Fed maintains forecast of three hikes in 2018, expects one extra in 2019

    Fed delivered the 25bps rate hike and lifted the federal funds rate to 1.50-1.75% as widely expected. But Dollar bulls are clearly dissatisfied with the updated economic projections. The accompanying statement is nearly a carbon copy of the prior one with balanced changes. It added that “recent data suggest that growth rates of household spending and business fixed investment have moderated from their strong fourth-quarter readings.” But at the same time, “economic outlook has strengthened in recent months.” The interest rate decision was made with unanimous 8-0 vote.

    Going into the projections:

    Real GDP forecast for 2018 is raised to 2.7% (up from 2.5%), for 2019 raised to 2.4% (up from 2.1%), for 2020 unchanged at 2.0%.

    • Implication is that Fed is expecting slight boost from tax cuts in 2018 and 2019. But the impact won’t be long lasting and would fade into 2020.

    Unemployment rate forecast for 2018 is lowered to 3.8% (down from 3.9%), for 2019 lowered to 3.6% (down from 3.9%), for 2020 lowered to 3.6% (down from 4.0%).

    • The employment market is expected to improve further, with the help of tax cuts and expansive fiscal policy. And the impact would sustain.

    PCE inflation forecast for 2018 unchanged at 1.9%, for 2019 unchanged at 2.0%, for 2020 raised to 2.1% (up from 2.0%)

    Core PCE inflation forecast for 2018 unchanged at 1.9%, for 2019 raised to 2.1% (up fro 2.0%), for 2020 raised to 2.1% (up from 2.0%).

    • While unemployment rate would continue to drop, GDP growth to stay solid, inflation will pressure will remain contained. Fed is seeing the current pattern to continue.

    Federal funds rate projection for 2018 unchanged at 2.1%, 2019 raised to 2.9% (up from 2.7%), 2020 raised to 3.4% (up from 3.1%).

    • This is possibly what disappointed dollar bulls most. It implies Fed will stick with the course of only three rate hike this year. There might be one more hike in 2019 to three in total, thanks to the GDP growth in both 2018 and 2019, as well as the steep improvement in labour market. And, Fed is more confident that there will be another two rate hikes in 2020.

    Fed raised federal fund rates by 25bps to 1.5-1.75%

      Fed raised federal fund rates by 25bps to 1.5-1.75%. Statement below.

      New economic projections here.

      FOMC Statement Mar 21, 2017

      Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been strong in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Recent data suggest that growth rates of household spending and business fixed investment have moderated from their strong fourth-quarter readings. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have continued to run below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have increased in recent months but remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

      Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The economic outlook has strengthened in recent months. The Committee expects that, with further gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace in the medium term and labor market conditions will remain strong. Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to move up in coming months and to stabilize around the Committee’s 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.

      In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

      In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

      Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Loretta J. Mester; Randal K. Quarles; and John C. Williams.

      SNB: Real external value of Swiss franc still at a high level

        SNB commented on exchange rate in its latest Quarterly Bulletin. Here are the quotes from section 5.4.

        Swiss franc gains against US dollar

        Since the monetary policy assessment in December 2017, the Swiss franc has gained in value against the US dollar by around 4% (cf. chart 5.4). This appreciation occurred against a backdrop of general US dollar weakness, which became more pronounced at the end of January following statements by the US Treasury Secretary about the advantages of a weak US dollar for the American economy. At times, the USD/CHF exchange rate declined to its lowest level since mid-2015. 

        Fluctuations in Swiss franc exchange rate to euro

        Initially, the Swiss franc depreciated somewhat against the euro. At times in mid-January, the price of the euro was CHF 1.18, the highest value since the discontinuation of the minimum exchange rate. Thereafter, however, the Swiss franc strengthened again. This appreciation occurred against a backdrop of growing market uncertainty, which was also reflected in share price performance. In mid-March, one euro cost CHF 1.17, which was practically the same level as at the time of the monetary policy assessment in December.

        Slight increase in Swiss franc’s trade-weighted external value

        On a nominal trade-weighted basis, the Swiss franc has increased by more than 1% since mid-December (cf. chart 5.5). This was mainly due to its marked appreciation against the US dollar.

        Real external value of Swiss franc still at a high level

        Since autumn 2017, the real trade-weighted exchange rate index calculated by the SNB has been at roughly the same level as before the discontinuation of the minimum exchange rate. It thereby remains above its long-term average. The same is true for the indices calculated by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) (cf. chart 5.6).

