UK Hunt, Some wait for UK to blink on Brexit talk, but that won’t happen

    UK Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt warned that there is “now a very real risk of a Brexit no-deal by accident”. He said that alongside German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas in a visit to Germany today. Hunt added that “many people in the EU are thinking that they just have to wait long enough and Britain will blink”, but “that’s not going to happen”. Also, “without a real change in approach from the EU negotiators we do now face a real risk of no deal by accident and that would be incredibly challenging economically,”

    Maas said in the same occasion that “we know that everyone has to make mutual concessions to get this deal.” And, “European Union has its interests, overall interests, so not just individual member-states but EU institutions.”

    According to a YouGov poll for Sunday Times, only 11% of British support Theresa May’s Brexit plan. 50% would choose to remain in the EU while 38% would choose a no-deal Brexit.

    Nikkei lost -1.33% on Yen’s strength, China SSE gained 1% as government manipulate halted Yuan’s slide

      In tandem with the strong rally in the Japanese yen today, Stocks were sold off deeply. Nikkei 225 ended the day down -300.89 pts, or -1.33%, at 22396.99. Technically, 23050.39 proves to be too strong a resistance level for Nikkei.

      But still, for now, we’re favoring the bullish case that rise from 21462.94 is resuming whole rebound from 20347.59. Hence, we’d expect strong support at around 55 day EMA (now at 22345.59) to contain downside and break rally resumption. Firm break of 23050.93 will confirm rise resumption for 100% projection of 20347.49 to 2305039 from 21462.92 at 24165.84. That is close to 24129.34 high.

      However, sustained break of the 55 day EMA will extend the sideway pattern inside 21462.94/23050.39 in near term.

      On the other hand, China Shanghai SSE composite gained 30.27 pts also 1.07% to close at 2859.54. the break of 2848.37 resistance confirm resumption of rebound from 2691.02 low. Sentiments have clearly improved on talks that China has intervened last week to halt the Yuan’s recent free fall.

      Further rise should be seen to 55 day EMA (now at 2946.10) and possibly above. But at this point, we’re seeing no prospect of sustained break of 3000 handle. Hence, we’d expect another fall back to retest key support zone between 2016 low at 2638.30 and 2700 at a later stage.

      Bundesbank: German economy regaining some lost momentum

        Bundesbank said in the latest monthly report released today that the German economy is regaining some momentum currently. It noted that “the economy has likely showed better momentum in the spring than at the start of the year.” Nonetheless ” it is unlikely that the high growth rates of the past year will be repeated, manufacturing was once again the key economic driving force.”

        The report noted that car production increased sharply with pharmaceutical products. But intermediates goods remained weak. Household consumption remained a cornerstone for growth. Government consumption also rebounded. Also, “activity in the booming construction sector likely increased significantly, despite capacity constraints.”

        China said it won’t devaluate Yuan to stimulate exports, but how about intervention to halt Yuan’s fall?

          China Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said in a regular press briefing today that “China does not intend to stimulate exports through the currency competitive devaluation” and added that’s China’s consistent position. He went further to emphasize that the “RMB exchange rate is mainly determined by the market supply and demand.” And for now, “China’s economic fundamentals continue to improve, providing strong support for the RMB exchange rate to remain basically stable.”

          However, Geng didn’t directly say China has not intervene in the markets. It’s suspected that a state own-bank has stepped in last Friday selling US Dollar to halt the decline of the yuan when USD/CNY (on shore yuan) breached the government’s red line of 6.8. US Treasury Steven Mnuchin said last Friday that the US will monitor if China has manipulate the Yuan exchange rate. Mnuchin has to deliver his promise and come out to warn China for not intervening in the markets again, and just let Yuan falls against Dollar, if he didn’t lie.

          EU Schinas: There are no offers when Juncker visits US

            European Commission spokesman Margaritis Schinas said in a news conference today that President Jean-Claude Juncker will not bring a trade offer to the US when he visits Washington on July 25. Schinas said “I do not wish to enter into a discussion about mandates, offers because there are no offers. This is a discussion, it is a dialogue and it is an opportunity to talk and to stay engaged in dialogue.”

            This is an echo of the comments by EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom last week. She said that the visit was to “try to establish a good relations, try to see how we can de-escalate the situation, avoiding it going further and see if there is a forum where we can discuss these issues.” She added that “we don’t go there to negotiate anything.”

            Yen lifted as 10 year JGB yield jumped on BoJ talks

              Yen trade broadly higher today as boosted by the steep rally in 10 year JGB yield. 10 year yield in Japan jumped as much as six basis points to 0.090%, hitting the highest level since February. It’s also the largest daily rally in nearly two years. The sharp movement prompted an unscheduled operation by BoJ to buy 10 year JGB at a yield of 0.11%. That’s the same level as at last intervention but no bid was tendered.

              The movements were based on reports that BoJ is discussing changes to its monetary policy, including the interest-rate targets and stocks-buying techniques. The objective is to make the stimulus program more sustainable. Currently, under the Yield Curve Control framework, BoJ is buying JGBs to keep 10 year yield at around 0%. And the central bank could allow 10 year yield to rise higher to 0.10% to give more flexibility to monetary policy.

