German CPI slowed to 1.4% yoy, below expectations of 1.5% yoy

    Germany CPI dropped -0.2% mom in August, worse than expectation of -0.1% mom. Annually, CPI slowed to 1.4% yoy, down from 1.7% yoy, missed expectation of 1.5% yoy.

    Released earlier today, German unemployment rose 4k in August, matched expectations. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0%, also matched expectations.

    Australian CPI eases more than expected to 4.9% in July

      Australia’s monthly CPI for July registered a deeper than expected slowdown, easing from 5.4% yoy to 4.9% yoy. Analysts had forecasted a milder decline to 5.2% yoy. The underlying inflation measures also indicated a deceleration. CPI excluding volatile items such as holiday travel came in at 5.8% yoy, down from 6.1% yoy. The trimmed mean CPI, which is often regarded as a more accurate reflection of inflationary pressures, slowed from 6.0% yoy to 5.6% yoy.

      A closer look at the inflation contributors reveals a mixed picture. Housing costs remained a significant upward pressure, climbing 7.3% on an annual basis. Food and non-alcoholic beverages followed closely, rising by 5.6% yoy. However, this was offset by substantial price falls in other areas. Automotive fuel costs dropped by -7.6%, while fruit and vegetable prices declined by -5.4%, thus tempering the overall July increase.

      The latest CPI data comes on the heels of yesterday’s hawkish comments from incoming RBA Governor Michele Bullock, who emphasized that her first priority is still to maintain a focus on bringing inflation back down to target. Today’s lower-than-expected inflation figures might lend some flexibility to RBA’s policy approach, but with sectors like housing and food still exhibiting strong price pressures, the central bank’s task appears far from straightforward.

      Full Australia monthly CPI release here.

      US ISM manufacturing dropped to 47.4, corresponds to -0.5% annualized GDP contraction

        US ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped further from 48.4 to 47.4 in January, below expectation of 48.7. Looking at some details, new orders dropped from 45.1 to 42.5. Production dropped from 48.6 to 48.0. Employment dropped from 50.8 to 50.6. Prices rose from 5.1 to 39.4.

        ISM said: “The U.S. manufacturing sector again contracted, with the Manufacturing PMI® at its lowest level since the coronavirus pandemic recovery began. With Business Survey Committee panelists reporting softening new order rates over the previous nine months, the January composite index reading reflects companies slowing outputs to better match demand in the first half of 2023 and prepare for growth in the second half of the year.”

        “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the Manufacturing PMI® for January (47.4 percent) corresponds to a -0.5-percent change in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

        Full release here.

        UK PM May maintains her pledge to deliver Brexit ahead of no-confidence vote

          In the UK, eyes are now first on no-confidence vote on Prime Minister Theresa May at 1900GMT. After yesterday’s humiliating 432 to 202 defeat of her Brexit deal, May told the parliament today that “What the government wants to do is first of all to ensure that we deliver on the result of the referendum”.

          She added that “We want to do it in a way that ensures we respect the votes of those who voted to leave in that referendum. That means ending free movement, it means getting a fairer deal for farmers and fishermen, it means opening up new opportunities to trade with the rest of the world.”

          Opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn urged a new election. He said “if a government cannot get its legislation through parliament, it must got to the country for a new mandate”. And, “there can be no doubt that this is indeed a zombie government.”

          Conservative backbencher Dominic Grieve, proposed two new bills that would enable preparations for a second referendum. He expected the government to disregard it as it controls the time and schedule for debates. But he added “if Parliament seizes control, then I imagine time will be found for it,” and “it’s a marker, so once it’s down it can be used.”

          German news paper Handelsblatt reported that Germany, the Netherlands and some other EU countries are trying to explore some concessions regarding the issue of Irish border backstop. But we’ll tend not to pay too much attention to rumors, until they’re confirmed.

          France PMI composite dropped to 49.3, 30-month low, first contraction in more than 2 years

            France PMI manufacturing dropped to 49.7 in December, down from 50.8, and missed expectation of 50.7. It’s the worst reading in 27 months. France PMI services dropped to 59.6, down from 55.1 and missed expectation of 54.8. It’s the lowest level in 34 months. PMI composite dropped to 49.3, down from 54.2. It’s a 30-month low and the first contraction reading in 2 1/2 years.

