Fed Kashkari: Trade war uncertainty scaring people a little bit

    Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari urged fed policy makers “should all be paying attention” to the escalation in trade tension between Trump and China. For now, “it’s too soon for any of us to judge” and “none of us knows how to weigh the probability of these different outcomes.” And, “how that washes out in overall inflation I think is hard to judge.”

    He said the impact to the economy is unknown for the moment as “this could be a lot of chest pounding”. Or, “it could lead to a trade war.” The end results, even something in the middle as usual during negotiations, could prompt business and investors to “pull back” and that could impact economic growth. Also, “the impact on Main Street is going to be seen over the long term.”

    Kashkari also noted that “uncertainty I think is scaring people a little bit.”

    Fed dove Evans supports more rate hikes

      Chicago Fed Charles Evans, a clearly known dove, expressed his optimism that inflation will hit 2% target and support for gradual rate hike on Saturday. He pointed to fiscal policy that “has been much more supportive of further growth”. Hence, “the need for accommodative monetary policy is less than it was before.”

      And, now, given the “very strong” national economy and labor market, he would be surprised is inflation couldn’t meet target. Evans added, “continuing our slow, gradual increases will be appropriate to get us to the point where monetary policy isn’t really providing more lift to the economy.”

      Fed Powell: Connection between unemployment and inflation “still persists”

        Fed chair Jerome Powell sounded upbeat in his speech on ” The Outlook for the U.S. Economy” last Friday. He acknowledged that “the labor market has been strong, and my colleagues and I on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) expect it to remain strong.” And, inflation is expected to ” move up in coming months and to stabilize around 2 percent over the medium term.” Powell also pointed to others signs of strengthen including “steady income gains, rising household wealth, and elevated consumer confidence”. Powell also noted that the connection between unemployment rate and inflation has “clearly weakened” over the past couple of decades. But he emphasized that the connection “still persists”. And “it continues to be meaningful for monetary policy.”

        Regarding monetary policy, Powell said that “as long as the economy continues broadly on its current path, further gradual increases in the federal funds rate will best promote these goals” of price stability and full employment. He repeated what others have said that ” raising rates too slowly would make it necessary for monetary policy to tighten abruptly down the road, which could jeopardize the economic expansion.” On the other hand, “raising rates too quickly would increase the risk that inflation would remain persistently below our 2 percent objective.” And Fed’s gradual path is aiming at balancing these two risks.

        Regarding recent tensions between Trump and China on trade, Powell noted that “the discussion about trade is at a relatively early stage”. And, “people really don’t see yet any impact for the near-term outlook.” However, he did noted that business leaders have already expressed their concerns to Fed officials that “changes in trade policy have become a risk to the medium-term outlook.”

        DOW quickly pares losses, GBP leads Europeans higher

          DOW opened lower as Trump chose escalation rather than negotiation with China. The Chinese Global Times reported that there was no negotiation taken place. White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow also said negotiations have not really begun yet. So, without starting negotiations, the US has already fired three shots (the 232 steel tariff, 301 tariffs and triple up 301 tariffs). Is there really any intention for talks?

          Anyway, DOW drops to as low as 24245.02 initial trading but quickly recovers. It’s not back pressing 24400 handle, down just around -100 pts. Technically, we maintain the firstly, price actions 23360.29 are forming a corrective pattern. Rejection from trend line resistance (now at 24838) will make it a triangle. Break of the trend line will push DOW to 25449.25/25800.35 zone to make it a rectangle. Despite today’s retreat, we’d expect more upside in the near term for at least a take on the trend line.

          In the forex markets, European majors are generally strong, led by GBP today. CAD is only up against USD and NZD despite some solid job data. NZD and USD are the weakest ones. In particular, after initial hesitation, traders finally decide to sell USD after the weaker than expected NFP report.

