Ifo downgraded German growth forecasts notably

    The Ifo said in a report today that “Storm Clouds Gather Over German Economy“. It said, the upswing since last year has “lost impetus” and “international economic risks in particular have growth significantly.

    German GDP growth is expected to slow from 2017’s 2.2% to 1.8% in 2018 and 1.8% in 2019. That’s notable downward revision from Spring forecasts of 2.2% in 2018 and 2.0% in 2019.

    Inflation, though, is projected to climb from 1.8% in 2017 to 2.0% in 2018 and 2.1% in 2019. That’s upward revisions from Spring forecasts of 1.7% in 2018 and 1.9% in 2019.

    Even after the downward revision in growth projection, Ifo noted that downward risks have “increased significantly”. In particular, it singled out the US as external risk. It pointed out “in June 2018 the USA introduced tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminium imports from Canada, Mexico and the European Union. Although the long-term effects of these tariffs are relatively weak, the USA is currently considering whether it should introduce a tariff on imported cars too. Overall, this would lead to considerably higher GDP losses. At the same time, the EU and China have announced retaliatory tariffs, meaning that the introduction of further trade barriers is no longer a negligible risk.”

    In addition, Ifo pointed to US triggered supply side driving oil price surge as another risk. It noted, “the increase in oil prices up until the beginning of this year were largely demand-side driven. Since then friction between the USA and Iran have promoted a supply-side in-crease in oil prices, which is likely to have a dampening impact on the world economy. If the pressure from the US government on the EU were to become so great that the EU revoked the nuclear agreement, oil prices would continue to rise and curb growth in world production.”

    Full releases here.

    ECB Draghi: Policy to remain patient, persistent and prudent

      ECB President Mario Draghi delivers his speech on “Monetary policy in the euro area” at the ECB Forum on Central Banking today.

      He opened by saying that “the euro area’s economy continues on a growth path and inflation is gradually returning towards our objective.” But recent data created “questions about the durability of the growth outlook”. And, the financial crisis presented policy makers with “new issues and fresh challenges in understanding the wage- and price-setting process.” For now, “ample degree of monetary accommodation” will help lifting inflation towards target. And that will be “maintained even after a gradual winding-down of our net asset purchases.” Draghi emphasized that “this requires monetary policy in the euro area to remain patient, persistent and prudent.”

      Draghi reiterated the decisions made last week on ending the asset purchase program in December, reinvesting the principle payments afterwards, and, keep interest rates unchanged through the summer of 2019. He added that “this enhanced forward guidance clearly signals that we will remain patient in determining the timing of the first rate rise and will take a gradual approach to adjusting policy thereafter.

      Full speech here.

      RBA unsure next move is a hike?

        A major surprise from the RBA minutes released today is that it no longer predicts the next rate move as a increase. Back in the April and May meeting minutes, the central bank noted that “in the current circumstances, members agreed that it was more likely that the next move in the cash rate would be up, rather than down.” But such reference is taken out from the June minutes. It could be a sign that RBA is less confidence that the next move is a rate hike.

        While that’s a notable change, it shouldn’t be taken too seriously for the time being. The minutes were on the meeting held on June 5. On June 13, last Wednesday, RBA Governor Philip Lowe reiterated in a speech that “the national accounts provided confirmation that the Australian economy is moving in the right direction … If this continues to be the case, it is likely that the next move in interest rates will be up, not down.”

        Otherwise, the minutes revealed nothing special. The main factor behind RBA’s neutral stance is sluggish wage growth. It reiterated that the unemployment rate steadied at 5.5%. Ratio of job vacancies to the number of unemployed workers had remained well below levels seen a decade earlier. Both suggested that “spare capacity remained in the labour market.” And, “wages had continued to grow at a low and stable rate”.

        China condemns US blackmailing after Trump threatens with extra tariffs on USD 200B Chinese products

          Trump ordered US Trade Representative to identify USD 200B worth of Chinese products for additional 10% tariffs. It noted in the statement that “the initial tariffs that the President asked us to put in place were proportionate and responsive to forced technology transfer and intellectual property theft by the Chinese. It is very unfortunate that instead of eliminating these unfair trading practices China said that it intends to impose unjustified tariffs targeting U.S. workers, farmers, ranchers, and businesses. At the President’s direction, USTR is preparing the proposed tariffs to offset China’s action.”

          Full USTR statement.

