White House confronts Canada for retaliation tariffs

    White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders issued fresh confrontation to Canada as the latter retaliation tariffs on US steel tariffs took effect. Sanders said in a media briefing that “escalating tariffs against the United States does nothing to help Canada. It only hurts American workers.” Sanders added that “we’ve been very nice to Canada for many years, and they’ve taken advantage of that – particularly advantage of our farmers.” And, “the president is working to fix the broken system, and he’s going to continue pushing for that.”

    Canada officially slapped tariffs on more than USD 12B of US goods effective on July 1. A range of products were targeted including steel and aluminum, coffee, pizza, condiments, whiskers etc. Chrystia Freeland, Canada’s minister of foreign affairs said that “we will not escalate, and we will not back down.”

    Trump holds WTO hostage to request for improvements

      While meeting with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte in Washington, US President Donald Trump issued fresh warning to the WTO. When asked is he’s preparing to pull out of the WTO, Trump said it has treated the US “very, very badly and I hope they change their ways”. He added that the US has a “a big disadvantage with the WTO. And we’re not planning anything now, but if they don’t treat us properly, we’ll be doing something,” That came after earlier report Axios, based on unnamed source, that Trump has completed to his officials “I don’t know why we’re in it. The WTO is designed by the rest of the world to screw the United States.”

      In an CNBC interview, Tony Fratto, deputy press secretary under President George W. Bush, blasted the idea of leaving WTO. He said, “to say that the United States is a loser in a WTO world is just completely inaccurate. We created the WTO as the dominant economy in the world to serve our interests.” While improvements are needed, there are better ways than “to hold it hostage and to threaten to pull out of it.” And He added that pulling out of WTO is a “ridiculous idea”.

      On the other hand, former Trump advisor Dan DiMicco also told CNBC that “If the WTO can’t be any more effective than it has been the last 20 years … then the WTO is not helping the world trading system, it’s hurting it, and we should be prepared to walk away.”

      US ISM manufacturing rose to 60.2 despite trade war threat

        US ISM manufacturing index rose to 60.2 in June, up from 58.7 and beat expectation of 57.9. Prices paid component dropped to 76.8, down from 79.5 and missed expectation of 78.2. Employment component dropped to 56.0, down from 56.3.

        Some quotes from the respondents:

        • “U.S. tariff policy and lack of predictability, along with [the] threat of trade wars, [is a] causing general business instability and [is] drag on growth for investments.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
        • “We export to more than 100 countries. We are preparing to shift some customer responsibilities among manufacturing plants and business units due to trade issues (for example, we’ll shift production for China market from the U.S. to our Canadian plant to avoid higher tariffs). Within our company, there is a sense of uncertainty due to potential trade wars.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
        • “The Section 232 steel tariffs are now impacting domestic steel prices and capacity. Base steel prices have already increased 20 percent since March.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
        • “The economy and product demand still continue to be strong. Having trouble finding people [to fill] blue collar positions. Lead times for parts and materials are moving out, and we are seeing commodity cost pressures increases with the threat of tariffs. Additionally, suppliers are asking for more price increases.” (Machinery)
        • “The uncertainty of U.S. tariffs and the Canada/Mexico/E.U. retaliatory tariffs continues to cloud strategic planning efforts. Contingency planning (for tariffs) is consuming large amounts of manpower that could be used for more productive projects. The tariffs are improving margins in our raw material businesses; however, our businesses which are further up the supply chain are seeing significant inflation.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
        • “The steel tariffs continue to drive uncertainty. Projects and services using steel have limited days that prices are good for. Trucking is tight, requiring advanced planning and increasing costs.” (Paper Products)

        Full ISM manufacturing index release here.

        US Chamber of Commerce launches “Trade Works. Tariffs Don’t” campaign

          Follow up on an earlier post, the US Chamber of Commerce launches a campaign today titled “Trade Works. Tariffs Don’t” . It warns that “the administration’s new tariffs threaten to spark a global trade war.”