          Briefer than brief press briefing of China MOFCOM

            China Ministry of Commerce Spokesman Gao Feng delivered a rather unimpressive briefing, in response to US President Donald Trump’s proposal of tariffs on additional USD 100b of products. Gao just said that US action is extremely wrong, and with misjudgment in the situation. He pledged that China is ready and won’t hesitate to retaliate. And there will be immediately action is the US releases the USD 100b tariff list. Gao claimed that China has very detailed retaliatory measures.

            Basically, Gao just said that we’re ready to hit the ball back hard. But it’s now still in your court.

            Big miss for headline NFP, but wage growth solid. USD/CAD dives

              US non farm payrolls come in much weaker than expected, showing 103k growth in March only, versus expectation of 189k. Prior month’s figure was revised up from 313k to 326k. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1% versus expectation of 4.0%. Nonetheless, average hourly earnings rose 0.3% mom, meeting expectation.

              Canada employment grew 32.3k in March, way above expectation of 20k. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.8%, meeting consensus.

              Dollar is trading lower against most major currencies on the head line NFP number. It remains to be seen if the solid wage growth number could give it enough support.

              USD/CAD is at the center of attention regarding the batch data in early US session. Apparently, market are responding with a selloff in the pair after the releases.

              Markets steady as traders await China press briefing on US tariffs

                While news that Trump is pushing for additional tariffs on another USD 100b of Chinese imports might raise some eyebrows, markets reactions are so far muted. At the time of writing, DAX is trading down -0.47%, CAC down -0.45% and FTSE down -0.19% only. The forex markets are bounded in yesterday’s range in general, except that some weakness is seen in NZD.

                Traders are most likely waiting for a formal response from China. The MOFCOM is going to hold a press briefing at 8pm Beijing time, 1200GMT today, while the country is on holiday.

                Separately, South Korea has notified WTO of the plan to suspend tariff concessions on USD 480m of US imports, in response to US measures against the country. The Trade Ministry said it’s in equal value to South Korean washing machines and solar panels affected by the US tariffs.

                ECB Cœuré: “Winding back globalisation is the wrong solution”

                  ECB Executive Board member Benoît Cœuré warned of “consequence of protectionism” in a speech at a workshop today.

                  A few from the speech to note:

                  • “Greater global economic integration has boosted living standards worldwide and lifted millions out of poverty.”
                  • “Winding back globalisation is the wrong solution.” And, “a retreat from openness will only fuel more inequality as import prices rise, goods become dearer and real incomes fall.”
                  • “The distributional and social effects of greater economic integration should rather be addressed by targeted policies that achieve fairer outcomes.”
                  • “By allowing Member States to recover some of the state functions that have been eroded by globalisation, the European Union is a vehicle that brings the benefits of economic openness to the greatest number of its citizens while protecting them against untrammelled global forces. It represents the most progressive model we have for taking back control of globalisation by addressing people’s concerns over open markets and fair competition – doubts that individual countries on their own cannot dispel.”

                  Here is the full speech.

                  China pledges to figh US unilateralism and protectionism “to the end, and at any cost”

                    The Ministry of Commerce issued a quick response to Trump’s intention to add tariffs to additional USD 100b of Chinese imports, while they’re on holiday.

                    In a statement, China pledged to fight US unilateralism and protectionism “to the end, and at any cost”. And China will “firmly attack, using new comprehensive countermeasures, to firmly defend the interest of the nation and its people.”

                    The MOFCOM blamed that the the US “single-handedly started the trade conflicts”. And it added that it’s “provocation of unilateralism of the US to global free trade”.

                    This is sort of the expected response from China.

                    Here is the statement from MOFCOM (in Simplified Chinese).

                    NFP Expectation: 189k growth, unemployment to drop to 4.0%, wage growth at 0.3%

                      While the trade war drama continues, with intention of escalation from Trump, there are other issues that’s worth a look. Non-farm payroll report is still a major focus of the day.

                      Markets are expecting NFP to show 189k growth in March, down from February’s 313k. Unemployment rate is expected to drop further to 4.0%. Wage growth remains the key for Fed’s tightening path. Average hourly earnings are expected to grow 0.3% mom in March.

