prosperity, growth and employment.”

      However, Trump stepped up his rhetoric again as he tweeted “the European Union, wonderful countries who treat the U.S. very badly on trade, are complaining about the tariffs on Steel & Aluminum.” He added “if they drop their horrific barriers and tariffs on U.S. products going in, we will likewise drop ours. Big Deficit. If not, we Tax Cars etc. FAIR!”

      DOW breaks 25000, Dolllar weak after wage disappointment

        DOW opens with triple digital gains and is trading above 25000 handle. This represents prior resistance at 24995.24, and 50% retracement of 25800.35 to 24217.47 at 25008.91. Rebounds from 2418.47 has resumed and should now target 61.8% retracement at 25195.68 and above.

        But, for the moment, rise from 24217.47 doesn’t have impulsive look. So, it will likely start to feel heavy above 25195.69. In FX, after wage growth disappointment, Dollar is in red for today except versus Yen and Euro. Aussie and Kiwi are the strongest ones, followed by Sterling and then CAD.

        Fed Evans prefers to wait “a little bit longer” before rate hike

          Chicago Fed Charles Evans:

          • Still concerned with low inflation
          • “My own preference would be to wait a little bit longer, let the March anomalous inflation rate from a year ago fall out.”
          • “Let’s make sure these sort of Amazon, disruptive kind of pricing models aren’t continuing to find their way into keeping inflation lower than that.”
          • When inflation starts to show sign of heading to 2% target, he would be “much more confident” to continue “a gradual upward adjustment of the funds rate.”

          NAFTA collapse could cost Canada 0.5% reduction in growth in first year

            The Conference Board of Canada warned that failure to resolve the difference with the US and ending NAFTA could cost -0.5% reduction in real GDP growth in the first year. And that’s even taken a lower exchange rate and easing in monetary policy into consideration. The Canadian economy could also lose as many as 85k jobs the first year.

            In case of a NAFTA collapse, Conference Board predicts CAD 3.3b drop in real business spending in the first year. Real exports and imports will decline by -1.8%. Tariffs are predicted to revert to WTO most-favored nation rates. That is, Canadian exports to US would face 2.0% tariff. US exports to Canada would face 2.1% tariff.

            Dollar spikes higher on stellar 313k NFP, back down on sluggish wage growth

              Dollar spikes higher after stellar 313k NFP growth in Feb. But traders quickly realize that wage growth disappoints. Dollar then reverses the gains. On the other hand, strong buying is seen in CAD as unemployment rate unexpectedly fell.

              US job data:-

              • NFP Feb: 313k vs exp 205k vs prior 239k (revised up from 200k)
              • Unemployment rate Feb: 4.1% vs exp 4.0% vs prior 4.1%
              • Average hourly earnings Feb: 0.1% mom vs exp 0.2% mom vs prior 0.3% mom

              Canada job data:-

              • Employment change: 15.4k vs exp 21.0k vs prior -88.0k
              • Unemployment rate Feb: 5.9% vs exp 5.9% vs prior 5.9%

              NFP and Canada employment preview, 1.3000 key in USD/CAD

                Job data from US and Canada are the two main focuses in US session.

                NFP market expectations: –

                • Headline NFP number: 205k
                • Unemployment rate 4.0%
                • Average hourly earnings: 0.20% mom

                Other job released data includes ADP at 235k. ISM manufacturing employment rose from 54.2 to 59.8. ISM services employment dropped from 61.6 to 55.0. Initial claims and continuing claims were both at historically low level during the month. Hence, it’s more likely for headline NFP to deliver, or even surprise to the upside. The key is again on wage growth, which will determine the chance of the fourth Fed hike this year.

                Canada employment, market expectations: –

                • Net change in employment: 21k
                • Unemployment rate: 5.9%

                Being exempted temporarily from Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs is a relief for BoC. But the neverending NAFTA renegotiation is still a risk. Adding to that, if NAFTA talks fail, the tariffs will more likely come back than not. So BoC will likely stand pat until the picture because clearly. Risks will be more skewed to the downside for CAD on today’s release.

                USD/CAD is staying in consolidation from 1.3000, holding quite well above 38.2% retracement of 1.2614 to 1.3000. This 1.3000 level will be the key to watch as a break could trigger upside acceleration when rise from 1.2246 resumes.