          Such tariffs prompted retaliations with dollars in billions of dollars in tariffs on American-made products. And it criticized that tariffs by the US are ” nothing more than a tax increase on American consumers and businesses–including manufacturers, farmers, and technology companies”. Retaliation by other countries will “make American-made goods more expensive, resulting in lost sales and ultimately lost jobs here at home.”

          It emphasized that this is the wrong approach, and it threatens to derail our nation’s recent economic resurgence.

          This is the link to an interactive map that shows the impacts state by state.

          The chamber also urged Americans to “Send a Message to Congress” to voice out objections against the tariffs.

          EU comments on US auto tariffs investigations full statement

            Earlier today, Politico reported EU’s comments on US section 232 cars investigation submitted to US Department of Commerce last Friday. Below is the full statement from European Commission. Also, EU requested to participate in public hearing on July 19/20.

            EU comments on US section 232 Cars investigation

            The European Union has on Friday 29 June submitted written comments to the US Department of Commerce in the framework of the on-going Section 232 National Security Investigation of imports of automobiles, including cars, SUVs, vans, light trucks and automotive parts.

            The EU has also requested to participate in the public hearing to be held by the Department of Commerce scheduled for 19 and 20 July.

            The EU takes the view, as was the case of the section 232 steel and aluminium tariffs, that this current investigation lacks legitimacy, factual basis and violates international trade rules. The EU reiterates its firm opposition to the proliferation of measures taken on supposed national security grounds for the purposes of economic protection. This development harms trade, growth and jobs in the US and abroad, weakens the bonds with friends and allies, and shifts the attention away from the shared strategic challenges that genuinely threaten the market-based Western economic model.

            The EU written comments relate to various areas on which input was requested by the US Department of Commerce to conduct its current investigation. The EU submits that:

            1. Imports of European automobiles in the US are stable, in line with US production and responding to market signals. Automobile imports from the EU do not threaten or impair the health of the US industry and economy. The EU and US industry specialise in largely different market segments and over the last 5 years imports from the EU have been stable and correlated to US general GDP growth.

            2. There is no economic threat to the US automobile industry which is healthy, having steadily expanded domestic production in the last 10 years. Imposing restrictive measures would undermine the current positive trends of the US automobile and automotive parts sector and negatively impact US GDP by up to 13-14 billion USD.

            3. EU car companies contribute significantly to US welfare and employment. They are well integrated in the US value chain and export about 60 % of automobiles to third countries including the EU, contributing to improving the US trade balance. They provide 120,000 direct upstream jobs in manufacturing plants and 420,000 jobs with dealers. Trade restrictions are likely to lead to higher input costs for US based producers, thus in effect a tax on the American people.

            4. EU car companies foster innovation through research and develop the local workforce. Rather than posing a threat to national security, they are a driver for securing long-term economic stability and competitiveness. Almost a fifth of research and development expenditures in the US is derived from foreign-owned subsidiaries. The EU automotive industry also actively contributes to enhancing the skillsets of the US workforce.

            5. The impact on the US economy will be aggravated significantly by the likely countermeasures of US Trading partners, as evidenced by the reaction to the US section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminium. On the basis of the current section 232 investigation into automobile and automotive parts, US trade restrictive measures could result in a very significant volume of US exports affected, estimated at USD 294 billion (or around 19 % of US total exports in 2017).

            6. Trade restrictive measures would be contrary to international trade rules. There are no exceptions under the General Agreement on Tariff and Trade (GATT) that justify import restrictions by a developed country to protect a domestic industry against foreign competition, unless in the form of permitted trade remedy measures. Although the General Agreement on Tariff and Trade (GATT) provides for security exceptions, the scope of these exceptions has been circumscribed carefully for specific situations and conditions, which are absent in this case.