        Full report here

        Basically, there is no indication for a change of SNB’s stance on exchange rate. Swiss Franc remains overvalued. And it will stand ready to intervenue if needed.

         

        China preparing quick, targeted retaliations to Trump’s $60b tariffs

          The WSJ reported that China is preparing to hit back at US President Donald Trump’s targeted tariffs against it. Trump is set to unveiled to list of products tomorrow, which could add up to as much as USD 60b of annual tariffs.

          It’s not really news that China is preparing counter measures. But what WSJ said is that China’s tit-for-tat tariffs would target Trump’s support base. That is, they will be aimed at agricultural exports from Farm Belt states.

          That raises a question on whether China views it as trade war with the US, the Republicans, or Trump himself. Trump war might be easy to win for a sized economy against smaller ones. It’s much tougher between two economies of comparable size.

          Would there be a chance if the trade war is between a political party, a family, or even a person, against a sized economy?

          Remember that it’s an authoritarian government in China. What they’d do very much depends on how their leader Xi Jinping views it. If Xi sees the provocation as from Trump only, rather than the whole of the US, then good luck to the latter.

          Merkel pledges unambiguous counter measures against Trump’s unlawful tariffs

            German Chancellor Angela Merkel talked to lawmakers in Bundestag today covering a number of topics.

            Regarding Brexit, Merkel said the EU-UK relationship cannot not be as close as it is now after Brexit. However, she still emphasized that EU wants “friendly relationship” with UK. Also, she was “deep, detailed” free trade accord between EU and UK.

            On the other hand, Merkel blasts US President Donald Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs as “unlawful”. EU and Germany will continue talks with the US. However, Merkel emphasized that if necessary “we will take unambiguous counter measures”.

            NZDUSD at the early stage of decline ahead of RBNZ rate decision

              USD suffers some selling today as markets await FOMC rate hike. But NZD and AUD are performing even worse as seen in daily heatmap. On the other hand, solid UK job data, with fall in unemployment rate to 4.3%, and acceleration wage growth, keeps Sterling buoyed. Indeed, GBP is staying as the strongest one for the week ahead of tomorrow’s BoE rate decision. Canadian Dollar follows as the strongest for the day.

              In between FOMC and BoE, RBNZ will also announce rate decision in the upcoming Asian session. RBNZ is widely expected to keep the Official Cash Rate OCR unchanged at 1.75%. In the prior statement, RBNZ noted that “monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period. Numerous uncertainties remain and policy may need to adjust accordingly.” That’s clearly seen as easing bias by the markets. We’re not expecting any change in the OCR, nor the slightly dovish stance in tomorrow’s announcement.

              Looking at the 6H action bias chart, NZD/USD is clearly in a persisting near term down move, just came out of brief consolidation.

              From the D action bias chart, NZD/USD is staying to increase downside bias after taking out 0.7176 support (Feb 6). It’s likely just the start of a bigger downward move given the developments.

              GBP jumps as UK unemployment rate fell, wage growth accelerated

                Sterling jumps notably as positive response to UK job data. Unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%, down from 4.4%, and beat expectation of 4.4%. Average weekly earnings exclude bonus rose 2.6% 3moy, accelerated from 2.5% 3moy. More surprisingly, Average weekly earnings include bonus rose 2.8% 3moy, accelerated from 2.7% 3moy and beat expectation of of 2.6% 3moy. Claimant count, on the other hand, rose 9.2k versus expectation of -5k.

                • UK unemployment rate Jan: 4.3% vs exp 4.4% and prior 4.4%
                • Average weekly earnings exclude bonus Jan (3M/Y): 2.6% vs exp 2.6% vs prior 2.5%
                • Average weekly earnings include bonus Jan (3M/Y): 2.8% vs exp 2.6% vs prior 2.7%
                • Claimant count Feb: 9.2k vs exp -5.0k vs prior -1.6k

                The set of data overall should be more than welcomed by BoE hawks. In particular, wage growth is picking up pace and would add to their argument of a May hike. Be ready and we might see a hawk or two vote for a hike in the announcement tomorrow. In particular, UK has the Brexit transition deal in pocket already.

                EUR/GBP is leading the way down as fall from 0.8976 resumes. It’s on course for a test on 0.8686 key support level. As this is a strong, important support zone, EUR/GBP could face some support there at initial attempt.

