German ifo forecasts 2.6% growth in 2018, 2.1% in 2019

    ifo Institute forecasts German economy to grow 2.6% in 2018, then slow to 2.1% in 2019. It’s head of f Economic Forecasting Timo Wollmershaeuser noted that the calculations “confirm figures from our December forecast.: However, “underlying forces have shifted somewhat.”

    In particular, forecast for household consumption expenditure was scaled by by 0.5% in 2018, because of lower than expected spending back in 2H 2017. Government spending forecast was raised by 0.5% in 2018, as new government policy will provide a stimulus. Export growth was revised up by 0.5% in 2018, thanks to upturn in Eurozone economy and US tax cuts.

    Regarding risks, “the debate over the introduction and/or increase in tariffs on transatlantic trade and the appreciation of the euro are weakening sentiment among German companies.” Also, the new coalition government is “disappointing in terms of reforming the tax and social security system.” In particular, Wollmershaeuser said that was no response to US, France and UK tax cuts.

    Fed to hike in Powell’s debut

      Fed is widely expected to raise federal funds rate by 25bps to 1.50-1.75% today. Fed fund futures are pricing in near 95% chance of that. There is no reason for Fed to give market a surprise. The main question in everybody’s mind is whether Fed will hike a total of three times this year, or four. Fed fund futures are pricing more than 80% chance of another hike in June already, and close to 60% chance of another in September. But for now, it’s only pricing less than 40% chance of the fourth in December.

      As usual with a March FOMC meeting, new economic projections will be released. Given that the Republican’s tax cuts were done, there could be upward revisions in growth. Unemployment rate forecast might be left unchanged. PCE core at 1.5% in January, is still way off Fed’s median projection of 1.9% in 2018. There is little chance of a change in that figure. Meanwhile, any slight change in the federal funds rate projection would be market moving.

      Fed’s December projections:

      The event also bears additional significance as it’s Jerome Powell’s first press conference as Fed chair. His Congressional testimony was seen by some as more hawkish and upbeat than expected. Recapping that he said “my personal outlook for the economy has strengthened since December.” And, “we’ve seen some data that will in my case add some confidence to my view that inflation is moving up to target.” Powell might maintain the tone today and indicate his confidence in continuing the tightening cycle.

      GBP finds footing as UK employment data eyed

        For now, Sterling is still trading as the second strongest major currency for the week despite yesterday’s post CPI dip. Employment data will be a main focus today. Markets expect claimant counts to dropped -3.1k in February. ILO unemployment rate is expected to stay unchanged at 4.4% in January. A key focus is on wage growth as average weekly earnings is expected to rise 2.6% 3moy in January. Still, with CPI at 2.7% yoy, wage is still playing catch up.

        Reaction to the job data could be muted though as the major focus is on tomorrow’s BoE rate decision. BoE is widely expected to keep bank rate unchanged at 0.50% and asset purchase target at GBP 435b. No updated economic projections will be delivered as they were published back in February’s Inflation Report already. Instead, eyes will be on whether BoE would turn more upbeat in the statement, given that a Brexit transition deal is already done. In addition, known hawks Michael Saunders and Ian McCafferty could come back with a vote on rate hike. All in all, focus in on gauging the chance of a May hike.

        CAD rebounds as US dropped one of the toughest protectionist demand in NAFTA talks

          Canadian Dollar rebounds strongly on news that US will drop contentious auto-content proposal in NAFTA talks. It’s seen as clearing and important road block in NAFTA renegotiation. The Loonie is trading as the strongest major currency in Asian session.

          There was a demand for vehicles made in Canada and Mexico for export to the US contain at least 50% US content. But Canada’s Globe and Mail reported that this contentious demand was dropped during NAFTA meeting in Washington last week. This is seen by some as one of the US toughest protectionist demand.

          CAD is now the strongest one as seen in heatmap for today, followed by Euro. NZD, AUD and USD are the weakest ones.