                      Here is a summary of preceding job data:

                      • ADP private sector jobs grew a solid 241k
                      • ISM manufacturing employment dropped to 57.3, down fro 59.7
                      • ISM non-manufacturing employment rose to 56.6, up from 55.0
                      • Conference board consumer confidence dropped to 127.7, down from 130.0

                      The data were solid even though they don’t point to that stellar 313k job growth in February. But 189k should be easy to achieve.

                      Here are some other NFP previews that’s worth a look:

                      Market response to Trump: Nikkei flat, HSI up, FX in yesterday’s ranges

                        Market reactions to the news that Trump is trying to triple down on the tariffs on Chinese products are so far mild. Nikkei has been fluctuating between gain and loss and is trading nearly flat at the time of writing. While China is still away on holiday, Hong Kong is back with HSI trading up 1.26%.

                        In the current markets, major pairs and crosses are trading inside Friday’s range as seen in the D heatmap.

                        But market reactions on the trade war issue has been somewhat delayed recently. We’ll have to wait for European open, at least, to get a better idea on how serious are traders on Trump’s proposal.

                        Trump proposes to triple down tariffs against China to USD 150b

                          US President Donald Trump is now intending to triple down on his trade actions against China. He has just ordered the Trade Representative to consider tariffs on additional USD 100b in Chinese imports, in addition to the USD 50b list of 1300 product lines. In his own statement, Trump condemned China’s retaliation as “unfair” to “harm our farmers and manufacturers”. He also ordered the Secretary of Agriculture to “implement a plan to protect our farmers and agricultural interests”. USTR Robert Lighthizer supported Trump’s proposal and said it’s an “appropriate response” to China’s recent threat of new tariffs.

                          Below are the statements from Trump and Lighthizer:

                          Statement from President Donald J. Trump on Additional Proposed Section 301 Remedies

                          Following a thorough investigation under section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, the United States Trade Representative (USTR) determined that China has repeatedly engaged in practices to unfairly obtain America’s intellectual property. The practices detailed in the USTR’s investigation have caused concern around the world. China’s illicit trade practices − ignored for years by Washington − have destroyed thousands of American factories and millions of American jobs. On April 3, 2018, the USTR announced approximately $50 billion in proposed tariffs on imports from China as an initial means to obtain the elimination of policies and practices identified in the investigation.

                          Rather than remedy its misconduct, China has chosen to harm our farmers and manufacturers. In light of China’s unfair retaliation, I have instructed the USTR to consider whether $100 billion of additional tariffs would be appropriate under section 301 and, if so, to identify the products upon which to impose such tariffs. I have also instructed the Secretary of Agriculture, with the support of other members of my Cabinet, to use his broad authority to implement a plan to protect our farmers and agricultural interests.

                          Notwithstanding these actions, the United States is still prepared to have discussions in further support of our commitment to achieving free, fair, and reciprocal trade and to protect the technology and intellectual property of American companies and American people. Trade barriers must be taken down to enhance economic growth in America and around the world. I am committed to enabling American companies and workers to compete on a level playing field around the world, and I will never allow unfair trade practices to undermine American interests.

                          USTR Robert Lighthizer Statement on the President’s Additional Section 301 Action

                          “President Trump is proposing an appropriate response to China’s recent threat of new tariffs. After a detailed investigation, USTR found overwhelming evidence that China’s unreasonable actions are harming the U.S. economy. In the light of such evidence, the appropriate response from China should be to change its behavior, as China’s government has pledged to do many times. Economies around the world – including China’s own – would benefit if China would implement policies that truly reward hard work and innovation, rather than continuing its policies that distort the vital high-tech sector.

                          “Unfortunately, China has chosen to respond thus far with threats to impose unjustified tariffs on billions of dollars in U.S. exports, including our agricultural products. Such measures would undoubtedly cause further harm to American workers, farmers, and businesses. Under these circumstances, the President is right to ask for additional appropriate action to obtain the elimination of the unfair acts, policies, and practices identified in USTR’s report.”

                          Any additional tariffs proposed will be subject to a similar public comment process as the proposed tariffs announced on April 3, 2018. No tariffs will go into effect until the respective process is complete.

