GBP/CHF continues consolidation pattern, targeting 1.104

    GBP/CHF is so far one of the top movers for the week, even though over movements in the markets are rather indecisive. The decline from 1.1543 is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.1574. Deeper fall is expected as long as 1.1265 resistance holds.

    Strong support could be seen around 1.1045 cluster (38.2% retracement of 1.1043) to complete the three-wave pattern. Break of 1.1265 resistance will bring stronger rise back to retest 1.1574. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.1043/5 will be a sign of trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.0714.

    EU continue to negotiate intensively with UK

      European Commission Eric Mamer said in a press conference today, “what is clear is that we continue to negotiate intensively with our UK partners and we aim, obviously, to find a deal when the conditions will be there.” But he added, “we are not going to give a blow-by-blow account of what negotiators are working towards.”

      Regarding the relations with US, Mamer said “It is still very, very early days and therefore at the moment … the EU is waiting for the new president-elect to take office before starting to comment on what this will imply when it comes to our relationship.”

       

      France PMI services finalized at 50.3 in Apr, first expansion in eight months

        France PMI Services was finalized at 50.3 in April, up from march’s 48.2. That’s the first expansion reading in eight months. PMI Composite was finalized at 51.6, up from 50.0 in March, first expansion for eight months too.

        Eliot Kerr, Economist at IHS Markit said: “The key takeaway from the latest release of PMI data is that following a prolonged period of downturn, underlying demand conditions are now beginning to recover as vaccine roll-outs give firms the confidence to look beyond the crisis. That demand has translated into new business and increased activity levels across the service sector as a whole.”

        Full release here.

        Fed Williams: Slowing rate hike is just stepping down one step

          New York Fed President John Williams said yesterday in an interview that slowing the pace of rate hikes in December would simply mean “stepping down one step” in the effort to curb inflation.

          “I still think we have a ways to go in terms of where the fed funds target is and where we need to get it to next year in order to get the sufficiently restrictive stance,” he said.

          “Inflation, first of all, is the number one problem we’re facing in terms of monetary policy. It is far too high,” Williams said. And, bring inflation back to 2% target will “take a good couple of years”.

          But he added: “I expect to see a pretty significant decline in inflation next year as supply chain issues improve, as we see the slowing economy, the economy getting into better balance.”

          UK Leadsom: Brexit plan B will be ready within days if the deal is voted down

            In UK, Andrea Leadsom, the Leader of the House of Commons, said the government will set out its plan B should Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal is voted down next week. She told the Parliament that “the prime minister has shown her willingness to always return to this House at the first possible opportunity if there is anything to report in terms of our Brexit deal and we will continue to do so.”

            Meanwhile, May’s spokesman said she is still working on more assurances from the EU on the Brexit deal, in particular the Irish backstop. May still hope to convince MPs to vote for the agreement on January 15.

            Opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said the party would vote against the deal. And after that it’s voted down, “an election must be the priority. It is not only the most practical option, it is also the most democratic option.” Though, he’s open that “if a general election cannot be secured, then we will keep all options on the table, including the option of campaigning for a public vote.”

            Canada CPI jumped to 2.2% yoy in March, accentuated by base-year effects

              Canada CPI accelerated to 2.2% yoy in March, up from February’s 1.1% yoy, slightly below expectation of 2.3% yoy. CPI common rose to 1.5% yoy, up from 1.3% yoy , above expectation of 1.4% yoy. CPI median rose to 2.1% yoy, up from 2.0% yoy, matched expectations. CPI trimmed rose to 2.2% yoy, up from 1.9% yoy, above expectation of 2.0% yoy.

              StatCan said price growth in March 2021 was “accentuated by what is known as base-year effects, originating in March 2020. “As the upward impact of these temporary base-year effects will influence the 12-month movement over the next few months, the historical movements affecting current growth trends will be examined.”

              Full release here.

              New Zealand business confidence dropped to -65 in Q2

                New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence dropped from -40 to -65 in Q2. A net 65% of firms surveyed expected general business conditions to deteriorate. That’s the weakest level since Q1 2020.

                NZIER said: “For the June quarter, firms saw activity in their own business remaining subdued. Besides the continued uncertainty over the COVID-19 outbreak, businesses are also grappling with the intensification of cost pressures and higher interest rates.”

                Full release here.

                UK Hammond: Rejecting the Brexit deal means more uncertainty for Britain and its people

                  UK Chancellor of Exchequer Philip Hammond warned today “if we don’t pass the meaningful vote on Tuesday we’ll go into a parliamentary process that very likely will lead to an extension of time and an uncertain outcome, more uncertainty for the British economy, more uncertainty for people across the country”.

                  And he urged “it’s very important that my colleagues think about the consequences of not agreeing this deal. This is now the last chance to be confident that we can get this deal done and we can leave the EU on schedule.”

                  The UK parliament is scheduled to have another Brexit deal meaningful vote on March 12. If it’s rejected, there will be a vote on no-deal Brexit on March 13. Then if both are rejected, there will be a vote on Article 50 extension.

