German unemployment rate hit record low, but no support to Euro

    German unemployment dropped -19k to 2.373m in March, more than expectation of -15k.

    Unemployment rate dropped from 5.4% to 5.3%, met expectation. That’s also the lowest level on record.

    EUR, however, receives no support from the data. It’s trading down against all major current in the current 4H bar. And for the week, EUR is also reversing much of the earlier gains and is turning mixed.

    The only exception is against CHF, which is trading as the second weakest one for the week, next to JPY. EUR/CHF is still on track to test 1.1832 resistance.

    Swiss KOF: Dropped but still indicates above average growth

      Swiss KOF economic barometer dropped to 106.0 in March, down from 108.4, below expectation of 107.2.

      KOF noted in the release that “notwithstanding this decline, the present position is still on a level clearly above its long-term average.” This indicates that in the near future the Swiss economy should continue to “grow at rates above average”.

      Also noted:

      • The strongest negative contributions to this result come from manufacturing, followed by the indicators from the exporting industry.
        • Within manufacturing, clear negative outlook came from metal, followed by wood, textile and food processing
      • The indicators from the financial sector, from the hospitality industry and those relating to domestic private consumption have remained practically unchanged.

      Japan finance minister Aso: “Definitely avoid” bilateral trade negotiations with US

        Japan finance minister Taro Aso said in the parliament that historically, US Dollar always rise against Japanese Yen when interest rate differentials widened to 3%. Aso added that US interest rates will “undoubtedly rise ahead”. And therefore, there won’t be “one-sided” Yen appreciation that could hurt the economy.

        Regarding trade, Aso emphasized that Japan should “definitely avoid” bilateral trade negotiations with the US. He added that “When two countries negotiate, the stronger country gets stronger. That’s unnecessary (for Japan) so we’ve been saying all along that we would definitely avoid” bilateral trade talks with the United States,

        Japan retail sales rose 0.4% mom, 1.6% yoy. Consumption at start of mild recovery

          Japan retail sales rose 0.4% mom, 1.6% yoy in February, slightly higher than expectation of 0.6% mom, 1.7% yoy. And it’s marked improvement from January’s -1.6% mom, 1.5% yoy.

          It’s noted that consumer spending could be at the beginning of mild recovery. Improvement is also seen lately in the labor market. Overall picture suggests that consumption is going to pick up momentum. And that should eventually help lift. inflation.

          But for now, core inflation is still way off BoJ’s 2% target and it will take some more time for BoJ to start considering stimulus exit.

          UK Gfk Consumer Confidence rose to -7 in March, All five measures improved

            UK Gfk consumer confidence rose to -7 in March, up from -10 and above expectation of -10. All five of the constituent measures recorded higher values. Personal financial situation over the past 12 months rose 3 pts to 3. Personal financial situation over next 12 months rose 5 pts to 10. General economic situation over the last 12 month rose 3 pts to -26. General economic situation over next 12 months rose 4 pts to -22. Major purchase index rose 2 pts to 2. Saving index rose 1 pt to 13.

            Quote from the release:

            “Despite the Beast from the East leaving the nation shivering under a blanket of snow, stoic UK consumers turned faintly bullish this March with a three-point uptick in the Overall Index Score to -7. Spring is in the air with increases across the board on personal finances, the general economy – over the last year and next year – and on current major purchase intentions. The prospect of wage rises finally outstripping declining inflation, high levels of employment with low-level interest rates, and finally some movement on the Brexit front appear to have boosted our spirits. It’s still a little early to be talking about green-shoots, and the core score is of course still negative, but this is definitely a movement in the right direction. Consumers are feeling a tiny spring in their step – let’s see next month if April showers dampen the mood.”

            Full release here.

            New Zealand building consents rose 5.7% mom in Feb

              New Zealand building consents rose 5.7% mom in February verusus 0.0% mom in January.

              Key facts from noted in the release:

              • The seasonally adjusted number of new dwellings consented rose 5.7%.
              • In the year ended February 2018, 31,245 new dwellings were consented, up 3.6%.
              • The annual value of building work consented was $20.4 billion, up 9.9% from the February 2017 year.

