Fri, Aug 02, 2024 @ 02:19 GMT
Facebook Mail RSS Twitter
Live Comments Page 660

Live Comments

Random

ECB staff to work form home on Monday as precautionary test

    By
    ActionForex.com
    -

    ECB canceled most of its public events over the next month due to coronavirus outbreak in Europe. Also, it told most of its over 3500 staff to work from home on Monday, as a “precautionary” drill in case of shutdown.

    A spokesman said “the ECB has facilities in place for large scale remote working and Monday 9 March will serve as a precautionary test for the infrastructure but also for ECB staff in case such large scale usage of the facilities becomes necessary at some point.

    Still, the scheduled Governing Council meeting would go ahead as scheduled on Thursday.

    Fed Powell: H2 going to be very strong but risks are still out there

      By
      ActionForex.com
      -

      In the CBS’ 60 Minutes aired on Sunday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said “we feel like we’re at a place where the economy’s about to start growing much more quickly and job creation coming in much more quickly”. He added that the growth in H2 is “going to be very strong”.

      “There really are risks out there,” he added. “And the principal one just is that we will reopen too quickly, people will too quickly return to their old practices, and we’ll see another spike in cases.” But even in that case, any spike in cases wouldn’t be as disastrous as prior ones, thanks to vaccinations. The economy will still “move ahead more quickly to the extent we keep the spread of COVID under control.”

      The time to for the administration to reduce the budget deficit is “when the economy is strong and we’re fully recovered and people are working and taxes are rolling in,” he said. “The time to do that is not now.”

      RBA minutes: Prepared to be patient on interest rate

        By
        ActionForex.com
        -

        In the minutes of February 1 meeting, RBA reiterated that it “will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target band.” It’s “too early to conclude that it was sustainably within the target band”. There were uncertainties about “how persistent the pick-up in inflation would be as supply-side problems were resolved” and “wages growth also remained modest”. The central bank is “prepared to be patient”.

        Omicron outbreak “had affected the economy, but had not derailed the recovery”. The economy was “resilient” and was expected to “pick up as case numbers trended lower”. Job market had “recovered strongly” with central forecasts seeing unemployment to fall to “levels not seen since early 1970s”. Wages growth was expected to pick-up, buy only gradually.

        Inflation had “picked up more quickly than the Bank had expected”, but was still “lower than in many other countries”. “Some moderation” in inflation was expected as “supply problems were resolved.” Stronger growth in labour costs was expected to become the “more important driver of inflation”. The central forecast was for underlying inflation to be within the target band over both 2022 and 2023.

        A decision about reinvestment of asset purchases would be made at the May meeting, with the key considerations being the “state of the economy and the outlook for inflation and unemployment.”

        Full minutes here.

        Fed’s Kashkari: More positive inflation data needed before easing monetary policy

          By
          ActionForex.com
          -

          In an interview with CNBC today, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari emphasized the need for “many more months of positive inflation data” before considering a reduction in monetary policy restrictions.

          Moreover, he noted that Fed might still need to hike rates if inflation does not decrease further, stating, “I don’t think we should rule anything out at this point.”

          Kashkari expressed confidence that Fed would eventually achieve its 2% inflation target but cautioned against rushing into rate cuts. However, “I’m not seeing the need to hurry and do rate cuts. I think we should take our time and get it right,” he added.

          BoE Pill expects headline inflation to tail off in 2nd half of next year quite rapidly

            By
            ActionForex.com
            -

            BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said at a conference, “we are expecting to see headline inflation tail off in the second half of next year, in fact quite rapidly, on account of those base effects.” But, “there’s a lot of uncertainty around the outlook for gas price developments,” he added.

            “Very low levels of unemployment and the association with the mid-1970s is not entirely reassuring from an inflection point of view,” Pill said. “People in the 50 to 65 age group, relative to pre-COVID levels, are having a higher level of inactivity not being in a job and not looking for work.”

            Eurozone CPI rose to 2% in May, unemployment rate dropped to 8% in Apr

              By
              ActionForex.com
              -

              Eurozone CPI jumped further to 2.0% yoy in May, up from 1.6% yoy, above expectation of 1.9% yoy. Core CPI rose to 0.9% yoy, up from 0.7% yoy, matched expectations. Looking at the main components, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate (13.1%, compared with 10.4% in April), followed by services (1.1%, compared with 0.9% in April), non-energy industrial goods (0.7%, compared with 0.4% in April) and food, alcohol & tobacco (0.6%, stable compared with April).

