Trump said to consider slapping 25% tariffs on USD 200B of Chinese imports

    Just hours after report that US and China are seeking to re-engage in trade negotiations, there were reports that Trump is planning to slap 25% tariffs on USD 200B in Chinese imports, instead of 10%. The product list could include food, chemicals, steel and aluminum, consumer goods etc. The announcement could be made as soon as on Wednesday, that is today.

    Trump defended his try policies in a rally speech in Tampa. And he put the blame on other countries again and said “China and others have targeted our farmers. Not good. Not nice. And you know what our farmers are saying? ‘It’s OK. We can take it.” He also tried to equate the support to his policy to patriotism, in typical authoritarian government way, by hailing the farmers as “true patriots”.

    Market reactions to the news were relatively muted though. USD/CNH (offshore Yuan) dipped to as low as 6.770 on news of possible restart in trade talks. But that it’s back above 6.8 on the news of the possible 25% tariffs. It’s clear what is driving the Yuan exchange rate.

    Gold selloff accelerates, corrective rise from 1160.36 likely completed

      Gold drops to as low as 1215.57 so far today, breaking 1219.90 support firmly. The development suggests rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1365.24 to 1160.36 at 1238.62, despite brief breach. And it’s in line with our view that rebound from 1160.36 is a correction only.

      Immediate focus is on 55 day EMA (now at 1215.20). Sustained break will pave the way to retest 1160.36 low. In case of another recovery, we’d expect strong resistance from 1238.62 fibonacci level to limit upside again. Eventually, the down trend from 1365.24 is expected to extend through 1160.36 after the corrective pattern from 1160.36 completes.

      China Caixin PMI services rose to 56.3, composite rose to 54.7

        China Caixin PMI Services rose to 56.3 in April, up from 54.3, above expectation of 54.2. There was steeper increase in activity amid strongest upturn in sales for five months. Quicker rise in employment helped easing capacity pressures. Optimism towards the year ahead remained historically sharp. PMI Composite rose to 54.7, up from 53.1.

        Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “To sum up, the post-epidemic manufacturing and services recovery accelerated as both supply and demand expanded. Business confidence was high amid strong overseas demand and improved employment. Services recovered faster than manufacturing. Inflation will be a focus in the future. Inflationary pressure was evident as input costs and output prices in manufacturing and services have continued to increase for several months.”

        Full release here.

        Swiss CPI falls to 1% yoy in Mar, misses expectations

          Swiss CPI was flat month-over-month in March, below expectation of 0.3% mom. Core CPI (excluding fresh and seasonal products, energy and fuel) rose 0.1% mom. Domestic products prices fell -0.2% mom. Imported products pries rose 0.7% mom.

          Over the 12-month period, CPI slowed from 1.2% yoy to 1.0% yoy, below expectation of 1.4% yoy. Core CPI slowed from 1.1% yoy to 1.0% yoy. Domestic products prices slowed from 1.9% yoy to 1.8% yoy. Imported products prices fell from -1.0% yoy to -1.3% yoy.

          Full Swiss CPI release here.

          Australia employment rose 25.7k, no imminent need for RBA cut

            Australia employment grew 25.7k in March, much better than expectation of 15.2k. Full time employment rose 48.3k while part time jobs dropped -22.6k. Unemployment rate rose from 4.9% to 5.0%, matched expectations. Participation rate also rose from 65.6% to 65.7%.

            The largest increase in employment was in Queensland (up 10.4k), followed by Victoria (up 10.0k) and South Australia (up 8.5k). The largest decrease was in New South Wales (down 2.6k) followed by Tasmania (down 1.8k). The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased in Queensland (up 0.7 pts to 6.1%), South Australia (up 0.2 pts to 5.9%), Tasmania (up 0.2 pts to 6.7%), Western Australia (up 0.1 pts to 6.0%) and New South Wales (up 0.1 pts to 4.3%). The only decrease in the unemployment rate was observed in Victoria (down 0.1 pts to 4.6%).

