Fri, Aug 02, 2024 @ 18:15 GMT
Facebook Mail RSS Twitter
Live Comments Page 652

Live Comments

Random

Yen mildly higher as Trump-Kim summit cut short, no agreement reached

    By
    ActionForex.com
    -

    Yen is given a mild lift on news that Trump-Kim summit in Vietnam is cut short, for unknown reason. Trump will pull ahead his scheduled media conference to 0700 GMT. And, for now, it’s unknown whether the scheduled “join agreement signing ceremony” would still be held.

    White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders confirmed that “the two leaders discussed various ways to advance denuclearization and economic driven concepts,”  but  “no agreement was reached at this time, but their respective teams look forward to meeting in the future.”

    Earlier, both sides indicated progresses in denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Kim told reports that “If I’m not willing to do that, I won’t be here right now”. Trump responded by saying “that might be the best answer you’ve ever heard.”

    CADJPY resumed up trend, targeting 87.11

      By
      ActionForex.com
      -

      While GBP is the star performer today, the weekly top movers table shows CAD is the real strong one. CADJPY’s break of 86.05 resistance last week confirmed up trend resumption. That’s consistent with our view here on Monday that CAD/JPY was a better choice for trend trading than EUR/JPY.

      The framework of using just the top movers table, heat map and action bias could be used to identify, or rule out, trend trading candidates. For counter trend trading, the results of the frame work are less accurate, just as our views on GBPCHF and NZDUSD reversals were wrong. But reversals are harder to call anyway.

      CADJPY Action Bias table and D Action Bias chart are both consistent with the view that rise from 80.52 is extending, and with solid momentum.

      Back to the regular bar chart, CADJPY is now reading to target 61.8% projection of 80.52 to 85.75 from 83.88 at 87.11. Near term bullishness will remain as long as 85.57 support holds, in case of retreat.

      RBA Lowe: Interest rate to stay at current level for years

        By
        ActionForex.com
        -

        RBA Governor Philip Lowe said today that “it’s likely we’re going to see interest rates at their current level for years”. “We do face a world where there’ll be a shadow from the virus for quite a few years,” he added”. “People will be more risk-averse, they won’t want to borrow, in Australia we’re going to have lower population dynamics.”

        He also said the 7.1% unemployment in Australia was a “misleading indicator” because many people had already given up looking for jobs. Work hours were also lower than they would want. “We just don’t know what constitutes full employment in terms of an unemployment rate,” he said. “We should be seeking to get to full employment however we define that in terms of unemployment, underemployment and hours worked.”

        Regarding the Australian Dollar, he’d “like a lower” one, with “lower unemployment and slightly higher inflation”.

        UK unemployment rate unchanged at 3.9%, wage growth matched expectations, Sterling steady

          By
          ActionForex.com
          -

          UK unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.9% in February, matched expectations. Average weekly earnings including bonus rose 3.4% 3moy, matched expectation. Average weekly earnings ex-bonus rose 3.4% 3moy, also matched expectations. Claimant count rose 28.3k in March, above expectation of 20.0k.

          Full release here.

          GBP/USD is steady after the release, extending recent sideway consolidation.

          New Zealand imports rose 12% yoy in Oct, imports rose 26% yoy

            By
            ActionForex.com
            -

            New Zealand goods exports rose 12% yoy to NZD 5.3B in October. Goods imports rose 26% yoy to NZD 6.6B. Trade deficit came in at NZD -1.3B, versus expectation of NZD -1.6B.

            Exports to China was up 20%, Australia down -6.5%, USA up 12%, Japan 30%, EU up 11%. Imports from China rose 29%, EU up 33%, Australia up 7.5%, USD up 13%, Japan up 52%.

            Full release here.

            RBA hikes 25bps, further increases needed over the months ahead

              By
              ActionForex.com
              -

              RBA raises the cash rate target by 25bps to 3.35% as widely expected. The Board also expects that “further increases in interest rates will be needed over the months ahead”. To assess “how much” further hike is needed, close attention will be paid to “developments in the global economy, trends in household spending and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.”

              The central noted that underlying inflation at 6.9% in December was “high than expected” with “strong domestic demand “adding to the inflationary pressures in a number of areas of the economy.” Inflation is expected to decline to 4.75% this year, then to around 3% by mid-2025. Medium-term inflation expectation remain” well anchored”.

              GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.50% in 2023 and 2024. Unemployment rate is projected to rise form current 3.50% to 3.75% by the end of 2023, and then 4.50% by mid-2025.

              Full statement here.

              Fed Harker: US economy roaring back but jobs still down signficantly

                By
                ActionForex.com
                -

                Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said in a speech that US economy is “by and large” in good shape overall. GDP has come “roaring back”, consumption, housing, and manufacturing are “extremely healthy”, while workers’ incomes are rising.

                However, “even as GDP has almost entirely recouped its losses from last year, employment remains down significantly,” he added. “We still have nearly 7.6 million fewer people working than we did before the pandemic. And if you assume we would have maintained our prepandemic job growth of around 200,000 jobs a month had COVID-19 never arrived, we’re really down around 10.6 million jobs.”