              Unemployment rate dropped to 8.0% in April, down from 8.1%, below expectation of 8.1%. EU unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.3%.

              Fed holds steady at 5.25-5.50%, keeps rate cut plans unclear

                By
                ActionForex.com
                -

                Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50%, as widely anticipated, with a unanimous vote. The accompanying statement closely mirrored June’s guidance for future decisions, maintaining that the Fed is “prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate.”

                Fed emphasized that its assessments will consider a “wide range of information,” indicating that it is keeping its plans for potential rate cuts close to the chest for now.

                On the economic front, Fed acknowledged that job gains have “moderated” and the unemployment rate has “moved up.” Additionally, the statement noted “some further progress” in reducing inflation towards the target. Fed also mentioned that risks to inflation and employment are continuing to “move into better balance.”

                Full FOMC statement here.

                 

                Dollar gets no support as ADP employment missed expectation

                  By
                  ActionForex.com
                  -

                  Dollar remains generally weak in early US session and receives no special support from a batch of mixed data.

                  ADP report showed private sector jobs grew 178k in May, below expectation of 190k. Prior month’s figure was also revised down from 204k to 163k. Q1 GDP growth was revised down from 2.3% to 2.2% qoq. GDP price index was revised down from 2.0% to 1.9%. Wholesale inventories rose 0.0% versus expectation of 0.5% in April. Trade deficit narrowed slightly to USD -68.2B, from USD -68.3B.

                  From Canada, IPPI rose 0.5% mom in April while RMPI rose 0.7% mom. Current account deficit widened to CAD -19.5B in Q1. Focus will turn to BoC rate decision.

                  UK PMI manufacturing dropped to 52.8, stocks up on Brexit preparations

                    By
                    ActionForex.com
                    -

                    UK PMI manufacturing dropped to 52.8 in January, down from 54.2 and missed expectation of 53.5. That’s also a 3-month low. Markit noted that “stocks of purchases rise at survey-record rate”. And, “employment falls for only the second time in past 30 months”.

                    Rob Dobson, Director at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey:

                    “The start of 2019 saw UK manufacturers continue their preparations for Brexit. Stocks of inputs increased at the sharpest pace in the 27-year history, as buying activity was stepped up to mitigate against potential supply-chain disruptions in coming months. There were also signs that inventories of finished goods were being bolstered to ensure warehouses are well stocked to meet ongoing contractual obligations.

                    “Despite the temporary boost provided by clients’ prepurchases and efforts to build-up stocks, the underlying trends in output and new orders remained lacklustre at best. Growth of new order inflows slowed sharply, and new export orders were near-stagnant, contributing to the weakest trend in output since the month following the EU referendum (July 2016). Based on its historical relationship against official data, the January survey is consistent with a further solid contraction of production volumes, meaning manufacturing will likely act as a drag on the economy in the first quarter.

                    “January also saw manufacturing jobs being cut for only the second time since mid-2016 as confidence about the outlook slipped to a 30-month low, often reflecting ongoing concerns about Brexit and signs of a European economic slowdown. With neither of these headwinds likely to abate in the near-term, there is a clear risk of manufacturing sliding into recession.”

                    Full release here.

                    Bundesbank Weidmann: Acting beyond mandate will undermine trust in ECB

                      By
                      ActionForex.com
                      -

                      Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann warned today that the Eurozone is still not crisis proof. He pointed out that “certain issues like the lack of credibility of fiscal rules or the harmful sovereign-bank nexus still have to be adequately addressed.”

                      At the same time, fighting crises could force unelected ECB bankers to take political positions that’s beyond its own mandate. And, “acting beyond the mandate would also undermine people’s trust in the central bank.”

                      He added, “at the end of the day, it could become more and more difficult for the European Central Bank to focus on its promise of a stable currency.”

                      Swiss tells US it’s not engaging in currency manipulation

                        By
                        ActionForex.com
                        -

                        In the US Treasury Department’s semiannual foreign-exchange report to Congress, Switzerland was added to the monitoring list regarding currency manipulation, along with China, Japan, Korea, Germany, Italy, Ireland, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam. The Treasury urged Swiss officials to publish intervention data more frequently.

                        In response, Swiss Finance Ministry said in a statement, “it should be stressed that Switzerland does not in any way engage in manipulation of its currency to prevent adjustments to the balance of payments or gain unjustified competitive advantage.”