                  Japan CPI core slowed to 0.2% yoy in Jan, CPI core core dropped to -1.1% yoy

                    Japan all item CPI slowed from 0.8% yoy to 0.5% yoy in January, below expectation of 0.6% yoy. CPI core (all item less fresh food) dropped from 0.5% yoy to 0.2% yoy, below expectation of 0.3% yoy. CPI core-core (all item less fresh food and energy), dropped from -0.7% yoy to -1.1% yoy, below expectation of -0.7% yoy.

                    Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said recent prices rises were “driven mostly by increases in energy costs”, though forex moves also has had some impact. He added, “if inflation rises before improvement in job market, wage hikes kick in, that could affect consumption.”

                    US stocks extended historic rebound, but no follow through in Asia, Yen pares loss

                      After initial weakness, US indices reversed and resumed the post Christmas historic rebound. DOW ended up 260pts or 1.14% at 23138.82. S&P 500 rose 0.86% while NASDAQ gained 0.38%. Asian markets are mixed though. At the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.47%, Hong Kong HSI is up 0.10%, China Shanghai SSE is up 0.38% and Singapore Strait Times is up 0.74%.

                      In the currency markets, Dollar and Canadian are the weakest ones for today so far. Yen is trading to pare back some of yesterday’s losses and is the strongest one for the moment.

                      For the week, Canadian Dollar is overwhelmingly the weakest one. Dollar, Aussie and Kiwi are also among the weakest. On the other hand, Swiss Franc and Euro are the strongest, followed by Yen.

                      The key for DOW will lie in the resistance zone between 100% projection of 21712.52 to 22877.09 from 22267.42 at 23431.98, and 38.2% retracement of 26951.81 to 21712.53 at 23713.93. Failure to break through this zone decisively will keep the rebound rebound 21712.53, corrective in nature, and a relatively short one.

                      UK PMI manufacturing finalized at 44.3, still mired in contraction

                        UK PMI Manufacturing experienced a slight uptick, finalized 44.3 in September from the previous month’s 39-month low of 43.0. However, despite this marginal improvement, an in-depth examination of the five sub-indices of the PMI – new orders, output, employment, stocks of purchases, and supplier delivery times – revealed a consistent downturn in the sector’s performance.

                        Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, portrayed a challenging scene for the UK’s manufacturing industry. “September saw the manufacturing sector still mired in contraction territory,” he noted. This is attributed to weakened conditions both domestically and internationally that have negatively impacted new order intakes, leading to reduced production volumes.

                        One of the significant factors exacerbating the situation is the ongoing cost-of-living crisis in the UK. A rapid increase in interest rates is further pressuring the manufacturing sector. Producers have explicitly linked these developments to the troubles they are encountering.

                        Full UK PMI Manufacturing release here.

                        BoJ Kuroda pledges again to take additional easing if risks heigten

                          BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda remained optimistic that inflation, at around 0.5% currently, would accelerate toward the 2% target. Though, he reiterated again that “we will adjust policy as necessary to maintain momentum toward our price stability target while examining risks.”

                          And, “we will not hesitate to take additional easing steps if risks heighten to an extent that the momentum toward the price target is undermined.”

                          Stop Brexit petition breaks 1M, Leadsom said there’s case to act if it breaks 17.4m

                            A petition calling for UK government to revoke Article 50 Brexit request and stay in the EU gains traction today. At the time of writing, it has already collected more than 1M signatures. According to the Parliament website, would consider the petition for debate if it surpassed 100,000 signatures.

                            House of Commons Leader Andrea Leadsom said earlier that “should it reach more than 17.4 million respondents then I’m sure there would be a very clear case for taking action”.

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                            US to re-initiate trade talk with China before new tariffs, Aussie and DOW surge

                              The WSJ reported that the US is proposing new round of trade talk with China. That could happen in the near future before Trump imposes the new round of 25% tariffs on USD 200B in Chinese goods. It’s reported that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin sent an invitation to Chinese officials, proposing a meeting in the next few weeks to discuss trade issues, citing unnamed sources.

                              The proposal could be resulted from public hearing ended last week. Or, it could also be in response to outcries from American businesses.

                              As we noted here, over 60 US industry groups formed a coalition “Americans for Free Trade” to launch a campaign against Trump’s tariffs and trade policies.

                              The news boosts Australian and New Zealand Dollar sharply higher. Meanwhile, Dollar clearly suffers.

                              Meanwhile, DOW is also surging around 170 pts , taking recent high at 26167.74.

                              US consumer confidence dropped to 135.7, remains at historically strong levels

                                US Conference Board Consumer Confidence dropped to 135.7 in November, down from 137.9, missed expectation of 136.0.