          From Action Bias chart, 6H bias turned neutral after USD/CAD hit 1.3124. And H bias turned negative with current dip through 1.305. For now, it’s more of a correction then a change in trend.

          Trump to announce tariffs on Chinese goods on Thursday, but will seek industry input before finalizing

            US President Donald Trump is set to announce the package of tariffs against Chinese goods on Thursday, a day earlier than rumored. It’s believed that the total amount of targeted goods adds up to USD 30-60b. We believe that it will be on the higher side on the range. Additionally, there will be new restrictions on Chinese investments in the US. Treasury will be directed to outline the rules regarding Chinese investments.

            But, it’s reported that the tariffs won’t take effect immediately. Instead, businesses are given a chance to comment on the list of tariffed products. The final decision will come after industry input. This is seen as an act of Trump bowing down to pressure from business leaders. Earlier this week, 45 of largest American trade groups wrote an open letter to Trump, warning Trump not to respond to unfair Chinese practices and policies by measures that will “harm U.S. companies, workers, farmers, ranchers, consumers, and investors.”

            G20 stressed importance of trade, urged further dialogue, nothing more

              G20 finance ministers and central bank governors ended the summit in Buenos Aires with a joint communique that emphasized the importance of international trade. And they urged for the need for “further dialogue and actions”. But the communique fell short of anything else to push back protectionism.

              The communique noted “International trade and investment are important engines of growth, productivity, innovation, job creation and development.” And, “we reaffirm the conclusions of our Leaders on trade at the Hamburg Summit and recognise the need for further dialogue and actions.” They pledged to work to “strengthen the contribution of trade to our economies.”

              Below is the full communique covering areas like technology, infrastructure, global financial system, cross-border capital flow, debts, international tax system and even Cryto-assets. But trade wasn’t mentioned beyond the first paragraph.

              Communiqué

              Finance ministers and central bank governors
              March 20, 2018, Buenos Aires

              The global economic outlook has continued to improve since we last met in October 2017, with the broadest synchronised global growth upsurge since 2010, and a pick-up in investment and trade. While we welcome this progress, recent market volatility despite sound fundamentals of the global economy is a reminder of risks and vulnerabilities. Downside risks persist and, over the medium term, challenges remain to raise growth and make it more inclusive. This is our moment to take action to address structural growth impediments, rebuild buffers, reduce excessive global imbalances, and mitigate risks. We discussed key risks to the outlook, including financial vulnerabilities that could be revealed with a faster than expected tightening of financial conditions and heightened economic and geopolitical tensions. We agree to continue using all policy tools to support strong, sustainable, balanced and inclusive growth. We will implement structural reforms to enhance our growth potential. Fiscal policy should be used flexibly and be growth-friendly, prioritise high quality investment, while enhancing economic and financial resilience and ensuring debt as a share of GDP is on a sustainable path. Strong fundamentals, sound policies, and a resilient international monetary system are essential to the stability of exchange rates, contributing to strong and sustainable growth and investment. Flexible exchange rates, where feasible, can serve as a shock absorber. We recognise that excessive volatility or disorderly movements in exchange rates can have adverse implications for economic and financial stability. We will refrain from competitive devaluations, and will not target our exchange rates for competitive purposes. International trade and investment are important engines of growth, productivity, innovation, job creation and development. We reaffirm the conclusions of our Leaders on trade at the Hamburg Summit and recognise the need for further dialogue and actions. We are working to strengthen the contribution of trade to our economies.

              Technology, including digitalisation, is fundamentally reshaping the global economy given its borderless and intangible nature, and its increasing ability to automate cognitive tasks. We are developing a common understanding of the nature of the changes and their potential implications. Transformative technologies are expected to bring immense economic opportunities, such as new ways of doing business, new industries, new and better jobs, and higher GDP growth and living standards. At the same time, the transition creates challenges for individuals, businesses, and governments. These include changes to labour markets, the growing importance of skills and adaptability, and the risk of increased inequality within and between countries. Policy responses, including international cooperation, are needed to harness the opportunities and ensure the benefits are shared by all. We therefore agree to develop a menu of policy options for consideration at our meeting in July.

