UK PMI services finalized at 48.7 in Jan, downside remained relatively shallow

    UK PMI Services was finalized at 48.7 in January, down from December’s 49.9, fastest contraction since January 2021. PMI Composite was finalized at 48.5, down from prior month’s 49.0, in contraction for the sixth straight months.

    Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence:

    “January data pointed to the weakest service sector performance for two years as cutbacks to business and consumer spending resulted in a fourth consecutively monthly reduction in output levels. The latest survey illustrates that the UK economy risks falling into recession as labour shortages, industrial disputes and higher interest rates take their toll on activity.

    “However, the downturn in service sector output remained relatively shallow at the start of 2023. Encouragingly, new order volumes moved closer to stabilisation and export sales picked up in January, which contributed to a marginal upturn in overall employment numbers.”

    Full release here.

    Bundesbank: Germany economic output decreased in Q1

      In the monthly report, Bundesbank said Germany economic output decreased in Q1. Stricter and longer-lasting restrictions increased the losses in many service sectors.

      Industrial production fell in February as “supply bottlenecks for preliminary products must have played an important role in the decline.” Automotive industry was “particularly hard hit”. However, there was no renewed demand problem, as incoming orders “rose significantly again” in February, and have now “recovered considerably from the slump in the previous year”.

      Full release here.

      NASDAQ rejected by 14175 resistance, Yen rebounds as stocks pull back

        Yen rebounds strong in US morning as pull back in stocks intensify. In particular, NASDAQ appears to be rejected solidly by 14175.11 resistance. It’s down around -1.3% at the time of writing. The development suggests that consolidation pattern from 14175.11 is extending with another falling leg. NASDAQ could be heading back to 55 day EMA (now at 13429) and below. We’d see if such development could help push for a deeper pull back in Yen crosses.

        US initial jobless claims fall to 231k, vs exp 234k

          US initial jobless claims fell -2k to 231k in the week ending August 24, slightly below expectation of 234k. Four-week moving average of initial claims fell -5k to 232k.

          Continuing claims rose 13k to 1868k in the week ending August 17. Four-week moving average of continuing claims fell -250 to 1863k.

          Full US jobless claims release here.

          ECB Lagarde: Second arm of the V a little bit more shaky

            ECB President Christine Lagarde said Europe’s recovery is ” incomplete, uncertain, uneven.” Policymakers now “fear that “the containment measures that have to be taken by authorities will have an impact on this recovery”. So, instead for a V-shape rebound, “we fear that it might have that second arm of the V a little bit more shaky.”

            Lagarde also said ECB is “very attentive” to exchange rate developments. But she reiterated that ECB does not target the Euro exchange rate.

            Fed Bullard: Not much of an imperative for a new fiscal package

              St Louis Fed President James Bullard said there’s not much of an “imperative” about a new fiscal package now.”It seems like, at least in some broad macroeconomic type of calculation, we have enough resources to cover this,” he said in a Bloomberg interview.

              “We might be able to sustain a recovery through this,” he said. “I’m hopeful we still have enough in the pipeline to push us through, get the growth going in the second half of the year. That certainly seems to be what’s happening in the third quarter. I think that will continue in the fourth quarter and the first part of next year.”

              Into US session: Euro leads Sterling and Franc lower, Yen mixed on JGB yield fall

                Entering into US session, Euro leads European majors broadly lower today. Weak PMIs and slowdown worry is a factor weighing on Euro. Additionally, in the background, Italy’s budget concern remains. The key officials of the populist government appear not backing from on the 2.4% deficit target for 2019, despite EU’s request to amend. Sterling is trading as the second weakest on never-ending Brexit worries. Swiss Franc is dragged down but the other two. On the other hand, Australia, US and Canadian Dollar are the strongest ones. Easing risk aversion is a key factor keep these currencies buoyed. Yen is mixed, partly because risk aversion eased, and partly due to the sharp fall in JGB yield.

                Technically, EUR/USD has taken out 1.1431 support to resume the fall from 1.1814, and 1.1300 low is next target. EUR/CHF’s break of 1.1392 minor support argues that recent rebound from 1.1173 has completed and deeper fall would be seen back to this low. GBP/USD also breaks 1.2921 and should be heading to 1.2661/2784 support zone. USD/CHF also breaches 0.9980 to extend recent rise fro 1.0067 key resistance.

