China said to cut import tariffs again in October

    Following up on Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s pledge to further reduce tariffs on Wednesday, it’s reported that China is planning to cut average tariff rates on goods from the majority of its trading partners as soon as next month. Around 1500 consumer products lines could be included in the list. It is a follow up move to a similar tariff cut back in July on a number of consumer goods. So far, there is no official comments from the Ministry of Finance regarding the topic.

    The act is seen as a tactic in the trade war with US that achieve multiple purposes. Firstly, domestic consumptions can be boosted. Secondly, it can should to the world that China is working on opening its markets and it’s consistent with its own claim of advocating free trade. Thirdly, it’s unsure how the cut in tariffs affect US goods as the so-called most favored nation rate also applies. But the act will certainly give extra incentive for Chinese consumers to buy more non-US products.

    BoJ Kuroda laid out options for additional easing if necessary

      In the post meeting press conference, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda warned of downside risks to the economy “particularly via overseas economic developments”. He added, “if trade frictions persist, that could have a broad impact on Japanese and overseas economies.” Nevertheless, he also pointed to tankan survey and BoJ’s internal hearings, and noted “trade frictions on Japan’s economy is limited for now”. There is so far no change in the view that the economy is “expanding moderately”. Also, ” momentum for achieving our price target is sustained.”

      Kuroda also sounded open to more easing and noted “If we think doing so would be necessary to sustain the momentum for achieving our price target, we will ease monetary policy further as appropriate.” The options for additional easing include cutting the short-term interest rate target, lowering the long-term yield target, ramping up asset buying and accelerating the pace of increase in base money.

      New Zealand BusinessNZ PMI rose to 49.6, relatively decent in context of global ructions

        New Zealand BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index rose 0.4 to 49.6 in January, staying in contraction region. BNZ Senior Economist, Craig Ebert said that “in the context of the latest global ructions – this time related to the COVID-19 virus – January’s PMI could arguably be read as a relatively decent outcome. At the same time, it is surely too early for the PMI to capture the economic consequences of the virus”.

        Full release here.

        ECB’s Knot: Wage growth a missing piece in cooling inflation to target

          ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot expressed confidence in inflation reverting to 2% target in 2025, but pointed out a crucial element that remains uncertain: the alignment of wage growth with this lower inflation expectation.

          In an interview with the Dutch TV program Buitenhof on Sunday, Knot noted he “credible prospect” of it returning to the 2% target in 2025. However, “the only piece that’s missing is the conviction that wage growth will adapt to that lower inflation”.

          Knot highlighted the current disparity between wage growth, at 5%, and the desirable rate of around 2.5% for sustainable price stability. He stressed that a gradual shift to this lower wage growth rate is essential for ECB to consider lowering interest rates.

          He also anticipated “a couple of years” where wage growth may exceed inflation, “allowing a restoration of purchasing power,” However, he assured that this scenario would not hinder the trajectory towards the 2% inflation target.

          Nevertheless, he suggested that this scenario wouldn’t necessarily impede the achievement of 2% inflation target. He argued that there’s sufficient leeway in profit margins to accommodate these higher salaries without triggering a significant secondary surge in prices. However, Knot cautioned that this is a “narrow path,” requiring careful navigation.

          Villeroy: ECB ready to accept inflation above 2% for some time

            ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau emphasized that the central bank “has frequently re-affirmed its commitment to symmetry” of its inflation target. As a result, “we might be ready to accept inflation higher than 2% for some time.” Still, “we should examine whether the current formulation casts doubt on this.”

            Villeroy also dismissed chatter that it’s running out of ammunition. “If needed, the ECB has ample room for maneuver,” he said. “Have no doubt about our determination to act as much as needed, and about our capacity to act.”

            Eurozone Sentix investor confidence rose to 21.0, but there are increasing signs of being overstimulated

              Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence rose sharply to 21.0 in May, up from 13.1, well above expectation of 14.0. That’s also the highest level since March 2018. Current situation index turned positive from -6.5 to 6.3, highest since May 2019. Expectations index rose from 34.8 to 36.8, hitting another record high.

              Sentix said: ‘This is very unusual and underlines that the very expansive monetary and fiscal policy that has been in place for a year has not failed to have an effect on the real economy.” Though it also warned, “there are increasing signs that the economy is being overstimulated. This is evident in individual sectors that report shortages of materials. However, the strong global economy is having an even stronger impact on commodity prices and thus on inflation.”

              Germany overall index rose from 20.0 to 26.1, highest since March 2018. Current situation index rose form 4.5 to 15.3, highest since May 2019. Expectations rose from 36.8 to 37.5, record high.

              Full release here.

              Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 22-mth low at 52.1, increasing likelihood of manufacturing recession

                Eurozone PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 52.1 in June, down from April’s 54.6. That’s also the lowest level in 22 months. Readings of the member states were also weak, with the Netherlands at 19-month low of 55.9, Ireland at 16-month low at 53.1, Spain at 17-month low at 52.6, Germany at 23-month low at 52.0, France at 18-month low at 51.4, Austria at 22-month low at 51.2, Greece at 16-month low at 51.1, Italy at 24-month low at 50.9.

                Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “Eurozone manufacturing has moved into decline in June, with production dropping for the first time for two years amid a steepening downturn in demand…. The downturn looks set to gain momentum in coming months…. One upside to the recent weakening of demand is an alleviation of some supply chain constraints, which has in turn helped cool inflationary pressures for industrial goods. With the survey data indicating an increasing likelihood of the manufacturing sector slipping into a recession, these price pressures should ease further in the third quarter.”

                Full release here.

                Gold recovering after poor US job data, but bounded in range

                  Gold recovered notably in early US session, following the selloff in Dollar on much worse than expected US jobless claims data.

                  But after all, Gold is just seen as extending the consolidation pattern from 1931.84 short term bottom. That is, another fall remains in favor. Break of 1931.84 support will firstly confirm resumption of whole fall from 2062.95. Secondly, that should also have medium term channel support firmly taken out. In this case, Gold should target 38.2% retracement of 1614.60 to 2062.95 at 1891.68.

                  However, break of 1985.08 resistance will argue that the channel support is defended, and maintains medium term bullishness. Stronger rise should then be seen to retest 2062.95, even further to 2074.48 high.

                  China regrets EU’s WTO complaint on patent rights

                    The European Commission lodged a complaint to the WTO against China last week over its breach of patent rights of European companies. That came along side EC’s complaint against US steel and aluminum tariffs.

                    Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to the complaint over the weekend, saying that it regrets the complaint and said it will handle it through WTO dispute settlement. At this same time the MOFCOM said “The Chinese government has always attached great importance to the protection of intellectual property rights and adopted many powerful measures to protect the legitimate rights and interests of domestic and foreign intellectual property rights holders. The achievements have been obvious to all. In terms of intellectual property cooperation, China and the EU have established a working group mechanism for intellectual property rights. Through this mechanism, China and the EU have maintained effective communication and achieved positive results in many areas.”

                    US Perdue to Japan: We’re aware of your July election, but Trump expects you to treat us a premier customers in trade

                      On trade negotiation with Japan, US Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue warned that “we cannot continue to kick this trade can down the road forever.” While a quick deal might be difficult, he said Trump is is really looking forward to a deal sooner rather than later”.

                      Meanwhile, Perdue also said they’re “very much aware of the elections of the upper body”, in July in Japan. But he added, Trump is “expecting again Japan would treat us as their premier customer as we are.”

                      US ISM services dropped to 59.9 in Jan, corresponds to 3.5% annualized GDP growth

                        US ISM Services dropped -2.4 pts to 59.9 in January, above expectation of 58.7. Looking at some details, business activity/production dropped -8.4 to 59.9. New orders dropped -0.4 to 61.7. Employment dropped -2.4 to 52.3. Supplier deliveries rose 1.8 to 65.7. Prices dropped -1.6 to 82.3.

                        ISM said: “The past relationship between the Services PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI® for January (59.9 percent) corresponds to a 3.5-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

                        Full release here.

                        Canada CPI jumped to 5.7% yoy in Feb, highest since 1991

                          Canada CPI accelerated sharply form 5.1% yoy to 5.7% yoy in February, above expectation of 5.5% yoy. That’s the largest gain since August 1991, and it’s the second consecutive month where headline inflation exceeded 5% level. Excluding gasoline, CPI rose 4.7% yoy up from January’s 4.3% yoy, fastest since its introduction in 1999. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 1.0% mom in February, largest monthly increase since February 2013.

                          CPI common rose from 2.3% yoy to 2.6% yoy, above expectation of 2.4% yoy. CPI median rose from 3.3% yoy to 3.5% yoy, matched expectations. CPI trimmed rose from 4.0% yoy to 4.3% yoy, above expectation of 4.2% yoy.

                          Full release here.

                          BoJ Noguchi: Commitment has no strong effect in changing inflation expectations

                            BoJ is clear on its commitment to bring inflation “stably exceeds” 2% target. But board member Asahi Noguchi criticized, “personally, I don’t think this commitment has a strong effect in changing inflation expectations”

                            “It may take some time, but a more realistic policy would be to maintain the current powerful monetary easing to steadily improve the output gap, so that demand increases enough to prop up wages and inflation”, he added.

                            He’s also an advocate to push bond yield target to 15- to 20-year bonds. In particular, if a shock event pushes the economy into a serious downturn, BoJ should ease further “without hesitation”. “What’s important is to look at the basic trend of the economy, “he said. “Unless this trend is broken, it’s important to patiently sustain the current very powerful monetary easing.”

                            US initial jobless claims rose to 216k, below expectation

                              US initial jobless claims rose 2k to 216k in the week ending December 17, below expectation of 220k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -6k to 222k.

                              Continuing claims dropped -6k to 1672k in the week ending December 10. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 30k to 1657k.

                              Full release here.

