Gold heading back to 1959 high on weak Dollar

    Gold prices surged in the Asian session today, following a 2% rally on Friday. At the same time, Dollar and Treasury yield were also trading lower. The market was rocked by the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank, which triggered panic and furthered risk aversion. Moreover, it lowered expectations for interest rate hikes as the failure of the second-largest collapse of an American lender in history has raised concerns of potential spillover effects on the financial system.

    Current development argues that Gold’s decline from 1959.47 has completed at 1804.48 already, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. The rise back above 55 day EMA is also a bullish signal. Further rally is expected as long as 1858.06 resistance turned support holds. to retest 1959.47 high.

    It’s still early to call for an upside breakout. But decisive break of 1959.47 will resume whole up trend from 1614.60 to 61.8% projection of 1614.60 to 1959.47 from 1804.48 at 2017.60.

    However, break of 1858.06 will mix up the near term outlook.

    Fed’s Collins eyes prolonged restrictive rates

      Boston Fed President Susan Collins noted overnight her expectation that the central bank may need to maintain interest rates at restrictive levels “for some time” until there’s tangible evidence of inflation moving back to 2% target.

      While acknowledging that the policy rates might currently be near their peak, Collins did not rule out the possibility of additional rate hikes.

      She stated, “And while we are likely near, and could be at, the peak for policy rates, further tightening could be warranted depending on incoming information.”

      Amidst the pervasive economic uncertainties and risks characterizing the current financial climate, Collins remains cautiously optimistic. She believes that the restoration of price stability is achievable, anticipating an “orderly slowdown in activity and only a modest increase in the unemployment rate.”

      US PMI manufacturing dropped to 21-month low, gap opening up with services

        In March, US PMI manufacturing dropped to 52.5, down from 53.0 and missed expectation of 53.6. That’s the lowest level in 21 months. PMI services dropped to 54.8, down from 56.0 and missed expectation of 55.8. PMI composite dropped to 54.3, down from 55.5. That’s a 6-month low too.

        Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

        “US businesses reported a softer end to the first quarter, with output growth easing to the second lowest recorded over the last year. The PMI survey data nevertheless remain encouragingly resilient, indicative of the economy growing at an annualised rate in excess of 2% in the first quarter, suggesting some potential upside to many current growth forecasts.

        “A gap has opened up between the manufacturing and service sectors, however, with goods-producers and exporters struggling amid a deteriorating external environment and concerns regarding the impact of trade wars. The survey is consistent with the official measure of manufacturing production falling at an increased rate in March and hence acting as a drag on the economy in the first quarter.

        “At the moment, the service sector appears to be holding up relatively well. But the worry is that manufacturing woes are spreading to service providers, via reduced demand for services such as transport and storage as well as deteriorating business optimism about the outlook – which fell to the lowest for nearly three years in March – and a cooling of the labour market. The survey showed hiring across both manufacturing and services hit the weakest for just under two years in March.

        “Price pressures have meanwhile cooled alongside the slowdown. Input prices – a key leading indicator of inflation trends – rose at the slowest rate for two years.”

        Full release here.

        Australia trade surplus widened to AUD 8.03B as imports and exports plunged

          Australia exports of goods and services dropped -4% mom, or AUD -1604m, to AUD 35.74B in May. Imports dropped -6% mom, or AUD -1799m, to AUD 27.71B. Trade surplus rose 2% mom to AUD 8.03B, below expectation of AUD 9.0B.

          The trade surplus is seen as remaining elevated and has some how been lifted by the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic. Though, the down trend in both imports and exports showed sluggish domestic and external demands.

          Full release here.

          Australia consumer sentiment jumped 9.4% on RBA pause

            Australia Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index witnessed a significant 9.4% increase in April, jumping from 78.4 in March to 85.8. This remarkable recovery can be largely attributed to RBA’s decision to pause rate hikes during its April meeting, breaking a sequence of ten consecutive meetings with cash rate increases.

            However, confidence remains weak, sitting -10.4% lower than April of the previous year, before the tightening cycle began. Respondents continue to exercise caution, with 34.11% still expecting the Standard Variable Rate to rise by more than 1% over the year, although this figure is down from 44.55%.

            Regarding the RBA’s meeting on May 2, Westpac noted that the central bank would benefit from a clean read on underlying inflation from the March quarter Inflation Report, set to be released on April 26, as well as staff’s refreshed economic forecasts. Westpac anticipates that a final 0.25% increase in the cash rate during the May Board meeting would be the best policy approach, rather than waiting for additional information and risking higher rates later in the cycle.

