ECB Lagarde: Eurozone contraction likely in between medium and severe scenarios

    ECB President Christine Lagarde said the “mild” coronavirus economic scenario is now “out of date”. She added, “we’ll have a better sense in a few days as we publish our numbers in early June, but it’s likely we will be in between the medium and severe scenarios.” Eurozone economy is expected to contract between -8% to -12%.

    The central bank is expected to expand the Pandemic Emergence Purchase Program next week. Lagarde said with respect to the PEPP, “this concerns the size but also the composition and the duration of the program.” She also talked down the risk of a new debt crisis as debt-servicing costs are “extremely low”. “All countries around the world had to respond, and as a result of that had to increase their debt,” she said. In the current coronavirus crisis, “use of debt is not only recommended, it’s the way to go.”

    DOW breaks 55 day EMA decisively, confirming near term bearish reversal

      US stock markets are in deep selloff today on trade war concerns. At the time of writing, DOW is down -365 pts or -1.41%. S&P 500 is down -1.39%. NASDAQ is down -1.59%. 10-year yield is down -0.047 at 2.435. Technically, the near term outlook in the indices are rather bearish too.

      Regarding DOW, firstly, rise from 21712.53 is seen as the second leg of medium to long term consolidation pattern from 26951.81. (S&P 500 and NASDAQ broke respective historical highs but couldn’t sustain above. So, that doesn’t violate the view that equivalent rebounds were the second legs of corrective patterns too). Secondly, 26695.96 was reasonably close to 26951.81 high. Thirdly, bearish divergence is seen in daily MACD. Fourthly, 55 day EMA is now firmly taken out today.

      The developments suggest that rise from 21712.53 has completed at 26695.96 already. And fall from there should be the third leg of the above mentioned corrective pattern from 26951.81. Further decline should now be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 21712.53 to 26695.96 at 24792.28. Sustained break there should confirm our view and target 61.8% retracement at 23616.20 and below.

      Meanwhile, a turn around in US-China trade negotiation could reverse the decline in stocks. But could Chines Vice Premier achieve that? Theoretically yes but unlikely.

      UK Johnson to set Oct 15 deadline for deal with EU, or accept and move on

        It’s reported that UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is prepared to set an October 15 deadline for a deal with EU after the Brexit transition. Or, the UK and EU should both accept that there won’t be a free trade agreement and “move on”. A no-deal would means “having a trading agreement with the EU like Australia’s” using WTO protocols, and “that would be a good outcome” for the country.

        Foreign Minister Dominic Raab warned that this week is “a wake-up call for the EU”, adding “the EU’s best moment to strike a deal is now.” Fisheries and state aid rules are “the only two points holding us back”. “All the UK is asking for it to be treated like any other country in free trade negotiations,” he said. “No other country would accept being bound by or controlled by the EU’s rules.”

        UK’s chief negotiator David Frost told The Mail on Sunday: “We are not going to accept level playing field provisions that lock us in to the way the EU do things; we are not going to accept provisions that give them control over our money or the way we can organise things here in the UK and that should not be controversial – that’s what being an independent country is about, that’s what the British people voted for and that’s what will happen at the end of the year, come what may”.

        Separately, the Financial Times also reported that the UK government is planning legislation that would override key parts of the Withdrawal Agreement. The sections of internal market bill to be published on Wednesday would “eliminate the legal force of parts of the withdrawal agreement” in areas including state aid and Northern Ireland customs.

        UK PMI services finalized at 55, indicating 0.4% quarterly GDP growth

          UK PMI Services was finalized at 55.0 in April, marking a significant improvement from March’s 53.1 and representing the highest level since May 2023. This level of activity, the highest since May 2023, signals robust growth in the sector, with activity and new work rising at the fastest rates in 11 months. Despite these positive developments, input cost inflation remains high, reaching its peak since August 2023, though the rate of staff hiring continues to be subdued.

          Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, highlighted that the latest survey results suggest the UK economy is growing at a quarterly rate of 0.4%. He noted, “Prices charged inflation across the service sector eased to a three-year low in April, suggesting that the pass-through of higher costs has started to wane.” This slowdown in price increases comes despite a sharp rise in business expenses driven by strong wage inflation, which continues to push up operating costs.

          Full UK PMI services final release here.

          UK PMI Services finalized at 53.1, inflation pressures persist

            UK PMI Services was finalized at 53.1 in March, down from February’s 53.8. PMI Composite was finalized at 52.8, down from prior month’s 53.0.

            Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said, “The solid growth rate achieved in March reinforces the view that a rebound in service sector performance is helping the UK economy to pull out of last year’s shallow recession.”

            Meanwhile, Input prices have continued to rise sharply, with inflation rates only slightly below their six-month average. The primary factors contributing to the uptick in input costs include higher salary payments and increased transportation bills.

            The rate at which prices charged by service providers have increased slowed to its lowest point since September 2023. Despite this deceleration, the index remains well above its long-term trend, signaling enduring inflationary pressures within the UK’s domestic economy.

            Full UK PMI Services release here.

            US initial jobless claims rose to 1.43m, continuing claims rose back to 17m

              US initial jobless claims rose 12k to 1434k in the week ending July 25, slightly below expectation of 1450k. But that’s still the second straight week of increase in the figure. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 6.5k to 1369k.

              Continuing claims rose 867k to 17018k in the week ending July 18. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 436k to 17058k.

              Full release here.

              Japan reported strong industrial production and retail sales growth

                Japan reported strong industrial production growth of 4.5% mom in February, surpassing expectations of 2.8% mom growth. The seasonally adjusted production index for the manufacturing and mining sectors reached 94.8, with the industry ministry predicting a 2.3% mom increase in March and a 4.4% mom advance in April.

                Retail sales also exceeded expectations, rising 6.6% yoy compared to the anticipated 5.9% yoy. However, the unemployment rate increased from 2.4% to 2.6%, higher than the expected 2.4%.

                Inflation in Tokyo experienced a slight decline, with the March CPI dropping from 3.4% yoy to 3.3% yoy, still above the expected 2.7% yoy. The core CPI (excluding fresh food) eased from 3.3% yoy to 3.2% yoy, meeting expectations. Meanwhile, the core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) rose from 3.2% yoy to 3.4% yoy, surpassing the anticipated 3.3% yoy.

                Japan exports struggled in record losing streak

                  Japan’s exports dropped -4.2% yoy to JPY 6.11T. Imports dropped -11.1% yoy to JPY 5.75T. Trade surplus came in at JPY 367B. In seasonally adjusted terms, Trade surplus widened to JPY 0.57T, slightly above expectation of JPY 0.55T.

                  The data marked the 24th straight month of year-over year decline in exports, longest streak on record since 1979. By destination, exports to the US contracted for the first time in three months, by -2.5% yoy. Exports to China rose 3.8% yoy, slowest pace in five months. Exports to Asia also dropped for the first time in two months, by -4.3% yoy. Exports to EU dropped -2.6% yoy.

                  Yen surges on falling treasury yields

                    Yen surges in early US session with USD/JPY breaking key near term support of 108.27. US stock opened higher but are now trading off highs. Though, major indices are still in black and that’s likely not the reason for the rally in Yen. Instead, the sharp fall in treasury yield is likely what’s behind the move.

                    At the time of writing, US 10-year yield is down -0.0552 at 1.865. The break of 1.87 near term support now opens up the way for 1.7 handle.

                    Scotland’s supreme court rules Johnson’s parliament suspension as unlawful

                      Scotland’s highest court of appealed ruled that UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s decision to suspend the parliament until October 13 was unlawful. Scottish National Party lawmaker Joanna Cherry, who led the challenge immediately called for parliament “to be recalled immediately”.

                      Johnson’s spokesman, on the other hand, said he has absolute respect for the independence of the judiciary. However, they’re still going to appeal the Scottish court’s ruling.

                      Trump considering 60-day extension to trade truce as high level talks start

                        High level US-China trade negotiations started in the Diaoyutai state guest house in Beijing today, involving US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He. Ahead of that, Mnuchin said he’s “looking forward to discussions today”. There was no elaborate and so far, there is no news leaked regarding the talks.

                        Trump indicated earlier this week that he’s willing to let the March 1 trade truce deadline slide a little bit. Trump further added that the talks are “going along very well” and the Chinese are “showing us tremendous respect.” Bloomberg reported that Trump is indeed considering to extend the deadline by 60 days, after rejecting the initial request by China of 90 days extension. But the rumor is not confirmed.

                        Yen trades generally lower on the news while Australian Dollar strengthens. But reactions from the stock markets are rather muted. Currently, Hong Kong HSI is down -0.4% and China SSE is down -0.04%.

