US farmer group to launch TV ads against trade war

    Trump’s protectionist trade policy are causing a lot of concerns from US farmers. The steel and aluminum tariffs on Mexico have already triggered retaliation on US agriculture products. The trade war with China is even a bigger concern. Brian Kuehl, executive director of Farmers for Free Trade, said “the reason you are seeing people increase the pressure now is because the pressure is increasing on them. Now the impact is really starting to hit. It is not something you can just take lightly.”

    The group issued a statement last week in response to the section 301 tariffs on China. There it noted imposing tariffs on China is “no longer a negotiating tactic” and it’s a “tax” on farmers livelihoods. It’s “downright scary”. And the group criticized that the tariffs is a “win for our competitors”, including South Maerica and Australia. The group called for elected officials to stop this trade war.

    Here is the statement:

    Farmers for Free Trade Executive Director, Brian Kuehl released the following statement following reports that the Administration will move forward with $50 billion in tariffs on China which are expected to result in heavy retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural exports.

    “For American farmers this isn’t theoretical anymore, it’s downright scary. It’s no longer a negotiating tactic, it’s a tax on their livelihoods. Within days, soybean, corn, wheat and other American farmers are likely to be hit with retaliatory tariff of up to 25% on exports that keep their operations afloat. When they do, they’re not going to remain silent.

    “The imposition of these tariffs is not only a blow to our farmers, it’s a win for our competitors. When American soybeans and corn become more expensive, South America wins. When beef becomes more expensive, Australia wins. As this trade war drags on, farmers will rightly question why our competitors are winning while we’re losing.

    “Farmers for Free Trade will continue to hold town hall meetings across the country this summer to ensure farmer’s voices are being heard. The message will be loud and clear: American farmers demand that elected officials support them by ending this trade war.”

    The group will also launch a TV ads on Tuesday in  Pennsylvania and Michigan urging Trump to stop trade war.

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    US halts wargames with South Korea, continues with Japan

      The joint military exercises of the US and South Korea are formally halted. The South Korean defense ministry said in a statement that “South Korea and the United States have agreed to suspend all planning activities regarding the Freedom Guardian military drill scheduled for August.” Pentagon spokeswoman Dana White said separately that “we are still coordinating additional actions. No decisions on subsequent wargames have been made.”

      On the other hand, the join military exercises of US and Japan will continue as usual. Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said there is no change to the planned drills. And, Suga added “the United States is in a position to keep its commitment to its allied nations’ defense and our understanding is there is no change to the U.S. commitment to the Japan-U.S. alliance and the structure of American troops stationed in Japan.”

      At the same time, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un arrives in Beijing today for a two-day visit. It’s believed that Kim will brief Chinese President Xi Jinping on last week’s summit with Trump in Singapore.

      Fed Bostic: Business optimism replaced trade policy and tariffs concerns

        Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic delivered a speech titled “The Path to Economic Resilience” to the Rotary Club os Savannah yesterday. There he expressed his support further further rate hike as the economy “appears to be in a pretty good place”.

        His growth outlook “hasn’t changed materially” since the start of the year and output is expected to growth at a “moderately above-trend pace this year and next”, then slow to slightly less than 2%.

        Regarding inflation, Bostic said he hasn’t seen a “dramatic shift” in inflation expectation or measured retail price inflation yet. And aggregate wage growth “appears to have flattened out” over the past year to a level that’s inline with fundamentals.

        Bostic is comfortable to “move policy toward a more neutral stance”, where it’s “neither accommodative nor restrictive”. While neutral rate is “something we know with precision”, he believed Fed is getting close to the “lower part of most plausible estimates of the neutral rate”. And he noted the key question is the number of hikes are required to reach neutral.

        He also warned of trade policy of the US. Bostic said “I began the year with a decided upside tilt to my risk profile for growth, reflecting business optimism following the passage of tax reform. However, that optimism has almost completely faded among my contacts, replaced by concerns about trade policy and tariffs. Perceived uncertainty has risen markedly. Projects already under way are continuing, but I get the sense that the bar for new investment is currently quite high. ‘Risk off’ behavior appears to be the dominant sentiment among my contacts. In response, I’ve shifted the risks to my growth outlook to balanced.”

        ECB Vasiliauskas: Rate hike goes towards autumn

          ECB Governing Council member, Lithuania’s central bank governor Vitas Vasiliauskas said today that the foreward guidance suggested rate hike could come around autumn of 2019.