            7. There is no national security threat from imports of automobile and automotive parts. Without prejudice, we underline that the Department of Commerce’s analysis of national security must be narrowly tailored to focus on direct threats to national security, in particular defense applications. US needs for vehicles or vehicle parts for defence or military purposes, mainly Light Tactical Vehicles, appear to be covered by US-based specialised suppliers. These operate in a niche market that is independent and unrelated to the US automobile industry. As only products from US based manufacturers are used by the US military, any trade restrictions imposed on the passenger car, light trucks and car parts market cannot be justified on national security grounds.

            US Chamber of Commerce to campaign against Trump’s trade tariffs policies

              Reuters reported that the US Chamber of Commerce is launching a campaign today to attack Trump’s protectionist trade policy. It’s believed that state-by-state analysis would be used for the campaign and it will warn that Americans that Trump is risking a global trade war that will eventually hit their pockets.

              Chamber President Tom Donohue was quoted saying that “the administration is threatening to undermine the economic progress it worked so hard to achieve.” And he added that “we should seek free and fair trade, but this is just not the way to do it.”

              Being the largest business group in the US with 3 million members, the Chamber also have long history of being friendly with Republicans. Their stance carries some political significance.

              Into US session: Dollar and Yen strong as trade risks weigh down global stocks

                Heading into US session, Dollar continues to lead the way higher, followed by Yen. Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar are taking turns to be the weakest. But Canadian Dollar is supported by resilience in oil price, as WIT regains 74 handle.

                Risk aversion is back in the market, started from Asia where China’s SSE dropped -2.52%, leading others lower. Nikkei also lost -2.21%. European indices followed and open sharply lower initially. German DAX dipped to as low as 12132.72 but is now back at 12270, just down -0.3%. FTSE, on the other hand, is down -1%, pressing 7550. CAC is also down -0.85%.

                Based on the actions in DAX, German Chancellor Angel Merkel’s problem with her own coalition seems to be not too bothered by the market. Instead, it’s likely the worries on trade war that’s weighing down on sentiments. In particular, Europeans could be feeling quite upset as Trump said the EU is “as bad as China, just smaller”.

                UK PMI manufacturing rose to 54.4, revival remains in some doubt

                  UK PMI manufacturing rose 0.1 to 54.4 in June, above expectation of 53.5. Markit noted that output growth slowed from May’s give month high. Meanwhile, input cost inflation picked up, leading to increased selling prices.

                  Rob Dobson, Director at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey:

                  “The UK manufacturing sector ended the second quarter on a subdued footing. The turnaround in performance since the start the year has been remarkable, with impressive growth rates late last year turning into some of the weakest rates of expansion seen over the past two years in recent months.

                  “The slowdown in new order growth since earlier in the year has also left manufacturers increasingly reliant on backlogs of work and inventory building to maintain higher output. This is a position that cannot be sustained far beyond the immediate horizon. The trend in demand will need to stage a much firmer rebound if a further slowdown in output growth is to be avoided.

                  “How likely such a revival is remains in some doubt, with the June survey also seeing business optimism drop to a seven-month low amid rising concerns about possible trade tariffs, the exchange rate and Brexit uncertainty. Ongoing supply-chain disruptions, including raw material shortages, and signs of a renewed upswing in input price inflation may also jeopardise stronger manufacturing growth. With industry potentially stuck in the doldrums, the UK economy will need to look to other sectors if GDP growth is to match expectations in the latter half of the year.”

                  Full UK PMI Manufacturing release.

                  Eurozone PMI manufacturing hit 18-month low, mounting worries on tariffs and trade wars

                    Eurozone PMI manufacturing was finalized at 54.9, revised down from 55.0. That’s also an 18-month low. Markit noted that growth of output and new orders slowed further as upturn in new export business remains subdued. Also, supply chain pressure and rising oil prices took input cost inflation to four-month high.

                    Among the countries, the Netherlands stayed strong at 60.1 even hitting 6-month low. Ireland hit 5-month high at 56.6. Italy rebounded and hit 2-month high at 53.3. France deteriorated to 16-month low at 52.5.

                    Commenting on the final Manufacturing PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

                    “Eurozone manufacturing reported its weakest expansion for one-and-a-half years in June, with risks clearly tilted towards output growth waning further in coming months.

