Eurozone PMI composite finalized at 54.4, expansion looking increasingly uneven

    Eurozone PMI services was finalized at 54.4 in August, unrevised, up from July’s 54.2. PMI composite was revised up to 54.5, up from July’s 54.3. Among the countries, Ireland PMI composite hit 7-month high of 58.4. German PMI composite hit 6-month high at 55.6. However, Italy PMI composite hit 22-month low at 51.7.

    Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

    “The Eurozone PMI shows the recent run of robust growth of business activity, new orders and employment extending into August. However, the expansion is looking increasingly uneven and the business mood has become more unsettled during the summer.

    “The survey data for the third quarter so far suggest the single currency area is on course to at least match the 0.4% expansion of GDP seen in the second quarter, yet the downturn in optimism raises questions over whether this pace of growth can be sustained into the fourth quarter.

    “Business expectations about activity levels in the year ahead dropped to the lowest for almost two years amid growing concerns about the impact of trade wars and heightened political uncertainty.

    “Growth also looks worryingly unbalanced. Although all of the largest euro countries have seen growth moderate so far this year, solid expansion is still being signalled for Germany and, to a lesser extent, France.

    “But Italy saw growth slow sharply in August to suggest the region’s third largest economy on course for its weakest expansion for nearly two years, while in Spain the third quarter could be the worst for almost five years, barring a noticeable pick of business activity during September.

    “Price trends are also varied across the region, ranging from near-record inflation in Germany to falling prices in Italy, serving as a reminder that deflationary pressures, it appears, have not completely disappeared from the euro area.”

    Full release here.

    UK NIESR: Energy price guarantees to drive GDP growth higher in Q4

      NIESR said the -0.3% contraction in UK GDP in August “possibly signalling the beginning of an economic recession”. Given that September PMI pointed to further decrease in the manufacturing sector, it’s likely to continue to drag on the economy in Q3.

      However, it expects “the energy price guarantees for households and firms announced in September’s fiscal event to drive GDP growth higher in the fourth quarter. The extent to which the measures in the mini-budget will counter the dampening effects of plummeting confidence and increased interest rates will become clearer over the coming months.”

      Full release here.

      EUR/USD ready for range breakout? Some ECB previews

        ECB policy decision and press conference are the major focuses of the day. The central bank is widely expected to announce the end of net asset purchases after this month. That would set the stage for a rate hike “some after after” in July.

        Markets are expecting a 25bps rate hike in July, followed by a 50bps move in September. That would bring interest rate comfortably back into positive territory, finally after eight years of negative rate policy. President Lagarde will affirm the latter view, but she’d keep the options open on the pace of tightening.

        Suggested readings on ECB:

        EUR/USD’s reaction to ECB is definitely worth a watch today. It should first be noted that EUR/USD had just bounced off above 1.0339 (2017 low) in May. An upside breakout from the near term range today will have 1.0805 support turned resistance and 55 day EMA taken out firmly. That should confirm medium term bottoming at 1.0348. In this case, even as a correction to the down trend from 1.2348, EUR/USD should rise further to channel resistance (now at 1.1159), which is close to 38.2% retracement of 1.2348 to 1.0348 at 1.1112.

        Conservative Whip Johnson quits for his objection to May’s Brexit deal

          Conservative Whip Gareth Johnson announced to resign from this role of discipline enforcer just ahead of tomorrow’s crucial Brexit deal vote.

          Johnson said “over the last few weeks, I have tried to reconcile my duties as a Whip to assist the Government to implement the European Withdrawal Agreement, with my own personal objection to the agreement”.

          He added that “I have concluded that I cannot, in all conscience, support the Government’s position when it is clear this deal would be detrimental to our nation’s interests.”

          BoJ Ueda: No premature exit, but YCC tweak an option

            BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stressed the importance of not prematurely tightening monetary policy to ensure that Japan can sustainably achieve its 2% inflation target. However, Ueda also suggested potential adjustments to the Yield Curve Control (YCC) if the policy’s benefits and costs shift.