          The Chinese Ministry of Commerce vowed to fight back with “qualitative” and “quantitative” for any additional tariffs. The MOFCOM condemned to initiative of imposing extra tariffs on USD 200B of Chinese goods. It said in a statement today that “Such a practice of extreme pressure and blackmailing deviates from the consensus reached by both sides on multiple occasions, and is a disappointment for the international community.” And, “the United States has initiated a trade war and violated market regulations, and is harming the interests of not just the people of China and the U.S., but of the world.”

          MOFCOM statement (in simplified Chinese).

          US farmer group to launch TV ads against trade war

            Trump’s protectionist trade policy are causing a lot of concerns from US farmers. The steel and aluminum tariffs on Mexico have already triggered retaliation on US agriculture products. The trade war with China is even a bigger concern. Brian Kuehl, executive director of Farmers for Free Trade, said “the reason you are seeing people increase the pressure now is because the pressure is increasing on them. Now the impact is really starting to hit. It is not something you can just take lightly.”

            The group issued a statement last week in response to the section 301 tariffs on China. There it noted imposing tariffs on China is “no longer a negotiating tactic” and it’s a “tax” on farmers livelihoods. It’s “downright scary”. And the group criticized that the tariffs is a “win for our competitors”, including South Maerica and Australia. The group called for elected officials to stop this trade war.

            Here is the statement:

            Farmers for Free Trade Executive Director, Brian Kuehl released the following statement following reports that the Administration will move forward with $50 billion in tariffs on China which are expected to result in heavy retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural exports.

            “For American farmers this isn’t theoretical anymore, it’s downright scary. It’s no longer a negotiating tactic, it’s a tax on their livelihoods. Within days, soybean, corn, wheat and other American farmers are likely to be hit with retaliatory tariff of up to 25% on exports that keep their operations afloat. When they do, they’re not going to remain silent.

            “The imposition of these tariffs is not only a blow to our farmers, it’s a win for our competitors. When American soybeans and corn become more expensive, South America wins. When beef becomes more expensive, Australia wins. As this trade war drags on, farmers will rightly question why our competitors are winning while we’re losing.

            “Farmers for Free Trade will continue to hold town hall meetings across the country this summer to ensure farmer’s voices are being heard. The message will be loud and clear: American farmers demand that elected officials support them by ending this trade war.”

            The group will also launch a TV ads on Tuesday in  Pennsylvania and Michigan urging Trump to stop trade war.

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            US halts wargames with South Korea, continues with Japan

              The joint military exercises of the US and South Korea are formally halted. The South Korean defense ministry said in a statement that “South Korea and the United States have agreed to suspend all planning activities regarding the Freedom Guardian military drill scheduled for August.” Pentagon spokeswoman Dana White said separately that “we are still coordinating additional actions. No decisions on subsequent wargames have been made.”

              On the other hand, the join military exercises of US and Japan will continue as usual. Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said there is no change to the planned drills. And, Suga added “the United States is in a position to keep its commitment to its allied nations’ defense and our understanding is there is no change to the U.S. commitment to the Japan-U.S. alliance and the structure of American troops stationed in Japan.”

              At the same time, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un arrives in Beijing today for a two-day visit. It’s believed that Kim will brief Chinese President Xi Jinping on last week’s summit with Trump in Singapore.

              Fed Bostic: Business optimism replaced trade policy and tariffs concerns

                Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic delivered a speech titled “The Path to Economic Resilience” to the Rotary Club os Savannah yesterday. There he expressed his support further further rate hike as the economy “appears to be in a pretty good place”.

                His growth outlook “hasn’t changed materially” since the start of the year and output is expected to growth at a “moderately above-trend pace this year and next”, then slow to slightly less than 2%.

                Regarding inflation, Bostic said he hasn’t seen a “dramatic shift” in inflation expectation or measured retail price inflation yet. And aggregate wage growth “appears to have flattened out” over the past year to a level that’s inline with fundamentals.

                Bostic is comfortable to “move policy toward a more neutral stance”, where it’s “neither accommodative nor restrictive”. While neutral rate is “something we know with precision”, he believed Fed is getting close to the “lower part of most plausible estimates of the neutral rate”. And he noted the key question is the number of hikes are required to reach neutral.

                He also warned of trade policy of the US. Bostic said “I began the year with a decided upside tilt to my risk profile for growth, reflecting business optimism following the passage of tax reform. However, that optimism has almost completely faded among my contacts, replaced by concerns about trade policy and tariffs. Perceived uncertainty has risen markedly. Projects already under way are continuing, but I get the sense that the bar for new investment is currently quite high. ‘Risk off’ behavior appears to be the dominant sentiment among my contacts. In response, I’ve shifted the risks to my growth outlook to balanced.”