            Commenting on the Flash PMI data, Eliot Kerr, Economist at IHS Markit said:

            “Having held up reasonably well throughout the initial months of Q4, latest flash data pointed to an outright contraction in France’s private sector for the first time in two-and-a-half years, following the protests which have swept through the country in recent weeks. Momentum in the manufacturing sector’s downturn gathered pace, while most notably, the service sector’s resilience came to a halt, with business activity and demand dropping.

            “Prior to the December flash results, survey data suggested that the French economy was set to record a fairly reasonable quarterly expansion in Q4. Having propped private sector growth up in recent months, contraction in the service sector presents significant downside risks to Q4 growth prospects.”

            Full release here.

            ECB de Guindos: Green energy is a key priority for environment and security

              ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said in a speech, “for the euro area, the financial stability impact of the war has so far been relatively contained.” And, “markets have generally been functioning well”, with “no dash for cash”.

              “While both banks and non-banks have been affected – especially the few that have large direct exposures to Russia and Ukraine – the economic fallout has not had a sizeable impact on the EU banking or financial systems as a whole,” he added.

              But he also noted, “the invasion of Ukraine also demonstrated how vulnerable Europe is due to its high dependency on fossil fuel imports from Russia. Speeding up the green transition is a key priority from this perspective too – not only to address the urgent environmental and climate challenges we face, but also to help increase our energy security and protect the EU economy from energy price spikes.”

              Full speech here.

              Eurozone economic sentiment indicator rose to 114.0 in Feb, EU rose to 112.8

                Eurozone Economist Sentiment Indicator rose from 112.7 to 114.0 in February. Industry confidence rose from 13.9 to 14.0. Services confidence rose from 9.1 to 13.0. Consumer confidence rose from -8.5 to -8.8. Retail trade confidence rose from 3.7 to 5.4. Employment Expectation Indicator rose from 112.7 to 116.2, highest since May 2000.

                EU Economic Sentiment Indicator rose from 111.6 to 112.8. Employment Expectation Indicator rose from 113.4 to 115.8, an all time high. Amongst the largest EU economies, the ESI improved in Spain (+2.4), France (+1.9), Germany (+1.2) and Italy (+1.0), whereas it weakened in the Netherlands and Poland (both -1.7).

                 

                Full release here.

                Canada GDP grew 0.8% mom in Oct, 0.3% mom in Nov

                  Canada GDP grew 0.8% mom in October, matched expectations. Goods-producing sector rose 1.6% mom while services-producing sector rose 0.6% mom. 17 of 20 industrial sectors posted gains.

                  According to advance information, GDP increased 0.3% in November, led by accommodation and food services, wholesale trade, construction and the arts and entertainment sectors, while the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector offset some of the gains.

                  Full release here.

                  FOMC minutes: Officials to update their assessments at each meeting

                    The minutes of the January FOMC meeting contained little surprises. Fed acknowledged that ” recent inflation readings had continued to significantly exceed the Committee’s longer-run goal and elevated inflation was persisting longer than they had anticipated.” And, ” elevated inflation was a burden on U.S. households, particularly those who were least able to pay higher prices for essential goods and services.”

                    Most participants noted, “if inflation does not move down as they expect, it would be appropriate for the Committee to remove policy accommodation at a faster pace than they currently anticipate.” But, “the appropriate path of policy would depend on economic and financial developments and their implications for the outlook and the risks around the outlook.”

                    Fed officials “will be updating their assessments of the appropriate setting for the policy stance at each meeting.”

                    Meanwhile, ” in light of the current high level of the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings, a significant reduction in the size of the balance sheet would likely be appropriate.”

                    Full minutes here.

                    New Zealand: Record monthly trade deficit as imports surged

                      New Zealand goods exports dropped -0.9% yoy to NZD 4.4B in August. Goods imports rose 38.0% yoy to NZD 6.5B. Trade deficit came in at record NZD -2.1B, versus expectation of NZD 110m surplus.