            As for Japan’s inflation forecast, Ueda expects consumer inflation to slow down as global fuel and raw material prices have begun to decline. Despite this projection, he did not entirely dismiss the possibility of needing to revise this outlook. “We can’t completely rule out the possibility that this projection could prove wrong,” Ueda said, adding, “If that’s the case and if we see the need to revise our forecast, we’d like to act swiftly.”

            Ueda elaborated on possible modifications to the YCC policy. “If the BOJ were to modify YCC in the future, there are various ways of doing so,” he stated. One potential approach he mentioned was targeting bond yields in the five-year zone, rather than the current 10-year zone.

            “But I won’t comment on whether we would definitely do so, how likely this could happen, or under what conditions the BOJ would see this option as desirable,” Ueda said.

            Incoming BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida Stresses Importance of Trend Inflation in Monetary Policy

              Incoming BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida emphasized the significance of trend inflation in a parliamentary session today, stating that the central bank will conduct a comprehensive assessment of various data, including trend inflation developments, to guide monetary policy.

              Uchida said that “trend inflation is an extremely important factor for us in judging on achievement of 2% inflation target in a stable manner.” He also mentioned that the BoJ will “make comprehensive judgment by looking at various price indicators.”

              In addition, Uchida highlighted the importance of communication between the central bank and the markets, saying, “We will strive to communicate firmly with markets to gain understanding” regarding the BoJ’s policy approach. This statement underscores the commitment of the BoJ to transparency and open dialogue in shaping its monetary policy.

              Japan’s GPIF will not investment in Chinese government bonds

                Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) said it will not investment in Chinese government bonds, even though FTSE Russell’s World Government Bond Index starts to include them in October. GPIS is the world’s largest pension fund, with total assets of JPY 192T.

                Masataka Miyazono, president of GPIF, said, “Chinese government bonds cannot be settled in an international settlement system that can be used for other major government bonds. The market’s liquidity is still limited compared with the size of GPIF’s investment scale. Trading of futures is not allowed for foreign investors.”

                WTI nears 80 psychological barrier, awaiting confirmation of OPEC+ deal

                  Oil market is extending near-term recovery today, driven by recent reports that OPEC+ has reached a preliminary agreement to cut oil production by over 1 million barrels per day. This development, reported by two OPEC+ sources to Reuters, has sparked optimism among traders and investors, leading to an extension in the near-term recovery of oil prices.

                  The proposed reduction is significant, as it includes Saudi Arabia’s continuation of its voluntary cut of 1 million bpd, which has been in effect since July. Additionally, the deal involves further contributions from other OPEC+ members, marking a concerted effort to stabilize oil prices amidst global economic uncertainties.

                  From technical analysis standpoint, WTI crude oil is now eyeing key resitsance level at 79.98, which is close to 80 psycholgoical level. Decisive break there will argue that whole corrective fall from 95.50 has completed with three waves down to 72.65. In this case, stronger rebound should be seen back to 81.77/91.07 resistance zone in the near term.

                  The momentum for this potential rebound in oil prices hinges on confirmation of the OPEC+ deal. Should the agreement be officially confirmed, it could act as a catalyst, triggering further upward movement in oil prices.

                  Germany Gfk consumer sentiment rose slightly to -40.2, but situation remains tense

                    Germany Gfk Consumer Sentiment for December rose slightly from -41.9 to -40.2, better than expectation of -45.3. In November, economic expectations rose from -22.2 to -17.9. Income expectations rose from -60.5 to -54.3. Propensity to buy dropped from -17.5 to -18.6.

                    “Consumers’ long-standing fear of skyrocketing energy prices has currently eased somewhat, which is having a slightly positive impact on consumer sentiment. On the one hand, some energy prices have recently recovered a bit, and on the other hand, consumers apparently assume that the measures adopted to cap energy prices can help curb inflation, even if this may turn out to be rather modest,” explains Rolf Bürkl, GfK consumer expert. “Despite the slight improvements, however, the situation remains tense.”

                    Full release here.

                    Fed Logan advocates for more restrictive monetary policy

                      Dallas President Fed Lorie Logan has voiced concerns about inflation and suggested that a more restrictive monetary policy may be necessary. She indicated that, based on the recent economic data and the Fed’s dual-mandate goals, it would have been fitting to raise the federal funds target range FOMC June meeting.