                        Australia wage price index rose 0.5% qoq, consumer sentiment rose 4.5%

                          Australia Wage Price Index rose 0.5% qoq in Q3, matched expectations. The trend and seasonally adjusted indexes for Australia both rose 2.2% through the year. The ABS Chief Economist, Bruce Hockman stated “The rate of annual wage growth eased slightly in September after being stable over the past year, continuing to grow at a slightly faster rate than consumer prices over the past year. The largest contribution to wage growth over the quarter was jobs in the health care and social assistance industry.”

                          Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment rose 4.5% to 97.0 in November, up from 92.8. Westpac said “This result continues to support the general view that consumers are somewhat unnerved by the announcement of low rates and media controversy around the banks’ responses.”

                          ECB Villeroy said rates nearing a high plateau

                            Speaking at a conference in Aix-en-Provence, France, ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau stated that Eurozone was nearing the “high point” of interest rates, a level expected to be sustained to allow full transmission of monetary policy effects.

                            Villeroy added, “But when I say high point this isn’t a peak, rather it will be a high plateau, on which we will have to remain for a sufficiently long time to fully transmit all the effects of monetary policy.”

                            Joining him on the panel was fellow Governing Council member Mario Centeno, who underlined ECB’s focus on headline inflation, noting its more rapid than anticipated decrease. However, he also highlighted the importance of core inflation, which he acknowledged was not dropping as swiftly.

                            Centeno stressed, “We target headline inflation, that’s very important. And headline inflation is coming down, actually it’s coming down faster than the way up.”

                            Centeno went on to add, “Core inflation stands out as a very important indicator. It’s not coming down as fast as headline inflation, but we also need to remember that in the way up it played exactly the same trajectory. So we need to remain confident too in the way we are fighting inflation.”

                            Italian yield falls as government got EU approval on budget, Euro lifted

                              Italian 10 year yield drops notably at open today on news that the coalition government had finally got agreement from European Commission on its 2019 budget plan, thus avoiding disciplinary actions.

                              It’s now trading down -0.163 at 2.784 and is set to challenge September’s low. German 10 year yield is now up 0.0053 at 0.252. Spread is back at 253.

                              EUR/CHF benefits from the development and is extending recent rebound from 1.1224.

                              European Commission slashes 2019 Eurozone growth forecast by -0.6% to 1.3%

                                European Commission projected EU growth to continue for the seventh year in a row in 2019, with expansion in all member states. But the pace of growth is expected to slow further as “economic momentum at the start of this year was subdued.” Indeed, GDP growth for 2019 was quite sharply downgraded.

                                For Eurozone:

                                • 2019 growth is forecast to be 1.3%, versus prior forecast of 1.9%.
                                • 2020 growth is forecast to be 1.6% versus prior 1.7%.
                                • 2019 HICP inflation is projected to be 1.4%
                                • 2020 HICP inflation is projected to be at 1.5%.

                                For EU:

                                • 2019 growth is forecast to be 1.5%, versus prior 1.9%.
                                • 2020 growth is forecast to be 1.7%, versus prior 1.8%.
                                • 2019 HICP inflation is projected to be 1.6%
                                • 2020 HICP inflation is projected to be at 1.8%.

                                Here is the summary table:

                                The commission also pointed out there is “a high level of uncertainty” surrounding the outlook, and the projections are subject to downside risks. Risks include trade tensions, slowdown in China, global financial markets and emerging markets risks, as well as Brexit.

                                Valdis Dombrovskis, Vice-President for the Euro and Social Dialogue, also in charge of Financial Stability, Financial Services and Capital Markets Union, said: “All EU countries are expected to continue to grow in 2019, which means more jobs and prosperity. Yet our forecast is revised downwards, in particular for the largest euro area economies. This reflects external factors, such as trade tensions and the slowdown in emerging markets, notably in China. Concerns about the sovereign-bank loop and debt sustainability are resurfacing in some euro area countries. The possibility of a disruptive Brexit creates additional uncertainty. Being aware of these mounting risks is half of the job. The other half is choosing the right mix of policies, such as facilitating investment, redoubling efforts to carry out structural reforms and pursuing prudent fiscal policies.”

                                Pierre Moscovici, Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, Taxation and Customs, said: “After its 2017 peak, the EU economy’s deceleration is set to continue in 2019, to growth of 1.5%. This slowdown is set to be more pronounced than expected last autumn, especially in the euro area, due to global trade uncertainties and domestic factors in our largest economies. Europe’s economic fundamentals remain solid and we continue to see good news particularly on the jobs front. Growth should rebound gradually in the second half of this year and in 2020.”

                                Full release here.

                                Full forecast report here.