                In European markets, at the time of writing:

                • FTSE is up 1.01% at 7.025.50
                • DAX is up 0.81% at 11365.23
                • CAC is up 1.13% at 5023.87
                • German 10 year yield is back up 0.0022 at 0.414, trying to defend 0.4 handle
                • Italian 10 year yield is down -0.013 at 3.567
                • Gold is back below 1230.

                Earlier in Asia:

                • Nikkei closed up 0.37% at 22091.18
                • Singapore Strait Times up 0.02% at 3032.08
                • China Shanghai SSE up 0.33% at 2603.30, reclaimed 2600
                • But Hong Kong HSI lost -0.38% to 25249.78
                • 10 year JGB yield dropped quite notably by -0.0151 to 0.135

                BoJ Kuroda: We’re beginning to see the light at the end of the pandemic tunnel

                  In a speech, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said “we are beginning to see the light at the end of this pandemic tunnel, but the light does not clearly reveal the shape of the society and economy we are approaching”.

                  “Given the considerable uncertainty we face, it is only natural that we will have different views on the relative importance of the issues involved and the direction our discussions should take.”

                  For the time being, we do not have to agree on all the details; the important thing is for participants from central banks, international institutions, and academia to present their views and share their ideas.

                  Full speech here.

                  UK Industrial production 1.3%, 1.6% yoy; Manufacturing production 0.1% mom, 2.7% yoy

                    European session data update:

                    UK visible trade balance (GBP) Jan: -12.3b vs exp -12.0b vs prior -13.6b

                    UK industrial production Jan: 1.3% mom vs exp 1.5% mom vs prior -1.3% mom

                    UK industrial production Jan: 1.6% yoy vs exp 1.8% yoy vs prior 0.0% yoy

                    UK manufacturing production Jan: 0.1% mom vs exp 0.2% mom vs prior 0.3% mom

                    UK manufacturing production Jan: 2.7% yoy vs exp 2.8% yoy vs prior 1.5% yoy

                    UK construction output Jan: -3/4% mom vs exp -0.5% mom vs prior 1.6% mom

                    German trade balance Jan: 21.3b vs exp 21.1b vs prior 2.14b

                    German industrial production -0.1% mom vs exp 0.6% mom vs prior -0.6% mom

                    Dollar pares some gain as traders turn cautious ahead NFP. AUD, NZD, CAD are the strongest ones. JPY and GBP the weakest.

                    Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator rose 2.7 pts to 90.4 in Dec

                      Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator rose 2.7 pts to 90.4 in December. Employment Expectation Indicator rose 1.4 pts to 88.3. Amongst the largest euro-area economies, the ESI increased significantly in Italy (+6.8), Spain (+3.3) and, to a lesser extent, in the Netherlands (+2.5) and France (+2.1), while it remained broadly unchanged in Germany (+0.1).

                      Looking at some details, industrial confidence rose from -10.1 to -7.2. Services confidence dropped from -17.1 to -17.4. Consumer confidence rose from -17.6 to -13.9. Retail trade confidence rose from -12.7 to -13.1. Construction confidence dropped from -9.3 to -7.9.

                      Full release here.

                      Japan industrial production rose record 8.9% mom in Jun, recovery to continue

                        Japan industrial production rose strongly by 8.9% mom in June, well above expectation of 3.7% mom. That’s also the biggest monthly rise since data become available in 2013. Car production jumped 14.0% mom thanks to easing of lockdowns in Shanghai of China. Manufacturers surveyed by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) expected output to extend its recovery by 3.8% in July and 6.0% in August.

                        Also released, retail sales rose 1.5% yoy in June, below expectation of 2.8% yoy. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 2.6% in June. Housing starts dropped -2.2% yoy in June, versus expectation of -1.2% yoy. Consumer confidence dropped from 32.1 to 30.2 in July, below expectation of 33.0.

                        Brexit: No article 50 extension request, plan B to be voted on Jan 29

                          UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s spokesman said to that that she has not raised the idea of extending Article 50 beyond March 29. And the spokesman also noted that “It is not something we have raised with the EU or suggested we wish to do”. On the other hand, European Commission spokesman Margaritis Schinas also said “We have not received such a request from the UK for an extension”. And, “should there be a UK request to extend, this will be decided unanimously by the 27 and of course the request will have to set out the reasons for such an extension,”

                          May is expected to “table an amendable motion and to make a statement about the way forward” in the coming Monday. The Conservative Party’s leader in the House of Commons Andrea Leadsom told the parliament today that “A full day’s debate on the motion will take place on Tuesday 29 January, subject to the agreement of the house.”