          He noted, “we said ‘through the summer’, but as traditionally there is no meeting in August, it is obvious that we could talk about September-October.”

          So, “I’d say it goes towards autumn.”

          John Williams takes over New York Fed, pledges openness and transparency

            Ex-San Francisco Fed President John Williams takes over the job of New York Fed President today. In a statement, he pledged openness and transparency, objectivity and independence of thought, and commitment to the diverse needs of familis and business across the District.

            Below is the full statement.

            Statement from President Williams

            I am pleased to be starting my tenure today as president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. As someone who has dedicated his career to public service, I can think of no better place from where to continue to support the nation’s economic well-being.

            The New York Fed plays a unique role in the Federal Reserve System, with responsibilities for implementing monetary policy, managing a critical payments system, overseeing a large number of complex financial institutions and managing international relationships. I take each of these responsibilities with the utmost seriousness and am committed to executing my role as president of the New York Fed and on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to the absolute best of my ability.

            So what can you, the public, expect of me?

            • Openness and transparency. I am dedicated to learning from a wide range of perspectives and experiences from across the District. Openness flows both ways, and we have a duty to explain the reasoning behind our actions. I am committed to acting in as transparent a manner as possible.
            • Objectivity and independence of thought. I will continue to make monetary policy recommendations based on what I believe is in the best interest of our economy. Throughout, I will strive to explain my reasoning, particularly when my views may differ from those of others.
            • Commitment to the diverse needs of families and businesses across our District. Understanding the varied financial and economic needs of families, businesses, and communities, and advocating for them at the policy table is a critical component of my role. I am equally committed to building a diverse and inclusive workforce and workplace at the New York Fed, which will help us better serve our communities.

            I start my first day with a deep commitment to securing the stability of our financial system and prosperity for our economy. I look forward to engaging with and learning from members of our communities and stakeholders throughout the District and beyond.

            John C. Williams became the 11th president and chief executive officer of the New York Fed on June 18, 2018.

            South and North Korea to form combined team in Asia Games

              South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s officials took another solid step in creating peace in the peninsula. South Korean Culture, Sports and Tourism Ministry’s chief delegate Jeon Choong-ryul held a successful meeting with his North Korean counterpart Won Kil U.

              They agreed to hold a joint basketball match in Pyongyang on July 4. More than that, they agreed to form some combined teams at Asian Games in Indonesia in August. They also agreed to march together at the Asian Games as a sign of unity. This is a repeat of what they did in the Winter Olympics in South Korea back in February.

              Into US session: Euro recovering post ECB losses

                Entering into US session, Euro receives a wave of buying in the current 4H. It’s probably already past the first post-ECB selling climax.

                Still, upside momentum is not too convincing as seen in EUR Action Bias table.

                We’ve mentioned here out hesitation on selling EUR/USD right after ECB as D action bias didn’t turn downside red. And it happened that D action bias is still staying in neutral green.

                Though, the overall outlook stays bearish in EUR/USD and it’s just a matter of time for downside breakout. Hence, we’ll stick with a safer strategy to sell EUR/USD at 1.1700, slightly above 4 hour 55 EMA, with stop above 1.1851 resistance.

                Abe’s advisor Kawai: Alliance with US changed to a transactional one under Trump

                  Katsuyuki Kawai, a ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lawmaker who advises Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on foreign affairs, raised his “personal” concern over the change in US foreign policy under Trump. He said in a Reuters interview that the alliance between Japan and the US has “changed from one based on shared values to a transactional alliance.” And, “this is the reality now”. He also pointed to the Kim-Trump submit and said it “will serve as a trigger for the Japanese people to begin to realize that it is risky to leave Japan’s destiny to another country.”

                  An unnamed Japanese government source also said “trade is more worrisome,” and “it’s getting worse … There is no reliable (U.S.) cabinet level person who can say ‘No’ to unreasonable proposals.”

                  The Nikkei business newspaper also criticized in a weekend analysis that “Mr. Trump mixes up economics and security with the mind-set of a real estate deal is a big cause for concern”.

                  Oil recovers as OPEC might raise output by only 300k to 500k barrels a day

                    According to a Bloomberg report, OPEC members could finally compromise of raising production by 300k – 600k barrels a day over the next few months. Such increase will likely be taken up mainly by those with spare capacity, like Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United Arab Emirates. But it’s unsure whether this can be the consensus in the upcoming OPEC+ meeting in Vienna this week.