                                In the release, it’s noted that

                                • “Despite a small decline in November, Consumer Confidence remains at historically strong levels.”
                                • “Consumers’ assessment of current conditions increased slightly, with job growth the main driver of improvement.
                                • Expectations, on the other hand, weakened somewhat in November, primarily due to a less optimistic view of future business conditions and personal income prospects.
                                • Overall, consumers are still quite confident that economic growth will continue at a solid pace into early 2019.
                                • However, if expectations soften further in the coming months, the pace of growth is likely to begin moderating.”

                                Full release here.

                                BoJ Kuroda doesn’t rule out deeper negative interest rate

                                  In a Nikkei interview, BoJ Governor Harukiho Kuroda maintained his optimistic view on the economy. He noted that “we’re maintaining momentum toward the price stability target” of 2% inflation”. Also, “domestic demand — consumer spending and capital investment — are relatively firm.” However, “caution is needed” due to overseas uncertainties, in particular with trade war. Cutting interest rates “further into the negative zone is always an option” if more monetary stimulus is needed.

                                  BoJ has laid out the four policy options in case of a downturn. Those include cutting the short-term policy rate, lowering its target for long-term rates, stepping up asset purchases and accelerating expansion of the monetary base. Kuroda said “we’re considering a variety of possibilities, including combinations of these and improved versions.”

                                  Released from Japan, overall household spending rose 0.8% yoy in July, below expectation of 0.9% yoy. Labor cash earnings dropped -0.3% yoy, below expectation of 0.1% yoy. Leading indicator rose 0.3 to 93.6, above expectation of 93.2.

                                  Eurozone PMI composite finalized at 54.2, still consistent with 0.5% quarterly GDP growth

                                    Eurozone PMI Services was finalized at 54.6 in October, down from September’s 56.4. PMI Composite was finalized at 54.2, down from September’s 56.2. Looking at some member states, Ireland PMI composite rose to 2-month high at 62.5. Spain dropped to 6-month low at 56.2. France dropped to 6-month low at 54.7. Italy dropped to 6-month low at 54.2. Germany dropped to 8-month low at 52.0.

                                    Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

                                    “Eurozone growth has slowed sharply at the start of the fourth quarter, with manufacturing hamstrung by supply constraints and services losing momentum as the rebound from lockdowns fades.

                                    “Despite the slowdown, the rate of expansion remains consistent with quarterly GDP growth of 0.5%, but there’s a worrying lack of clarity on the direction of travel in coming months.

                                    “With supply shortages getting worse rather than better in October, manufacturing growth is likely to remain subdued for some time to come. That would leave the economy reliant on the service sector to drive growth, and there are already signs that rising virus case numbers are dampening activity in many service sector businesses, notably – but by no means exclusively – in Germany.

                                    “Ongoing supply shortages meanwhile suggest that high price pressures will persist into next year, but as yet there are no signs of persistent strong wage growth, which would be the bigger concern for the longer-term inflation outlook.”

                                    Full release here.

                                    BoE’s Ramsden signals extended period of restrictive monetary policy ahead

                                      BoE’s Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden emphasized the need for a prolonged phase of restrictive monetary policy to achieve the central bank’s inflation target. Speaking on the future direction of the BoE’s approach, Ramsden stated, “Monetary policy is likely to need to be restrictive for an extended period of time.”

                                      Ramsden further elaborated on the Monetary Policy Committee’s stance, noting, “The MPC have communicated that monetary policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term.”

                                      Additionally, Ramsden, who oversees BoE’s quantitative tightening program, discussed the uncertainty surrounding the optimal size of the central bank’s balance sheet. The ongoing assessment of the necessary reserves supply aims to meet both monetary policy objectives and ensure financial stability.

                                      “We continue to work towards assessing what our future steady state reserves supply looks like, both to meet our monetary policy objectives through quantitative tightening, while ensuring our financial stability objective is also supported,” he explained.

                                      Yuan rebounds on suspected intervention, Shanghai SSE regains 2800

                                        The onshore USD/CNY breached 6.81 earlier today as selling in Yuan continued. But on suspected intervention by state owned banks, USD/CNY quickly dropped through 6.8 handle and it’s now back at 6.78.

                                        The offshore USD/CNH also followed and dropped through 6.8 too.

                                        The news and the development helped lifted the Shanghai SSE composite back into positive territory. It’s now trading above 2% and is back above 2800. It’s also helped lifted Hong Kong HSI by more than 400 pts back above 28200.

                                        BoJ Kuroda: Economy to continue to recover despite rising commodity prices

                                          BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said in the quarterly branch manager meeting, “Japan’s economy has picked up as a trend, although some weakness has been seen in part, mainly due to the impact of COVID-19.”

                                          “As downward pressure on service consumption and the impact of supply shortages diminish, a pickup in overseas demand, accommodative monetary policy, and the government’s economic stimulus will likely help the Japanese economy recover despite being affected by rising commodity prices,” he added.

                                          Kuroda also cautioned that “extremely high uncertainties” remain over how the crisis in Ukraine will impact commodity prices and the Japanese economy. But he also indicated that commodity inflation is unlikely to trigger a change in the central bank’s ultra-loose policy, because it wouldn’t last long.