                GBP/USD’s also jumps sharply after the release, indicating that retreat from 1.4087 is likely finished. The pair is also supported well above 4 hour 55 EMA. A test on 1.4087 would likely be seen soon.

                German ifo forecasts 2.6% growth in 2018, 2.1% in 2019

                  ifo Institute forecasts German economy to grow 2.6% in 2018, then slow to 2.1% in 2019. It’s head of f Economic Forecasting Timo Wollmershaeuser noted that the calculations “confirm figures from our December forecast.: However, “underlying forces have shifted somewhat.”

                  In particular, forecast for household consumption expenditure was scaled by by 0.5% in 2018, because of lower than expected spending back in 2H 2017. Government spending forecast was raised by 0.5% in 2018, as new government policy will provide a stimulus. Export growth was revised up by 0.5% in 2018, thanks to upturn in Eurozone economy and US tax cuts.

                  Regarding risks, “the debate over the introduction and/or increase in tariffs on transatlantic trade and the appreciation of the euro are weakening sentiment among German companies.” Also, the new coalition government is “disappointing in terms of reforming the tax and social security system.” In particular, Wollmershaeuser said that was no response to US, France and UK tax cuts.

                  Fed to hike in Powell’s debut

                    Fed is widely expected to raise federal funds rate by 25bps to 1.50-1.75% today. Fed fund futures are pricing in near 95% chance of that. There is no reason for Fed to give market a surprise. The main question in everybody’s mind is whether Fed will hike a total of three times this year, or four. Fed fund futures are pricing more than 80% chance of another hike in June already, and close to 60% chance of another in September. But for now, it’s only pricing less than 40% chance of the fourth in December.

                    As usual with a March FOMC meeting, new economic projections will be released. Given that the Republican’s tax cuts were done, there could be upward revisions in growth. Unemployment rate forecast might be left unchanged. PCE core at 1.5% in January, is still way off Fed’s median projection of 1.9% in 2018. There is little chance of a change in that figure. Meanwhile, any slight change in the federal funds rate projection would be market moving.

                    Fed’s December projections:

                    The event also bears additional significance as it’s Jerome Powell’s first press conference as Fed chair. His Congressional testimony was seen by some as more hawkish and upbeat than expected. Recapping that he said “my personal outlook for the economy has strengthened since December.” And, “we’ve seen some data that will in my case add some confidence to my view that inflation is moving up to target.” Powell might maintain the tone today and indicate his confidence in continuing the tightening cycle.

                    GBP finds footing as UK employment data eyed

                      For now, Sterling is still trading as the second strongest major currency for the week despite yesterday’s post CPI dip. Employment data will be a main focus today. Markets expect claimant counts to dropped -3.1k in February. ILO unemployment rate is expected to stay unchanged at 4.4% in January. A key focus is on wage growth as average weekly earnings is expected to rise 2.6% 3moy in January. Still, with CPI at 2.7% yoy, wage is still playing catch up.

                      Reaction to the job data could be muted though as the major focus is on tomorrow’s BoE rate decision. BoE is widely expected to keep bank rate unchanged at 0.50% and asset purchase target at GBP 435b. No updated economic projections will be delivered as they were published back in February’s Inflation Report already. Instead, eyes will be on whether BoE would turn more upbeat in the statement, given that a Brexit transition deal is already done. In addition, known hawks Michael Saunders and Ian McCafferty could come back with a vote on rate hike. All in all, focus in on gauging the chance of a May hike.

                      CAD rebounds as US dropped one of the toughest protectionist demand in NAFTA talks

                        Canadian Dollar rebounds strongly on news that US will drop contentious auto-content proposal in NAFTA talks. It’s seen as clearing and important road block in NAFTA renegotiation. The Loonie is trading as the strongest major currency in Asian session.

                        There was a demand for vehicles made in Canada and Mexico for export to the US contain at least 50% US content. But Canada’s Globe and Mail reported that this contentious demand was dropped during NAFTA meeting in Washington last week. This is seen by some as one of the US toughest protectionist demand.

                        CAD is now the strongest one as seen in heatmap for today, followed by Euro. NZD, AUD and USD are the weakest ones.

                        From Action Bias chart, 6H bias turned neutral after USD/CAD hit 1.3124. And H bias turned negative with current dip through 1.305. For now, it’s more of a correction then a change in trend.