                    Russia is proposing an increase of of 1.5m barrels a day. And the increase would be shared proportionally among all members. But some countries like Venezuela would be unable to raise the output.

                    Oil price responded positively to the news. WTI crude oil dipped to as low as 63.59 earlier today but is now back at 64.69.

                    Bundesbank: Projection paints a picture of an ongoing economic boom

                      In the Bundesbank’s June Monthly Report published today, it noted “all in all, the projection paints a picture of an ongoing economic boom, in which increasing supply-side bottlenecks are reflected in strong wage growth and in higher domestic inflation.” It projected German GDP growth to slow to 2.0% in 2018, 1.9% in 2019 and then 1.6% in 2020. HICP inflation is projected to be rather steady, at 1.8% in 2018, 1.7% in 2019 and 1.8% in 2018.

                      But Bundesbank also warned that “risks outweigh opportunities”. President Jens Weidmann noted that “uncertainties regarding the prospects for the German economy are considerably greater than they were.” And, downside risks relating to the external environment outweigh the effects resulting from the probably more expansionary fiscal policy in Germany.

                      In particular, exports and commercial investment are likely to see weaker growth. employment growth is dampened by growing lack of skilled workers. And that tens to “brake” the rise in household disposable incomes.

                      Here is the link to the monthly report.

                      Here is the Outlook for the German economy – macroeconomic projections for 2018 and 2019 and an outlook for 2020

                      NZIER: Growth and NZD expectations lowered

                        The NZ Institute of Economic Research downgraded growth forecast for the New Zealand economy. Weaker exports “drive much of this downward revision in near term”. But from 2019 onwards, “expectations of weaker growth in investment explain the softer growth outlook”. Though, NZIER noted that expectations for growth remain reasonably healthy through to 2021.

                        Real GDP growth is projected to be 2.8% in 2017/18, 2.9% in 2018/19, 3.2% in 2019/20 and 2.9% in 2020/21. That compares to March survey result of 2.9% in 2017.19, 3.1% in 2018/19, 3.3% in 2019/20 and 2.9% in 2020.21. .

                        NZD expectations were also revised lower. NZIER pointed to Fed’s rate hike in the coming year. Meanwhile, RBNZ is expected to keep OCR on hold “until at least the middle of next year”. And, “this should reduce the yield attractiveness of the NZD, and hence weigh on the currency.

                        New Zealand Dollar TWI is projected to average at 75.5 in 2017/18, 72.6 in 2018/19, 72.3 in 2019/20 and 72.0 in 2020/21. That compares to March survey result of 75.2 in 2017/18, 73.1 in 2018/19, 73.1 in 2019/20 and 72.8 in 2020/21.

                        NZIER also noted that RBNZ’s May MPS indicates that “interest rates were just as likely to go down as up.” Nonetheless ” the central bank’s forecasts indicate the OCR is likely to increase, although not till later in 2019. Consensus Forecasts for interest rates have been revised slightly lower from 2019.”

                        Full release here.

                        BCC: UK economy in a torpor amid Brexit uncertainties, rate hikes, trade war and oil prices

                          The British Chambers of Commerce slightly downgraded UK growth forecasts for 2018 to 1.3%, from 1.4%. For 2019, growth projection was downgraded to 1.4%, from 1.5%. And it said that, if realized, 2018 would be the weakest year since 2009. And it warned that the economy is in a ” torpor, with uncertainties around Brexit, interest rate rises, and international developments such as a possible trade war and rising oil prices” all having an impact.

                          BCC said in a statement that “the downgrades have been largely driven by a more lacklustre outlook for consumer spending, business investment and trade”. And, growth in real wages is not expected to “translate into materially stronger spending over the forecast horizon”. And “weak productivity” would continue to limit wage growth. Household finances will remain “stretched amid historically low household savings and high debt levels.”

                          Business investment growth is expected to slow sharply to 0.9% in 2018, down from 2.4% in 2019 on Brexit uncertainties. Next trade position is also expected to “weaken over the next few years”. Services growth is projected to slow to 1.2% in 2018, weakest since 2010.

                          Full release here.