                UK Industrial production 1.3%, 1.6% yoy; Manufacturing production 0.1% mom, 2.7% yoy

                  European session data update:

                  UK visible trade balance (GBP) Jan: -12.3b vs exp -12.0b vs prior -13.6b

                  UK industrial production Jan: 1.3% mom vs exp 1.5% mom vs prior -1.3% mom

                  UK industrial production Jan: 1.6% yoy vs exp 1.8% yoy vs prior 0.0% yoy

                  UK manufacturing production Jan: 0.1% mom vs exp 0.2% mom vs prior 0.3% mom

                  UK manufacturing production Jan: 2.7% yoy vs exp 2.8% yoy vs prior 1.5% yoy

                  UK construction output Jan: -3/4% mom vs exp -0.5% mom vs prior 1.6% mom

                  German trade balance Jan: 21.3b vs exp 21.1b vs prior 2.14b

                  German industrial production -0.1% mom vs exp 0.6% mom vs prior -0.6% mom

                  Dollar pares some gain as traders turn cautious ahead NFP. AUD, NZD, CAD are the strongest ones. JPY and GBP the weakest.

                  EU Malmstrom: EU should be excluded from US steel and aluminum tariffs

                    Some responses from EU on Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs:

                    Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom: –

                    • “The EU is a close ally of the US and we continue to be of the view that the EU should be excluded from these measures.”
                    • “Protectionism cannot be the answer, it never is.”

                    Germany Economy Minister Brigitte Zypries: –

                    • “The ‘national security’ argument could set a precedent.
                    • “The fear is that a series of other countries could use the national security argument to shut off their markets.
                    • “That would risk undermining global trade rules thrashed out laboriously over decades.

                    BoJ stands pat, Kataoka dissents again, little market reaction

                      No surprise, BoJ left monetary policy unchanged today. Short term policy rate is kept at -0.1%. BoJ will continue to purchase assets at a pace of JPY 80T per annum to keep 10 year JGB yields at around 0%.

                      Goushi Kataoka dissented again, continued his push to lower yields on JGBs with maturities longer than 10 years.

                      Quotes from the statement:

                      • “Japan’s economy is expanding moderately, with a virtuous cycle from income to spending operating”.
                      • “Japan’s economy is likely to continue its moderate expansion”.
                      • “Year-on-year rate of change in the CPI is likely to continue on an uptrend and increase toward 2percent”.
                      • Risks include: US policies, Brexit and geopolitical risks
                      • BoJ will “continuing expanding the monetary base:” until core CPI exceeds 2% and stays above in a “stable manner.

                      Full release here.

                      Little reaction in USD/JPY as it’s on course to extend the rebound from 105.24, following broad based dollar strength.

                      EC Tusk on Brexit: Ireland first, and no financial services in the deal

                        European Council President Donald Tusk emphasized that the Irish border issue is a top priority in Brexit negotiation. He said that “if in London someone assumes that the negotiations will deal with other issues first, before moving to the Irish issue, my response would be: Ireland first.” And he warned that “as long as the UK doesn’t present such a solution” regarding a soft border in Ireland, it is very difficult to imagine substantive progress in Brexit negotiations”.

                        In addition, Tusk explained that “services are not about tariffs. Services are about common rules, common supervision and common enforcement to ensure a level playing field, to ensure the integrity of the single market and, ultimately, also to ensure financial stability. This is why we cannot offer the same in services as we can offer in goods. It’s also why FTAs don’t have detailed rules for financial services.” That is, financial services will be bluntly excluded from the Brexit deal.

                        Fed George: Risks to growth “predominately to the upside”

                          Kanasa City Fed President Esther George (a known hawk) said

                          • “Risks to the outlook appear to be predominately to the upside,”
                          • Fed should “carefully calibrate its policy to lean against a potential buildup of inflationary pressure or financial market imbalances.”

                          “Predominately to the upside” is in-line with her hawkishness. Other members generally see risks to be “roughly balanced”.

                          Trump to meet North Korea Kim on denuclearization

                            Trump agreed to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un for nuclear talks.

                            The news came after South Korean National Security Council chief Chung Eui-yong said Kim “expressed his eagerness to meet President Trump as soon as possible”.

                            White House spokeswoman Sarah Huckabee Sanders said the meeting will be at “a place and time to be determined.”

                            Trump also tweeted “Kim Jong Un talked about denuclearization with the South Korean Representatives, not just a freeze,” “also, no missile testing by North Korea during this period of time. Great progress being made but sanctions will remain until an agreement is reached. Meeting being planned!”

                            Trump signed tariff proclamation but backed down from no exemption position

                              Trump finally signed the proclamations of 25% steel and 10% aluminum tariff yesterday. The new tariffs will take effect in 15 days. He said in the White House, surrounded by steel and aluminum workers, that “we have to protect and build our steel and aluminum industries, while at the same time showing great flexibility and cooperation toward those that are really friends of ours,”

                              But he backed down from his original position of no exemption. As Canada and Mexico are exempted, pending NAFTA negotiations outcome. And he opened the door for reduction in tariffs for countries that “treat us fairly”.