                        Trump to announce tariffs on Chinese goods on Thursday, but will seek industry input before finalizing

                          US President Donald Trump is set to announce the package of tariffs against Chinese goods on Thursday, a day earlier than rumored. It’s believed that the total amount of targeted goods adds up to USD 30-60b. We believe that it will be on the higher side on the range. Additionally, there will be new restrictions on Chinese investments in the US. Treasury will be directed to outline the rules regarding Chinese investments.

                          But, it’s reported that the tariffs won’t take effect immediately. Instead, businesses are given a chance to comment on the list of tariffed products. The final decision will come after industry input. This is seen as an act of Trump bowing down to pressure from business leaders. Earlier this week, 45 of largest American trade groups wrote an open letter to Trump, warning Trump not to respond to unfair Chinese practices and policies by measures that will “harm U.S. companies, workers, farmers, ranchers, consumers, and investors.”

                          G20 stressed importance of trade, urged further dialogue, nothing more

                            G20 finance ministers and central bank governors ended the summit in Buenos Aires with a joint communique that emphasized the importance of international trade. And they urged for the need for “further dialogue and actions”. But the communique fell short of anything else to push back protectionism.

                            The communique noted “International trade and investment are important engines of growth, productivity, innovation, job creation and development.” And, “we reaffirm the conclusions of our Leaders on trade at the Hamburg Summit and recognise the need for further dialogue and actions.” They pledged to work to “strengthen the contribution of trade to our economies.”

                            Below is the full communique covering areas like technology, infrastructure, global financial system, cross-border capital flow, debts, international tax system and even Cryto-assets. But trade wasn’t mentioned beyond the first paragraph.

                            Communiqué

                            Finance ministers and central bank governors
                            March 20, 2018, Buenos Aires

                            The global economic outlook has continued to improve since we last met in October 2017, with the broadest synchronised global growth upsurge since 2010, and a pick-up in investment and trade. While we welcome this progress, recent market volatility despite sound fundamentals of the global economy is a reminder of risks and vulnerabilities. Downside risks persist and, over the medium term, challenges remain to raise growth and make it more inclusive. This is our moment to take action to address structural growth impediments, rebuild buffers, reduce excessive global imbalances, and mitigate risks. We discussed key risks to the outlook, including financial vulnerabilities that could be revealed with a faster than expected tightening of financial conditions and heightened economic and geopolitical tensions. We agree to continue using all policy tools to support strong, sustainable, balanced and inclusive growth. We will implement structural reforms to enhance our growth potential. Fiscal policy should be used flexibly and be growth-friendly, prioritise high quality investment, while enhancing economic and financial resilience and ensuring debt as a share of GDP is on a sustainable path. Strong fundamentals, sound policies, and a resilient international monetary system are essential to the stability of exchange rates, contributing to strong and sustainable growth and investment. Flexible exchange rates, where feasible, can serve as a shock absorber. We recognise that excessive volatility or disorderly movements in exchange rates can have adverse implications for economic and financial stability. We will refrain from competitive devaluations, and will not target our exchange rates for competitive purposes. International trade and investment are important engines of growth, productivity, innovation, job creation and development. We reaffirm the conclusions of our Leaders on trade at the Hamburg Summit and recognise the need for further dialogue and actions. We are working to strengthen the contribution of trade to our economies.

                            Technology, including digitalisation, is fundamentally reshaping the global economy given its borderless and intangible nature, and its increasing ability to automate cognitive tasks. We are developing a common understanding of the nature of the changes and their potential implications. Transformative technologies are expected to bring immense economic opportunities, such as new ways of doing business, new industries, new and better jobs, and higher GDP growth and living standards. At the same time, the transition creates challenges for individuals, businesses, and governments. These include changes to labour markets, the growing importance of skills and adaptability, and the risk of increased inequality within and between countries. Policy responses, including international cooperation, are needed to harness the opportunities and ensure the benefits are shared by all. We therefore agree to develop a menu of policy options for consideration at our meeting in July.

                            Infrastructure is critical to boost productivity, enhance connectivity, sustain long-term inclusive growth and provide our citizens with physical and digital access to the new economy. Despite its importance, a persistent infrastructure financing gap remains. Public financing of infrastructure is essential but mobilising additional private capital is needed to meet global infrastructure needs. To achieve this, we agree to promote the necessary conditions to help develop infrastructure as an asset class. To guide our work, we endorse the Roadmap to Infrastructure as an Asset Class which builds on the outcomes of past G20 presidencies and draws together the steps needed to achieve our ambition. The Roadmap identifies seven work streams, including regulatory frameworks and capital markets, as well as quality infrastructure. In 2018, our focus under the Roadmap will be to improve project preparation, move towards greater standardisation of contracts and infrastructure financing instruments, address data gaps, and improve risk mitigation, taking into account country-specific conditions. We look forward to continuing and deepening the dialogue with the private sector.