                        UK PM May to urged not to “break faith” with British people with another Brexit referendum

                          By
                          ActionForex.com
                          -

                          According to pre-released text, UK Prime Minister Theresa May will urged parliament today not to “break faith” with the British people with another referendum. She will also warned that “Another vote which would do irreparable damage to the integrity of our politics, because it would say to millions who trusted in democracy, that our democracy does not deliver. Another vote which would likely leave us no further forward than the last”

                          Separately, Trade Minister said in a BBC show that “it is very clear that the EU understand what the problem is. And it’s a question now, without unpicking the whole of the withdrawal agreement, can we find a mechanism of operating the backstop in a way that actually removes those anxieties”. He added that “It will happen over Christmas, it’s not going to happen this week, it’s not going to be quick, it will happen some time in the New Year.”

                          Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney told RTE television that “If there is an entirely new proposal coming from the UK, I think undoubtedly it would need a lot more time to be considered on the EU side and that would probably involve an extension of Article 50 or pulling Article 50 for the moment.”

                          Eurozone PMIs: Growth has downshifted markedly since the peak at the start of the year

                            By
                            ActionForex.com
                            -

                            Eurozone PMI manufacturing dropped to 56.0 in April, down from 56.6, miss expectation of 56.1. Eurozone PMI services rose to 55.0, up from 54.9 and beat expectation of 54.6. PMI composite unchanged at 55.2.

                            Comments from Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit:

                            “The Eurozone economy remained stuck in a lower gear in April, with business activity expanding at a rate unchanged on March, which had in turn been the slowest since the start of 2017. Growth has downshifted markedly since the peak at the start of the year, but importantly still remains robust.

                            “The April data are running at a level broadly consistent with Eurozone GDP growth of approximately 0.6% at the start of the second quarter.

                            “The decline in the PMI from January’s high is neither surprising nor alarming: such strong growth as that seen at the start of the year rarely persists for long, not least because supply fails to keep up with demand. With recent months seeing record delivery delays for inputs to factories and growing skill shortages, output is clearly being constrained. In France, strikes were also reported to have disrupted growth, and may continue to do so in coming months

                            “However, it’s also clear that underlying demand has weakened, in part due to exports being hit by the stronger euro. With companies’ future optimism having slipped to the lowest since last year, it looks likely that growth may well slow further in coming months.”

                            OECD raises global growth forecast to 5.8% this year, but this is no ordinary recovery

                              By
                              ActionForex.com
                              -

                              In the new economic outlook report, OECD raised global economic growth forecast to 5.8% this year, a “sharp upwards revision” from December’s projection of 4.2%. It said that “vaccines rollout in many of the advanced economies has been driving the improvement, as has the massive fiscal stimulus by the United States”. Growth is projected to slow to 4.4% next year.

                              The organization warned that this is “no ordinary recovery” and is likely to “remain uneven and dependent on the effectiveness of vaccination programmes and public health policies.” Some countries like Korea and US are ” reaching pre-pandemic per capita income levels after about 18 months”. But, “much of Europe is expected to take nearly 3 years to recover”. Mexico and South Africa would take between 3 and 5 years.

                              Full report here.

                              Eurozone Sentix expectations turned negative, significant economic slowdown must now be assumed

                                By
                                ActionForex.com
                                -

                                Eurozone Sentix investor confidence dropped notably to 19.6 in April, down from 24.0 and missed expectation of 19.6. Current situation index dropped from 24.0 to 19.6, continuing the decline fro January’s high of 32.9. Expectation index turned negative to -1.5, down from March’s 4.3. That’s also a continuation of the fall from 18.8 back in January.

                                Highlights from the release:

                                • All regions of the world are on an economic downturn in April. Despite the still good assessment of the situation, there is no doubt that the global economy is cooling off.
                                • Expectations for the Euro area are negative again for the first time since July 2016. The downward dynamic for Germany is even more pronounced.
                                • The euphoria for the US economy is also fading noticeably. Expectations drop to a value of -7 percentage points. Trump’s statements and measures on punitive tariffs raise serious concerns. The component for Expectations of the sentix Global Aggregate falls to its lowest value since February 2016.

                                Regarding Eurozone, the report noted that clear visible cooling. And, “after the declines in expectations had already indicated a turnaround in the previous months, a significant economic slowdown must now be assumed.” And, “the customs disputes, fueled by US President Donald Trump, are leaving their traces.”