            The strong gain in full time jobs underlines the robustness in the employment market. However, unemployment rate rose in all regions, only except Victoria, which is a concern. At this point, there is no imminent push for an RBA rate cut in the first up. But situation could worsen ahead that trigger the expected two cuts in the second half. The key will lie in upcoming economic projections in May.

            Full release here.

            AUD/USD’s reaction to the data is rather muted. Further rise is in favor with 0.7139 minor support intact. But so far, AUD/USD bulls are continuing to hesitate to respond to positive news.

            RBNZ announces measures for to support financial system functioning

              RBNZ announces a package of measures to support financial system functioning during the coronavirus pandemic. A Term Auction Facility is set up to give banks access to term funding, with collateralized loans available out to a term of 12 months. That should alleviate pressures in the funding markets. Other measures include funding in the fx swap markets, re-establishment of a USD swap line, supporting liquidity in the government market, and measures to have a greater control over short-term interest rates.

              “The measures we are implementing today provide additional support to domestic financial markets. We will ensure our operations make financial markets operate smoothly,” Assistant Governor Christian Hawkesby said. “We are working in tandem with the banks, the wider financial market community, and the Government.”

              US and China agreed to continue trade negotiations in October

                Sentiments in Asia are apparently lifted after confirmation of US-China trade meeting in early October. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said “both sides agreed that they should work together and take practical actions to create good conditions for consultations.” That came after a telephone call between Vice Premier Liu He and PBoC Governor Yi Gang, with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Conversations between two sides will continue this month, in preparation for high level negotiation in early October.

                Separately, USTR spokesperson Jeff Emerson also confirmed in a statement that “They agreed to hold meetings at the ministerial level in Washington in the coming weeks. And, “In advance of these discussions, deputy-level meetings will take place in mid-September to lay the ground work for meaningful progress.”

                Chinese Vice Premier Liu He to visit Washington next week for trade talk with US

                  White House spokesperson Sarah Sanders told reports that trade talks between US and China will resume in Washington next week.

                  She said that “we are working on something that we think will be great for everybody”

                  And, “China’s top economic adviser, the vice premier (Liu He), will be coming here next week to continue the discussions with the president’s economic team.”

                  Fed Bostic: There could be significant reduction in inflation this year

                    Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said yesterday that a pause in tightening in September might be a good idea, because market responses had been “far stronger than what we’ve historically seen.” “I want to make sure I truly understand the pace of change that’s associated with our policy response,” Bostic said.

                    By September, some of the uncertainty over the economy could be resolved. Bostic expected that could lead to a “pretty significant reduction in inflation.”

                    Yet, he’s “fully comfortable” to raise interest rates above neutral if inflation doesn’t come down. “The goal is to get inflation down. We’ve got to really tackle it in an intentional, persistent way,” he said. “I want to be open to both possibilities.”

                    UK CPI rose to 9.4% yoy in Jun, goods up 12.7% yoy, services up 5.2% yoy

                      UK CPI accelerated from 9.1% yoy to 9.4% yoy in June, above expectation of 9.3% yoy. That’s also the highest level since the series began in January 1991. Indicative model estimates that it’s the highest since 1982, when it was 11%.

                      The CPI all goods index rose by 12.7% yoy, accelerated from 12.4%. CPI all services rose 5.2% yoy, accelerated from 4.9%. CPI core (excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) slowed from 5.9% yoy to 5.8% yoy, below expectation of 6.0% yoy.

                      Full CPI release here.

                      Also published from the UK, PPI input was at 1.8% mom, 24.0% yoy, versus expectation of 0.9% mom, 23.5% yoy. CPI output was at 1.4% mom, 16.5% yoy, versus expectation of 2.0% mom, 16.8% yoy. CPI output core was at 0.8% mom, 15.2% yoy, versus expectation of 2.0% mom, 15.5% yoy.