                            We note the report of the Independent Board of the Global Infrastructure Hub recommending renewal of its mandate. We call for coordination among current initiatives sponsored by MDBs and others to avoid duplication of efforts.

                            We reaffirm our commitment to further strengthening the global financial safety net with a strong, quota-based, and adequately resourced IMF at its centre. We are committed to concluding the 15th General Review of Quotas and agreeing on a new quota formula as a basis for a realignment of quota shares to result in increased shares for dynamic economies in line with their relative positions in the world economy and hence likely in the share of emerging market and developing countries as a whole, while protecting the voice and representation of the poorest members by the Spring Meetings of 2019 and no later than the Annual Meetings of 2019.

                            Cross-border capital flows offer significant benefits, but their size and volatility may pose policy challenges. We will continue to monitor capital flows and refine our understanding of the tools to improve the resilience of the international monetary system. We recognise the importance of macroprudential policies in limiting systemic risk. We continue to deepen our understanding of capital flow management measures and the conditions under which they might be effective, taking into account country-specific circumstances. We are looking forward to further work by the IMF, based on the IMF Institutional View on Capital Flow Management, that will help inform country actions and to the results of the Review of the OECD Code of Liberalisation of Capital Movement.

                            Rising debt levels in Low Income Countries (LICs) have led to concerns about debt vulnerabilities in these economies. We agree that building capacity in public financial management, strengthening domestic policy frameworks, and enhancing information sharing could help avoid new episodes of debt distress in LICs. We call for greater transparency, both on the side of debtors and creditors. We reaffirm our support to the ongoing work of the Paris Club, as the principal international forum for restructuring official bilateral debt, towards the broader inclusion of emerging creditors. We support the provision of technical assistance by the IMF and the World Bank Group (WBG) in debt recording and reporting in LICs, where needed, and look forward to the work of these institutions on debt transparency.

                            The global financial system must remain open, resilient and supportive of growth and grounded in agreed international standards. We will continue to closely monitor and, if necessary, address emerging risks and vulnerabilities in the financial system. We welcome the finalisation of Basel III, which completes main elements of the post crisis reforms. We remain committed to the full, timely and consistent implementation and finalisation of the reforms and their evaluation to help identify and address any material unintended consequences and ensure that the reforms accomplish their objectives. We look forward to the FSB-led evaluation of the reforms, including their effects on the financing of infrastructure investment and on incentives for central clearing of over-the-counter derivatives. We will continue to address the decline in correspondent banking relationships.

                            We acknowledge that technological innovation, including that underlying crypto-assets, has the potential to improve the efficiency and inclusiveness of the financial system and the economy more broadly. Crypto-assets do, however, raise issues with respect to consumer and investor protection, market integrity, tax evasion, money laundering and terrorist financing. Crypto-assets lack the key attributes of sovereign currencies. At some point they could have financial stability implications. We commit to implement the FATF standards as they apply to crypto-assets, look forward to the FATF review of those standards, and call on the FATF to advance global implementation. We call on international standard-setting bodies (SSBs) to continue their monitoring of crypto-assets and their risks, according to their mandates, and assess multilateral responses as needed.

                            We will continue our work for a globally fair and modern international tax system and welcome international cooperation and pro-growth tax policies. We remain committed to the implementation of the Base Erosion and Profit Shifting package and welcome progress to date. The impacts of the digitalisation of the economy on the international tax system remain key outstanding issues. We welcome the OECD interim report analysing the impact of the digitalisation of the economy on the international tax system. We are committed to work together to seek a consensus-based solution by 2020, with an update in 2019.

                            We have made substantial progress on tax transparency. Further steps to implement transparency standards and requirements for the exchange of information for tax purposes will take place this year. Jurisdictions scheduled to commence automatic exchange of financial account information for tax purposes in 2018 should ensure that all necessary steps are taken to meet this timeline. We call on all jurisdictions to sign and ratify the multilateral Convention on Mutual Administrative Assistance in Tax Matters. We look forward to the OECD’s recommendations on how to further strengthen the criteria for assessing jurisdictions compliance with internationally agreed tax transparency standards. Defensive measures will be considered against listed jurisdictions. We continue to support assistance to developing countries to build their tax capacity. We welcome the first conference of the Platform for Collaboration on Tax and the efforts undertaken to help developing countries implement the new international tax standards. We also encourage countries to enhance tax certainty.