              Infrastructure is critical to boost productivity, enhance connectivity, sustain long-term inclusive growth and provide our citizens with physical and digital access to the new economy. Despite its importance, a persistent infrastructure financing gap remains. Public financing of infrastructure is essential but mobilising additional private capital is needed to meet global infrastructure needs. To achieve this, we agree to promote the necessary conditions to help develop infrastructure as an asset class. To guide our work, we endorse the Roadmap to Infrastructure as an Asset Class which builds on the outcomes of past G20 presidencies and draws together the steps needed to achieve our ambition. The Roadmap identifies seven work streams, including regulatory frameworks and capital markets, as well as quality infrastructure. In 2018, our focus under the Roadmap will be to improve project preparation, move towards greater standardisation of contracts and infrastructure financing instruments, address data gaps, and improve risk mitigation, taking into account country-specific conditions. We look forward to continuing and deepening the dialogue with the private sector.

              We note the report of the Independent Board of the Global Infrastructure Hub recommending renewal of its mandate. We call for coordination among current initiatives sponsored by MDBs and others to avoid duplication of efforts.

              We reaffirm our commitment to further strengthening the global financial safety net with a strong, quota-based, and adequately resourced IMF at its centre. We are committed to concluding the 15th General Review of Quotas and agreeing on a new quota formula as a basis for a realignment of quota shares to result in increased shares for dynamic economies in line with their relative positions in the world economy and hence likely in the share of emerging market and developing countries as a whole, while protecting the voice and representation of the poorest members by the Spring Meetings of 2019 and no later than the Annual Meetings of 2019.

              Cross-border capital flows offer significant benefits, but their size and volatility may pose policy challenges. We will continue to monitor capital flows and refine our understanding of the tools to improve the resilience of the international monetary system. We recognise the importance of macroprudential policies in limiting systemic risk. We continue to deepen our understanding of capital flow management measures and the conditions under which they might be effective, taking into account country-specific circumstances. We are looking forward to further work by the IMF, based on the IMF Institutional View on Capital Flow Management, that will help inform country actions and to the results of the Review of the OECD Code of Liberalisation of Capital Movement.

              Rising debt levels in Low Income Countries (LICs) have led to concerns about debt vulnerabilities in these economies. We agree that building capacity in public financial management, strengthening domestic policy frameworks, and enhancing information sharing could help avoid new episodes of debt distress in LICs. We call for greater transparency, both on the side of debtors and creditors. We reaffirm our support to the ongoing work of the Paris Club, as the principal international forum for restructuring official bilateral debt, towards the broader inclusion of emerging creditors. We support the provision of technical assistance by the IMF and the World Bank Group (WBG) in debt recording and reporting in LICs, where needed, and look forward to the work of these institutions on debt transparency.

              The global financial system must remain open, resilient and supportive of growth and grounded in agreed international standards. We will continue to closely monitor and, if necessary, address emerging risks and vulnerabilities in the financial system. We welcome the finalisation of Basel III, which completes main elements of the post crisis reforms. We remain committed to the full, timely and consistent implementation and finalisation of the reforms and their evaluation to help identify and address any material unintended consequences and ensure that the reforms accomplish their objectives. We look forward to the FSB-led evaluation of the reforms, including their effects on the financing of infrastructure investment and on incentives for central clearing of over-the-counter derivatives. We will continue to address the decline in correspondent banking relationships.

              We acknowledge that technological innovation, including that underlying crypto-assets, has the potential to improve the efficiency and inclusiveness of the financial system and the economy more broadly. Crypto-assets do, however, raise issues with respect to consumer and investor protection, market integrity, tax evasion, money laundering and terrorist financing. Crypto-assets lack the key attributes of sovereign currencies. At some point they could have financial stability implications. We commit to implement the FATF standards as they apply to crypto-assets, look forward to the FATF review of those standards, and call on the FATF to advance global implementation. We call on international standard-setting bodies (SSBs) to continue their monitoring of crypto-assets and their risks, according to their mandates, and assess multilateral responses as needed.

