UK CPI slowed to 6.7%, BoE’s hike tomorrow could be the last

    Sterling is facing headwinds after release of UK’s CPI inflation data, which came in lower than market forecasts. This development strengthens the speculation that BoE might be drawing curtains on its tightening cycle, with the one more hike expected tomorrow potentially being the concluding move.

    The reported data illustrated deceleration in CPI from of 6.8% yoy to 6.7% yoy in August, a result that fell short of the projected escalation to 7.1% yoy. This is the lowest rate witnessed since February 2022.

    A deeper dive into the components reveals that this softening of annual CPI into August 2023 emerged from six out of the 12 sectors. Notably, restaurants and hotels, along with food and non-alcoholic beverages, played a pivotal role in pulling down the numbers. However, the motor fuels category within the transport sector exerted upward pressure, somewhat counterbalancing the decline.

    Furthermore, core CPI, which is calculated by excluding variables such as energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, followed suit, decelerating from 6.9% yoy to 6.2% yoy. This stands significantly below anticipated rate of 6.8% yoy.

    Breaking it down further, while CPI goods noted a slight acceleration from 6.1% yoy to 6.3% yoy, CPI services delineated a slowdown from 7.4% yoy to 6.8% yoy.

    For the month. CPI rose 0.3% mom in August, below expectation of 0.7% mom.

    Full UK CPI release here.

     

    ECB Lagarde reiterates optionality, gradualism and flexibility in monetary policy

      ECB President Christine Lagarde said in a speech, the impact of the factors driving up inflation currently “should fade over time”. But for the near term, “inflationary risks are tilted to the upside”. Over the medium-term, ” risks to the inflation outlook could arise if wages rise by more than anticipated, longer-term inflation expectations move above target or supply conditions durably worsen”.

      But so far, “wage growth has remained muted – despite a strong labour market – and inflation expectations in the euro area stand around our target”.

      On monetary policy, Lagarde said it will “depend on the incoming data and our evolving assessment of the outlook”. ECB would maintain “optionality, gradualism and flexibility” in the conduct of monetary policy.

      Full speech here.

      GB/CHF dives as poor UK data adds to BoE easing case

        GBP/CHF drops sharply today as poor GDP and production data add to the case of imminent BoE easing. Technically, rise form 1.1674 should have completed at 1.3310, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, ahead of 1.3399 structural resistance.

        Now, with 38.2% retracement of 1.1674 to 1.3310 at 1.2865 firmly taken out. Deeper fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2299. However, such decline is currently seen as a correction. We’d expect strong support from 1.2299 to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, but break to 1.2854 resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall. Otherwise, risk will remain on the downside in case of recovery.

        Japan PM Abe to raise retirement age beyond 65

          Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said in a Nikkei Asian Review interview that while, BoJ hasn’t reached the 2% inflation target yet, Japan is “no longer in deflation”. And Abe emphasized “what we are really focused on is employment.” He outlined a plan to overhaul the social security system for the new three years.

          Abe intend to raise retirement age beyond 65. And he said “more labor participation would boost economic growth, raise tax revenue and generate more social security premium receipts.” The first year of his next three year term will focus on labor issues. Pension and medical care system will be tackled in the following two years.

          Additionally, Abe pledged to ease the impact of the planned sales take hikes, from 8% to 10% with “bold countermeasures”.

          He also played down the threats of US trade policy and said “the U.S. and Japan share a broader goal of expanding bilateral trade and investment for the benefit of both countries and achieving a free and open Indo-Pacific based on fair trade.”

          Abe will compete with former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba in a ruling party leadership contest on September 20.

          US trade deficit widened to -67.1B in Aug

            US exports of goods and services rose 2.2% mom to USD 171.9B in August. Import rose 3.2% mom to USD 239B. Trade deficit widened to USD -67.1B, larger than expectation of USD -66.2B. Year-to-date, goods and services deficit rose USD 22.6B, or 5.7%, from the same period in 2019. Average monthly exports for the three months rose USD 10.0B to USD 165.2B. Average monthly imports rose USD 13.1B to USD 226.6B.