              Regional numbers of new dwellings consented in the February 2018 year were:

              • Auckland – up 10% to 11,052
              • Waikato – down 1.2% to 3,469
              • Wellington – up 20% to 2,432
              • Rest of North Island – up 0.6% to 5,794
              • Canterbury – down 14% to 4,962
              • Rest of South Island – up 17% to 3,532 – driven by Otago

              All building consents

              Including alterations, the value of all building work consented in the year ended February 2018 was $20.4 billion, comprising $13.7 billion of residential work and $6.8 million of non-residential work. The annual total value rose 9.9 percent when compared with the February 2017 year.

              Full release here.

              Tech stock recovery short-lived as NASDAQ dropped 0.85%, 10 year yield hit 7-week low

                The recovery in tech stocks in the US proved to be weak and short-lived. NASDAQ hit 7036.09 initially but failed to sustain above 7000 handle. It closed down -59.58 pts or -0.85% at 6949.23. Near term direction is still on the way down considering it’s staying comfortably below falling 55 H EMA. Note that it’s now trying to sustain below 61.8% retracement of 6630.67 to 7637.27. Next target will be 6630.67 key structural support.

                The deterioration in investor sentiments seem to be finally having an impact in the bond markets too. 10 year yield closed down -0.11 to 2.775 after hitting a 7-week low. Safe haven flow is noted as the correction in equity markets look far from being over. TNX is now sitting on 55 day EMA but we’d see it probably dip further to 38.2% retracement of 2.033 to 2.943 at 2.595 before bottoming.

                US Q4 GDP finalized at 2.9%, Muted Reaction, DOW Can’t take out 24000 yet

                  US data wrap up:

                  • GDP annualized Q4 F : 2.9% vs exp 2.7% vs prior est 2.5%
                  • GDP price index Q4 F: 2.3% vs exp 2.3% vs prior est 2.3%
                  • Personal consumption Q4 F : 4.0% vs exp 3.8% vs prior est 3.8%
                  • Core PCE Q4 F Q/Q: 1.9% vs exp 1.9% vs prior est 1.9%
                  • Wholesale inventories mom Feb: 1.1% vs exp 0.5% vs prior 1.0%
                  • Trade balance (USD) Feb: -75.4b vs exp -74.4b vs prior -75.3b
                  • Pending home sales M/M Feb: 3.1% vs exp 2.0% vs prior -4.7%

                  Reactions to the data are rather muted. DOW posts slight gains in early US session but is struggling to break through 24000 handle so far. It remains to be seen whether today’s recovery could sustain. We maintain the near term bearish view that as long as 24453.14 resistance holds, DOW will more likely revisit 23360.29 than not.

                  With markets back to risk on mode, JPY and CHF suffer much selling pressure. So far for today, USD/CHF and USD/JPY are the biggest winner.

                  JPY and CHF lower as stocks rebound in premarket, EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF surge

                    US stocks futures reverse earlier loss and point to a higher open. The move was triggered by news that Facebook is going to streamline privacy settings. Facebook shares trade more than 1% higher in premarket. The development triggers intensified selling in JPY and CHF. Both are in deep red in 4H heatmap.

                    But for now, EUR/JPY is held well below 132.40 resistance, GBP/JPY below 150.92, and USD/JPY below 106.63. There is confirmation of bullish trend reversal in these pairs yet.

                    On the other hand, developments in CHF crosses look more promising. EUR/CHF is on track for a test on 1.1832 resistance.

                    GBP/CHF is even close to equivalent resistance at 1.3491.

                    Based on current momentum, 1.1832 in EUR/CHF and 1.3491 in GBP/CHF could be taken out without much problem.

                    Trump pledges to maintain maximum sanctions and pressure on North Korea “at all cost”

                      Trump tweeted early in the morning:

                      “Received message last night from XI JINPING of China that his meeting with KIM JONG UN went very well and that KIM looks forward to his meeting with me. In the meantime, and unfortunately, maximum sanctions and pressure must be maintained at all cost!”

                      Recall earlier today, China’s official news agency Xinhua reported North Korean Leader Kim Jong-un saying that “the issue of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula can be resolved, if South Korea and the United States respond to our efforts with goodwill, create an atmosphere of peace and stability while taking progressive and synchronous measures for the realization of peace.”

                      Now, does Kim feel that “maximum sanctions and pressure must be maintained at all cost” is something that create peacful and stable atmosphere?

