Trump to announce USD 60b tariff against China on Friday, China Premier Li pledges to open market

    It’s known that Trump is preparing to impose a package of USD 60b in tariffs against China. It’s reported that the package would apply to over 100 products. These products are believed by Trump to use trade secretes stolen from US companies, or forced to hand over in exchange for market access. The theme appears to be consistent with Section 301 intellectual property theft investigation and actions. But no one knows how relevant is that until there a a published list of products. Trump is planning to announce the action by Friday.

    China Premier Li Keqiang said today after a press conference that there is no forced transfer of technology. But he pledged that China will better protect intellectually property. Also, China will further open up the economy, lower import tariffs and allow foreign and domestic companies to compete on equal ground. China commerce ministry said that there is WTO ruling against tariffs directed only at them. And it urged the US to correct the abuse of trade measures. But the MOFCOM didn’t comment directly on the reported USD 60b tariff package.

    EU Moscovici at G20: We must absolutely avoid trade wars

      European Economics Commissioner Pierre Moscovici he’s “cautiously optimistic” that there could be an agreement on the language on trade out of G20 meeting. And he hoped that the G20 communique will show that “how that protectionism is not the solution and we must absolutely avoid that.” He warned that “the first risk is the risk of inward looking policies and protectionism.”

      Regarding US requests to omit the term “multilateral” from there statement, Moscovici blasted that “avoiding multilateralism in a multilateral organization makes no sense.” He further added that “a trade war would be stupid. There would be damage on both sides of the Atlantic.” Moscovici also reiterated that EU is prepared for counter-measures to US if it’s not exempted from the steel and aluminum tariffs. Moscovici noted “but we think the best is to avoid a scale up” because “we must absolutely avoid trade wars.”

      On the other hand, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin emphasized in an email statement that “The trip to the G-20 will focus on advancing the Trump administration’s global economic agenda to level the playing field for U.S. companies and workers.”

      ECB Mersch: Prerequisites there for inflation, but easy policy still needed

        ECB Executive Board member Yves Mersch sounded upbeat on his comments yesterday. He said that “all prerequisites for a sustainable adjustment of inflation to our objective are given.”

        The central bank could continue to cut down its asset purchases gradually as inflation outlook improves. He’s concerned that there could be excessive market reactions if the asset purchases are reduced too quickly. And that would undo ECB’s hard work in the past few years.

        Overall, for the time being, easy monetary policy is still needed to support inflation.

        AUD in strong near term downisde bias

          While JPY is the worst performer this week so far, AUD is doing much better. Aussie is trading down versus all for the week except versus Dollar and Yen.

          Looking at the Action Bias charts, note that 6H bias is all red downside in the last 9 bars of AUD/JPY. It’s clear that it’s in a near term downside momentum with solid momentum. The blue upside bars in hourly chart merely represents correction. And the decline is set to return after the correction completes.

          Similarly, GBP/AUD had strong upside momentum after the range breakout as seen in 6H bias chart. The neutral bias in H bias chart mere indicates it’s in consolidation. The absence of red downside bar in H bias chart suggests that all consolidations were shallow and upside momentum has been strong.

          DOW, NASDAQ dived. FTSE downside breakout on GBP rally

            US stock markets closed down sharply overnight as the selloff in Facebook spread to techs and then other sectors. In the background there is also concerns of Trump’s trade war against China. Down dropped -1.35% to 24610.91 and S&P 500 dropped -1.42% to 2712.92. NASDAQ suffered the biggest damage by losing -1.84% to 7344.24. Nikkei opened lower and is down -140 at time of writing. HK HSI is down -0.55%.

            Even though DOW managed to pare back some loss towards the end of the session, the break of 24668.83 support now put the bears in control. For the near term, deeper fall is expected to 24217.76, or slightly further to 23.6% retracement of 26616.71 to 23360.29 at 24128.80. Overall, it’s bounded in corrective pattern from 26616.71 and price actions inside this ranging pattern is rather hard to predict. We’ll keep an eye on downside momentum to gauge the chance of a test on 23360.29.

            NASDAQ’s fall from last week’s record high at 7637.27 accelerated after taking out 55H EMA firmly. But it’s now trying to draw support from 38.2% retracement of 6630.67 to 7637.27 at 7252.74. Initial support might be seen to bring recovery. But sustained break of 55 H EMA (now at 7445.43) is needed to confirm completion of the fall. Otherwise, based on current momentum, deeper fall is in favor back to 61.8% retracement at 7051.19.