              But when asked about the reports at G20 meeting in Argentina, BoJ Government Haruhiko Kuroda said “I know absolutely nothing about the basis for those reports.” And so far, reports suggested that BoJ policymakers are only in preliminary discussion on the way to tweak the policy. And it’s highly unlikely for any significant decision at the July 31 meeting.

              Poll shows May’s Brexit plan overwhelmingly rejected

                A latest poll showed that UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s current Brexit plan is rejected by the British, in rather overwhelming way. The poll was conducted by YouGov for the Sunday Times between July 19-20. It showed that in case of a new referendum, only 11% would support the so-called “the Chequers deal”. 38% would vote for a “no-deal Brexit”. And 50% would vote for remaining in the EU. Giving a second preference, 54% would vote for “remain” while 46% will vote for a “no-deal Brexit”.

                May tried to defend the plan and said “this is a principled and practical Brexit that is in the mutual interests of the UK and EU, but it will require pragmatism from both sides.” But as the Sunday Times commented, “the problem for May is that the Chequers plan is viewed as too favourable to Britain by the EU, too unfavourable to Britain by the Brexiteers and unworkable by both.”

                Japan Suga: Returning to TPP is in the best interest of Japan and US

                  Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga insisted over the weekend that returning to the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement is in the best interests of both Japan and the US. The comments came in before meeting of Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer for bilateral trade later this month. And that’s a clear indication that Japan is not interested in bilateral trade deal that the US is keen on pursuing. Suga added that “Japan is not going to do anything with any country that harms the national interest.” And, “with FTA negotiations too, we’ll handle them in that way.”

                  Finance Minister Taro Aso also said that “inward-looking policies would benefit no country.” And added that “excessive current account imbalances should be resolved through multilateral, not bilateral, framework. ” Also, “the matter should be dealt with through macroeconomic policy and a structural reform by rebalancing savings and investments, instead of imposing tariffs.”

                  G20 pledged to strengthen contribution of trade to the economies

                    G20 finance ministers and central bankers stepped up their language regarding trade tension in the communique after the meeting in Argentina. The communique noted that “risks over the short and medium term have increased”. And the risks include “financial vulnerabilities, heightened trade and geopolitical tensions, global imbalances, inequality and structurally weak growth, particularly in some advanced economies.” The group pledged to “continue to monitor risks, take action to mitigate them and respond if they materialise.”

                    The communique also noted that “international trade and investment are important engines of growth, productivity, innovation, job creation and development.” The group reaffirmed the conclusions on trade at the Hamburg Summit and “recognise the need to step up dialogue and actions to mitigate risks and enhance confidence”. And “we are working to strengthen the contribution of trade to our economies.”

                    Below is the full communique.