                          Stopping war games could weaken US rationale to ask South Korea to pay more

                            The Yonhap news agency reported that South Korea and the US would announce suspension of large scale joint military exercises this week, amid the negotiations with North Korea on denuclearization. A “snapback” clause, though, would be included if North Korea fails to deliver its promises.

                            Yonhap also reported that suspension of the exercises could “weaken Washington’s rationale for an increase in Seoul’s share of the cost for the upkeep of 28,500 U.S. troops in the country.” And the US has been demanding the South to pay more. There will be a fourth round of so-called burden sharing costs negotiations in Seoul later this month.

                            Meanwhile, Trump also made clear it’s his request to stop the “war games” as they are “very expensive”.

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                            China announced retaliation tariffs on soybean, agricultural products, automobiles

                              China announced retaliation tariffs on US importants, including soybean, agricultural products, automobiles. These products are valued at around USD 34B, will be subjected to 25% tariffs, starting July 6, 2018.

                              China would also impose 25% tariffs on other products, valued at around USD 16B, including  chemicals, medical equipment, and energy products. Effective date is to be determined.

                              Below is the “google-translated” statement. Original statement in simplified Chinese could be found here.

                              Announcement on Imposing Tariff on Certain Products Originating in the United States

                              On June 15, 2018, the U.S. government announced that it would impose an import tariff of 25% on China’s 50 billion U.S. dollar products, including levied tariffs on about US$34 billion of Chinese exports to the US The measures will be implemented on July 6. Additional tariff measures for the remaining US$16 billion will further seek public opinions. The United States disregards China’s resolute opposition and solemn representations and insists on taking actions that violate the rules of the World Trade Organization. It seriously violates China’s legitimate rights and interests under the rules of the World Trade Organization and threatens China’s economic interests and security.

                              Regarding the emergency situation caused by the United States’ violation of its international obligations to China, and in order to defend its legitimate rights and interests, China decided to rely on the laws and regulations of the Foreign Trade Law of the People’s Republic of China and other basic principles of international law on soybean, agricultural products , automobiles , and water originating in the United States. Products and other imported goods are subject to tariff levying measures at a tax rate of 25%, involving about 34 billion U.S. dollars in imports from the United States in 2017 (see Annex 1). The above measures will take effect from July 6, 2018.

                              At the same time, China intends to impose an import tariff of 25% on commodities imported from the United States, including chemicals, medical equipment, and energy products, involving approximately US$16 billion in US imports from the United States in 2017 (see Annex 2), final measures, and effective time. Will be announced separately .

                              Annex:

                              List of Customs Tariff Commissions of the State Council Concerning the Collection of Customs Products for the United States and Canada.pdf

                              The Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council issues a list of tariffs on the United States and Canada.pdf

                              MOFCOM: China to retaliate at same scale, same strength

                                Response from the Chinese MOFCOM below. Original in simplified Chinese. Below is “google-translated”:

                                China and the United States have conducted several rounds of consultations on economic and trade issues in an effort to resolve differences and achieve a win-win situation. We deeply regret that the United States has disregarded the consensus it has formed and is fickle, provoking a trade war. This move is not only damaging bilateral interests but also undermining the world trade order. China firmly opposes this.

                                China does not want to fight a trade war. However, in the face of short-sighted behavior that the United States has done against people’s disadvantages, the Chinese side has to give a strong blow back, resolutely safeguard national interests and the interests of the people, and resolutely defend economic globalization and the multilateral trading system. We will immediately introduce taxation measures of the same scale and the same strength. All the economic and trade achievements previously reached by the two parties will be invalid at the same time.

                                In today’s era, launching a trade war is not in the global interest. We call on all countries to take joint action, resolutely put an end to this outdated and regressive behavior, and firmly defend the common interests of mankind.

                                US announced Tariffs on USD 34B of Chinese imports, starting July 6. Added USD 16B products for public hearing

                                  The US Trade Representative formally announced the section 301 tariffs on Chinese imports, targeting products related to the Made in China 2025 policy. USTR said these “strong defensive actions” are to ” protect America’s leadership in technology and innovation against the unprecedented threat posed by China’s theft of our intellectual property, the forced transfer of American technology, and its cyber attacks on our computer networks.” And it condemned that “China’s government is aggressively working to undermine America’s high-tech industries and our economic leadership through unfair trade practices and industrial policies like ‘Made in China 2025.'”