            Full release here.

            Eurozone PMI composite fell to 35-month low, moving from bad to worse

              Eurozone economy appears to be on shaky ground, with the latest PMI figures showing continued deterioration. October saw Manufacturing PMI slide to 43.0 from 43.4, while Services PMI dropped to a concerning 32-month low of 47.8, down from 48.7. Composite PMI wasn’t left behind, recording a 35-month low at 46.5, down from 47.2.

              Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, stated, “In the Eurozone, things are moving from bad to worse.” He highlighted that manufacturing has been grappling with a slump for over a year now. When examining the top Eurozone players, France and Germany, de la Rubia noted that their manufacturing downturns are almost on par.

              However, it’s not all gloom for France in the services sector. Despite a lower activity index compared to Germany, France showcases some resilience with new businesses not declining as rapidly. Moreover, companies in France are steadily adding jobs rather than eliminating them.

              Another noteworthy aspect is the persistent price increases within the services sector. Comparing it to prior economic downturns, inflation for both input prices and prices charged has only marginally slowed down. This trend might be challenging for ECB. As de la Rubia points out, “these figures reinforce the case of a pause in the interest rate cycle instead of thinking aloud about loosening monetary policy.”

              Full Eurozone PMI release here.

              German ZEW improved significantly as major risks considered less dramatic

                German ZEW Economic Sentiment improved notably to -3.6 in March, up from -13.4 and beat expectation of -11.0. German ZEW Current Situation, however dropped to 11.1, down from 15.0 and missed expectation of 13.0. Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment improved to -2.5, up from -16.6 and beat expectation of -15.1. Eurozone ZEW Current Situation also dropped to -6.6, down from -3.0.

                ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach said in release that the significant improvement shows that “major economic risks are considered to be less dramatic than before”. Those include possible delay in Brexit and renewed hope for a deal. Also, “progress made in the negotiations between China and the US to end the trade war between the two nations may also have contributed”. Still the indicators point to “relatively weak growth” in first half in Germany.

                Full release here.

                US initial jobless claims dropped to 2.4m, continuing claims rose to 25m

                  US initial jobless claims dropped -249k to 2438k in the week ending May 16. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -501k to 3042k. Continuing claims rose 2525k to 25073k in the week ending May 9. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 2314k to 22002k.

                  Full release here.

                  New Zealand GDP grew record 13% qoq in Q3, NZD/USD upside breakout

                    New Zealand GDP grew 14.0% qoq in Q3, stronger than expectation of 12.8% qoq. That’s also the largest quarterly rise on record. However, on an annual bases, GDP dropped -2.2% over the year. Growth in Q3 was not enough to fully makeup for the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic and the responding measures.

                    Looking at some more details, Services industries rose 11.1% qoq. Goods-producing industries rose 26.0% qoq. Primary industries rose 4.6% qoq.

                    Full release here.

                    NZD/USD broke out to the upside after the release. Further rise is expected as long as 0.7054 minor support holds. Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 0.5920 to 0.6797 from 0.6589 at 0.7131, could bring upside re-acceleration. Next target is 100% projection at 0.7466.

                    However, considering relatively weak upside momentum as seen in daily MACD, break of 0.7054 support will indicate rejection by 0.7131. That’s also an early sign of short term topping. Deep pull back could be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 0.6883).

                    BoC tapers asset purchase to CAD 2B per week, no hike until H2 next year

                      BoC left overnight rate unchanged at effective lower bound of 0.25% as widely expected. Bank rate and deposit rate are held at 0.50% and 0.25% respectively. It maintained the forward guidance that conditions for rate hike is expected to happen “some time in the second half of 2022”.

                      The central bank also continued tapering and reduce weekly asset purchase target to CAD 2B, down from CAD 3B. It said that, “this adjustment reflects continued progress towards recovery and the Bank’s increased confidence in the strength of the Canadian economic outlook.”