                      Exports to top trading partners were mixed, up 12% to China and 5.9% to Japan, but down -9.1% to Australia, -11% to US and -12% to EU. Imports from all top trading partners were up, from China up 40%, from EU up 42%. from Australia up 19%, from USA up 15%, and from Japan up 83%.

                      “This is a larger deficit than normal because of higher values for imports, particularly vehicles, continuing the trend observed over the last few months. August is also the month when we typically see lower values for dairy exports,” international trade manager Alasdair Allen said.

                      Full release here.

                      Eurozone finance minister rejected Italy budget, new or revised DBP a necessity

                        Eurozone finance ministers showed united stance against Italy’s budget in the meeting in Brussels yesterday. In a statement, they said “we agree with the Commission assessment” on Italy’s draft budget plan (DBP). And, the group “look forward for Italy and the Commission to engage in an open and constructive dialogue and for Italy to cooperate closely with the Commission in the preparation of a revised budgetary plan which is in line with the SGP (Stability and Growth Pact).”

                        At the post meeting press conference,  Commissioner for Economic Affairs Pierre Moscovici reiterated that a “new” or “revised” DBP was requested by November 13, and “that is a necessity”.

                        However, Italian Economy Minister Givoanni said after the meeting that the his government wasn’t in the process of changing the budget. Instead, he added, “We hope that the spread will narrow when the market understands our strategy.”

                        Copper hits yearly high on global growth optimism

                          Copper soars to the highest levels in over a year this year, driven by renewed optimism regarding global economic growth and expectations of monetary easing from the world’s major central banks. This surge reflects growing confidence among investors that the downturn in manufacturing, including even China, may have past its worst. The prospect of interest rate cuts this year further fuels this positive mood for commodities like copper.

                          Technically, Copper’s rally from 3.5021 resumed this week and it’s now on track to 161.8% projection of 3.5021 to 3.9346 from 3.6324 at 4.3322, which is close to 4.3556 (2023 high). In any case, outlook will stay bullish as long as 3.9380 support holds. The bigger question is whether Copper is indeed resuming the rise from 3.1314 (2022 low) too. Let’s see.

                          US goods trade deficit widened to $68.3B

                            US goods trade deficit widened 8.5% mom to USD -68.3B in December, larger than expectation of USD -64.5B. Goods exports rose USD 0.4B to USD 137.0B. Goods imports rose USD 5.8B to USD 205.3B.

                            Wholesale inventories dropped -0.1% mom to USD 675.6B. Retail inventories was flat at USD 661.2B.

                            Full release here.

                            ECB de Guindos didn’t foresee recession in Eurozone

                              ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said he didn’t foresee Eurozone entering into recession. However, low growth could extend for a longer time. Meanwhile, latest news regarding US-China trade negotiations were positive. De Guindos also warned that low profitability of banks would lead to low valuation, “making the inevitable consolidation of the sector very difficult.” Low profitability of Eurozone banks was also related to costly structures and excess capacity.

                              Separately over the weekend, ECB policymaker Robert Holzmann complained that the current ECB monetary policy is “wrong” and “a different policy is needed in the future”. He added that ECB should think about lowering inflation target, temporarily, from 2% to 1.5%. Also, “I am convinced that she has heard the dissenting voices, that she will take them seriously and will try to find a new approach here.”

                              RBNZ raises rate track, signaling additional rate hike

                                RBNZ decided to keep the Official Cash Rate steady at 5.50%, aligning with market expectations. However, a significant aspect of their announcement is the upward revision of their “rate track.”

                                According to the bank’s forecasts in the Monetary Policy Statement, OCR is expected to peak at 5.70% in Q2 of 2024 and maintain this level throughout the year. Looking ahead, RBNZ anticipates a rate cut in Q2 of 2025, bringing it down to 5.4%.

                                In the accompanying statement, RBNZ noted, “ongoing excess demand and inflationary pressures are of concern, given the elevated level of core inflation.”