                      China retail sales unexpectedly contracted in July, USD/CNH channeling lower

                        The batch of economic data released from China is mixed. In particular, retail sales contracted -1.1% yoy in July, versus expectation of 0.3% yoy. That showed vulnerability in domestic demand. Nevertheless, industrial production rose 4.8% yoy in July, slightly above expectation of 4.7% yoy. Fixed asset investment dropped -1.6% ytd yoy in July, above expectation of -3.3% ytd yoy.

                        USD/CNH is still channeling well as fall from 7.1961 extends. This decline is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 7.1953. Hence, while fall could be seen, we’d expect strong support from 6.8452 to contain downside and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 6.9804 resistance will now suggests short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside.

                        Eurozone CPI finalized at -0.3% yoy in Oct, core CPI at 0.2% yoy

                          Eurozone CPI was finalized at -0.3% yoy in October, unchanged to September’s figure. Core CPI was finalized at 0.2% yoy. The highest contribution came from food, alcohol & tobacco (+0.38%), followed by services (+0.19%), non-energy industrial goods (-0.03%) and energy (-0.81%).

                          EU CPI was finalized at 0.3% yoy, also stable compared to September. The lowest annual rates were registered in Greece (-2.0%), Estonia (-1.7%) and Ireland (-1.5%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Poland (3.8%), Hungary (3.0%) and Czechia (2.9%). Compared with September, annual inflation fell in fifteen Member States, remained stable in two and rose in ten.

                          Full release here.

                          Fed stands pat, talks down weak Feb NFP and fall in headline inflation

                            Fed left federal funds rate unchanged at 2.25-2.50% as widely expected. It maintained the the Committee will be “patient” regarding future adjustments to interest rates. Nevertheless, Fed talks down the weak NFP growth in February, and maintained that “job gains have been solid, on average, in recent month”. Also, unemployment rate “remained low”.

                            Fed also talks down easing in inflation and said it’s “largely a result of lower energy prices”. Core inflation remains “near 2 percent”. Though, growth in household spending and business fixed investments slowed in Q1.

                            Full statement below:

                            Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement

                            Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that the labor market remains strong but that growth of economic activity has slowed from its solid rate in the fourth quarter. Payroll employment was little changed in February, but job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Recent indicators point to slower growth of household spending and business fixed investment in the first quarter. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation has declined, largely as a result of lower energy prices; inflation for items other than food and energy remains near 2 percent. On balance, market-based measures of inflation compensation have remained low in recent months, and survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.

                            Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent. The Committee continues to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective as the most likely outcomes. In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support these outcomes.

                            In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

                            Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Jerome H. Powell, Chairman; John C. Williams, Vice Chairman; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Richard H. Clarida; Charles L. Evans; Esther L. George; Randal K. Quarles; and Eric S. Rosengren.

                            Middle East strife indirectly spurs Nikkei to largest gain in 11 mths

                              Japan’s Nikkei index surged by 2.43% upon reopening after a long weekend, logging the largest single day gain in 11 months. Conventional wisdom might suggest that heightened geopolitical tensions typically dampen investor sentiment. However, the dynamics observed in the Japanese market unfold a contrasting narrative.

                              The ascendancy in Nikkei is attributed, in part, to significant gains witnessed in the oil sector. Oil explorer Inpex saw an impressive 8.6% spike, while Japan Petroleum Exploration soared by 10.7%. These gains align with the rally in oil prices globally, stimulated by the escalating conflict in the Middle East.

                              The unexpected positive response of Japanese stocks to the geopolitical unrest has fueled a debate among market observers. Some argue that the intensifying situation in the Middle East might lead to reconsideration on Fed’s policy path. There’s a burgeoning perspective that Fed might hold off on further rate hikes, given the potential economic uncertainties injected by the conflict.

                              Technically, today’s rebound in Nikkei argues that corrective pattern from 33772.89 (Jun high), could have completed with three waves down to 30487.67. That came after drawing support from 38.2% retracement of 25661.89 to 33772.89 at 30674.48. Next focus is 55 D EMA (now at 32149.24) Sustained trading above there will solidify this bullish case and target retesting 33772.89 high.