              We will continue our work for a globally fair and modern international tax system and welcome international cooperation and pro-growth tax policies. We remain committed to the implementation of the Base Erosion and Profit Shifting package and welcome progress to date. The impacts of the digitalisation of the economy on the international tax system remain key outstanding issues. We welcome the OECD interim report analysing the impact of the digitalisation of the economy on the international tax system. We are committed to work together to seek a consensus-based solution by 2020, with an update in 2019.

              We have made substantial progress on tax transparency. Further steps to implement transparency standards and requirements for the exchange of information for tax purposes will take place this year. Jurisdictions scheduled to commence automatic exchange of financial account information for tax purposes in 2018 should ensure that all necessary steps are taken to meet this timeline. We call on all jurisdictions to sign and ratify the multilateral Convention on Mutual Administrative Assistance in Tax Matters. We look forward to the OECD’s recommendations on how to further strengthen the criteria for assessing jurisdictions compliance with internationally agreed tax transparency standards. Defensive measures will be considered against listed jurisdictions. We continue to support assistance to developing countries to build their tax capacity. We welcome the first conference of the Platform for Collaboration on Tax and the efforts undertaken to help developing countries implement the new international tax standards. We also encourage countries to enhance tax certainty.

              We commit to step up our fight against terrorist financing, money laundering and proliferation financing. We call for the full, effective and swift implementation of the FATF standards worldwide. We reaffirm our support for the FATF, as the global anti money laundering and counter terrorist financing standard-setting body, to further strengthen its institutional basis, governance and capacity. We call on FATF to enhance its efforts to counter proliferation financing.

              Euro and Sterling post data selloff accelerate as delayed reaction

                Euro and Sterling enter US session as the weakest ones. Economic data from Eurozone and UK missed expectation. But the selloffs accelerate as delayed reactions. Aussie, on the other hand, picks up some strength togther with Dollar, with help from selloff in EUR/AUD.

                For the week, Sterling is still the strongest one so far. But Euro is turning mixed.

                New BoJ deputies Wakatabe and Amamiya sound cautious in inaugural press conference

                  The two new BoJ Deputy Governors spoke in the inaugural news conference today.

                  Masazumi Wakatabe said that BoJ sounded cautious as he said BoJ should avoid premature shift in monetary policy. Also, in his view, the central bank shouldn’t hesitate to ease monetary policy further if needed. Nonetheless, she acknowledged that various economic data already showed the positive impacts of current and past ultra loose policy.

                  Masayoshi Amamiya, also emphasized the importance to continue with powerful monetary easy, for achieving improvements in the output gap. He acknowledged that Japan is no longer in deflation. But BoJ hasn’t meet its 2% inflation target yet.

                  Euro dips as German ZEW indicates “Economic Outlook Worsens Considerably”

                    Euro dips after much weaker than expected sentiment data. German ZEW economic sentiment dropped to 5.1 in March, down from 17.8, below expectation of 13.0. Current situation gauge dropped to 90.7, down from 92.3, above expectation of 90.0. Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment also dropped sharply to 13.4, down from 29.3, missed expectation of 28.1.

                    ZEW titled the release as “Economic Outlook Worsens Considerably” which is an indication of how bad things turned. ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach noted that “concerns over a US-led global trade conflict have made the experts more cautious in their prognoses. The strong euro is also hampering the economic outlook for Germany, a nation reliant on exports.” But he added that “combined with the experts’ continued positive assessment of the current situation, however, the outlook is still largely positive.”