                ECB Vasiliauskas: Rate hike goes towards autumn

                  ECB Governing Council member, Lithuania’s central bank governor Vitas Vasiliauskas said today that the foreward guidance suggested rate hike could come around autumn of 2019.

                  He noted, “we said ‘through the summer’, but as traditionally there is no meeting in August, it is obvious that we could talk about September-October.”

                  So, “I’d say it goes towards autumn.”

                  John Williams takes over New York Fed, pledges openness and transparency

                    Ex-San Francisco Fed President John Williams takes over the job of New York Fed President today. In a statement, he pledged openness and transparency, objectivity and independence of thought, and commitment to the diverse needs of familis and business across the District.

                    Below is the full statement.

                    Statement from President Williams

                    I am pleased to be starting my tenure today as president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. As someone who has dedicated his career to public service, I can think of no better place from where to continue to support the nation’s economic well-being.

                    The New York Fed plays a unique role in the Federal Reserve System, with responsibilities for implementing monetary policy, managing a critical payments system, overseeing a large number of complex financial institutions and managing international relationships. I take each of these responsibilities with the utmost seriousness and am committed to executing my role as president of the New York Fed and on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to the absolute best of my ability.

                    So what can you, the public, expect of me?

                    • Openness and transparency. I am dedicated to learning from a wide range of perspectives and experiences from across the District. Openness flows both ways, and we have a duty to explain the reasoning behind our actions. I am committed to acting in as transparent a manner as possible.
                    • Objectivity and independence of thought. I will continue to make monetary policy recommendations based on what I believe is in the best interest of our economy. Throughout, I will strive to explain my reasoning, particularly when my views may differ from those of others.
                    • Commitment to the diverse needs of families and businesses across our District. Understanding the varied financial and economic needs of families, businesses, and communities, and advocating for them at the policy table is a critical component of my role. I am equally committed to building a diverse and inclusive workforce and workplace at the New York Fed, which will help us better serve our communities.

                    I start my first day with a deep commitment to securing the stability of our financial system and prosperity for our economy. I look forward to engaging with and learning from members of our communities and stakeholders throughout the District and beyond.

                    John C. Williams became the 11th president and chief executive officer of the New York Fed on June 18, 2018.

                    South and North Korea to form combined team in Asia Games

                      South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s officials took another solid step in creating peace in the peninsula. South Korean Culture, Sports and Tourism Ministry’s chief delegate Jeon Choong-ryul held a successful meeting with his North Korean counterpart Won Kil U.

                      They agreed to hold a joint basketball match in Pyongyang on July 4. More than that, they agreed to form some combined teams at Asian Games in Indonesia in August. They also agreed to march together at the Asian Games as a sign of unity. This is a repeat of what they did in the Winter Olympics in South Korea back in February.

                      Into US session: Euro recovering post ECB losses

                        Entering into US session, Euro receives a wave of buying in the current 4H. It’s probably already past the first post-ECB selling climax.

                        Still, upside momentum is not too convincing as seen in EUR Action Bias table.

                        We’ve mentioned here out hesitation on selling EUR/USD right after ECB as D action bias didn’t turn downside red. And it happened that D action bias is still staying in neutral green.

                        Though, the overall outlook stays bearish in EUR/USD and it’s just a matter of time for downside breakout. Hence, we’ll stick with a safer strategy to sell EUR/USD at 1.1700, slightly above 4 hour 55 EMA, with stop above 1.1851 resistance.

                        Abe’s advisor Kawai: Alliance with US changed to a transactional one under Trump

                          Katsuyuki Kawai, a ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lawmaker who advises Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on foreign affairs, raised his “personal” concern over the change in US foreign policy under Trump. He said in a Reuters interview that the alliance between Japan and the US has “changed from one based on shared values to a transactional alliance.” And, “this is the reality now”. He also pointed to the Kim-Trump submit and said it “will serve as a trigger for the Japanese people to begin to realize that it is risky to leave Japan’s destiny to another country.”

                          An unnamed Japanese government source also said “trade is more worrisome,” and “it’s getting worse … There is no reliable (U.S.) cabinet level person who can say ‘No’ to unreasonable proposals.”

                          The Nikkei business newspaper also criticized in a weekend analysis that “Mr. Trump mixes up economics and security with the mind-set of a real estate deal is a big cause for concern”.

                          Oil recovers as OPEC might raise output by only 300k to 500k barrels a day

                            According to a Bloomberg report, OPEC members could finally compromise of raising production by 300k – 600k barrels a day over the next few months. Such increase will likely be taken up mainly by those with spare capacity, like Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United Arab Emirates. But it’s unsure whether this can be the consensus in the upcoming OPEC+ meeting in Vienna this week.