                Full speech here.

                Gold capped below 1800, more downside mildly in favor

                  By
                  ActionForex.com
                  -

                  Gold weakens mildly today but quickly recovered. Overall it’s staying in very tight range below 1796.64 minor resistance, and 1800 handle. Fall from 1916.38 is still in favor to continue. Such decline is seen as another falling leg of the whole corrective pattern from 2074.84. Break of 1760.71 temporary low will target 1676.65 support. We’d expect strong support from there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. On the upside, break of 1796.63 will bring stronger rebound back to 55 day EMA (now at 1822.94).

                  The next move in Gold would be use to double confirm the next direction in Dollar elsewhere.

                  UK CPI rose to 0.60% yoy in Dec, core CPI rose to 1.4% yoy

                    By
                    ActionForex.com
                    -

                    UK CPI rose to 0.6% yoy in December, up from 0.3% yoy, above expectation of 0.5% yoy. CPI core rose to 1.4% yoy, up from 1.1% yoy, above expectation of 1.3% yoy. RPI also rose to 1.2% yoy, up from 0.9% yoy, above expectation of 1.1% yoy.

                    Full release here.

                    Fed’s Mester foresees further tightening to ensure downward trajectory of inflation

                      By
                      ActionForex.com
                      -

                      Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester emphasized the need for further tightening in monetary policy to ensure a “sustained downward trajectory” of inflation. She pointed out that “demand is still outpacing supply in both product and labor markets and inflation remains too high.”

                      To tackle the persistent inflation, Mester suggested that monetary policy will need to “move somewhat further into restrictive territory”, with fed funds rate “moving above 5%” and “real fed funds rate staying positive for some time”. However, she also acknowledged that the tightening journey is closer to its end than the beginning, with future rate decisions being dependent on the economy’s performance.

                      Mester expects the unemployment rate to rise to between 4.5% and 4.75% and inflation to ease to 3.75% this year. She projects that inflation will reach the central bank’s 2% target by 2025. In response to an audience question, Mester emphasized the Fed’s aim for a “soft landing” and mentioned that she expects slow growth, well below 1%, in the current economic environment.

                      US exports of goods and services rose 3.5% mom in Apr, imports dropped -3.4% mom

                        By
                        ActionForex.com
                        -

                        US exports of goods and services rose 3.5% mom to USD 252.6B in April. Imports dropped -3.4% mom to USD 339.7B. Trade deficit narrowed from USD 107.7B to USD 87.1B, versus expectation of USD 89.3B.

                        In Q1, goods and services trade deficit with China increased USD 22.9B to USD 112.7B. The deficit with Canada increased USD 9.6B to USD 19.1B. The surplus with the United Kingdom increased USD 2.5B to USD 5.8B.

                        Full release here.

                        MOFCOM: China-US trade talks enhanced mutual understanding and laid foundation for resolving mutual concerns

                          By
                          ActionForex.com
                          -

                          In a relatively brief statement, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said the trade talks with the US this week were extensive and laid down the foundation for resolving trade friction between the countries.

                          The MOFCOM statement said “The two sides actively implemented the important consensus of the two heads of state and conducted extensive, in-depth and meticulous exchanges on trade issues and structural issues of common concern, which enhanced mutual understanding and laid the foundation for resolving mutual concerns. Both parties agreed to continue to maintain close contact.”

                          Full statement in simplified Chinese.

                          US ADP jobs grew 296k in Apr, pay growth slowed

                            By
                            ActionForex.com
                            -

                            US ADP private employment grew 296k in April, well above expectation of 150k. By sector, goods-producing jobs rose 67k. Service-providing jobs rose 229. By establishment size, small companies added 121k jobs, medium companies added 122k, large companies added 47k.

                            Median change in annual pay of job-stayers rose 6.7% yoy, slowed slightly from 6.9% yoy. Median change in annual pay of job-changers rose 13.2% yoy, slowed notably from 14.2% yoy.

                            “The slowdown in pay growth gives the clearest signal of what’s going on in the labor market right now. Employers are hiring aggressively while holding pay gains in check as workers come off the sidelines. Our data also shows fewer people are switching jobs.” Nela Richardson, Chief Economist, ADP, said.

                            Full US ADP release here.

                            AUD/JPY loses momentum, limited near term upside potential

                              By
                              ActionForex.com
                              -

                              AUD/JPY’s rebound from 73.13 continued to lose upside momentum, as seen in 4 hour MACD. Current development argues that near term upside potent is limited even in case of another rise.

                              Structure of the rebound from 73.13 corrective looking so far. It’s seen as the second leg of the consolidation pattern from 78.46. . Thus, even in case of another rise, strong resistance should be seen around 78.46 to limit upside. Break of 76.55 minor support should start the third leg of the consolidation, through 75.40 support, towards 73.13 support.