                      Or, does Trump’s “at all cost” mean maintianing maximum pressure even though it will turn North Korea away? Or he actually believes what he said is responding to North Korea with “good will”?

                      Probably, both of them need to go back to school to learn what to say what one means exactly.

                      Germany rumored to be willing to offer concessions to US on trade, European Commission rules that out

                        Bloomberg reported the European Commission urged the region’s governments today to stand united in trade talks with the US, and be ready to “think out of the box fast”. EU is seeking to follow South Korea to get indefinite exemption on the steel and aluminum tariffs by May 1.

                        But, the option of re-negotiation of EU-US free trade agreement is ruled out by EC. Unilateral European concessions to the US is also ruled out. It seems that EC is asking the officials to stay “inside” the box but think “out of” it. Well, there is no logical contradiction.

                        It was also reported by Bloomberg that Germany is adopting a flexible approach in dealing with the US and is willing to offer concession to the US. Germany Chancellor Angel Merkel is believed to be ready to lower the 10% EU tariff on autos to avoid a trade dispute.

                        But that is in total opposite position to France. President Emmanuel Macron is clear in his message that European steel and aluminum exports pose no security threat to the US. And the rules of international trade need to be “reinforced” to ensure such a level playing field.

                        So, the EC’s message seemed to be directed at Germany.

                        AUD/USD falls but will face 4H, D, W pivot S1 confluence

                          Markets are generally back in risk averse mode today. Nikkei lost -286 pts or -1.34% to close at 21031.31. Major European indices are in red in initial trading, with DAX due -1.5%, CAC down -1.3% and FTSE down -0.6%.

                          AUD is a currency that’s usually weighed down by risk aversion. EUR/AUD extended recent rally and reaches as high as 1.6189, and regains upside H action bias.

                          AUD/USD also drops through 0.7671 support to resume whole fall from 0.8135.

                          However, as AUD/USD dips lower, it will face confluence of 4H S1, D S1 and W S1 at 0.7648/9. AUD/USD might struggle to build downside momentum for a short while.

                          New Zealand business confidence: Economy is certainly not crawling, but it’s hardly gliding along

                            New Zealand ANZ business confidence dropped to -20 in March, down from -19. That means a net 20% of businesses are pessimistic about the year ahead.

                            Highlights from the release:

                            • Headline business confidence and firms’ views of their own activity have trodden water in March, both little changed from the preceding month.
                            • Belying the headline measures somewhat, all key activity indicators improved further, albeit while remaining well off their cycle highs.
                            • Pricing indicators were broadly steady

                            ANZ also added:

                            • The economy is certainly not crawling, but it’s hardly gliding along.
                            • Activity indicators increased pretty much across the board but remain below the levels of six months ago.
                            • Our composite growth indicator, which combines business and consumer confidence, continues to suggest growth around 2-3% y/y.
                            • Inflation expectations and pricing intentions were little changed.

                            Full release here.

                            Euro stays strongest after jitters, EURAUD with solid upside bias

                              After some jitters yesterday, EUR remains the strongest major currency for the week as seen in W heatmap. Strength is apparent against USD, GBP and AUD. Meanwhile, JPY is trading as the weakest, followed closely by USD, CHF and AUD.

                              Looking at EURAUD action bias table, the biases are consistent across time frame.

                              And EURAUD is seen as in up trend in 6H, D and W charts. So, the current H neutral could present an opportunity to long EUR/AUD.

                              An intraday strategy could be buying at PP at 1.6120 with a stop below S1 at 1.6081.

                               

                              DOW closed down -1.43% after 737 pts swing, rejected by 24453 resistance

                                DOW initially gained 244 pts to 24446.22 but reversed to closed down -344.89 pts or -1.43% at 23857.71. Considering that it hit as low as 23708.73, that was indeed a massive 737 pts swing. The reversal was mainly because tech stocks were crushed. S&P 500 lost -45.93 pts or -1.73% to 2612.62. NASDAQ suffered most and closed down -211.73 pts or -2.93% at 7008.81. Selloff continues in Asia with Nikkei down -1.8%, HK HSI down -0.9% at the time of writing.