                                  There are two set of tariffs lines. The first set contains 818 lines of the original 1,333 lines announced in April. This set covers around USD 34B of Chinese imports. 25% tariffs will be imposed starting July 6, 2018. The second set contained 284 proposed tariff lines, covering around USD 16B in Chinese goods. This set will undergo further public view before finalizing.

                                  Altogether they’re valued around USD 50B. and focuses on products from industrial sectors that contribute to or benefit from the “Made in China 2025” industrial policy, which include industries such as aerospace, information and communications technology, robotics, industrial machinery, new materials, and automobiles. The list does not include goods commonly purchased by American consumers such as cellular telephones or televisions.

                                  US announced tariffs on USD 50B of Chinese imports, full statement

                                    USTR Issues Tariffs on Chinese Products in Response to Unfair Trade Practices

                                    Washington, DC – The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) today released a list of products imported from China that will be subject to additional tariffs as part of the U.S. response to China’s unfair trade practices related to the forced transfer of American technology and intellectual property.

                                    On May 29, 2018, President Trump stated that USTR shall announce by June 15 the imposition of an additional duty of 25 percent on approximately $50 billion worth of Chinese imports containing industrially significant technologies, including those related to China’s “Made in China 2025” industrial policy.  Today’s action comes after an exhaustive Section 301 investigation in which USTR found that China’s acts, policies and practices related to technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation are unreasonable and discriminatory, and burden U.S. commerce.

                                    “We must take strong defensive actions to protect America’s leadership in technology and innovation against the unprecedented threat posed by China’s theft of our intellectual property, the forced transfer of American technology, and its cyber attacks on our computer networks,” said Ambassador Robert Lighthizer.  “China’s government is aggressively working to undermine America’s high-tech industries and our economic leadership through unfair trade practices and industrial policies like ‘Made in China 2025.’  Technology and innovation are America’s greatest economic assets and President Trump rightfully recognizes that if we want our country to have a prosperous future, we must take a stand now to uphold fair trade and protect American competitiveness.”

                                    The list of products issued today covers 1,102 separate U.S. tariff lines valued at approximately $50 billion in 2018 trade values.  This list was compiled based on extensive interagency analysis and a thorough examination of comments and testimony from interested parties.  It generally focuses on products from industrial sectors that contribute to or benefit from the “Made in China 2025” industrial policy, which include industries such as aerospace, information and communications technology, robotics, industrial machinery, new materials, and automobiles.  The list does not include goods commonly purchased by American consumers such as cellular telephones or televisions.

                                    This list of products consists of two sets of U.S tariff lines.  The first set contains 818 lines of the original 1,333 lines that were included on the proposed list published on April 6.  These lines cover approximately $34 billion worth of imports from China.  USTR has determined to impose an additional duty of 25 percent on these 818 product lines after having sought and received views from the public and advice from the appropriate trade advisory committees.  Customs and Border Protection will begin to collect the additional duties on July 6, 2018.

                                    The second set contains 284 proposed tariff lines identified by the interagency Section 301 Committee as benefiting from Chinese industrial policies, including the “Made in China 2025” industrial policy.  These 284 lines, which cover approximately $16 billion worth of imports from China, will undergo further review in a public notice and comment process, including a public hearing.  After completion of this process, USTR will issue a final determination on the products from this list that would be subject to the additional duties.

                                    USTR recognizes that some U.S. companies may have an interest in importing items from China that are covered by the additional duties. Accordingly, USTR will soon provide an opportunity for the public to request the exclusion of particular products from the additional duties subject to this action.  USTR will issue a notice in the Federal Register with details regarding this process within the next few weeks.

                                     

                                    Background

                                    President Trump announced on March 22, 2018, that USTR shall publish a proposed list of products and any intended tariff increases in order to address the acts, policies, and practices of China that are unreasonable or discriminatory and that burden or restrict U.S. commerce.

                                    These acts, policies and practices of China include those that coerce American companies into transferring their technology and intellectual property to domestic Chinese enterprises.  They bolster China’s stated intention of seizing economic dominance of certain advanced technology sectors as set forth in its industrial plans, such as “Made in China 2025.”  (See USTR Section 301 Report here.)

                                    On April 3, USTR announced a proposed list of 1,333 products that may be subject to an additional duty of 25 percent, and sought comments from interested persons and the appropriate trade advisory committees.