                      However, Logan pointed out the “challenging and uncertain environment,” arguing that “it can make sense to skip a meeting and move more gradually.”

                      Logan expressed deep concerns about whether inflation will return to target levels in a timely and sustainable manner. She further noted, “the continuing outlook for above-target inflation and a stronger-than-expected labor market calls for more-restrictive monetary policy.”

                      On the notion of a delayed impact from past policy actions, Logan expressed skepticism, saying, “I’m skeptical about the potential for large additional effects from this channel.” This stance challenges the widely held view that policy measures often take time to influence the economy, suggesting the need for swift action in addressing the current economic issues.

                      BoJ Kuroda expects wages to rise quite significantly

                        BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told the parliament he expected wages to rise “quite significantly”, thanks to improvement in the economy and a tightening job market.

                        Nevertheless, he reiterated that “BoJ must maintain the ultra-easy policy to support the economy and create an environment for firms to hike wages.”

                        No breakthrough in Mexico-US bilateral NAFTA talks, but Canada optimistic

                          The bilateral NAFTA meeting between Mexico and the US ended without breakthrough yesterday. Jesus Seade, designated chief negotiator of Mexican President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, told reporters told reports that “We are already looking at all the issues. We might close this, not in a matter of hours, but these days. We still have next week.” Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo said talks will resume on Thursday.

                          Canada has been rejected from the supposed trilateral negotiation. But its Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland still expressed optimism. She was in “very close contact” with her counterparts. And, she added “we are encouraged by the optimism that both countries have, and we are optimistic as well.” There are some concerns that Canada will face strong-arm tactics once the other two sides reach an agreement. But Freeland said “Canada will very much have a voice in the finalization of all of this.”

                          EU Barnier and UK Barclay held constructive meeting on next step for Brexit

                            EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier had a meeting with UK Brexit Minister Stephen Barclay in Brussels on Monday evening. A UK government spokesman said the two had a “constructive” meeting.

                            And they met to “discuss the next steps in the UK’s withdrawal from the EU and explore whether a way through can be found that would be acceptable to the UK Parliament and to the European Union”.

                            UK Prime Minister Theresa May is scheduled to make a statement on Brexit today. Without any progress, there will not be another meaningful vote on her withdrawal agreement. Instead, debate will resume on Thursday in the Commons, with some lawmakers pushing for shift control of the negotiation from the government to the parliament.

                            US-China to resume low level trade talks, Asian equities pare losses

                              Asian equities open broadly lower today following US markets, but reversed losses on news that US and China are going to resume trade talks.

                              China’s Ministry of Commerce said in a statement that accepting invitation by the US to resume trade discussions. Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen will meet with US Secretary for International Affairs David Malpass in late August.

                              In the statement, China reiterated that “it opposes unilateralism and trade protectionism and does not accept any unilateral trade restrictions”. And, “China welcomes dialogue and communication on the basis of reciprocity, equality and integrity.”

                              Hong Kong HSI dipped sharply to as low as 26871.11 in initial trading by then rebounded to 27405.25 on the news. But it’s now back below 27200, down -0.5%. The news is certainly a positive. But such low level meeting shouldn’t carry much significance in the near term. The trade war is on and the meeting is more gestures than anything with substance.

                              Australia Jan trade balance: Massive AUD 1.06b surplus

                                Australia recorded massive trade surplus of AUD 1.06b in January, a turnaround from December’s AUD -1.15b trade deficit.

                                Exports jumped 4% mom to AUD 33.9b, with 4% rise in non-rural goods, 54% rise in non-monetary gold. Much more than offsetting -8% fall in rural goods.

                                Imports, on the other hand, dropped -2% to AUD 32.9b. Consumption goods dropped -7%, non-monetary gold dropped -19%, capital goods dropped 1%.

                                AUD/JPY is tentatively drawing strong support from key medium term cluster at 81.48, 50% retracement of of 72.39 (2016) low to 90.29 (2017 high) at 81.34. But the bigger hurdle is on 84.34 support turned resistance for confirming short term bottoming. Otherwise, risk will remain on the downside.