                              Swiss KOF dropped to 96.2, largely due to deterioration in manufacturing

                                Swiss KOF Economic Barometer dropped to 96.2 in April, down from 97.1 and missed expectation of 97.0. KOF noted that the Barometer value is still “clearly below average”. Also, the Swiss economy will remain sluggish in the coming months.

                                KOF also said that the decline was largely due to deterioration in manufacturing sector. Construction also dropped slightly. The signals for private consumption as well as the banking and insurance sector was almost unchanged. The outlook for other service providers, accommodation and food service activities and for foreign demand was slightly better than in the previous month.

                                Full release here.

                                ECB Makuch: Unguided missile Trump is the biggest threat to Eurozone economy

                                  ECB Governing Council member Jozef Makuch said risks to the Eurozone are broadly balanced and the central bank’s stance was correct. He added policy makers were “not underestimating the risks” but “analyzing them”. And, “based on what we know now, the development is stable, risks are balanced, with some downside risks to GDP growth.” He also noted there is no reason to “spread gloomy mood or panic”.

                                  Makuch also pointed out that Trump is like an “unguided missile” and the unpredictably of his policies is the biggest risks of the Eurozone economy. He noted that the erratic nature of Trump as “he says something and in the end something else happens”. Meanwhile, he played down risks from emerging markets and said the governing council sees no signs of spillover.

                                  Meanwhile, Makuch is considering stepping down early as head of Slovakia’s central bank. He’s term supposedly end in 2021. He noted that the elections in spring 2020 would be highly divisive. That could lead to the post being vacant for an extended period. To him, Finance Minister Peter Kazimir would be a “good governor” to replace him. He hailed that Kazimir “Ecofin deals with all important monetary issues”, so the lack of experience in central banking is not a problem.

                                  UK GfK consumer confidence unchanged at -13, a case of ‘Keep Calm’

                                    UK GfK consumer confidence was unchanged at -13 in April, matched expectations. Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director at GfK, says:  “We have reported a -13 headline for the past three months and it appears it’s a case of ‘Keep Calm’ when it comes to how confident consumers are feeling right now.  Despite political carry-on in the Westminster bubble with the clock ticking on Britain’s eventual departure from the EU, consumers are holding firm and remain unshaken by the daily headlines of turmoil and intrigue, although we remain in negative territory.”

                                    Full release here.

                                    US initial jobless claims down slightly to 202k, vs exp 215k

                                      US initial jobless claims fell -1k to 202k in the week ending January 6, lower than expectation of 215k. Four-week moving average of initial claims fell -250 to 207.75k.

                                      Continuing claims fell -34k to 1834k in the week ending December 30. Four-week moving average of continuing claims fell -8k to 1862k.

                                      Full US jobless claims release here.

                                      Kim meets Trump: 1-on-1 finished, it’s now team play

                                        The one-on-one meeting between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump in Singapore has ended after 41 mins of talks. It’s now entered into wider meeting with officials from both sides. After the one-on-one meeting, Kim said there will be challenges but will work with Trump. And Trump urged Kim to work together.

                                        Just as they met for the first time earlier today, with handshake, Kim said “the road to this place wasn’t an easy road”. He added “”for us, there is a past that had ensnared our feet and wrong prejudices that sometimes covered our eyes and ears, but we have overcome them all and arrived here.”

                                        Full text of Kim and Trump comprehensive document

                                          Here are some of the texts:

                                          “President Trump committed to provide security guarantees to the DPRK, and Chairman Kim Jong Un reaffirmed his firm and unwavering commitment to complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”

                                          1. The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new US-DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.

                                          2. The United States and the DPRK will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.

                                          3. Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

                                          4. The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.

                                          The United States and the DPRK commit to hold follow-on negotiations, led by the US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, and a relevant high-level DPRK official, at the earliest possible date, to implement the outcomes of the US-DPRK summit.

                                          President Donald J Trump of the United States of America & Chairman Kim Jong Un of the State Affairs Commission of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea have committed to cooperate for the development of new US-DPRK relations and for the promotion of peace, prosperity, and security of the Korean Peninsula and of the world.

                                          Full text:

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