            Full Australia Westpac consumer sentiment release here.

            Canadian Dollar jumps on stellar retail sales, CPI accelerated

              Canadian Dollar surges sharply in early US session after stellar retail sales data. Headline retail sales rose 2.0% mom in May versus expectation of 0.0% mom. That’s more than offset -1.2% mom contraction in April. Ex-auto sales also jumped 1.4% mom, well above expectation of 0.5% mom.

              Headline CPI accelerated to 2.5% yoy in June as expected. CPI core common was unchanged at 1.9% yoy. CPI core median rose 0.1% to 2.0% yoy. CPI core trim rose 0.1% to 2.0% yoy.

              Now, it really looks like BoC was correct to hike and stays hawkish.

              PBoC Yi: Yuan volatility is normal, rate at reasonable and equilibrium level

                China’s PBoC Governor Yi Gang tried to talk down recent Yuan depreciation despite having USD/CNH nearing the psychological important 7 level. Yi insisted that “the Yuan’s volatility is normal” and its rate is at a “reasonable and equilibrium level”. And, in spite of recent measures in stabilizing the markets, Yi also insisted that PBoC is having a “neutral” monetary policy stance. He said “So if you look at the broad money, if you look at the interest rate and you look at monetary conditions, basically you can have the conclusion that we have a prudent and neutral stance monetary policy.”

                Regarding trade war, Yi said “downside risks from trade tensions are significant.” But he’s confidence that the PBoC has “plenty of monetary instruments in terms of interest rate policy, in terms of required reserve ratio.” And, PBoC has “plenty of room for adjustment, in case we need it”. Besides, he’s also confidence that China is on track to meet its growth target of 6.5% in 2018 and “maybe a little bit more”.

                Yi also pledged in a statement that “China will continue to let the market play a decisive role in the formation of the RMB exchange rate”. And, we will not engage in competitive devaluation, and will not use the exchange rate as a tool to deal with trade frictions.”

                UK NIESR: Energy price guarantees to drive GDP growth higher in Q4

                  NIESR said the -0.3% contraction in UK GDP in August “possibly signalling the beginning of an economic recession”. Given that September PMI pointed to further decrease in the manufacturing sector, it’s likely to continue to drag on the economy in Q3.

                  However, it expects “the energy price guarantees for households and firms announced in September’s fiscal event to drive GDP growth higher in the fourth quarter. The extent to which the measures in the mini-budget will counter the dampening effects of plummeting confidence and increased interest rates will become clearer over the coming months.”

                  Full release here.

                  UK PMIs: Return to growth in Q3, but longer term recovery prospects highly uncertain

                    UK PMI Manufacturing rose to 50.1 in June, up from 40.7, beat expectation of 45.3. The reading is a four-month high, and back in expansion. PMI Services rose to 47.0, up from 29.0, above expectation of 39.4, also a four-month high. PMI Composite rose to 47.6, up from 30.0, a four-month high too.

                    Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:

                    “June’s PMI data add to signs that the economy looks likely return to growth in the third quarter… However, … the longer term recovery prospects remain highly uncertain…. Uncertainty over recovery prospects and job prospects also mean demand for many goods, especially non-essential big-ticket items, is likely to remain weak for many months, with Brexit uncertainty also continuing to cast a shadow over the economy.

                    “Our forecasting team therefore expects the economy to contract by 11.9% this year before expanding by a relatively modest 4.9% in 2021, which is far more cautious than the 15% surge anticipated in 2021 by the Bank of England.”

                    Full release here.

                    Swiss KOF dropped to 103.5, retail sales rose 3.1% yoy

                      Swiss KOF Economic Barometer dropped to 103.5 in November, down from 106.6, above expectation of 101.0. The barometer is thus moving towards its long-​term average, which means that the outlook for the Swiss economy remains subdued also in view of the current pandemic situation.

                      Also from Swiss, retail sales rose 3.1% yoy in October.

                      RBNZ stands pat, long-term inflation expectations remain anchored

                        New Zealand Dollar rebounds strongly after RBNZ surprised the markets by keeping OCR unchanged at 1.00%. There were some expectation of a cut to 0.75%. But RBNZ opted for a hold and just noted “interest rates will need to remain at low levels for a prolonged period”, and pledged to “add further monetary stimulus if needed.”

                        The RBNZ Committee noted “recent increases in wage and non-tradables inflation” as ‘expected outcome of monetary stimulus transmitting through the economy.” There was “slight decline in one- and two-year ahead survey measures of inflation expectations”. But “long-term inflation expectations remain anchored at close to the 2 percent target mid-point and market measures of inflation expectations have increased from their recent lows.”