                          Regarding the possibility of a second referendum, opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said “If a second referendum takes place, then obviously the party will decide what role we will play in that … but I can’t really go along with the idea that it should simply be a re-run of what happened in 2016”. And, “there has to be a discussion about the options that we put forward,”

                          Fed Powell: A long way to go to bring inflation down to 2%

                            In a speech today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell underscored the ongoing battle with inflation, asserting, “Inflation pressures continue to run high, and the process of getting inflation back down to 2 percent has a long way to go.”

                            He added that “a strong majority of Committee participants expect that it will be appropriate to raise interest rates two or more times by the end of the year,” referring to the latest dot plot.

                            Powell painted a mixed picture of the U.S. economy. He noted that “recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a modest pace.” He also pointed to the effects of higher interest rates and slower output growth on business fixed investment.

                            His comments also highlight the persistent tightness in the labor market. “Over the past three months, payroll job gains have been robust,” Powell said, adding that “labor demand still substantially exceeds the supply of available workers.” Nevertheless, he also observed “some easing in nominal wage growth, and declining vacancies.”

                            Full speech of Fed Powell here.

                            Germany ZEW economic sentiment rose to -8.5, but current situation tumbles very sharply

                              Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment rose slightly from -10.7 to -8.5 in May, above expectation of -14.7. Current Situation index, however, fell “very sharply” from -34.8 to -56.5, much worse than expectation of -40.

                              “The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment shows a slight improvement, but it remains in negative territory. This means that experts do not anticipate an improvement in the economic situation during the second half of the year. Particularly, sectors focused on exports are likely to perform poorly due to a weak global economy. However, the current recession is generally not considered particularly alarming,” comments ZEW President Achim Wambach.

                              Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment dropped from -9.4 to -10.0, above expectation of -13.1. Current Situation index dropped from -14.4 to -41.9.

                              Eurozone balance for short-term interest rates stands at 72.3, indicating anticipated rate hikes. On the other hand, balance for short-term interest rates for the US stands at 16.6, indicating no change in interest rates.

                              Full Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment release here.

                              Gold surges to 1680 on coronavirus fears, 1713 next target

                                Gold surges to as high as 1680.74 today on concerns of global coronavirus outbreak. 61.8% projection of 1445.59 to 1611.37 at 1547.49 at 1649.94 was taken out with ease. There is no sign of topping yet and near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1611.37 resistance turned support holds. Next near term target is 100% projection at 1713.27.

                                In the bigger picture, the current upside acceleration suggests that up trend from 1046.37 (2015 low) might be heading to retest 1920.70 (2011 high). This will be the favored case as long as 1445.39 medium term support holds.

                                ECB Accounts: Support from sustained pace of net PEPP purchases deemed essential

                                  In the accounts of ECB’s September 8-9 meeting, Governing Council members concurred with the assessment that “an accommodative monetary policy stance remained”. Also, “policy support from a sustained pace of net purchases under the PEPP, along with the other instruments and the recalibrated forward guidance, was deemed essential”.

                                  Financing conditions had “had remained favourable or had loosened further” since June, and was “visible across a broad spectrum of indicators”. Inflation outlook had a “significant improvement over the course of the year”. However, the near-term increase in inflation was “largely driven by temporary factors that would fade in the medium term and not call for policy tightening.”

                                  Regarding the reduction in PEPP purchase pace in Q4, on the one hand, it was argued that “a symmetric application of the PEPP framework would call for a more substantial reduction in the pace of purchases”. On the other hand, “reference was made to the recent repricing in nominal bond yields, which called for a prudent reduction in the pace of purchases”.

                                  Also, it’s noted that “markets were already expecting an end to net asset purchases under the PEPP by March 2022”, but such expectation was “not showing a significant impact on financing conditions”.

                                  Overall, all members agreed to “moderately scale down the pace of purchases under the PEPP”.

                                  Full accounts here.

                                  US 10-yr yield in another rally attempt after defending 55 day EMA

                                    While S&P 500 and NASDAQ continued to make record highs overnight, it’s the development in treasury yields that’s worth more a mention. 10-year yield hit as high as 0.716, then pared back some gains to close at 0.682, up 0.036. It’s now trading above 0.71 handle in Asian session.