                    While EUR/USD drops notable after the release, there is no change in it’s mildly bullish outlook. That is, price actions from 1.2445 are viewed as a corrective pattern. It should have completed with three waves down to 1.2257 already. Or in a worse scenario, it’s extending as a five wave triangle pattern. In either case, further rise is expected soon through 1.2445 to real key resistance at 1.2555.

                    UK CPI slowed to 2.7% yoy, missed expectation. GBP dips… shallowly

                      Pound dips mildly after disappoint inflation data but loss is limited. In particular, headline CPI slowed to 2.7% yoy in February, down from 3.0% yoy and missed expectation of 2.8% yoy. The reading doesn’t give any added pressure for BoE to rate interest rate in May. Nonetheless, CPI stays above the mid-point of 2-3% target range. BoE board members should still view the Brexit transition deal as a relief to businesses. And investments could come back with, at least, part of the uncertainties cleared. Know hawks like Michael Saunders and Ian McCafferty could still start pushing for rate hike during this week’s meeting. Hence, there is no sustainable selloff in the pound, just mild retreat.

                      Here is the list of inflation data:

                      • CPI Feb: 0.4% mom vs exp 0.5% mom vs prior -0.5% mom
                      • CPI Feb: 2.7% yoy vs exp 2.8% yoy vsprior 3.0% yoy
                      • CPI Core Feb: 2.4% yoy vs exp 2.5% yoy vs prior 2.7% yoy
                      • RPI Feb: 0.8% mom vs exp 0.8% mom vs prior -0.8% mom
                      • PPI Input Feb: -1.1% mom vs exp -0.9% vs prior 0.7% mom
                      • PPI Input Feb: 3.4% yoy vs exp 3.8% yoy vs prior 4.7% yoy
                      • PPI Output Feb: 0.0% mom vs exp 0.1% mom vs prior 0.1% mom
                      • PPI Output Feb: 2.6% yoy vs exp 2.7% yoy vs prior 2.8% yoy
                      • PPI Output Core Feb: 0.2% mom vs exp 0.2% mom vs prior 0.3% mom
                      • PPI Output Core Feb: 2.4% vs exp 2.4% yoy vs prior 2.2% yoy

                      GBP/USD is staying comfortably above 55H EMA despite the post CPI dip. Recent rise is still on course through 1.4087 to 1.4144 resistance.

                      Swiss SECO revised up growth and inflation forecasts, warned of escalation to trade war

                        In this Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs report published today, the government painted a brighter picture of the economy. Growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 were both revised up. Also, 2018 inflation forecast was revised notably higher. The report titled Economy continues dynamic recovery noted that “the economy to continue its dynamic recovery and anticipates strong GDP growth of 2.4% in 2018. The buoyant international economy is supporting foreign trade, while a favourable investment climate is stimulating domestic demand.”

                        Here are the latest projections

                        • 2018 GDP forecast at 2.4%, revised UP from prior forecast at 2.3%.
                        • 2019 GDP forecast at 2.0%, revised UP from prior forecast at 1.9%.
                        • 2018 CPI forecast at 0.6%, revised notably up from prior forecast at 0.3%
                        • 2019 CPI forecast at 0.7%, unchanged from prior forecast at 0.7%

                        The tone of the report was very upbeat as it said “Switzerland’s economy has not looked this healthy since the minimum euro exchange rate was discontinued in early 2015. The upturn gathered increasing momentum and became more broad-based in the second half of 2017.”

                        Also, “the healthy global economy is boosting international demand for Swiss products and therefore driving foreign trade.” And, “the Expert Group predicts that foreign trade will provide a significant boost to growth in 2018 especially but also in 2019.” Regarding the job market, the reported noted that unemployment has been in ” gradual decline since mid-2016, while employment also stepped up in the second half of 2017.”

                        Regarding economic risks, SECO saw short-term positive and negative risks are “balanced”. Upturn in global economy could help depreciate the Swiss Franc further and “give the Swiss economy a further boost”. But warned that “protectionist measures recently announced in the US pose negative risks for the global economy.” And, “any escalation to a trade war between the major economic zones would have a considerable dampening effect in the medium-term.”