                        Meanwhile the two options of keeping OCR at 1% versus lowering to 0.75% were debated. “Both actions were broadly consistent with the current OCR projection”. There was a consensus to stand pat. ” The Committee noted that the risks to the economy in the near term were tilted to the downside and agreed it would add further monetary stimulus if economic developments warranted it.”

                        NZD/USD’s strong rebound suggests that pull back from 0.6465 has completed completed at 0.6322, after breaching 0.6333 support briefly. Rise from 0.6203 might still be in progress. Focus is back 0.6465/6481 resistance zone. Sustained break there will be an early sign of medium term bullish reversal. On the downside, break of 0.6322 will retain medium term bearishness and bring retest of 0.6203 low first.

                        EU Tusk: Chequers plan indicated positive evolution, calls for Nov summit on Brexit

                          Just ahead of the EU leaders summit in Salzburg, Austria, European Council President Donald Tusk said he would call for an extra summit in November for Brexit. He said in a news confidence “the Brexit negotiations are entering their decisive phase. Various scenarios are still possible today but I’d like to stress that some of Prime Minister May’s proposals from Chequers indicated positive evolution in the UK’s approach.”

                          He added that “today there is perhaps more hope but there is surely less and less time”, and “every day that is left we must use for talks. I’d like to finalize them still this autumn.” However, he also noted that the part in UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s Chequers plan
                          “will need to reworked and further negotiated”.

                          Yesterday, Tusk laid down three key Brexit issues to focus on at the Salzburg meeting, including:

                          • First, we should reach a common view on the nature and overall shape of the joint political declaration about our future partnership with the UK.
                          • Second, we will discuss how to organise the final phase of the Brexit talks, including the possibility of calling another European Council in November.
                          • Third, we should reconfirm the need for a legally operational backstop on Ireland, so as to be sure that there will be no hard border in the future.

                          China announced retaliation tariffs on soybean, agricultural products, automobiles

                            China announced retaliation tariffs on US importants, including soybean, agricultural products, automobiles. These products are valued at around USD 34B, will be subjected to 25% tariffs, starting July 6, 2018.

                            China would also impose 25% tariffs on other products, valued at around USD 16B, including  chemicals, medical equipment, and energy products. Effective date is to be determined.

                            Below is the “google-translated” statement. Original statement in simplified Chinese could be found here.

                            Announcement on Imposing Tariff on Certain Products Originating in the United States

                            On June 15, 2018, the U.S. government announced that it would impose an import tariff of 25% on China’s 50 billion U.S. dollar products, including levied tariffs on about US$34 billion of Chinese exports to the US The measures will be implemented on July 6. Additional tariff measures for the remaining US$16 billion will further seek public opinions. The United States disregards China’s resolute opposition and solemn representations and insists on taking actions that violate the rules of the World Trade Organization. It seriously violates China’s legitimate rights and interests under the rules of the World Trade Organization and threatens China’s economic interests and security.

                            Regarding the emergency situation caused by the United States’ violation of its international obligations to China, and in order to defend its legitimate rights and interests, China decided to rely on the laws and regulations of the Foreign Trade Law of the People’s Republic of China and other basic principles of international law on soybean, agricultural products , automobiles , and water originating in the United States. Products and other imported goods are subject to tariff levying measures at a tax rate of 25%, involving about 34 billion U.S. dollars in imports from the United States in 2017 (see Annex 1). The above measures will take effect from July 6, 2018.

                            At the same time, China intends to impose an import tariff of 25% on commodities imported from the United States, including chemicals, medical equipment, and energy products, involving approximately US$16 billion in US imports from the United States in 2017 (see Annex 2), final measures, and effective time. Will be announced separately .

                            Annex:

                            List of Customs Tariff Commissions of the State Council Concerning the Collection of Customs Products for the United States and Canada.pdf

                            The Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council issues a list of tariffs on the United States and Canada.pdf

                            China Shanghai SSE composite completed double bottom reversal pattern

                              Optimism over US-China trade negotiation gave Chinese stocks a strong boost today. The Shanghai SSE composite gained 2.68% or 71.97 pts to close at 2754.35. Technically, SSE is now considered takeout 2703.51 resistance decisively. That also completes a double bottom reversal pattern (2449.19, 2440.90).

                              There are various ways to view the rise from 2440.90. For now, we’d treat it as a corrective rebound, correcting the down trend from 3587.03. Thus, strong resistance could be seen at 38.2% retracement of 3587.03 to 2440.90 at 2883.84 to limit upside. That’s also quite close to 55 week EMA (now at 2817.49).