                                Swiss KOF falls to 101.5, yet outlook remains positive

                                  Swiss KOF Economic Barometer fell from 102.0 to 101.5 in March, below expectation of 102.3. Despite this minor setback, the barometer continues to hover above its long-term average, indicating a positive outlook for the Swiss economy in the coming months.

                                  The decline can primarily be attributed to weaker performances in the construction sector and private consumption. However, finance and insurance sector emerged as a bright spot, with indicators pointing to slight improvements.

                                  Full Swiss KOF release here.

                                  Oil recovers as OPEC might raise output by only 300k to 500k barrels a day

                                    According to a Bloomberg report, OPEC members could finally compromise of raising production by 300k – 600k barrels a day over the next few months. Such increase will likely be taken up mainly by those with spare capacity, like Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United Arab Emirates. But it’s unsure whether this can be the consensus in the upcoming OPEC+ meeting in Vienna this week.

                                    Russia is proposing an increase of of 1.5m barrels a day. And the increase would be shared proportionally among all members. But some countries like Venezuela would be unable to raise the output.

                                    Oil price responded positively to the news. WTI crude oil dipped to as low as 63.59 earlier today but is now back at 64.69.

                                    BoE Decision Maker Panel indicates easing inflation expectations

                                      In the latest release of BoE Decision Maker Panel survey data for August, there is a tangible shift in business expectations pointing towards a decrease in both output price inflation and CPI inflation over the coming year, albeit with a lingering high degree of uncertainty.

                                      According to the report, firms anticipate a fall in output price inflation over the next year, with the year-ahead output price inflation envisioned to be 4.9% in the three months leading up to August. This projection denotes a dip of -0.5% in comparison to the data gathered in the three months to July.

                                      One-year ahead CPI inflation expectations lowered to 4.8% in August, a significant reduction from the 5.4% foreseen in July. Furthermore, when casting the net wider to encompass a three-year period, August data records a slight decrease to 3.2%, down by a marginal -0.1% from July’s expectations.

                                      In the realm of wage growth, there is a persistence of the previously noted trend with expectations for the year ahead holding steady at 5.0% in August. Despite this, it is essential to note that the figure is overshadowed by the realized wage growth reported at a higher 6.9% for both single month data and the cumulative data for the three months to August.

                                      However, amidst these optimistic projections, businesses seem to be grappling with considerable uncertainty. A substantial 53% of firms expressed that they are facing high to very high levels of uncertainty, a statistic that has remained unchanged from July.

                                      Full BoE DMP release here.

                                      BoC Poloz: Downside risks and deflation possibility the dominant concerns in coronavirus response

                                        BoC Governor Stephen Poloz delivered his final speech yesterday, before stepping down next week. He noted that the “dominant concerns” for the coronavirus crisis response was “was with the downside risk and the possibility that deflation could emerge.”

                                        “Deflation interacts horribly with existing debt, the two main ingredients of depressions in the past,” he added. “In effect, then, we were saying that the downside risks were sufficiently dire that there were no relevant trade-offs for monetary policy-makers to consider.”

                                        He admitted that the actions will “clearly lead to higher indebtedness, for governments in particular”. Getting the economy back onto its growth track is “the surest means of servicing those debts over time”.

                                        However, with the situation “more like a disaster than a recession”, confidence is expected to be “buttressed by fiscal income supports” and a “reasonably swift return to growth”. But, “any structural damage, such as business failures and labour market scarring, will of course take longer to repair.”

                                        Poloz’s full speech here.

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                                        Gold accelerates down after taking out 1900, eye 1956 support

                                          Gold is in steep fall in early European session, and selloff accelerates to as low as 1877.6 so far, after breaking through 1900 handle. The current development suggests that prior rise from 1764.31 has completed at 1959.16 after rejection by 1965.50 resistance. Deeper fall is expected as long as 1927.49 minor resistance holds.

                                          Immediate focus is now on 1856.98 support. Decisive break there should confirm this bearish case and turn outlook bearish. More importantly, such development will argue that whole consolidation pattern from 2075.18 is not finished, and is extending with another falling leg. Further decline would then be seen through 1764.31 low. That could also help give Dollar a floor for stronger rebound.