                                    Unlike what happened after June’s spike, TNX is holding on to 55 day EMA this time, suggesting some resilience there. Focus is back on 0.727 resistance. Firm break there will firstly resume the rebound from 0.504. Secondly, that will suggest that the triangle pattern form 1.266 has completed. Stronger rise would then be seen back towards June’s high at 0.957. That could give Dollar a lift for the overdue corrective rebound. The next move would very much depends on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jacksonhole speech.

                                    Into US session: Sterling recovers from GDP blip, Euro and Dollar firm too

                                      Entering into US session, Sterling is trading as the strongest one for today so far. Weaker than expected UK GDP triggered very brief retreat in the Pound. And Sterling quickly find its footing on Brexit optimism again. At the time of writing, Euro is the second strongest as Italian yield drops for another day. The selling climax in Italian bonds could have passed the climax for the near, possibly until credit agency rating actions. Dollar trades mildly high as consolidative price actions extend. Yen is the weakest one as sentiments stabilized and turned mixed. Kiwi is the second weakest, followed by Loonie.

                                      In Europe, CAC leads the way down by -0.71%, DAX is down -0.64% and FTSE is down -0.05%. Italian 10 year yield is dropping -0.0361 at 3.475. German 10 year bund yield is up 0.0049 at 0.556. German-Italian spread is no back below 300. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.16%, Hong Kong HSI rose 0.08%, China Shanghai SSE rose 0.18%. But Singapore Strait Times dropped -1.11%. 10 year JGB yield dropped -0.0065 to 0.156, still way above BoJ’s allowed band of -0.1 to 0.1%.

                                      UK PMI manufacturing dropped to 17 month low, GBP/USD breaks 1.3711 key support

                                        GBP/USD breaks 1.3711 key support today, partly due to USD’s broad based rally, partly due to another data miss. The development suggests that GBP/USD’s medium term rally from 1.1946 has completed and the trend is reversing.

                                        UK PMI manufacturing dropped to 53.9 in April, down from 55.1, below expectation of 54.8. That’s also the lowest level in 17 months.

                                        Comments from Rob Dobson, Director at IHS Markit:

                                        “The start of the second quarter saw the UK manufacturing sector lose further steam. The headline PMI dipped to a 17-month low as growth of production, new business and employment all slowed.

                                        “While adverse weather was partly to blame in February and March, there are no excuses for April’s disappointing performance, making the chances of a near term hike in interest rates by the Bank of England look increasingly remote.

                                        “On this footing, the sector is unlikely to see any improvement on the near-stagnant performance signalled by the opening quarter’s GDP numbers.

                                        “Looking ahead, the trend in manufacturing production is likely to remain subdued. Weak demand meant firms are seeing backlogs of work fall and stocks of unsold goods rise, limiting the need for output to rise in May. Business optimism has also dipped to a five-month low as concerns about Brexit, trade barriers and the overall economic climate remained widespread.”

                                        Full release here

                                        Also from UK, mortgage approvals dropped to 62.9k in March, down from 63.8k, missed expectation of 63.0k. M4 money supply dropped -1.4% mom in March, below expectation of 0.2% mom.

                                        France PMI manufacturing dropped to 51 in Jun, services to 54.4

                                          France PMI Manufacturing dropped sharply from 54.6 to 51.0 in June, well below expectation of 53.8. That’s the lowest level in 19 months. PMI Services dropped from 58.3 to 54.4, below expectation of 57.5, lowest in 5 months. PMI Composite dropped from 57.0 to 52.8, also a 5-month low.

                                          Joe Hayes, Senior Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

                                          “France endured a particularly sharp slowdown in growth during June, as well as a further bifurcation between the manufacturing and services economies. Nonetheless, trends deteriorated in a broad-based fashion over the month as high inflation begins to bite harder. Overall growth was at its slowest since the Omicron disruption was at its peak in January. Barring this though, the ‘flash’ PMI for June is at its lowest level since April 2021.

                                          “While a loss of momentum was to be expected as the resumption of economic activities post-lockdown boosted growth, the slowdown has been aggravated by substantial price pressures. This has been particularly aggressive in the manufacturing sector, where output and new orders both declined strongly and for the first time since October last year, serving as a worrying sign for what could be to come for the service sector.

                                          “The slowing economic trend in France is also compounded by a fresh bout of political uncertainty due to the hung parliament result in the national elections. Business confidence slid to a 19-month low in June. Overall, June ‘flash’ PMI data add to tangible recession risks for France.”

                                          Full release here.