                        Besides, the report pointed to recent Italian election as “a certain political uncertainty remains on the international stage.” Unclear Brexit terms and uncertainties in Switzerland’s relationship with the EU are other risks mentioned. Domestically, there is risk of sharp correction in construction sector.

                        UK CPI release given more significance after Brexit transition deal

                          According to a Bloomberg survey, majority of economists expected BoE to vote 9-0 to keep interest rate unchanged at 0.50% later this week on Thursday. And, 54% of economists expected BoE to hike interest rate in May. That’s a slight adjustment from 51% at prior survey. However, the data was taken as of March 19. And it’s unsure how much regarding the Brexit transition deal was taken into consideration. And that could only be reflected in the next survey.

                          The BoE rate decision this Thursday becomes lively as the transition deal is done. UK CPI data to be released today will be the first key factor. Headline CPI is expected to slow from 3.0% yoy to 2.8% yoy in February. Core CPI is expected to slow from 2.7% yoy to 2.5% yoy.

                          On the one hand, the deal should give BoE policymakers some comfort to restart lifting interest rate from the current ultra low level at 0.50%. On the other hand, any upside surprise in today’s inflation data would indeed give some pressure for BoE to act again.

                          And for the meeting, ahead, while BoE is still expected to stand pat, the statement could turn more relaxed and optimistic given that the Brexit picture is slightly clearer. And more importantly hawks like Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders might come back to vote for rate hike.

                          Little surprise from RBA minutes

                            The RBA minutes for the March contained little surprise. Policymakers remained concerned about the soft inflation outlook, noting faster wage growth is needed to assure a stronger and more sustainable improvement on inflation. As suggested in the minutes, “employment had grown strongly and the unemployment rate had fallen over the preceding year. However, the improvement in overall conditions had not yet translated into a definitive pick-up in wages growth, which remained low”. It added that “further progress on these goals [reducing the unemployment rate and bringing inflation closer to target] was expected over the period ahead, but this process was likely to be gradual”.

                            Trump to announce USD 60b tariff against China on Friday, China Premier Li pledges to open market

                              It’s known that Trump is preparing to impose a package of USD 60b in tariffs against China. It’s reported that the package would apply to over 100 products. These products are believed by Trump to use trade secretes stolen from US companies, or forced to hand over in exchange for market access. The theme appears to be consistent with Section 301 intellectual property theft investigation and actions. But no one knows how relevant is that until there a a published list of products. Trump is planning to announce the action by Friday.

                              China Premier Li Keqiang said today after a press conference that there is no forced transfer of technology. But he pledged that China will better protect intellectually property. Also, China will further open up the economy, lower import tariffs and allow foreign and domestic companies to compete on equal ground. China commerce ministry said that there is WTO ruling against tariffs directed only at them. And it urged the US to correct the abuse of trade measures. But the MOFCOM didn’t comment directly on the reported USD 60b tariff package.

                              EU Moscovici at G20: We must absolutely avoid trade wars

                                European Economics Commissioner Pierre Moscovici he’s “cautiously optimistic” that there could be an agreement on the language on trade out of G20 meeting. And he hoped that the G20 communique will show that “how that protectionism is not the solution and we must absolutely avoid that.” He warned that “the first risk is the risk of inward looking policies and protectionism.”

                                Regarding US requests to omit the term “multilateral” from there statement, Moscovici blasted that “avoiding multilateralism in a multilateral organization makes no sense.” He further added that “a trade war would be stupid. There would be damage on both sides of the Atlantic.” Moscovici also reiterated that EU is prepared for counter-measures to US if it’s not exempted from the steel and aluminum tariffs. Moscovici noted “but we think the best is to avoid a scale up” because “we must absolutely avoid trade wars.”

                                On the other hand, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin emphasized in an email statement that “The trip to the G-20 will focus on advancing the Trump administration’s global economic agenda to level the playing field for U.S. companies and workers.”

