More turmoil for USD, Rex Tillerson fired by Trump

    More selling is seen in Dollar on news that US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is fired by Trump.

    Trump also tweeted:-

    “Mike Pompeo, Director of the CIA, will become our new Secretary of State. He will do a fantastic job! Thank you to Rex Tillerson for his service! Gina Haspel will become the new Director of the CIA, and the first woman so chosen. Congratulations to all!”

    Dollar selling starts as bears relieved by CPI data

      US CPI met market expectation. Dollar bears seem to be “relieved” and fresh selling seen after the release

      US CPI Jan: 0.2% mom vs exp 0.2% mom vs prior 0.5% mom

      US CPI Jan: 2.2% yoy vs exp 2.2% yoy vs prior 2.1% yoy

      US CPI core Jan: 0.2% mom vs exp 0.2% mom vs prior 0.3% mom

      US CPI core Jan: 1.8% yoy vs exp 1.8% yoy vs prior 1.8% yoy

      Full release here.

      Into US session, Yen selling stays, Euro buying emerges

        Yen is staying as the weakest currency for today and selling intensifies entering into European. Meanwhile, Euro is also showing much resilience. And buying also emerges at during the 4 hour period.

        ECB Lane: Confidence on inflation improves

          ECB Governing Council member Philip Lane:

          “There’s no concern about the current level,”

          •  “But if it moves a lot within a short time interval then you have to think about the implications.”
          • “As these factors convert into higher inflation readings, our confidence that inflation will converge to the target over the medium term improves,”
          • “Whenever net asset purchases come to an end, there will still remain considerable monetary accommodation baked into the system,”

          EU Barnier hopes to seal a transition Brexit deal this month

            EU Chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier warned UK:-

            • The EU and Britain are hoping to seal a deal this month on a transition period after Brexit, and start talks on the future relationship this spring.
            • “One cannot have at the same time the status of a third country and demand at the same time the advantages of the (European) Union,”
            • “It is time to face up to the hard facts,”

            Earlier today, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker in European Parliament on Brexit:-

            • “There is increasing urgency to negotiate this orderly withdrawal.”
            • “As the clock counts down, with one year to go, it is now time to translate speeches into treaties, to turn commitments into agreements.”
            • “It is obvious that we need further clarity from the UK if we are to reach an understanding on our future relationship.”

            OECD: Global growth to strengthen in 2018, 2019

              OECD Interim Economic Outlook: GETTING STRONGER, BUT TENSIONS ARE RISING

              The world economy will continue to strengthen in 2018 and 2019, with global GDP growth projected to rise to about 4%, from 3.7% in 2017.

              Stronger investment, the rebound in global trade and higher employment are helping to make the recovery increasingly broad-based.

              New tax reductions and spending increases in the United States and additional fiscal stimulus in Germany are key factors behind the upward revision to global growth prospects in 2018 and 2019.

              Inflation remains low, but is likely to rise modestly.

              Still-elevated risk-taking and high debt levels in many countries raise financial vulnerabilities. Monetary policy normalisation could also result in greater volatility of exchange rates and capital flows, particularly in emerging market economies.

              Medium-term growth prospects remain much weaker than prior to the financial crisis, reflecting less favourable demographic trends and a decade of sub-par investment and productivity.

              Economic policies face several challenges:

              • A gradual normalisation of monetary policy is needed, but to a varying degree across the major economies. Continued clear communication about the path to normalisation is essential to minimise the risk of financial market disruptions.
              • Fiscal policy choices should avoid being excessively pro-cyclical and be clearly focused on measures that strengthen the prospects for sustainable and more inclusive medium-term growth.
              • Structural reform efforts should be revived, seizing the opportunity of the stronger economy to help secure a more robust recovery of productivity, investment and living standards.

              Safeguarding the rules-based international trading system will help to support growth and jobs. Governments should avoid escalation and rely on global solutions to resolve excess capacity in the global steel industry.

              Handout for the press

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              EU Juncker: Increasing urgency on Brexit negotiation

                European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker in European Parliament on Brexit:-

                • “There is increasing urgency to negotiate this orderly withdrawal.”
                • “As the clock counts down, with one year to go, it is now time to translate speeches into treaties, to turn commitments into agreements.”
                • “It is obvious that we need further clarity from the UK if we are to reach an understanding on our future relationship.”

                JPY broad downside bias, NZD broad upside bias in hourly chart

                  Yen is building up broad biased downside bias in hourly chart.

                  NZD is building up broad based upside bias in hourly chart.

                  Net effect is: NZD/JPY jumping sharply to as high as 78.26 so far. 38.2% retracement of 81.55 to 75.92 is finally firmly taken out. 78.07. We’d now looking at 61.8% retracement at 79.39.

                  RBA Key Economic Indicators Snapshot

                    RBA Key Economic Indicators Snapshot

                    As at March 12, 2018

                    • Cash rate: 1.5%
                    • Economic growth: 2.4%
                    • Inflation: 1.9%
                    • Unemployment rate: 5.5%
                    • Employment growth: 3.3%
                    • Wage growth 2.1%
                    • Average weekly earnings: AUD 1192
                    • Household saving ratio: 2.7%
                    • Net foreign liabilities: 55% of GDP
                    • AUD 1 = USD 0.79
                    • China GDP growth: 6.8%
                    • G7 GDP growth: 2.3%

                    Canada PM Trudeau: No link between NAFTA and tariff exemptions

                      Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that the exemptions on Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs were not a “magical favor being done”. He pointed out that “millions of jobs on both sides of the border depend on continued smooth flow of trades.” And the tariffs would hurt both sides. He also expressed the willingness to work with the on NAFTA. But, he also emphasized that “we don’t link together the tariffs and the negotiations for NAFTA.”