                                CAD surges after BoC, a look at EUR/CAD, CAD/JPY

                                  Canadian Dollar jumps broadly after BoC statement. The tapering was well expected. But BoC now expects economic slack to be absorbed in H2 2022, suggesting that the timing of rate hike could happen much earlier than prior expected.

                                  CAD/JPY appears to have drawn strong support from 55 day EMA and rebounded. Focus is back on 86.88 minor resistance. Break will suggest that pull back from 88.28 has completed at 85.40. Stronger rise would then be seen back to retest 88.28 high quickly.

                                  EUR/CAD’s fall is also back on 1.4949 support with the steep post BoC fall. Break will indicate that corrective rebound form 1.4723 has completed at 1.5191, and bring retest of 1.4723 low.

                                  ECB Lagarde: Doesn’t make sent to react to current inflation by tightening policy

                                    In a speech, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the central bank focus on “medium term, not on current inflation numbers”. “When inflation pressure is expected to fade – as is the case today – it does not make sense to react by tightening policy,” she added. “The tightening would not affect the economy until after the shock has already passed.”

                                    Lagarde also said, “supply shock” will tend to “push up inflation and depress output. In this case, “tighter monetary policy would only exacerbate the contractionary effect on the economy.” The Eurozone is facing a “mixture of shocks”, partly related to catch-up demand but has a “strong supply-driven element”. “Tightening policy prematurely would only make this squeeze on household incomes worse.”

                                    “The conditions to raise rates are very unlikely to be satisfied next year,” she said. “Moreover, even after the expected end of the pandemic emergency, it will still be important for monetary policy – including the appropriate calibration of asset purchases – to support the recovery and the sustainable return of inflation to our target of 2%.”

                                    Full speech here.

                                    UK PMI construction rose to 55.3, return to growth has been achieved

                                      UK PMI construction rose sharply to 55.3 in June, up from May’s 28.9, well above expectation of 47.0. While new orders stabilized, employment fell again. Also, lack of materials availability pushed up input costs.

                                      Tim Moore, Economics Director at IHS Markit: “As the first major part of the UK economy to begin a phased return to work, the strong rebound in construction activity provides hope to other sectors that have suffered through the lockdown period. While it has taken time for the construction supply chain to adapt and rebuild capacity after widespread business closures, there is now clear evidence that a return to growth has been achieved…

                                      “…Looking ahead, construction firms are more confident than at any time since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the ongoing reductions in staffing numbers seen in June provide a stark reminder that underlying conditions across the sector are a long way off returning to those seen before the public health emergency.”

                                      Full release here.

                                      Fed Mester signals need for further rate hike, foresees no impending recession

                                        In a speech delivered today, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester expressed surprise at the resilience shown by the economy which, in her words, “has shown more underlying strength than anticipated earlier this year.” However, Mester also raised concerns regarding the stubbornly high inflation rates, noting that “progress on core inflation [has been] stalling.”

                                        “In order to ensure that inflation is on a sustainable and timely path back to 2%,” she said, “my view is that the funds rate will need to move up somewhat further from its current level and then hold there for a while as we accumulate more information on how the economy is evolving.”

                                        Mester also touched on labor market’s imbalance during reopening, where she noted that “labor demand well outpaced labor supply, putting upward pressure on wages and price inflation.” Although she sees progress in achieving a more balanced situation, she cautioned that “it is slow progress and demand is still outpacing supply.”

                                        Despite these challenges, Mester revealed a streak of optimism in the business community. She said that most business leaders “think there won’t be a recession this year, and many think that, even if demand slows down some more, a recession will be avoided or will be very mild.”

                                        Australia AiG services dropped to 48.8, two-speed pattern to gather pace

                                          Australia AiG Performance of Services Index dropped -0.4 to 48.8 in June. Looking at some details, sales plummeted by -8.8 to 41.9. Employment surged 7.9 to 55.3. New orders ticked down by -0.8 to 58.9. Input prices rose 0.3 to 69.0. Selling prices rose 5.3 to 67.2. Averages jumped 10.3 to 67.7.

                                          Innes Willox, Chief Executive Ai Group, said: “With interest rates rising for the first time in a decade, we have seen a ‘two-speed’ services sector emerge in June. Industries which are sensitive to sentiment changes – such as business & property, and personal & recreational services – declined into contraction. Less interest-rate-exposed services remained in a growth phase. With the RBA increasing rates by 50 basis points again this week, we would expect this two-speed pattern to gather pace.”

                                          Full release here.