                                RBNZ also emphasized its readiness to hike again. “If inflationary pressures were to be stronger than anticipated, the OCR would likely need to increase further.”

                                Moreover, RBNZ underlined the necessity of maintaining interest rates at a restrictive level for a sustained period, aiming at ensuring consumer price inflation returns to target level and to support maximum sustainable employment.

                                Full RBNZ statement and MPS here.

                                Eurozone PPI up 4.0% mom, 37.9% yoy in Jul

                                  Eurozone PPI rose 4.0% mom in July, up from June’s 1.3% mom, above expectation of 2.5% mom. For the year, PPI rose 37.9% yoy, accelerated from 36.0% yoy, well above expectation of 35.8% yoy.

                                  For the month, industrial producer prices increased by 9.0% mom in the energy sector, by 1.2% mom for non-durable consumer goods, by 0.9% mom for durable consumer goods, by 0.8% mom for capital goods and by 0.1% mom for intermediate goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 0.6% mom.

                                  EU PPI rose 3.7% mom, 37.8% yoy. The highest monthly increases in industrial producer prices were recorded in Ireland (+26.1%), Hungary (+9.4%) and Bulgaria (+8.0%), while the largest decreases were observed in Portugal (-1.5%), Sweden (-1.2%) and Luxembourg (-0.9%).

                                  Full release here.

                                  Australia employment grew 90k in Nov, unemployment rate dropped to 6.8%

                                    Australia employment grew 90k in November, to 12.86m, much better than expectation of 50.0k. Over, the year, though, employment was still down -0.6% or -83.1k. Looking at some details, Full-time jobs rose 84.2k to 8.73m. Part-time jobs rose 5.8k to 4.14m.

                                    Unemployment rate dropped -0.2% to 6.8%, better than expectation of 7.0%. Participation rate rose 0.3% to 66.1%. Hours worked rose 2.5% mom.

                                    Full release here.

                                    Australia Westpac leading index edged up to -0.5%, growth struggles despite population boom

                                      Westpac Leading Index for Australia indicates that the nation’s growth outlook remains subdued. The index inched up marginally from -0.56% to -0.50% in August, marking a year since it began registering negative readings. These figures suggest that the prospect of per capita GDP advancing in the coming 3–9 months appears bleak.

                                      Westpac’s forecasts for the next year resonate with the index’s gloomy narrative, anticipating an economic growth of less than 1% for the year leading up to June 2024. Interestingly, there’s a potential silver lining: with predictions pointing to population growth surpassing 2% in 2023, this could introduce some upside risks to the otherwise somber economic projections.

                                      However, despite this population surge, the economy is projected to trail behind, as evident from the March and June quarter results. Both quarters witnessed a contraction of -0.3% in GDP per capita, a pattern that’s predicted to persist in the forthcoming year.

                                      Regarding next RBA rate decision on October 3, Westpac said it’s “almost certain to hold rates steady for another month”. The crucial data for the next move would be September quarter inflation report, which will not be available until the November RBA meeting.

                                      Full Australia Westpac Leading Index release here.

                                      US retail sales up 0.4% mom in Apr, ex-auto sales up 0.4% mom

                                        US retail sales rose 0.4% mom in USD 686.1B in April, below expectation of 0.8% mom. Ex-auto sales rose 0.4% mom to USD 556.1B, below expectation of 0.5% mom. Ex-gasoline sales rose 0.5% mom to USD 631.4B. Ex-auto, gasoline sales rose 0.6% mom to USD 501.4B. Total sales for the February through April period were up 3.1% yoy.

                                        Full US retail sales release here.

                                        BoJ Nakamura: Prolonged holding of assets could affect market functions

                                          BoJ board member Toyoaki Nakamura said the March policy review will seek ways to make the easing framework more “effective” and “sustainable”. The review will also looking into whether the asset purchases and various tools are “exerting intended effects”.

                                          Nakamura maintained that ETF purchases “will remain a necessary tool” to eradicate the deflationary mindset”. But “this is not just about ETFs but by buying huge amounts of assets and holding onto them for a prolonged period, the BOJ could affect market functions. That is something we need to be mindful of”.