                                Technically, we’ve mentioned before (here) that there will be no change in near term direction before a break of 24453.14 resistance. That is, DOW is expected extend recent decline to 23360.29 and below. The development is no far in line with our near term bearish view.

                                US consumer confidence dropped moderately in March, dollar and stock lack direction

                                  US Conference Board consumer confidence dropped moderately in March to 127.7, missing expectation of 131.0 But it stayed close to 18 year high at 130 in February.

                                  Reaction to the data is muted though. Dollar rebounded earlier today, but it’s struggling to extend gain in US session so far.

                                  Stocks also struggle to find a direction as DOW is trading nearly flat.

                                  USD in counter trend rebound as buying emerges in European session

                                    Buying emerges for USD in European session as seen in the 4H heatmap. And that also majors USD as the strongest one for the day.  H action bias of dollar also turned all up. (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD down means USD up, just in case).

                                    However, it should be noted that firstly, 6H action bias of USD is all neutral. Indeed, USD is in down action bias against EUR and GBP in daily chart. USD is also in down action bias against JPY, GBP and CAD in weekly chart. Hence, the momentum across time frame is not consistent. That means, the current rebound in dollar in counter trend.

                                    For example, for GBP/USD’s we’d prefer to see a break of 1.4075 before weighing the chance of a near term reversal. Otherwise, GBP/USD is seen as in a correction only.

                                    ECB Nowotny: Could reduce asset purchase “significantly” after September

                                      Outspoken ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny commented again today. He said that the central bank will decide on the future of monetary policy in the summer. This is rather apparent as the current EUR 30b per month asset purchase program is set to end in September. Nowotny also said that “if things continue as they are, ECB will be able to reduce asset purchases significantly” after that. While he cautioned not to make any abrupt change to policy, he also emphasized not to fall behind the curve.

                                      Overall, Nowotny’s comments were consistent with his usual stance, which is slightly on the hawkish side of the spectrum.

                                      European Commission: Economic sentiment weakend in all the five largest euro-area economies

                                        Eurozone confidence indciators generally deteriorated in March.

                                        The European commission noted in the release:

                                        Euro area developments

                                        In March, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) decreased markedly in both the euro area (by 1.6 points to 112.6) and the EU (by 1.9 points to 112.5).1 While this is the third consecutive drop, the indicators remain at elevated levels.

                                        The deterioration of euro-area sentiment resulted from drops in industry, services and retail trade. Confidence among consumers remained unchanged, while it increased among construction managers. The ESI weakened in all the five largest euro-area economies; significantly so in Germany (-2.4), Italy (-1.8) and Spain (-1.2) and, less so, in the Netherlands (-0.5) and France (-0.4).

                                        EU developments

                                        The marginally stronger decrease of the headline indicator for the EU (-1.9) was mainly due to the marked deterioration of sentiment in the largest non-euro area EU economies, the UK (-4.2), and Poland (-2.0). In line with the euro area, confidence deteriorated strongly in industry, services, and retail trade, while it increased slightly in the construction sector and remained unchanged among consumers. The fall in EU confidence in the financial services sector was slightly less pronounced than in the euro area.

                                        By contrast to the euro area, EU managers’ employment expectations improved in retail trade, while they remained broadly stable in services. Price expectations differed from the euro area mainly in retail trade, where they decreased markedly.

                                        Full release here.

                                        ECB Liikanen assures no abrupt sudden changes when QE ends

                                          ECB Governing Council member Erkki Liikanen spoke on monetary policy today:

                                          • “We have been careful in our communication,” and “we said we’re extending net asset purchases until September and beyond if needed.”
                                          • “And our monetary policy is and will be data dependent. So we must follow fresh incoming data every time,”
                                          • “A gradual tightening of monetary policy will rest on a more solid basis when indications of inflation rates to potentially temporarily exceed two percent become more prominent in inflation expectations,”
                                          • “The euro area inflation rate is sustainable when the ECB’s price stability objective can be met even without an exceptionally accommodative monetary policy,”
                                          • ” If the economy will be stronger and more convergence will take place, the role of the net asset purchase program will be smaller. And at the same time the other three elements will gain more importance especially forward guidance.”
                                          • But, “there will be no abrupt sudden changes even if one day the net purchases will be finished.”
                                          • “Downside risk is mainly political. We must follow that attentively,”