                              Fed’s Daly: Inflation hedge unnecessary, dismisses rate cuts notion

                                San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, in an interview with Germany’s Börsen-Zeitung newspaper, expressed confidence in the current state of monetary policy, stating that “policy is in a very good place” as Fed has “raised the key interest rate significantly.”

                                She further mentioned, “We don’t need an insurance mentality now, where we hedge against rising inflation. We should simply be patient and remain vigilant.”

                                Regarding future rate adjustments, Daly clarified, “I’m not thinking about rate cuts at all right now.” She emphasized her current focus on evaluating whether the current level of monetary tightening is sufficient to restore price stability.

                                Daly also provided an optimistic view of the economy, noting, “Our inflation data are improving and our real economy has not stalled.” She added, “I don’t see a recession on the horizon at the moment.”

                                UK OBR: Coronavirus is like a wartime situation

                                  Robert Chote, head of the Office for Budget Responsibility, said to the UK parliament that the government needs to unveil a big stimulus package that will help all businesses to counter the coronavirus impact.

                                  He noted, “the lesson of earlier crises is that one sector’s problems in a situation like this quickly become every other sector’s problems.” Also, “this is not a time to be squeamish about one off additions to public sector debt. It’s more like a wartime situation,” he added.

                                  Sir Charlie Bean, OBR member and former BoE deputy governor, said coronavirus hit “ought to be different from the financial crisis. ” “There isn’t a fundamental structural problem in the economy that needs correcting, at least in the most part.”

                                  Eurosceptic Savona: I never asked to leave indispensable Euro

                                    The known Eurosceptic Italian Minister for European Affairs Paolo Savona said he fully backed the Euro as it’s “indispensable” even though the currency union needs to be “perfected” in regards to its system of governance. He urged that the ECB should be given a “new statute” similar to Federal Reserve. And, it’s “fundamental that the ECB should be able to act on exchange rates.” A so called “Plan B” was laid out in his book, written just before becoming minister, for an orderly exit from Euro if necessary. Savona emphasized that was written as a “analyst”. He said “there is no plan B and I never asked to leave.”

                                    Savona, who has been highly critical on Germany, said that it’s a “great country from many points of view, culturally, economically and politically.” But he pointed out a major difference between him and many German economists. He noted that “they tend to see stability as a necessary condition for growth, while I am part of a group who sees growth as a necessary condition for stability.”

                                    Italy was nearly in another political an constitutional crisis after President Sergio Mattarella vetoed Savona as economy minister. The anti-establiahment coalition of 5-Star Movement and the League quitted forming the government. But then, they came back with Giovanni Tria as Economy Minister and kept Savona in the cabinet as Minister for European Affairs

                                    US trade deficit widened to USD 64.2B, both imports and exports dropped

                                      US goods trade deficit widened 7.2% mom to USD 64.2B in March, up from February’s USD 59.9B. Exports of goods dropped USD -9.1B to USD 127.6B. Imports of goods dropped USD -4.8B to US 19.9B. Wholesales inventories dropped -1.0% mom to USD 650B.

                                      Full release here.

                                      DOW broke last week’s high while Trump returned to White House

                                        US stocks closed with strong gains overnight while President Donald Trump also returned to the White House after a three-night hospital stay due to coronavirus infection. DOW ended up 1.68%, S&P 500 rose 1.80%. NASDAQ rose 2.32%.

                                        DOW and S&P 500 led this time, breaking through last week’s high while NASDAQ lagged. Clear support is seen from 55 day EMA (now at 27393.73) for now. Further rise should be seen to retest 29199.35 in the near term. Though, we’re not expecting a clean break there yet. Another fall is still likely before the consolidation from 29199.35 completes.

                                        Trump expects to meet Xi at G20, or raise tariffs

                                          Trump said yesterday that he and Chinese President Xi are “scheduled to have a meeting” at the G20 summit in Osaka. He added, “We’re expected to meet and if we do that’s fine, and if we don’t — look, from our standpoint the best deal we can have is 25% on $600 billion.”

                                          And, “if we don’t have a deal and don’t make a deal, we’ll be raising the tariffs, putting tariffs on more than — we only tax 35% to 40% of what they said then they had another 60% that’ll be taxed.”

                                          He repeated, “China is going to make a deal because they’re going to have to make a deal”. Also, “at the same time it could be very well that we do something with respect to Huawei as part of our trade negotiation with China. China very much wants to make a deal. They want to make a deal much more than I do, but we’ll see what happens.”