                      Australia NAB business condition rose to record 21

                        Australia NAB business condition jumped 3 pts to 21 in February, hitting a record high. However, business confidence dropped 3 pts to 9.

                        Quote from the release:

                        • “The record level for the NAB Monthly Business Survey business conditions index indicates that business activity in Australia is robust. Moreover, the strength in conditions is broad based across industry groups.”
                        • “The fall in confidence may reflect the turbulence seen in international financial markets in early February, but confidence remains above average suggesting that the impact was relatively limited”.
                        • “Forward orders have been on a rising trend for several years now signalling an improved outlook for the non-mining economy.”
                        • “Capacity utilisation is trending higher which is a positive for both future investment and employment”
                        • “We expect by late 2018 the RBA will feel relaxed enough about the domestic fundamentals to cautiously start withdrawing the stimulatory policy stance it is currently running. However, it will depend heavily on the data flow and the risk is that the RBA will delay rate rises until early 2019”

                        RBNZ Spencer hailed macroprudential policy

                          RBNZ Governor Grant Spencer hailed the success of macroprudential tools in a speech to finance industry professional today. The policy infrastructure including the LVRs (loan to value restrictions). helped limit the risks of surge hour prices. It also helped keep interest low to boost inflation. And, after adopting the policy for five years, Spencer suggested a review would be run with the Treasury to consider ways to expand it. He also suggested to introduce a new committee on macroprudential policy alongside the monetary policy committee.

                          NZD Strong, CAD Weak, But… GBP is picking up.

                            Entering into US session, NZD/CAD is the biggest mover for today. However, it seems to be losing momentum. On the other hand, GBP/CAD is clearly picking up strength.

                            In particular that’s help by selloff and EUR/GBP which could now be finally heading heading to 0.88 handle.

                            Always look deeper!

                            Trump asks Ross to see EU elimination on “Tariffs and Barries” agains the US

                              Trump just tweeted regarding tariffs and trade with E: –

                              “Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross will be speaking with representatives of the European Union about eliminating the large Tariffs and Barriers they use against the U.S.A. Not fair to our farmers and manufacturers.”

                              ECB Smets: Inflation pressures could take more time to build

                                ECB Governing Council member Jan Smets

                                • “It will take somewhat more time to get to the objective than we thought earlier,”
                                • “The level of potential output may have become higher due to structural reforms and… slack may be bigger.”
                                • “It may take more than we thought and inflation pressures could take more time to build,”
                                •  “(But) it is absolutely crucial that we meet our price stability objective and not accept a level below that; the objective is what it is and we are not there yet.”
                                • “We expect exchange rate movements to correspond to fundamentals,”
                                • “It would be too early to conclude that growth is plateauing,”
                                • “Some soft indicators have been a bit weaker but the recovery is on solid footing and we are in a clear, expansionary period.”

                                BIS: Cash is still on the rise

                                  The Bank of International Settlement said in the quarterly review: –

                                  • “Some of the breathless commentary gives the impression that cash in the form of traditional notes and coins is going out of fashion fast,”
                                  • “Despite all the technological improvements in payments in recent years, the use of good old-fashioned cash is still rising in most, though not all, advanced and emerging market economies.”
                                  • “The resilience of cash as a social institution reminds us of the importance of understanding the economic functions of money, beyond just the innovations in technology,”

                                  AUD/USD losing momentum ahead of 0.7892 resistance

                                    AUD/USD is trading as one of the strongest currencies for today. But based on 4 hour heatmap, it’s starting to lost momentum.

                                    Hourly MACD also suggests that AUD/USD longs might be starting to take profit ahead of 0.7892 near term resistance. 0.7892 is seen as near term trend defining resistance. That is, as long as 0.7892 holds, the decline from 0.8135 is still in progress for another low below 0.7712. But decisive break of 0.7892 should add more credence to the case of near term reversal.

                                    ECB Coeure: Interest rates to say at “very low levels” far beyond end of QE

                                      ECB Executive Board Member Benoit Coeure said that interest rates will stay at “very low levels”, “far beyond the end of QE.

                                      He said in French radio BFM business:-

                                      • “It is very clear to us that short term interest rates, the ones that are controlled by the central bank, will remain at very low levels, far beyond the horizon of our asset purchases,”
                                      • “Inflation is not quite where we would like it to be,”
                                      • There was no discussion on a first rate hike in mid-2019

                                      Japan BSI sentiments weakened broadly in Q1

                                        Japan business sentiments weakened generally in Q1. Large all industry index dropped to 3.3, down from 6.2. Large manufacturing index dropped to 2.9, down from 9.7. Large non-manufacturing index dropped to 3.4, down from 4.5. Outlook for Q2 showed further deterioration. But large companies are expectation a rebound in Q3. Deteriorations are also seen in sentiments of small and mid sized companies for Q1.

                                        North Korea quiet on meeting with US

                                          North Korea leader Kim Jong-un is set to meet with Trump by the end on May on the topic of denuclearization. It’s reported that Kim would want to have a peace treaty with the US. But other than that, the country is so far very quiet on the topic. South Korea’s Ministry of Unification spokesman Baik Tae-hyun said today that “we have not seen nor received an official response from the North Korean regime regarding the North Korea-U.S. summit.” And, “I feel they’re approaching this matter with caution and they need time to organize their stance.”