                            We commit to step up our fight against terrorist financing, money laundering and proliferation financing. We call for the full, effective and swift implementation of the FATF standards worldwide. We reaffirm our support for the FATF, as the global anti money laundering and counter terrorist financing standard-setting body, to further strengthen its institutional basis, governance and capacity. We call on FATF to enhance its efforts to counter proliferation financing.

                            Euro and Sterling post data selloff accelerate as delayed reaction

                              Euro and Sterling enter US session as the weakest ones. Economic data from Eurozone and UK missed expectation. But the selloffs accelerate as delayed reactions. Aussie, on the other hand, picks up some strength togther with Dollar, with help from selloff in EUR/AUD.

                              For the week, Sterling is still the strongest one so far. But Euro is turning mixed.

                              New BoJ deputies Wakatabe and Amamiya sound cautious in inaugural press conference

                                The two new BoJ Deputy Governors spoke in the inaugural news conference today.

                                Masazumi Wakatabe said that BoJ sounded cautious as he said BoJ should avoid premature shift in monetary policy. Also, in his view, the central bank shouldn’t hesitate to ease monetary policy further if needed. Nonetheless, she acknowledged that various economic data already showed the positive impacts of current and past ultra loose policy.

                                Masayoshi Amamiya, also emphasized the importance to continue with powerful monetary easy, for achieving improvements in the output gap. He acknowledged that Japan is no longer in deflation. But BoJ hasn’t meet its 2% inflation target yet.

                                Euro dips as German ZEW indicates “Economic Outlook Worsens Considerably”

                                  Euro dips after much weaker than expected sentiment data. German ZEW economic sentiment dropped to 5.1 in March, down from 17.8, below expectation of 13.0. Current situation gauge dropped to 90.7, down from 92.3, above expectation of 90.0. Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment also dropped sharply to 13.4, down from 29.3, missed expectation of 28.1.

                                  ZEW titled the release as “Economic Outlook Worsens Considerably” which is an indication of how bad things turned. ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach noted that “concerns over a US-led global trade conflict have made the experts more cautious in their prognoses. The strong euro is also hampering the economic outlook for Germany, a nation reliant on exports.” But he added that “combined with the experts’ continued positive assessment of the current situation, however, the outlook is still largely positive.”

                                  While EUR/USD drops notable after the release, there is no change in it’s mildly bullish outlook. That is, price actions from 1.2445 are viewed as a corrective pattern. It should have completed with three waves down to 1.2257 already. Or in a worse scenario, it’s extending as a five wave triangle pattern. In either case, further rise is expected soon through 1.2445 to real key resistance at 1.2555.

                                  UK CPI slowed to 2.7% yoy, missed expectation. GBP dips… shallowly

                                    Pound dips mildly after disappoint inflation data but loss is limited. In particular, headline CPI slowed to 2.7% yoy in February, down from 3.0% yoy and missed expectation of 2.8% yoy. The reading doesn’t give any added pressure for BoE to rate interest rate in May. Nonetheless, CPI stays above the mid-point of 2-3% target range. BoE board members should still view the Brexit transition deal as a relief to businesses. And investments could come back with, at least, part of the uncertainties cleared. Know hawks like Michael Saunders and Ian McCafferty could still start pushing for rate hike during this week’s meeting. Hence, there is no sustainable selloff in the pound, just mild retreat.

                                    Here is the list of inflation data:

                                    • CPI Feb: 0.4% mom vs exp 0.5% mom vs prior -0.5% mom
                                    • CPI Feb: 2.7% yoy vs exp 2.8% yoy vsprior 3.0% yoy
                                    • CPI Core Feb: 2.4% yoy vs exp 2.5% yoy vs prior 2.7% yoy
                                    • RPI Feb: 0.8% mom vs exp 0.8% mom vs prior -0.8% mom
                                    • PPI Input Feb: -1.1% mom vs exp -0.9% vs prior 0.7% mom
                                    • PPI Input Feb: 3.4% yoy vs exp 3.8% yoy vs prior 4.7% yoy
                                    • PPI Output Feb: 0.0% mom vs exp 0.1% mom vs prior 0.1% mom
                                    • PPI Output Feb: 2.6% yoy vs exp 2.7% yoy vs prior 2.8% yoy
                                    • PPI Output Core Feb: 0.2% mom vs exp 0.2% mom vs prior 0.3% mom
                                    • PPI Output Core Feb: 2.4% vs exp 2.4% yoy vs prior 2.2% yoy

                                    GBP/USD is staying comfortably above 55H EMA despite the post CPI dip. Recent rise is still on course through 1.4087 to 1.4144 resistance.