                              BoJ Kuroda: Various tools including ETF purchases will be target of March policy framework review

                                BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told the parliament today that “the BOJ’s various tools, including its ETF buying, will be the target of the March review. We’ll examine how our tools are affecting markets and look at what we can do better.” He added that government bond buying has already slowed substantially as markets are calm. Average duration of the bond holdings also remained stable a around seven years.

                                Separately, former BoJ deputy governor Hirohide Yamaguchi told Reuters that BoJ’s review is “unlikely” to come up with “an outcome that has a substantial impact on the economy and markets. “The review will probably be just a show of gesture that it’s doing ‘something’ to address the cost,” said Yamaguchi.

                                “It’s impossible for the BOJ to guide public perceptions at its will,” Yamaguchi added. “It’s time now for the BOJ to conduct a ‘genuine’ policy review and use the findings to modify its policy framework.”

                                US Q3 GDP revised down to 3.4%, ex-transport durable orders contracted

                                  Released from US, Q3 GDP growth was finalized at 3.4% annualized, revised down from 3.5%. GDP price index was revised up from 1.7% to 1.8%. Durable goods orders rose 0.8% in November, much lower than expectation of 1.8%. Ex-transport orders even dropped -0.3% versus expectation of 0.3%.

                                  On the other hand, Canada GDP rose 0.3% mom, in October, above expectation of 0.2% mom. Headline retail sales rose 0.3% mom, below expectation of 0.6% mom. Ex-auto sales rose 0.0%, below expectation of 0.3%.

                                  USD/CAD extends recent up trend in early US session to as high as 1.3563 so far.

                                  But that’s mainly because WTI crude oil is extending recent free fall to as low as 45.00.

                                  BoE Pill: Distinctive context prevails in UK creates the potential for more persistent inflation

                                    BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said in a speech that the central bank’s communication “rightly places the persistence of inflation at centre-stage”.

                                    “Given the famous ‘long and variable lags’ in monetary policy transmission, it is the persistent component of inflation – that component of inflation that will still be there once the lags in monetary policy transmission unwind – that is the relevant object for the MPC’s attention,” he said.

                                    He also noted, “the distinctive context that prevails in the UK – of higher natural gas prices with a tight labour market, adverse labour supply developments and goods market bottlenecks – creates the potential for inflation to prove more persistent.”

                                    “It is therefore in this nexus that I focus in coming to my own assessment of the risks surrounding inflation persistence, which – consistent with the MPC’s collective communication – will strongly influence my monetary policy position in the coming months.”

                                    Full speech here.

                                    ECB stand ready to adjust all instruments including PEPP, TLTROs, interest rates and forward guidance

                                      In the accounts of June 3-4 ECB monetary policy meeting it’s noted there was “broad agreement” among Governing Council member to reiterate that the central bank “continued to stand ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate”. This include further adjusting the size and composition of the PEPP, as well as the full range of instruments including the TLTROs, policy interest rates and forward guidance.

                                      Governing Council members underlined that the sharp of economy recovery would “depend crucially on how consumption and investment evolved under the present uncertainties.” That also depends on whether the coronavirus pandemic leads to “longer-lasting changes in the behaviour of economic agents”.

                                      In particular, he expected pattern of the “saving ratio” was seen as a “key issue”. Some concerns was expressed that “expecting a full unwinding of higher savings might be too optimistic, as protracted uncertainty might keep the ratio higher for longer”.

                                      Full accounts here.

                                      China data beat, but USD/CNH stays above 7

                                        China industrial production rose 4.2% yoy in August, above expectation of 4.0% yoy. Retail sales rose 5.4% yoy, above expectation of 3.2% yoy. That’s the fastest pace since January-February period this year. Fixed asset investment rose 5.8% ytd yoy, above expectation of 5.6%.

                                        “The economy held out against multiple unexpected headwinds in August and showed a positive recovery with the help of more additional supportive policies,” the NBS said in a statement. “The manufacturing needs are steady and rising, employment and prices are stable, most indices are better than last month.”

                                        The set of better than expected data provided little support to the decline Yuan, with USD/CNH breaking through 7 psychological resistance this week. There is no sign of topping in the pair yet. USD/CNH is on track to 61.8% projection of 6.3057 to 6.8372 from 6.7159 at 7.0444. Firm break there will set the stage for pandemic high at 7.1961.

                                        Auto tariff report submitted, 90 days for Trump to act

                                          The US Commerce Department met the Sunday deadline and submitted its investigation report on imported cars and auto parts to the White House. The Section 232 is about national security threats from those auto imports. A Commerce Department spokesperson said it would not disclose any details of the report. Trump has 90 days to make a decision on whether to act up the recommendations, which could include some tariffs on fully assembled vehicles or on technologies and components related to electric, automated, connected and shared vehicles.

                                          German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in the Munich Security Conference that “we are proud of our cars and so we should be.” She added that “if that is viewed as a security threat to the United States, then we are shocked”. German car lobby VDA said the countries car industry has created more than 113k jobs in the US in recent years, with around 300 factories. German car companies were the largest car exporters from the US. And VDA said “all this strengthens the USA and is not a security problem.”