            Across the Atlantic, FTSE also tumbled sharply yesterday. But that’s mainly due to Sterling’s sharp rally following news of Brexit transition deal. The break of 7062.13 now confirms resumption of whole fall from 7792.56. FTSE is now set to take on 38.2% retracement of 5499.50 to 7792.56 at 6916.61. Reaction to this medium te4rm fibonacci level could hinge on whether GBP/USD will break above 1.4345 key resistance.

            DOW heading for downside breakout as selling intensifies

              Last Friday, we mentioned that DOW should be close to a triangle breakout point. Now, it seems like traders have made up their mind for downside move. 24668.83 will now be the key focus. Break will resume the fall from 25449.15. Break should at least send the index to 23.6% retracement of 26616.71 to 23360.29 at 24128.80. That’s slightly below 24217.76 resistance. It remains to be seen if the correction from 26616.71 will extend beyond 23360.29. And the momentum of the next move will be closely watched.

              BoJ Kuroda: Free trade is important, protectionism won’t spread globally

                BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said ahead of G20 finance head meeting:-

                • “There is a solid understanding among the global community that free trade is important”
                • “I don’t think protectionism will spread globally”

                Now, let’s see how many “like minded” people are there in the meeting.

                Euro follows Sterling higher on Brexit news. USD, JPY, CHF in misery

                  Euro follows Sterling higher on news of Brexit transition agreement. The optimistic development now leaves Dollar, Yen and Swiss Franc in misery going into US session. In particular, it now looks like EUR/USD has defended 1.2251 minor support well. And the correction from 1.2445 might be finished with three waves down to 1.2257. Focus is immediately back on 1.2235 minor resistance now. Break will bring stronger rise to 1.2412/45 resistance zone.

                  EUR/CHF looks set to end days of dull trading and have a take on 1.1740.

                  Barnier and Davis confirm Brexit transition agreement, new text published

                    EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier and UK Brexit Secretary David Davis confirm in a press conference that the deal for transition period is agreed.

                    Barnier announced that the legal text of Brexit has been agreed, even though there are still works today, in particular regarding Irish border. And, a new text of draft Brexit withdrawal agreement published. (The new, color-coded text can be found here). He will present the document to MEPs and to the commission, and then to EU leaders during the summit on Friday. Be after all, he also emphasized that the transition agreement will only take effect if the final agreement is made.

                    According to Barnier, EU nationals arrive in the UK during the transition will have the same rights as those arrived before. UK will not participate in EU decision making during the period, but it have to follow EU rules. Regarding Irish border, Brainier reiterated that both sides are committed to the joint position of avoiding a hard border, as published in a report back in December. The so called regulatory alignment solution will be part of the agreement as a fall back option.

                    UK Brexit secretary David Davis sad the implementation phase (transition period) will provide certainty for the short term. And trade deals will be agreed this time, with a joint committee of UK and EU representatives working to resolve all differences. While UK will follow EU rules, on foreign policy, UK will go on their own. Davis also confirms that the transition period will end on December 31, 2020.

                    Sterling soars as Brexit transition deal “done”. GBP/USD and EUR/GBP updates

                      Sterling jumps sharply on news that Brexit transition deal is agreed. And, it’s only awaiting sign-off by UK Brexit Secretary David Davis and EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier. David and Barnier are meeting in Brussels to hammer out the details today. The legal text of the agreement is expected to be delivered to the EU summit on Thursday and Friday for final approval. Davis and Barnier will hold a joint press conference later today.

                      It’s reported elsewhere that the cut off date for the transition period will be December 2020. And, UK will be allowed to make 3rd party trade deals during the transition.

                      GBP/USD takes out 1.3995 to resume the rally from 1.3711. It’s on course for a test on 1.4144. And, it’s getting more convincing that the correction from 1.4345 is completed. And the pair is ready for resuming larger up trend from 2016 low at 1.1946.

                      EUR/GBP’s break of 0.8871 support also confirm that the corrective rise from 0.8686 has completed at 0.8967. Deeper fall should be seen to retest 0.8686 in near term. It’s a bit early to tell if fall from 0.9305 is resuming. But momentum looks promising.

                      Sterling performing well, GBP/CHF with solid upside bias

                        Sterling doing rather well today with GBP/CHF, GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD topping the daily top mover table. These three pairs are also the top 10 movers in the 4 hour and monthly period.

                        Upside momentum in GBP/CHF is quite clear as seen in 6H action bias chart.

                        ECB Knot confident on inflation, Villeroy de Galhau on path to normalization

                          Some comments from ECB officials.