                      As third wave of coronavirus slowed growth in Q2, BoC now expects around 6% GDP growth in 2021, “a little slower than was expected in April”. But it has revised up its 2022 forecast to 4.50% and projects 3.25% growth in 2023.

                      On inflation,with higher gasoline prices and on-going supply bottlenecks, it’s likely to “remain above 3 percent through the second half of this year”, then ease back to 2% in 2022.

                      Full statement here.

                      US Empire State manufacturing rose to 30.9, employees and price paid surged

                        US Empire State Manufacturing Survey general business conditions jumped to 30.9 in November, up from 19.8, above expectation of 20.2. 43% of respondents reported improved conditions while 12% reported worsened conditions.

                        New orders rose 5 pts to 28.8. Shipment jumped 19 pts to 28.2. Delivery times dropped -5.8 to 38.0. Number of employees jumped 9 pts to 26.0, a record high. Average workweek also jumped 8 pts to 23.1. Price paid rose 4 pts to 83.0. Price paid rose 7 pts to 50.8, a record high.

                        Full release here.

                        EU Barnier: More than 11 month needed for comprehensive agreement with UK

                          EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier warned that more time than 11 months is needed to complete a comprehensive agreement with UK. He said in a speech that “we simply cannot expect to agree on every single aspect of this new partnership in under one year.”

                          “We are ready to do our best and to do the maximum in the 11 months to secure a basic agreement with the UK, but we will need more time to agree on each and every point of this political declaration,” he added.

                          US CPI unchanged at 1.4% yoy in Jan, core CPI slowed to 1.4% yoy

                            US CPI rose 0.3% mom in January, matched expectations. Core CPI rose 0.0% mom, below expectation of 0.2% mom. Annually, headline CPI was unchanged at 1.4% yoy, below expectation of 1.5% yoy. Core CPI slowed to 1.4% yoy, down from 1.6% yoy, missed expectation of 1.6% yoy.

                            Full release here.

                            BoJ’s Dec meeting highlights lack of urgency in tightening

                              Summary of Opinions of BoJ’s December 18-19 meeting revealed a prevailing view among the board members on a lack of urgency in tightening monetary policy. The consensus was that delaying the decision to tighten poses minimal risk. This general sentiment indicates BoJ’s preference for a measured approach, prioritizing stability and sufficient data before considering changes.

                              The summary acknowledged that the sustainable and stable achievement of price stability target, set at 2%, is not yet certain. In considering whether to end the negative interest rate policy and yield curve control framework, the board stressed the importance of confirming a virtuous cycle between wages and prices.

                              To reach the 2% inflation target sustainably, one member noted that “growth momentum in nominal wages needs to strengthen further”. It’s also noted that wage growth has not kept pace with inflation. And, even with potentially higher wage hikes in the spring, the risk of inflation significantly surpassing 2% remains “low”. Current policy approach does not risk “falling behind the curve” in response to inflation dynamics.

                              The summary also noted that acknowledged that the need to “rapidly tighten monetary policy is small”. At the same time, “the cost incurred if this risk materializes would be significant.”

                              Full BoJ Summary of Opinions here.

                              ECB Lagarde: Conditions for rate hike very unlikely to be satisfied next year

                                In a European Parliament committee hearing, ECB President Christine Lagarde said, “growth momentum is moderating to some extent owing to supply bottlenecks and the rise in energy prices.” Consumer spending is “solid”, but shortages of materials, equipment and labour are “weighing on manufacturing production, weakening the near-term outlook.” “Although the duration of supply constraints is uncertain, they are likely to persist for several months and gradually ease only during 2022,” she added.

                                Lagarde also reiterated that the upswing in inflation is driven by three primary forces, energy prices, demand outpacing constrained supply, and reversal effect of German VAT cut. “The latter factor will fall out of the inflation calculation from January 2022 but the other two may last longer.” “As a result, we still see inflation moderating in the next year, but it will take longer to decline than originally expected,” she said.