                            Russia is proposing an increase of of 1.5m barrels a day. And the increase would be shared proportionally among all members. But some countries like Venezuela would be unable to raise the output.

                            Oil price responded positively to the news. WTI crude oil dipped to as low as 63.59 earlier today but is now back at 64.69.

                            Bundesbank: Projection paints a picture of an ongoing economic boom

                              In the Bundesbank’s June Monthly Report published today, it noted “all in all, the projection paints a picture of an ongoing economic boom, in which increasing supply-side bottlenecks are reflected in strong wage growth and in higher domestic inflation.” It projected German GDP growth to slow to 2.0% in 2018, 1.9% in 2019 and then 1.6% in 2020. HICP inflation is projected to be rather steady, at 1.8% in 2018, 1.7% in 2019 and 1.8% in 2018.

                              But Bundesbank also warned that “risks outweigh opportunities”. President Jens Weidmann noted that “uncertainties regarding the prospects for the German economy are considerably greater than they were.” And, downside risks relating to the external environment outweigh the effects resulting from the probably more expansionary fiscal policy in Germany.

                              In particular, exports and commercial investment are likely to see weaker growth. employment growth is dampened by growing lack of skilled workers. And that tens to “brake” the rise in household disposable incomes.

                              Here is the link to the monthly report.

                              Here is the Outlook for the German economy – macroeconomic projections for 2018 and 2019 and an outlook for 2020

                              NZIER: Growth and NZD expectations lowered

                                The NZ Institute of Economic Research downgraded growth forecast for the New Zealand economy. Weaker exports “drive much of this downward revision in near term”. But from 2019 onwards, “expectations of weaker growth in investment explain the softer growth outlook”. Though, NZIER noted that expectations for growth remain reasonably healthy through to 2021.

                                Real GDP growth is projected to be 2.8% in 2017/18, 2.9% in 2018/19, 3.2% in 2019/20 and 2.9% in 2020/21. That compares to March survey result of 2.9% in 2017.19, 3.1% in 2018/19, 3.3% in 2019/20 and 2.9% in 2020.21. .

                                NZD expectations were also revised lower. NZIER pointed to Fed’s rate hike in the coming year. Meanwhile, RBNZ is expected to keep OCR on hold “until at least the middle of next year”. And, “this should reduce the yield attractiveness of the NZD, and hence weigh on the currency.

                                New Zealand Dollar TWI is projected to average at 75.5 in 2017/18, 72.6 in 2018/19, 72.3 in 2019/20 and 72.0 in 2020/21. That compares to March survey result of 75.2 in 2017/18, 73.1 in 2018/19, 73.1 in 2019/20 and 72.8 in 2020/21.

                                NZIER also noted that RBNZ’s May MPS indicates that “interest rates were just as likely to go down as up.” Nonetheless ” the central bank’s forecasts indicate the OCR is likely to increase, although not till later in 2019. Consensus Forecasts for interest rates have been revised slightly lower from 2019.”

                                Full release here.

                                BCC: UK economy in a torpor amid Brexit uncertainties, rate hikes, trade war and oil prices

                                  The British Chambers of Commerce slightly downgraded UK growth forecasts for 2018 to 1.3%, from 1.4%. For 2019, growth projection was downgraded to 1.4%, from 1.5%. And it said that, if realized, 2018 would be the weakest year since 2009. And it warned that the economy is in a ” torpor, with uncertainties around Brexit, interest rate rises, and international developments such as a possible trade war and rising oil prices” all having an impact.

                                  BCC said in a statement that “the downgrades have been largely driven by a more lacklustre outlook for consumer spending, business investment and trade”. And, growth in real wages is not expected to “translate into materially stronger spending over the forecast horizon”. And “weak productivity” would continue to limit wage growth. Household finances will remain “stretched amid historically low household savings and high debt levels.”

                                  Business investment growth is expected to slow sharply to 0.9% in 2018, down from 2.4% in 2019 on Brexit uncertainties. Next trade position is also expected to “weaken over the next few years”. Services growth is projected to slow to 1.2% in 2018, weakest since 2010.

                                  Full release here.

                                  Stopping war games could weaken US rationale to ask South Korea to pay more

                                    The Yonhap news agency reported that South Korea and the US would announce suspension of large scale joint military exercises this week, amid the negotiations with North Korea on denuclearization. A “snapback” clause, though, would be included if North Korea fails to deliver its promises.

                                    Yonhap also reported that suspension of the exercises could “weaken Washington’s rationale for an increase in Seoul’s share of the cost for the upkeep of 28,500 U.S. troops in the country.” And the US has been demanding the South to pay more. There will be a fourth round of so-called burden sharing costs negotiations in Seoul later this month.