                          Klaas Knot, ECB Governing Council member and President of the Dutch central bank, said “Inflation has been fairly stable so that provides me with a high degree confidence that actually inflation will pick up and will at some point approach the definition of price stability.”

                          Francois Villeroy de Galhau, ECB Governing Council member and Bank of France Governor, said “we are making progress on the inflation front… although a bit slower than we had expected.” And, “our policy is on a path to normalization.”

                          ECB Governing Council member and Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said in a German newspaper interview that “I personally think that the good economic developments and the inflation forecast would allow a rapid end to the bond purchases.

                          EU called urgent meeting on Brexit

                            It’s reported, with unnamed sources quoted, that EU officials called an urgent meeting regrading Brexit. It’s believed that there could be certain decisions made regarding the transition deal ahead of the EU summit later this week. Meanwhile, UK Brexit Secretary David Davis will also meet with EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier.

                            BoJ’s government debt holdings jumped to record high

                              BoJ’s government debt holdings jumped to record high in the period of October to December 2017. By the end of December, holdings jumped 6.8% yoy to JPY 449T. That equaled to 41.1% of all Japanese government debt. Insurance and pensions holdings was a distant second, at JPY 21.6T only. Overseas holdings also rose to JPY 122T, a record high.

                              45 trade groups warn Trump: Don’t do something commercially meaningless and penalize Americans

                                45 trade groups wrote an open letter to Trump trying to stop him from starting a trade war with China. In a joint open letter: –

                                The group urged Trump’s administration to take “measured, commercially meaningful actions consistent with international obligations” and warned Trump not to “penalize the American consumer and jeopardize recent gains in American competitiveness.” It’s clear to the group of businesses what Trump is trying to do regarding tariff on China is not commercially meaningful.

                                The group also warned of the “chain reaction of negative consequences” of trade war with China by “provoking” retaliation. And Trump should not respond to unfair Chinese practices and policies by measures that will “harm U.S. companies, workers, farmers, ranchers, consumers, and investors.”

                                In particular, it’s listed out in the letter that

                                • Tariffs on consumer goods would raise price for consumers and business and “negating gains for American workers from U.S. tax reform.” T
                                • Tariffs will also harm American companies that “sell component pieces of final products exported from China.”
                                • Also, tariffs would harm community services provides including “health care, education, and emergency responders.
                                • Tariffs on product components would “disrupting existing supply chains” and have “negative impact on American jobs”.
                                • Tariffs will also depress financial markets.

                                Additionally, the group warned that “imposition of unilateral tariffs by the Administration would only serve to split the United States from its allies”.

                                Here is a copy of the letter.

                                And below is the list of trade groups:

                                1. Agriculture Transportation Coalition
                                2. Airforwarders Association
                                3. Allied for Startups
                                4. American Apparel & Footwear Association
                                5. AutoCare Association
                                6. CAWA Auto Parts
                                7. Coalition of New England Companies for Trade
                                8. Columbia River Customs & Forwarders
                                9. CompTIA
                                10. Computer and Communications Industry Association
                                11. Consumer Technology Association (CTA)
                                12. Customs Brokers and Forwarders Association of Northern California
                                13. Developers Alliance
                                14. Fashion Accessory Shippers (FASA)
                                15. Gemini Shippers Association
                                16. Grocery Manufacturers Association
                                17. Home Furnishings Association
                                18. Information Technology Industry Council (ITI)
                                19. International Wood Products Association
                                20. Internet Association
                                21. Los Angeles Customs Brokers
                                22. National Customs Brokers and Forwarders Association of America
                                23. National Foreign Trade Council
                                24. National Retail Federation
                                25. NY/NJ Forwarders and Brokers Association
                                26. North American Meat Institute
                                27. Outdoor Industry Association
                                28. Pacific Northwest Asia Shippers Association
                                29. Promotional Products Association International
                                30. Retail Industry Leaders Association (RILA)
                                31. Snowsports Industries America
                                32. Specialty Crop Trade Council
                                33. Sports and Fitness Industry
                                34. Tea Association of the U.S.A., Inc.
                                35. TechNet
                                36. Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA)
                                37. The APP Association (ACT)
                                38. The Pacific Coast Council of Customs Brokers and Freight Forwarders
                                39. The Toy Association
                                40. Travel Goods Association (TGA)
                                41. U.S. Chamber of Commerce
                                42. U.S. Council for International Business
                                43. U.S. Fashion Industry Association
                                44. U.S. Hide, Skin, and Leather Association
                                45. Wine and Spirits Shippers Association