                                ECB Mersch: Prerequisites there for inflation, but easy policy still needed

                                  ECB Executive Board member Yves Mersch sounded upbeat on his comments yesterday. He said that “all prerequisites for a sustainable adjustment of inflation to our objective are given.”

                                  The central bank could continue to cut down its asset purchases gradually as inflation outlook improves. He’s concerned that there could be excessive market reactions if the asset purchases are reduced too quickly. And that would undo ECB’s hard work in the past few years.

                                  Overall, for the time being, easy monetary policy is still needed to support inflation.

                                  AUD in strong near term downisde bias

                                    While JPY is the worst performer this week so far, AUD is doing much better. Aussie is trading down versus all for the week except versus Dollar and Yen.

                                    Looking at the Action Bias charts, note that 6H bias is all red downside in the last 9 bars of AUD/JPY. It’s clear that it’s in a near term downside momentum with solid momentum. The blue upside bars in hourly chart merely represents correction. And the decline is set to return after the correction completes.

                                    Similarly, GBP/AUD had strong upside momentum after the range breakout as seen in 6H bias chart. The neutral bias in H bias chart mere indicates it’s in consolidation. The absence of red downside bar in H bias chart suggests that all consolidations were shallow and upside momentum has been strong.

                                    DOW, NASDAQ dived. FTSE downside breakout on GBP rally

                                      US stock markets closed down sharply overnight as the selloff in Facebook spread to techs and then other sectors. In the background there is also concerns of Trump’s trade war against China. Down dropped -1.35% to 24610.91 and S&P 500 dropped -1.42% to 2712.92. NASDAQ suffered the biggest damage by losing -1.84% to 7344.24. Nikkei opened lower and is down -140 at time of writing. HK HSI is down -0.55%.

                                      Even though DOW managed to pare back some loss towards the end of the session, the break of 24668.83 support now put the bears in control. For the near term, deeper fall is expected to 24217.76, or slightly further to 23.6% retracement of 26616.71 to 23360.29 at 24128.80. Overall, it’s bounded in corrective pattern from 26616.71 and price actions inside this ranging pattern is rather hard to predict. We’ll keep an eye on downside momentum to gauge the chance of a test on 23360.29.

                                      NASDAQ’s fall from last week’s record high at 7637.27 accelerated after taking out 55H EMA firmly. But it’s now trying to draw support from 38.2% retracement of 6630.67 to 7637.27 at 7252.74. Initial support might be seen to bring recovery. But sustained break of 55 H EMA (now at 7445.43) is needed to confirm completion of the fall. Otherwise, based on current momentum, deeper fall is in favor back to 61.8% retracement at 7051.19.

                                      Across the Atlantic, FTSE also tumbled sharply yesterday. But that’s mainly due to Sterling’s sharp rally following news of Brexit transition deal. The break of 7062.13 now confirms resumption of whole fall from 7792.56. FTSE is now set to take on 38.2% retracement of 5499.50 to 7792.56 at 6916.61. Reaction to this medium te4rm fibonacci level could hinge on whether GBP/USD will break above 1.4345 key resistance.

                                      DOW heading for downside breakout as selling intensifies

                                        Last Friday, we mentioned that DOW should be close to a triangle breakout point. Now, it seems like traders have made up their mind for downside move. 24668.83 will now be the key focus. Break will resume the fall from 25449.15. Break should at least send the index to 23.6% retracement of 26616.71 to 23360.29 at 24128.80. That’s slightly below 24217.76 resistance. It remains to be seen if the correction from 26616.71 will extend beyond 23360.29. And the momentum of the next move will be closely watched.

                                        BoJ Kuroda: Free trade is important, protectionism won’t spread globally

                                          BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said ahead of G20 finance head meeting:-

                                          • “There is a solid understanding among the global community that free trade is important”
                                          • “I don’t think protectionism will spread globally”

                                          Now, let’s see how many “like minded” people are there in the meeting.