                                    Meanwhile, Trump also made clear it’s his request to stop the “war games” as they are “very expensive”.

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                                    China announced retaliation tariffs on soybean, agricultural products, automobiles

                                      China announced retaliation tariffs on US importants, including soybean, agricultural products, automobiles. These products are valued at around USD 34B, will be subjected to 25% tariffs, starting July 6, 2018.

                                      China would also impose 25% tariffs on other products, valued at around USD 16B, including  chemicals, medical equipment, and energy products. Effective date is to be determined.

                                      Below is the “google-translated” statement. Original statement in simplified Chinese could be found here.

                                      Announcement on Imposing Tariff on Certain Products Originating in the United States

                                      On June 15, 2018, the U.S. government announced that it would impose an import tariff of 25% on China’s 50 billion U.S. dollar products, including levied tariffs on about US$34 billion of Chinese exports to the US The measures will be implemented on July 6. Additional tariff measures for the remaining US$16 billion will further seek public opinions. The United States disregards China’s resolute opposition and solemn representations and insists on taking actions that violate the rules of the World Trade Organization. It seriously violates China’s legitimate rights and interests under the rules of the World Trade Organization and threatens China’s economic interests and security.

                                      Regarding the emergency situation caused by the United States’ violation of its international obligations to China, and in order to defend its legitimate rights and interests, China decided to rely on the laws and regulations of the Foreign Trade Law of the People’s Republic of China and other basic principles of international law on soybean, agricultural products , automobiles , and water originating in the United States. Products and other imported goods are subject to tariff levying measures at a tax rate of 25%, involving about 34 billion U.S. dollars in imports from the United States in 2017 (see Annex 1). The above measures will take effect from July 6, 2018.

                                      At the same time, China intends to impose an import tariff of 25% on commodities imported from the United States, including chemicals, medical equipment, and energy products, involving approximately US$16 billion in US imports from the United States in 2017 (see Annex 2), final measures, and effective time. Will be announced separately .

                                      Annex:

                                      List of Customs Tariff Commissions of the State Council Concerning the Collection of Customs Products for the United States and Canada.pdf

                                      The Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council issues a list of tariffs on the United States and Canada.pdf

                                      MOFCOM: China to retaliate at same scale, same strength

                                        Response from the Chinese MOFCOM below. Original in simplified Chinese. Below is “google-translated”:

                                        China and the United States have conducted several rounds of consultations on economic and trade issues in an effort to resolve differences and achieve a win-win situation. We deeply regret that the United States has disregarded the consensus it has formed and is fickle, provoking a trade war. This move is not only damaging bilateral interests but also undermining the world trade order. China firmly opposes this.

                                        China does not want to fight a trade war. However, in the face of short-sighted behavior that the United States has done against people’s disadvantages, the Chinese side has to give a strong blow back, resolutely safeguard national interests and the interests of the people, and resolutely defend economic globalization and the multilateral trading system. We will immediately introduce taxation measures of the same scale and the same strength. All the economic and trade achievements previously reached by the two parties will be invalid at the same time.

                                        In today’s era, launching a trade war is not in the global interest. We call on all countries to take joint action, resolutely put an end to this outdated and regressive behavior, and firmly defend the common interests of mankind.

                                        US announced Tariffs on USD 34B of Chinese imports, starting July 6. Added USD 16B products for public hearing

                                          The US Trade Representative formally announced the section 301 tariffs on Chinese imports, targeting products related to the Made in China 2025 policy. USTR said these “strong defensive actions” are to ” protect America’s leadership in technology and innovation against the unprecedented threat posed by China’s theft of our intellectual property, the forced transfer of American technology, and its cyber attacks on our computer networks.” And it condemned that “China’s government is aggressively working to undermine America’s high-tech industries and our economic leadership through unfair trade practices and industrial policies like ‘Made in China 2025.'”

                                          There are two set of tariffs lines. The first set contains 818 lines of the original 1,333 lines announced in April. This set covers around USD 34B of Chinese imports. 25% tariffs will be imposed starting July 6, 2018. The second set contained 284 proposed tariff lines, covering around USD 16B in Chinese goods. This set will undergo further public view before finalizing.

                                          Altogether they’re valued around USD 50B. and focuses on products from industrial sectors that contribute to or benefit from the “Made in China 2025” industrial policy, which include industries such as aerospace, information and communications technology, robotics, industrial machinery, new materials, and automobiles. The list does not include goods commonly purchased by American consumers such as cellular telephones or televisions.