                          CAD/JPY long opportunity for quick trading and position trading

                            USD/JPY is trading as the biggest mover (up) today, and momentum is maintained in the current 4H period.

                            This is consistent with the D heatmap where USD is the strongest one, while JPY is the weakest one.

                            However, looking at the 4H heatmap and W heatmap, we can see that USD’s strength is not that overwhelming. And indeed, CAD’s strength look more solid. And, CAD/JPY is indeed also top 10 movers across all time frame.

                            Hence, CAD/JPY is probably a pair that’s worth more attention. Looking at CAD/JPY action bias table, solid upside momentum is seen in 6H time frame. However, D action bias has just turned from neutral to positive. And W action bias stays negative in the latest 9 bars. While there is a possibility that CAD/JPY is staging a trend reversal, current rebound could also be a correction.

                            Looking back at the charts, CAD/JPY should have bottomed in short term at 80.52 after drawing support from 80.55. This give us more confidence on the long trade. For quick intraday traders, a strategy is to long CAD/JPY and target 38.2% retracement of 91.56 to 80.52 at 84.73 for a quick profit. For position traders, we better wait for the reactions from the 84.73 fibonacci level to make sure the pullback is corrective and buy at a dip. 

                            Canadian PM Trudeau: High chance of win-win-win deal of NAFTA

                              Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also expressed his optimism regarding NAFT renegotiation. He told reports that “we have a high chance of reaching a win-win-win deal for Canada, the United States and Mexico.”

                              And, “with the pressures of the elections in Mexico, and the U.S. elections, if we could announce something at the Summit of the Americas, that would be great.”

                              That is the April 13-14 summit of regional leaders of the Americans in Peru. And it’s rumored that there will be at least a symbolic NAFTA agreement reached for announcement during the summit.

                              Trump’s Economic Advisor Kudlow: US GDP could hit 5% as catch up

                                US National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow talked to FOX Business News. He said US annual GDP could hit 5% growth as a “catch up”. He pointed to the “long-term trend line for GDP versus the actual now”. And added that the US is like “several trillion dollars below where we should be based on the long-term trend lines”. And he wants to “get back to that full potential”.

                                Kudlow also said he expected trade barriers between US and China will come down on both sides as part of a deal. Earlier, he emphasizedd that “none of the tariffs have been put in place yet, these are all proposals.” And Trump’s administration is “putting it out for comment”. He added “there’s at least two months before any actions are taken”.

                                DOW heading to trend line resistance at 24835

                                  DOW opens notably higher today and is trading up over 200 pts within the first 30mins. As we noted here, a based was formed at 23344.52/23360.29. 24314.30 is taken out with ease today. But again, the real hurdle is trend line resistance (now at around 24835). Failure to sustain above there will press recent price actions from 23360.29 into a triangle consolidation pattern. Meanwhile, firm break of the trend line will bring further rise to 25449.15/25800.35 resistance zone, as part of a rectangle pattern.

                                  Though, in either case, we’re still expecting the correction from 26616.71 high to extend with another falling leg through 23351.24 at a later stage.

                                  US trade deficit widened to USD 57.6b, initial jobless claims rose to 242k

                                    US trade deficit widened to USD 57.6b in February, up USD 0.9b from USD 56.7b in January. Exports rose USD 3b to USD 137.2b. Imports also rose USD 3.3b to 213.2b.

                                    The February figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($3.4), Hong Kong ($3.1), Brazil ($0.9), United Kingdom ($0.6), and Singapore ($0.5).

                                    Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($34.7), European Union ($15.3), Germany ($6.7), Mexico ($6.6), Japan ($6.0), Italy ($2.8), OPEC ($2.3), India ($1.9), Taiwan ($1.5), France ($1.4), South Korea ($1.1), Saudi Arabia ($0.4), and Canada ($0.4).