                                Regarding the US, Sentix noted that “observers rely on the common sense of the US government and assume that the demands are merely negotiation tactics.” But it warned that “Trump is consistently working through its ‘America first’ agenda”. And, The positive effects of the tax reform have quickly evaporated, and expectations for the US economy are plummeting.

                                Full release here.

                                Also released in European session, German trade surplus narrowed to EUR 19.2b in February. Swiss unemployment rate was unchanged at 2.9% in March.

                                BoC’s Macklem monitoring wage growth for further moderation

                                  By
                                  ActionForex.com
                                  -

                                  BoC Governor Tiff Macklem emphasized overnight that the central bank doesn’t want monetary to be “more restrictive than it has to be,”. Yet he also cautioned against lowering borrowing costs “too quickly” as it could undermine progress on controlling inflation.

                                  Macklem pointed out that although wage growth remains above pre-pandemic levels, there are signs that the labor market is rebalancing and inflation is moderating, which could reduce compensation pressures.

                                  “Wages tend to lag adjustments in employment,” he explained, adding, “Going forward, we will be looking for wage growth to moderate further.”

                                  Eurozone unemployment rate dropped to 8.3% in Nov, EU down to 7.5%

                                    By
                                    ActionForex.com
                                    -

                                    Eurozone unemployment rate dropped to 8.3% in November, down from 8.4%, better than expectation of 8.5%. EU employment also dropped to 7.5%, down from 7.6%. Eurostat estimates that 15.933 million men and women in the EU, of whom 13.609 million in the euro area, were unemployed in November.

                                    Released earlier today, Germany industrial production rose 0.9% mom in November, versus expectation of 0.7% mom. Trade surplus narrowed to EUR 16.4B, smaller than expectation of EUR 18.5B.

                                    From France, industrial output dropped -0.9% mom in November, versus expectation of -1.2% mom. Consumer spending dropped -18.9% mom, versus expectation of -15.0%. Trade deficit narrowed to EUR -3.6B in November, versus expectation of EUR -4.5B.

                                    From Swiss, foreign currency reserves rose to CHF 891B in December.

                                    5 Star to find someone other than Savona as economy minister

                                      By
                                      ActionForex.com
                                      -

                                      The anti-establishment 5-Star Movement in Italy in is working hard on forming a government to solve the current political turmoil. It’s leader Luigi Di Maio met with President Sergio Mattarella today. After that, Di Maio said “let’s find someone of the same caliber as Savona, who would still remain in the government in another ministry.” And “If the League agrees … we can still form a government.”

                                      Di Maio is now trying to find that “point of compromise” between Mattaralla and eurosceptic League. No name is thrown out yet and it could take some time to negotiate with League. Note that League leade rMatteo Salvini is pushing for another election as the effort to form a coalition government collapsed.

                                      But after all, the development s calmed the markets mildly as Euro also recovered.

                                      US retail sales grows 0.6% mom in Dec, ex-auto sales up 0.4% mom

                                        By
                                        ActionForex.com
                                        -

                                        US retail sales rose 0.6% mom to USD 709.9B in December, above expectation of 0.4% mom. Ex-auto sales rose 0.4% mom to USD 573.4B, above expectation of 0.2% mom. Ex-gasoline sales rose 0.7% mom to USD 656.7B. Ex-auto, gasoline sales rose 0.6% mom to USD 520.2B.

                                        Full US retail sales release here.

                                        Canada GDP contracted -0.1% mom, missed expectations

                                          By
                                          ActionForex.com
                                          -

                                          Canada GDP unexpected dropped -0.1% mom in February, worse than expectation of 0.0% mom. Looking at some details, mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction sector declines (-1.6%) for the sixth consecutive month. All subsectors decline. Transportation and warehousing contract as rail transportation drops -1.6%, largest fall since June 2011. That’s largely due to a 10.8% drop in rail transportation. Finance and insurance sector declined -0.6%., Manufacturing sector contracted -0.4%. Though, utilities were up 1.5% due to record-setting cold weather in Western Canada. Construction grew for the second month by 0.2%. Also from Canada, IPPI rose 1.3% mom, RMPI rose 2.8% mom in March.

                                          1...659660661...682Page 660 of 682

                                          ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for over a decade. Empowering the individual traders was, is, and will always be our motto going forward.

                                          Contact us: contact@actionforex.com

                                          © ActionForex.com © 2024 All rights reserved.