                                    Swiss SECO revised up growth and inflation forecasts, warned of escalation to trade war

                                      In this Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs report published today, the government painted a brighter picture of the economy. Growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 were both revised up. Also, 2018 inflation forecast was revised notably higher. The report titled Economy continues dynamic recovery noted that “the economy to continue its dynamic recovery and anticipates strong GDP growth of 2.4% in 2018. The buoyant international economy is supporting foreign trade, while a favourable investment climate is stimulating domestic demand.”

                                      Here are the latest projections

                                      • 2018 GDP forecast at 2.4%, revised UP from prior forecast at 2.3%.
                                      • 2019 GDP forecast at 2.0%, revised UP from prior forecast at 1.9%.
                                      • 2018 CPI forecast at 0.6%, revised notably up from prior forecast at 0.3%
                                      • 2019 CPI forecast at 0.7%, unchanged from prior forecast at 0.7%

                                      The tone of the report was very upbeat as it said “Switzerland’s economy has not looked this healthy since the minimum euro exchange rate was discontinued in early 2015. The upturn gathered increasing momentum and became more broad-based in the second half of 2017.”

                                      Also, “the healthy global economy is boosting international demand for Swiss products and therefore driving foreign trade.” And, “the Expert Group predicts that foreign trade will provide a significant boost to growth in 2018 especially but also in 2019.” Regarding the job market, the reported noted that unemployment has been in ” gradual decline since mid-2016, while employment also stepped up in the second half of 2017.”

                                      Regarding economic risks, SECO saw short-term positive and negative risks are “balanced”. Upturn in global economy could help depreciate the Swiss Franc further and “give the Swiss economy a further boost”. But warned that “protectionist measures recently announced in the US pose negative risks for the global economy.” And, “any escalation to a trade war between the major economic zones would have a considerable dampening effect in the medium-term.”

                                      Besides, the report pointed to recent Italian election as “a certain political uncertainty remains on the international stage.” Unclear Brexit terms and uncertainties in Switzerland’s relationship with the EU are other risks mentioned. Domestically, there is risk of sharp correction in construction sector.

                                      UK CPI release given more significance after Brexit transition deal

                                        According to a Bloomberg survey, majority of economists expected BoE to vote 9-0 to keep interest rate unchanged at 0.50% later this week on Thursday. And, 54% of economists expected BoE to hike interest rate in May. That’s a slight adjustment from 51% at prior survey. However, the data was taken as of March 19. And it’s unsure how much regarding the Brexit transition deal was taken into consideration. And that could only be reflected in the next survey.

                                        The BoE rate decision this Thursday becomes lively as the transition deal is done. UK CPI data to be released today will be the first key factor. Headline CPI is expected to slow from 3.0% yoy to 2.8% yoy in February. Core CPI is expected to slow from 2.7% yoy to 2.5% yoy.

                                        On the one hand, the deal should give BoE policymakers some comfort to restart lifting interest rate from the current ultra low level at 0.50%. On the other hand, any upside surprise in today’s inflation data would indeed give some pressure for BoE to act again.

                                        And for the meeting, ahead, while BoE is still expected to stand pat, the statement could turn more relaxed and optimistic given that the Brexit picture is slightly clearer. And more importantly hawks like Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders might come back to vote for rate hike.

                                        Little surprise from RBA minutes

                                          The RBA minutes for the March contained little surprise. Policymakers remained concerned about the soft inflation outlook, noting faster wage growth is needed to assure a stronger and more sustainable improvement on inflation. As suggested in the minutes, “employment had grown strongly and the unemployment rate had fallen over the preceding year. However, the improvement in overall conditions had not yet translated into a definitive pick-up in wages growth, which remained low”. It added that “further progress on these goals [reducing the unemployment rate and bringing inflation closer to target] was expected over the period ahead, but this process was likely to be gradual”.