                    “Production growth has weakened markedly since the end of last year, and new order inflows have slowed even more. Manufacturers may therefore need to rein-in their production further to adjust to the recent downturn in order book growth unless demand revives.

                    “The biggest concern is the extent to which export order book growth has cooled since the start of the year, and could soon go into decline. The survey reveals mounting worries from companies relating to the impact of tariffs and trade wars, suggesting firms are bracing themselves for the potential for further export losses. Not surprisingly, business expectations for future production deteriorated in June to the lowest November 2015.

                    “At the same time there are signs that political uncertainty is also dampening business spirits, most evidently in Italy, which was consequently the second-worst performer of all countries surveyed in June ahead of France.”

                    Full Eurozone PMI Manufacturing release.

                    Germany PMI manufacturing finalized at 55.9, pace of growth shifted down another gear,

                      Germany PMI manufacturing was finalized at 55.9 in June, unrevised. Markit noted that new orders exhibited slowest rise in over two years. Optimism towards future output also dipped to lowest for more than three years. But there was pick-up in rate of job creation.

                      Commenting on the final IHS Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI® survey data, Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit said:

                      “The rate of growth of Germany’s manufacturing sector has consistently slowed throughout the first half of 2018, with June’s final headline PMI reading the lowest seen for one-and-a-half years.

                      “The question is whether there is worse still to come. Order book growth has consistently been below that of output in recent months, and in June the gap widened as the former slowed to the weakest seen for over two years, suggesting some underlying downward pressure on output levels. Firms have indeed become less optimistic in their expectations towards output, with tariffs seen as an added headwind to growth in the months ahead.

                      “The sector’s overall pace of growth may have shifted down another gear, but that hasn’t stopped manufacturers from creating more and more jobs, with a pick-up in the rate of employment growth the one bright spot from June’s survey. A strengthening domestic market will go some way towards offsetting the loss of exports.”

                      Full Germany PMI manufacturing release.

                      France PMI manufacturing revised down to 52.3, slower momentum, higher costs

                        France PMI manufacturing was revised lower to 52.3, down from 53.1, in June. Markit noted slower rates of output and new business growth in France. Though, pace of job creation was resilient. Input cost inflation also reached four-month high.

                        Tim Moore, Associate Director at IHS Markit, which compiles the France Manufacturing PMI® survey, said:

                        “June data revealed that manufacturing growth continued to lose momentum in France, with overall business conditions improving at the slowest pace for almost a year-and-a-half. It seems that the source of the slowdown in production growth has shifted from capacity constraints and supply chain bottlenecks to a general soft patch for new order books. Export sales increased only marginally in June, which contributed to the weakest upturn in total new work since the autumn of 2016.

                        “Most worryingly, the latest slowdown in new business growth was accompanied by a sharp and accelerated rise in manufacturing input costs. Survey respondents widely commented on increased prices for steel and aluminium. Operating margins remained under pressure, although the rate of output price inflation picked up from the eight-month low seen in May.”

                        Full France PMI Manfacturing release.

                        Italy PMI manufacturing rose to 53.3, arrested recent growth slide

                          Italy manufacturing PMI rose to 53.3 in June, up from 52.7 and beat expectation of 52.6. Markit noted there are pick-ups in both output and new order book gains. Meanwhile, input costs rise on back of higher steel prices. Jobs also added again but business confidence dropped to lowest in over five years.

                          Paul Smith, Economics Director at IHS Markit which compiles the Italy Manufacturing PMI® survey, said:

                          “Italy’s manufacturing sector arrested its recent growth slide during June, registering faster upturns in both output and new orders.

                          “The improvements in growth to broad trend rates will raise hopes that the sector will now settle into a steady expansionary rate following the sharp slowdown in sector performance seen since the start of the year.