                                    Interested persons filed approximately 3,200 written submissions.  In addition, USTR and the Section 301 Committee convened a three-day public hearing from May 15-17, 2018, during which 121 witnesses provided testimony and responded to questions. The public submissions and a transcript of the hearing are available on www.regulations.gov in docket number USTR-2018-0005.

                                    Click here to view a fact sheet on the Section 301 product list.

                                    Click here to view a fact sheet on the Section 301 investigation.

                                    Chinese foreign ministry warns on immediate action against US unilateralism and protectionism

                                      Below is the transcript of Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang’s reply to question regarding US tariffs during a regular press briefing.

                                      Q: It is reported that US officials said President Trump has decided to approve the value of 50 billion US dollars of Chinese exports to the US goods to levy a 25% tariff, the decision will be formally announced Friday US time. Did the U.S. inform the Chinese side? The Chinese side has repeatedly stated that if the U.S. side introduces trade sanctions including the increase of tariffs, all trade and economic achievements negotiated by the two parties will not take effect. Yesterday, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated that if the United States chooses the idea of ​​confrontation and double lose, China is ready. Do you have any further response to this? What kind of countermeasures will China take?

                                      A: Yesterday, U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo visited China during the visit and exchanged views with China on Sino-U.S. relations and important international and regional issues, including China-US economic and trade issues. Please read carefully the relevant news released by the Chinese side. China’s position on China-U.S. economic and trade issues is very clear in the press release. Here I want to emphasize a few more points:

                                      First, the nature of Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations is mutually beneficial and win-win. We have always advocated that, on the basis of mutual respect, equality, and mutual benefit, we should handle economic and trade issues in a constructive manner through dialogue and consultation, and constantly narrow differences and expand cooperation for the benefit of both. People of the country.

                                      Second, China and the United States maintained communication on economic and trade issues, including China-US economic and trade frictions, and also conducted consultations. In fact, they have made some progress. If you remember, after the Sino-U.S. economic and trade consultations earlier this month, China issued a statement. In the statement, we clearly pointed out that if the U.S. side introduces trade sanctions including the increase of tariffs, all the economic and trade achievements negotiated by the two parties will not take effect.

                                      Thirdly, at the beginning of April this year, spokespersons of the Ministry of Commerce and spokesmen of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs had all made formal responses to some U.S. unilateralist words and deeds. The Chinese position is consistent. Here I would like to reiterate that if the U.S. side adopts unilateralism and protectionism and damages China’s interests, we will respond in the first instance and take necessary measures to firmly safeguard our legitimate rights and interests.

                                      BoJ Kuroda: Deflationary mindset caps medium- and long-term inflation expectations

                                        In the post meeting press conference, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda admitted that ” year-on-year growth in consumer prices is slowing”. Falling durable goods prices and temporary fluctuations in hotel costs were part of the reasons. However, “companies’ price-setting behavior appears to be changing” as they’re passing on rising costs to consumer. Hence, the economy is “sustaining momentum” to achieve the 2% inflation target. Kuroda also said there will be further debate on price moves at the next meeting in July, when the quarter long-term forecasts will also be published.

                                        Kuroda added that “Japan’s economy is seeing labor markets tighten and the output gap improving, but prices aren’t rising much.” There are external factors from US and Europe. At the same time, that’s the deflationary mindset of households and companies, which became entrenched due to 15 years of deflation.” That’s the reason keeping medium- and long-term inflation expectations subdued.

                                        BoJ stands pat as widely expected

                                          BoJ left monetary policy unchanged today as widely expected. Under the yield curve control framework, short term policy rate is held at -0.1%. BoJ will also continue target to keep 10 year JGB yield at around 0%. Annual pace of JGB purchase is kept at around JPY 80T. Goushi Kataoka dissented again in a 8-1 vote. Kataoka pushed to “further strengthen monetary easing” so that “yields on JGBs with maturities of 10 years and longer would broadly be lowered further.”

                                          The description on the economy is largely unchanged. One exception is that CPI is now “in the range of 0.5-1.0%”, comparing to April’s description of moving around 1 percent. On the outlook, BoJ noted that the economy is “likely to continue its moderate expansion.” Domestic demand will follow an uptrend while exports will continue the moderate increasing trend. Risks to the outlook include the following: the U.S. economic policies and their impact on global financial markets; developments in emerging and commodity-exporting economies; negotiations on the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union (EU) and their effects; and geopolitical risks.

                                          Full statement here.