                                On monetary policy, she said the conditions for rate hike are “very unlikely to be satisfied next year”. Intentions on further calibration of bond purchases will be announced in December. But “even after the expected end of the pandemic emergency, it will still be important that monetary policy – including the appropriate calibration of asset purchases – supports the recovery throughout the euro area and the sustainable return of inflation to our target of two per cent.”

                                Full introductory statement here.

                                Japan CPI core turned negative for the first time since 2016

                                  Japan slipped back into deflation as data released today show. All item CPI slowed to 0.1% yoy in April, down form 0.4% yoy. CPI core (all-item less fresh food), dropped to -0.2% yoy, down from 0.4% yoy. That’s the first negative core CPI reading since December 2016. CPI core-core (all-item less energy, fresh food) slowed to 0.2%, down from 0.6% mom.

                                  The data suggests clear downward pressure on prices due to coronavirus containment pressure. Also, core CPI could head deeper into negative territory as services and energy inflation wane ahead.

                                  US Pompeo announces new Iran-related sanctions on some Chinese entities

                                    US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo announced new Iran-related sanctions on some Chinese entities. He said at conference that “we’re telling China and all nations, know that we will sanction every violation of sanctionable activity.” And, “the United States will intensify our efforts to educate countries and companies on the risk of doing business with IRGC entities and we will punish them if they persist in defiance of our warnings.”

                                    The Treasury Department said that, based on Pompeo’s determination”, it would sanction COSCO Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. and COSCO Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Seaman & Ship Management Co., along with a few other companies and a slew of individuals. These companies are believed to have transported oil from Iran and their executive officers.

                                    US to start tariffs on EU aircraft and farm products on Oct 1

                                      WTO arbitration decided yesterday that US can move forward to impose some USD 7.5B in tariffs on EU goods annually, to counteract years of European loans and subsidies to Airbus. US Trade Representative hailed that as the “largest award” in WTO history, and nearly twice the largest previous award.

                                      US will now impose tariffs on a range of imports from EU member states, with the bulk of the tariffs being applied to imports from France, Germany, Spain, and UK. 10% tariffs would be applied on large civil aircraft, 25% on agricultural and other products. USTR also said that “The US has the authority to increase the tariffs at any time, or change the products affected.”

                                      Robert Lighthizer also noted in a statement that “the United States will begin applying WTO-approved tariffs on certain EU goods beginning October 18. We expect to enter into negotiations with the European Union aimed at resolving this issue in a way that will benefit American workers.”

                                      BoE’s Haskel advocates holding rates amid tight labor market

                                        BoE MPC member Jonathan Haskel highlighted in a speech that assuming no further shocks, inflation will depend on the “interaction of a tight labour market and second-round effects as previous inflation works its way through the wage-price system.”

                                        Haskel emphasized that the MPC is closely monitoring labor market conditions and underlying inflationary indicators, particularly services inflation.

                                        He expressed concerns about the current state of the labor market, stating, “The labour market continues to be tight, and I worry it is still impaired. I would rather hold rates until there is more certainty that underlying inflationary pressures have subsided sustainably.”

                                        Full speech of BoE’s Haskel here.

                                        G20 see economic outlook as less negative

                                          G20 finance ministers and central banks see the global economic outlook as “less negative”. They are going to pledge to “sustain and strengthen” policy actions and “facilitate international” trade and enticements. Also, G20 will agree to freeze on the servicing of official bilateral debt for poor countries for another six months.

                                          “The outlook is less negative with global economic activity showing signs of recovery as our economies have been gradually reopening and the positive impacts of our significant policy actions started to materialize,” the draft of the communique showed. “We will sustain and strengthen as necessary our policy response, considering the different stages of the crisis, to secure a stable and sustainable recovery.”

                                          “We will continue to facilitate international trade, investment and to build resilience of supply chains to support growth, productivity, innovation, job creation and development”.