                          “Whilst manufacturers seem confident enough that growth will be sustained, with jobs continuing to be added at a decent clip in June, downside risks persist. Optimism in the outlook has deteriorated to its lowest in over five years and cost pressures are mounting, with steel prices especially reported to have risen during June.”

                          Full Italy PMI Manufacturing release.

                          IMF: USD share of global reserves hit 4-year low in Q1

                            According to latest released IMF Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves data, total global foreign exchange reserves rose 6.3% yoy, or by USD 878B, to USD 11.59T in Q1.

                            Reserves held in USD rose to USD 6.499T, 62.48% of total allocated reserves. That compared to 62.72% back in Q4 2017, and hit a fresh four year low.

                            Reserves held in EUR rose to USD 2.121T, 20.39% of total, up from Q4’s 20.15%, hitting the highest since 2014.

                            Reserves held in RMB rose to USD 0.145T, 1.39%, of total, up for a third straight quarter.

                            Trump said EU is as bad as China, just smaller

                              Trump continued his attack on the EU as hie told Fox News on Sunday that “The EU is possibly as bad as China, just smaller, okay. It’s terrible what they do to us.” He added that “take a look at the car situation, they send their Mercedes in, we can’t send our cars in. And, “look what they do to our farmers, they don’t want our farm products. In all fairness they have their farmers so they want to protect their farmers. But we don’t protect ours and they protect theirs.”

                              He also noted that “they made, last year, $151bn in trade surplus. We had a deficit with the EU.” And, “on top of that, we spend a fortune on NATO to protect them.” Trump also confirmed he will sanction European companies if they do business with Iran, in spite of requests for exemption from EU.

                              Separately, US ambassador to Estonia James D. Melville Jr. said in his own private facebook post that he’s retiring earlier due to Trump’s behavior and comments. That came less that two weeks ahead of NATO summit in Brussels on July 11, 12.

                              Melville wrote in the post that “A Foreign Service Officer’s DNA is programmed to support policy and we’re schooled right from the start, that if there ever comes a point where one can no longer do so, particularly if one is in a position of leadership, the honorable course is to resign. Having served under six presidents and 11 secretaries of state, I never really thought it would reach that point for me.”

                              And, “For the President to say the EU was ‘set up to take advantage of the United States, to attack our piggy bank,’ or that ‘NATO is as bad as NAFTA’ is not only factually wrong, but proves to me that it’s time to go.”

                              EU warned auto tariffs could cost USD13-14B in US GDP

                                According to a report by POLITICO, European Commission sent a 11-page document to the US Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security on Friday. It warned that tariffs on European cars will be “harmful first and foremost for the US economy.” And, the impact of such tariffs on US GDP would be “in the order of 13-14 billion USD.” Additionally, the “current account balance of the US would be not affected positively.”

                                The document also pointed out that European carmakers contributed to production of 2.9m cars in 2017, around 26% of US production. And, production of EU-owned American car companies amounts to 16% of national production, or 1.8m vehicles. In addition to that, “EU companies based in the US export a significant part of their production, thus contributing substantially to improving the US trade balance, which is a priority of the administration.”

                                Also, “around 60 percent of automobiles produced in the US by companies with exclusive EU ownership are exported to third countries, including the EU. Measures harming these companies would be self-defeating and would weaken the US economy.”

                                New Zealand Treasury: Consumption and business confidence pose downside risks to growth

                                  New Zealand Treasury’s Monthly Economic Data report noted that the 0.5% real GDP growth in Q1 was below the forecast set in the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU). Terms of trade fell by -6.7% due to  a slight fall in export prices and an increase in import prices, contributing to -0.4% decline in nominal GDP.

                                  Consumption indicators were soft. Business confidence deteriorated further in June, hitting post-election lows. Combined they suggest “there is a little less momentum in the economy and poses some downside risk to our BEFU GDP forecast in the near-term.”

                                  The report also warned that “risks around trade continue to escalate with tariffs affecting a range of trade between the US and China, and a growing number of other countries.”

                                  Full report here.