                                EU published retaliation list, up to EUR 6.4b of US imports

                                  EU published a list of products for retaliation over US steel and trade tariffs last Friday. The total value of US imports to EU could add up to EUR 6.4b in total. There are two parts in the list. Part A includes goods that are worth EUR 2.8b and EU aim to impose 25% tariff. Part B include products that could be tariffed after three years. It’s believed that EU will notify the WTO as soon as possible within a 90-day deadline. For the time being, according to WTO rules, EU can only retaliate up to the amount of EU’s steel exports to the US, and thus that EUR 2.8b amount. But EU is making itself ready for further action, playing by the WTO book.

                                  Here is the list of products in case you’re interested.

                                  German Economy Minister Altmaier: Americans are “still” our allies

                                    German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier will meet with US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross this week, and “anyone in Washington who is willing to talk.” US steel and aluminum tariffs is the main focus on the trip for Altmaier. He warned that “what’s dangerous about the current situation is that it threatens a spiral of one-sided measures that contradict the idea of free trade.” And, “that would counter what we’ve done for the past 60 years. Altmaier also emphasized that “Americans are still our allies” and he’d want to prevent a trade war.

                                    German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz will meet US Treasurer Steven Mnuchin at G20 finance head meeting in Buenos Aires. Scholz told the press that “we must think about how we can ensure growth for the future and of course also how we can keep one of the most important resources for future wealth — the possibility to trade freely — stable.” And, that’s why it would be difficult if protectionism played a bigger role now again.”

                                    Bundesbank Weidmann: Good economic developments and inflation forecast allows quick end to asset purchase

                                      Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said in a German newspaper interview:-

                                      • “I personally think that the good economic developments and the inflation forecast would allow a rapid end to the bond purchases.”

                                      Weidmann is always felt like the lone hawk in ECB board. Recent comments from other ECB officials generally remained cautious.

                                      For example, ECB President Mario Draghi just repeated last week that he still need to see further evidence of prices picking up towards target. And repeated that “monetary policy will remain patient, persistent and prudent.” Chief economist Peter Praet said last week that he didn’t even prefer to revise the ECB’s forward guidance too early.

                                      BoJ summary of opinions at March meeting: Need to explain the difference between normalization and tightening

                                        BoJ summary of opinions at March 8-9 policy meeting showed no change in the board’s stance on monetary policy. Generally speaking “powerful monetary easing” will be maintained as it’s “still a long way” to meet 2% inflation target. There were concerns of Yen’s appreciation and stocks’ decline as they would “constrain wages and prices” and risk delaying of meeting price target. the board also saw the need to explain the difference between “normalization” and “tightening” even though it’s not in the phase to consider normalization. So we’ll likely hear more rhetorics from BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda ahead regarding exit. Yet he’ll repeat and repeat that it’s not there for exit yet.

                                        Some quote highlights:-

                                        • If the current trends of the appreciation of the yen and the decline in stock prices become prolonged, business fixed investment and consumption will be restrained due to negative wealth effects and a deterioration of households’ and firms’ balance sheets, and the profits of export industries will decrease due to the adverse effects on exports. As these will constrain wages and prices, there will be a risk of a delay in achieving the price stability target.
                                        • The year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) is likely to continue on an uptrend and increase toward 2 percent, mainly on the back of an improvement in the output gap and a rise in medium- to long-term inflation expectations.
                                        • In terms of projecting price developments, the key is to what extent wage developments after the annual spring labor-management wage negotiations will improve individual firms’ price-setting stance and consumers’ acceptance of price rises.
                                        • Considering that there is still a long way to go to achieve the price stability target of 2 percent, it is appropriate to pursue powerful monetary easing with persistence under the current guideline for market operations in order to firmly maintain the momentum toward achieving the price stability target
                                        • This is not the phase in which the Bank should consider “normalization” — that is, gradually reducing the degree of monetary accommodation — in a concrete manner. However, the Bank needs to explain to market participants so that they can fully understand that “normalization” is still in the process of monetary accommodation and completely different from monetary tightening, which aims at reducing the positive output gap. Such explanation will also be beneficial in smoothly proceeding with “normalization” in the future.
                                        • If there is a heightened risk that achieving the price stability target will be delayed, additional monetary easing will be needed

                                        Full release here

                                        DOW approaching breakout point

                                          DOW opens mildly higher today. It’s staying in converging triangle pattern. And should be approaching a breakout point. Levels to watch are 24668.83 and 25449.15.