                              Empire State manufacturing dropped to lowest well over a year

                                By
                                ActionForex.com
                                -

                                Empire State manufacturing index dropped sharply to 3.9 in January, down from 10.9, and missed expectation of 11.6. That’s also the lowest level in “well over a year” since mid-2017. Also, the headline index has already fallen a cumulative 18 pts since November. Additionally, firms were “less optimistic about the six-month outlook than in recent months.”The index for future business conditions fell thirteen points to 17.8, and the indexes for future new orders and shipments also declined.

                                Full release here.

                                Also from the US, in December, headline PPI dropped -0.2% mom rose 2.5% yoy, versus expectation of 0.0% mom, 2.5% yoy. PPI core dropped -0.1% om, rose 2.7%, versus expectation of 0.2% mom, 2.7% yoy.

                                Full PPI release here.

                                BoE Mann: Embedded inflation becomes a domestic problem

                                  By
                                  ActionForex.com
                                  -

                                  BoE MPC member Catherine Mann said yesterday, “we already have very rapid increase in oil prices… In the U.K., that it becomes embedded by virtue of the institution mechanism of the price cap” on domestic energy bills.

                                  “That embeddedness becomes a domestic inflationary problem that we have to deal with on the monetary policy stage,” she said.

                                  “You only get inflation if businesses raise their prices. That’s where it comes from. It doesn’t come from wage settlements. It comes from businesses’ capacity to raise their prices in a systematic way and sustain demand,” she said.

                                  Markets pricing in 85% chance of Fed funds rate at 0.75-1.00% after June

                                    By
                                    ActionForex.com
                                    -

                                    Chance of medium term bearish reversal in Dollar Index is quickly surging as markets are now very aggressive pricing in large rate cuts by Fed. As fed funds futures imply, there is 100% chance of a -50bps cut to 1.00-1.25% this month. More importantly, there is now 85.5% chance of at least one more cut to 0.75-1.00% after June FOMC meeting.

                                    DXY dropped sharply again overnight to close at 97.36. 61.8% retracement of 96.35 to 99.91 at 97.71 was taken out decisively. And focus is now turned to 96.35 key support. Break there will confirm medium term topping at 99.91. Deeper fall should at least be seen to 38.2% retracement of 88.25 to 99.91 at 95.45. There is risk of further decline to 61.8% at 92.70, depending on the reactions fro 95.45.

                                    China Caixin PMI composite hits 21-month high, domestic and foreign demand improved

                                      By
                                      ActionForex.com
                                      -

                                      China Caixin PMI Services rose to 53.5 in November, up from 51.1, beat expectation of 51.2. PMI Composite rose to 53.2, up from 52.0, highest in 21 months. Markit said that both manufacturers and services providers see solid increases in output. Overall inflationary pressures remain weak.

                                      Commenting on the China General Services PMI™ data, Dr. Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group said: “China’s economy continued to recover in November, as domestic and foreign demand both improved. But business confidence remained subdued, reflecting the impact from uncertainties generated by the China-U.S. trade conflicts. That will restrain a recovery in economic growth. The trade dispute is the major reason behind the slowing economic growth this year, and will become a key factor affecting the stabilization and recovery of China’s economy next year.”

                                      Full release here.

                                      French GDP grew 0.3% in Q4, positive contribution from foreign trade

                                        By
                                        ActionForex.com
                                        -

                                        French GDP grew 0.3% qoq in Q4, matched expectations. Over the year, growth slowed to 1.5% in 2018, down from 2.3% in 2017. Looking at the details, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes decelerated: it contributed 0.2 points to GDP growth, after 0.5 points in the previous quarter. Foreign trade balance contributed positively to GDP growth again: +0.3 points, after +0.2 points in Q3. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth again (−0.2 points after −0.4 points).

                                        Full release here.

                                        Japan’s PMI Composite up to 50.4, expansion resumes with inflation resurgence

                                          By
                                          ActionForex.com
                                          -

                                          Japan’s PMI data for December presents a mixed picture of the country’s economic The PMI Manufacturing index fell to 47.7 from 48.3, underperforming the market expectation of 48.2 and indicating contraction in the sector. In contrast, PMI Services index rose from 50.8 to 52.0. Consequently, PMI Composite index, moved back into expansion territory, rising from 49.6 to 50.4.

                                          Annabel Fiddes, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, noted, “The December PMI surveys indicate that Japan’s private sector experienced a renewed, albeit mild increase in overall business activity as the year came to a close.”

                                          Fiddes further elaborated, “The overall performance of the private sector remained subdued.” This is evident in the composite new business, which declined for the second consecutive month. Although there was modest sales growth in the service sector, it was not sufficient to offset the sharp and accelerated drop in manufacturing orders.

                                          Another critical aspect highlighted in the PMI report is the resurgence of inflationary pressures. Fiddes noted, “The latest survey also indicated a renewed pick up in inflationary pressures amid reports that a weaker exchange rate and higher labor and raw material costs had pushed up expenses.” As a result, the prices charged by Japanese firms increased at the fastest pace since August.

                                          Full Japan PMI release here.

                                          1...651652653...682Page 652 of 682

                                          ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for over a decade. Empowering the individual traders was, is, and will always be our motto going forward.

                                          Contact us: contact@actionforex.com

                                          © ActionForex.com © 2024 All rights reserved.