                                  Japan PMI manufacturing revised down to 53.0

                                    Japan PMI manufacturing was finalized at 53.0 in June, revised down from 53.1.

                                    Quote from Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit:

                                    “Japan manufacturing PMI data continue to signal that the sector’s current expansion phase still has legs. Output growth edged up in June, supported by further inflows of new work and an accelerated rate of employment growth.

                                    “Concerns do remain however, as new order growth eased to a ten-month low and export sales decreased for the first time since August 2016. Moreover, with input price inflation jumping to a three-and-a-half year high, manufacturers may be forced to absorb higher cost burdens in order to remain competitive, particularly if the yen faces further safe haven demand.”

                                    Full release here.

                                    Japan Tankan: Large manufacturing sentiments deteriorated for another quarter

                                      The BoJ’s quarterly Tankan survey showed notable worsening in manufacturer’s sentiments in Q2.

                                      The Larger Manufacturing Index dropped to 21, down from 24 and missed expectation of 23. It’s also a second straight quarterly decline from Q4’s 26, the first time since 2012. Large Manufacturer outlook rose to 21, up from 20.

                                      Large Non-Manufacturing index rose to 24, up from 23, beat expectation of 23. Large Non-Manufacturing Outlook rose to 21, up from 20 but missed expectation of 22.

                                      Large all industry capex rose 13.6%, beat expectation of 0.2%.

                                      China Caxin PMI manufacturing dropped to 51.0, deteriorating exports and weak employment

                                        China Caxin PMI manufacturing dropped 0.1 to 51.0 in June, met expectations. Caixin noted in the release that “productions expands as faster pace … despite softer rise in total new orders and further decline in export sales”. And, “staffing levels fall at quickest rate for nearly a year.”

                                        Quote from the release by Dr. Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group:

                                        “The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI stood at 51.0 in June, dropping slightly from a month earlier but remaining in expansion territory. The output index continued to rise, suggesting that manufacturing supply was relatively strong. The new order index dropped marginally, and the employment index dropped for the second consecutive month, indicating worsening layoffs. The index for new export orders fell to a low for the year so far and remained in contraction territory, pointing to a grim export situation amid escalating trade disputes between China and the U.S., which led to weak demand across the manufacturing sector.

                                        “The indices for output charges and input prices both rose, with the latter jumping sharply, continuing to drive the output index upward and suggesting that the year-on-year growth of the producer price index probably continued to rise significantly in June. Corporate profits could have been squeezed due to the rapid rise in input prices, leading to a dip in the future output index. The two indices measuring stocks of finished goods and purchases both dropped, with the latter falling into contraction territory for the first time this year, reflecting that the manufacturing sector is stepping into a destocking phase amid weak demand. The suppliers’ delivery times index remained in contraction territory, indicating delivery delays and poor capital turnover among manufacturing suppliers.

                                        “Overall, the manufacturing PMI survey pointed to strengthening price pressures in June. Deteriorating exports and weak employment, along with companies’ destocking and poor capital turnover, put pressure on the manufacturing sector.”

                                        Full release here.

                                        Released over the weekend, the official China PMI manufacturing dropped -0.4 to 51.5 in June. Official PMI non-manufacturing rose 0.1 to 55.0.

                                        US Treasury Mnuchin said it’s fake news about Trump push for WTO exit

                                          US Treasury Steven Mnuchin calls the report about Trump wants to exit WTO “fake news” and an “exaggeration.”

                                          Mnuchin added that “the president has been clear, with us and with others, he has concerns about the WTO, he thinks there’s aspects of it that are not fair, he thinks that China and others have used it to their own advantage, but we are focused on free trade. That’s what we’re focused on – breaking down barriers.”

                                          Earlier today, Axios reported, quoting unnamed source” that Trump also said “I don’t know why we’re in it. The WTO is designed by the rest of the world to screw the United States.” The reported added that “sources with knowledge of the situation say the Trump administration will continue to call attention to various ways in which the U.S. encounters what some Trump advisers perceive is unfair and unbalanced treatment within framework of the WTO.”