                                    US initial jobless claims rose 24k to 242k in the week ended March 31, well above expectation of 223k. But it’s still at an ultra low level historically. Prior week’s figure was revised up by 3k to 218k. The four week moving average was up 3k to 228.25k. Continuing claims dropped -64k to 1.81m, lowest since December 1973.

                                    Canada trade deficit widened in March, trade surplus with US narrowed

                                      Canada trade deficit widened to CAD -2.7b in February, from CAD -1.9b. Imports rose 1.9% mom, 3.5% yoy to CAD 48.6b, with energy products leading the way. On the other hand, exports rose 0.4% mom, 1.5% yoy to CAD 45.9b, primarily on higher exports of passenger cars and light trucks.

                                      Canadian trade with the US rebounded after two months of decline. Imports from the US rose 3.3% mom to CAD 32.1b, mostly on aircraft. Exports to the US rose 1.9% mom to CAD 34.6b, mainly on passenger cars and light trucks. Canada’s trade surplus with the US narrowed from CAD 2.9b in January to USD 2.6b in February.

                                      UK PMI Services: Economy iced up in March

                                        UK PMI services dropped sharply to 51.7 in March, downf rom 54.5 and missed expectation of 54.0. That’s the lowest level in 20 months and it’s “partly linked to snow distruption”.

                                        Quote from Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit:

                                        • “The UK economy iced up in March, suffering the weakest increase in business activity since the Brexit vote amid widespread disruptions caused by some of the heaviest snowfall in years. As a result, first quarter economic growth will likely have been adversely affected. The PMI surveys collectively signal a quarterly GDP growth rate of just under 0.3%, down from 0.4% in the fourth quarter, albeit with the rate of growth sliding to just 0.15% in March alone.
                                        • “Inflationary pressures meanwhile picked up again in March. Although running below the peaks seen late last year, rates of both input cost and selling price inflation suggest consumer price inflation could remain stubbornly high in coming months.
                                        • “The latest dip in the survey indicators is comparable to prior months in which the country saw heavy snow, and so will probably do little to alter policymakers’ view on the underlying health of the economy. The indications of solid employment growth and stubbornly high price pressures therefore leave a widely-touted May rate hike very much in play.
                                        • “A strong rebound is nevertheless likely to be needed to ensure the majority of policymakers feel the economy is ready for another hike in interest rates. Encouragingly, in January 2010 and December 2010, the PMI fell sharply due to heavy snow but in both cases the decline was more than reversed in the following month. Some caution is warranted this year, however, as a drop in business expectations about the year ahead during March suggests the underlying trend remains one of weaker economic growth compared to that seen late last year.”

                                        Eurozone PMI Composite: Economy growing at 0.6% quarterly rate, down from unsustainably rapid 0.8-0.9%

                                          Eurozone PMI Services Business Activity Index was finalized at 54.9 in March, revised down from 55.0. That compares to February reading at 56.2. Final PMI Eurozone Composite index wars revised down to 55.2, from 55.3. February’s reading was at 57.1.

                                          Quote from there lease by Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS
                                          Markit:

                                          • “The eurozone economy came off the boil in March, though continued to run hot. Although the final PMI numbers showed the weakest rise in business activity since the start of last year, adding to signs that the growth spurt has peaked, the surveys are still indicative of the economy growing at an impressive 0.6% quarterly rate in March, down from a clearly unsustainably rapid 0.8-0.9% rate around the start of the year.
                                          • “Some pull-back from the elevated level of the PMI at the start of the year was always highly likely, and it’s important to note that the slowdown generally represents a reduction in the number of companies reporting month-on-month improvements in business activity, as opposed to a rise in the number of companies reporting a deterioration in business conditions.
                                          • “Some of the loss in growth momentum also appears to have been the result of temporary factors, such as bad weather and short-term capacity constraints, notably shortages of supplies and labour. Some reversal of these impediments should therefore hopefully help boost growth in April.
                                          • “Gauging the true extent of any slowdown is consequently difficult due to the disruptions to business from bad weather in recent months. April’s PMI data will therefore be particularly important in ascertaining true underlying growth momentum and in providing a steer on the likely timing of any ECB policy changes.”