                              Trump added “I’ll have a right to go up or down, depending on the country, and I’ll have a right to drop out countries or add countries.” And, “we just want fairness. Because we have not been treated fairly by other countries.”

                              Dollar gains momentum with help from Euro selloff

                                Dollar is gaining momentum as the US session goes on . That’s partly helped by ECB disappoint as we see EUR is now the weakest one for the day. DOW pared initial gains and it’s trading nearly flat. Markets are now awaiting Trump’s signing of the order for tariffs. USD/CHF has taken out 0.9490 resistance mentioned earlier. Quickly, focus now turns to 1.2268 in EUR/USD.  

                                USD/CHF forming head and shoulder bottom

                                  USD/CHF is a pair to watch for the rest of US session as it’s pressing 0.9490 resitsance. Break there will complete a head and shoulder bottom pattern. LS: 0.9254, H: 0.9186, RS: 0.9337. In that case, further rise would be seen to 100% projection of 0.9186 to 0.9490 from 0.9337 at 0.9464. And as USD/CHF could have reversed its down trend, there would be prospect of a test on 0.9977 further down the road. But agian, that’s subject to a solid break of 0.9490 first.

                                  Euro staying in range as Draghi tones down language change

                                    Euro fails to extend gain as Draghi tried to tone down the change in language. While the decision was unanimous, Draghi emphasized that it’s just removing “explicit reference” to the chance of increasing the size of the APP again. However, firstly, ECB will keep interest rate at the current level for an extended period after the APP ends. And ECB is still keeping the option to “extend” the APP beyond September.

                                    Here are the updated economic projections:

                                    GDP

                                    • 2018 at 2.4% vs 2.3% prior
                                    • 2019 at 1.9% vs 1.9% prior
                                    • 2020 at 1.7% vs 1.7% prior

                                    Inflation

                                    • 2018 at 1.4% vs 1.4%
                                    • 2019 at 1.4% vs 1.5%
                                    • 2020 at 1.7% vs 1.7%

                                    EUR/USD fails 1.2443 so far. Draghi’s press conference script.

                                      EUR/USD tries to break 1.2443 as ECB turned less dovish in the statement. But no follow through buying seen yet.

                                      Here is Draghi’s press confernce speech

                                      US initial jobless claims rose 21k to 231k

                                        US initial jobless claims rose 21k to 231k in the weekended Mar 3. Prior week’s 210k was the lowest since 1969. Four week moving average rose 2k to 222.5k. Continuing claims dropped 65k to 1.87m in the week ended February 24.

                                        From Canada, housing starts rose to 229.7k in February, above expectation of 220k. New Housing price index rose 0.0% mom in January versus expectation of 0.1% mom. Building permits rose 5.6% mom in January versus expectation of 1.3% mom.

                                        Markets are now listening to ECB Draghi’s press conference, and await Trump’s order of steel and aluminum tariffs

                                        Euro mildly higher as ECB drops pledge to increase QE if necessary

                                          Euro jumps slightly after ECB kept interest rates unchanged at 0.00%. More importantly, ECB dropped the pledge to “increase” the size of QE if necessary. That is “If the outlook becomes less favourable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, the Governing Council stands ready to increase the asset purchase programme (APP) in terms of size and/or duration.” is omitted from from today’s statement.

                                          Below are the March 8 and January 25 statement for reference. But for now, EUR/USD is staying below 1.2443 temporary top as we await Draghi’s press conference.

                                          March 8 Statement (Today)

                                          At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases.

                                          Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, the Governing Council confirms that the net asset purchases, at the current monthly pace of €30 billion, are intended to run until the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until the Governing Council sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim. The Eurosystem will reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the asset purchase programme for an extended period of time after the end of its net asset purchases, and in any case for as long as necessary. This will contribute both to favourable liquidity conditions and to an appropriate monetary policy stance.

                                          January 25 statement

                                          At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases.

                                          Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, the Governing Council confirms that the net asset purchases, at the new monthly pace of €30 billion, are intended to run until the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until the Governing Council sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim. If the outlook becomes less favourable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, the Governing Council stands ready to increase the asset purchase programme (APP) in terms of size and/or duration. The Eurosystem will reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time after the end of its net asset purchases, and in any case for as long as necessary. This will contribute both to favourable liquidity conditions and to an appropriate monetary policy stance.