                    Communiqué

                    G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors

                    July 23, 2018, Buenos Aires, Argentina

                    1. Global economic growth remains robust and unemployment is at a decade low. However, growth has been less synchronised recently, and downside risks over the short and medium term have increased. These include rising financial vulnerabilities, heightened trade and geopolitical tensions, global imbalances, inequality and structurally weak growth, particularly in some advanced economies. We will continue to monitor risks, take action to mitigate them and respond if they materialise. Although many emerging market economies are now better prepared to adjust to changing external conditions, they still face challenges including market volatility and reversal of capital flows.
                    2. We will continue using all policy tools to support strong, sustainable, balanced and inclusive growth. Monetary policy will continue to support economic activity and ensure price stability, consistent with central banks’ mandates. Fiscal policy should be used flexibly and be growth-friendly, prioritise high quality investment, while enhancing economic and financial resilience and ensuring debt as a share of GDP is on a sustainable path. Continued implementation of structural reforms will enhance our growth potential. We reaffirm our exchange rate commitments made in March. We will clearly communicate our macroeconomic and structural policy action. International trade and investment are important engines of growth, productivity, innovation, job creation and development. We reaffirm our Leaders’ conclusions on trade at the Hamburg Summit and recognise the need to step up dialogue and actions to mitigate risks and enhance confidence. We are working to strengthen the contribution of trade to our economies.
                    3. As we embrace technological transformation, we will ensure its benefits are widely shared and address the challenges it creates for individuals, businesses, and governments. We endorse the Menu of Policy Options for the Future of Work (the Menu) which will help us to: harness technology to strengthen growth and productivity; support people during transitions and address distributional challenges; secure sustainable tax systems; and ensure that the best possible evidence informs our decision-making. The Menu also reinforces the importance of international cooperation and promoting gender equality. We will draw on the Menu to respond to the impacts of technological change, considering individual country circumstances.
                    4. To further boost infrastructure investment, and support growth and development, we welcome progress on the Roadmap to Infrastructure as an Asset Class. We endorse the G20 Principles for the Infrastructure Project Preparation Phase which will help deliver a pipeline of well-prepared and bankable projects that are attractive to private investors by improving assessments of project rationale, options appraisal, commercial viability, long-term affordability, and deliverability. We look forward to key progress being achieved under the Roadmap in the areas of risk mitigation and credit enhancements, data availability, and contractual and financial standardisation by the end of 2018. The Private Sector Advisory Group will continue informing the work on the key challenges in attracting private investment to infrastructure. We agree to extend the mandate of the Global Infrastructure Hub to 2022. We call for coordination among current initiatives sponsored by MDBs and others to avoid duplication of efforts.
                    5. Against the backdrop of recent volatility in financial markets and capital flows, we continue our work as agreed in March, including on monitoring cross-border capital flows and examining available tools to help countries harness their benefits while also managing risks.
                    6. We reaffirm our commitment to further strengthening the global financial safety net with a strong, quota-based, and adequately resourced IMF at its centre. We are committed to concluding the 15th General Review of Quotas and agreeing on a new quota formula as a basis for a realignment of quota shares to result in increased shares for dynamic economies in line with their relative positions in the world economy and hence likely in the share of emerging market and developing countries as a whole, while protecting the voice and representation of the poorest members by the Spring Meetings and no later than the Annual Meetings of 2019.
                    7. We continue to monitor debt vulnerabilities in Low Income Countries (LICs) with concern. Accurate and comprehensive debt data are essential in ensuring sound borrowing and lending practices. We welcome again the Operational Guidelines for Sustainable Financing and we agree that building capacity in public financial management, strengthening domestic policy frameworks, and enhancing information sharing would help avoid new episodes of debt distress in LICs. We support ongoing work by the IMF, WBG and Paris Club on LICs debt. We will work towards enhancing debt transparency and sustainability, and improving sustainable financing practices by debtors and creditors, both official and private.
                    8. We are looking forward to the report by the G20 Eminent Persons Group on Global Financial Governance.
                    9. The financial system must remain open, resilient and supportive of growth. We remain committed to the full, timely and consistent implementation and finalisation of the post-crisis reforms, and the evaluation of their effects. We welcome progress on the evaluations by the FSB and standard setting bodies (SSBs) of the effects of the reforms on infrastructure financing and incentives to centrally clear over-the-counter derivatives and we expect the final results by the Leaders’ Summit. We look forward to the FSB’s continued progress on achieving resilient market-based finance. We continue to monitor and, if necessary, address emerging risks and vulnerabilities in the financial system.
                    10. Technological innovations, including those underlying crypto-assets, can deliver significant benefits to the financial system and the broader economy. Crypto-assets do, however, raise issues with respect to consumer and investor protection, market integrity, tax evasion, money laundering and terrorist financing. Crypto-assets lack the key attributes of sovereign currencies. While crypto- assets do not at this point pose a global financial stability risk, we remain vigilant. We welcome updates provided by the FSB and the SSBs and look forward to their further work to monitor the potential risks of crypto-assets, and to assess multilateral responses as needed. We reiterate our March commitments related to the implementation of the FATF standards and we ask the FATF to clarify in October 2018 how its standards apply to crypto-assets.
                    11. We support a globally fair, sustainable, and modern international tax system. We reaffirm the importance of the worldwide implementation of the Base Erosion and Profit Shifting package. We remain committed to work together to seek a consensus-based solution to address the impacts of the digitalisation of the economy on the international tax system by 2020, with an update in 2019. We call on all jurisdictions to sign and ratify the multilateral Convention on Mutual Administrative Assistance in Tax Matters. Jurisdictions scheduled to commence automatic exchange of financial account information for tax purposes in 2018 should ensure that all necessary steps are taken to meet this timeline. We support the OECD strengthened criteria to identify jurisdictions that have not satisfactorily implemented the internationally agreed tax transparency standards. Defensive measures will be considered against listed jurisdictions. We support enhanced tax certainty and tax capacity building, including through the Global Knowledge-Sharing Platform for Tax Administration under the umbrella of the Platform for Collaboration on Tax, and welcome the Latin America Academy for Tax Crime Investigation in Buenos Aires.
                    12. Mobilising sustainable finance and strengthening financial inclusion are important for global growth. We welcome the G20 Sustainable Finance Synthesis Report 2018 which presents voluntary options to support deployment of sustainable private capital. We endorse the G20 Financial Inclusion Policy Guide on Digitisation and Informality, which provides voluntary policy recommendations to facilitate digital financial services, taking into account country contexts. While significant progress has been made to lift financial inclusion through the Global Partnership for Financial Inclusion, we ask that it streamlines its work program and structure so it continues to support economic growth, financial stability and reducing inequality.
                    13. Our fight against terrorist financing, money laundering and proliferation financing continues. We call for full, effective and swift implementation of FATF standards. We call on FATF to further enhance its efforts to counter proliferation financing. We commit to further our individual and collective efforts to eliminate the financial networks supporting terrorist groups.

                    Communiqué Annex

                    Issues for Further Action

                    We welcome the MDB Infrastructure Cooperation Platform, which will report to the Infrastructure Working Group, and ask that advice be provided to us by the 2018 Leaders’ Summit on its activities to improve MDB project preparation, standardisation of guarantees and credit enhancement tools, and data availability. We call on the IWG to study the feasibility of new mechanisms to create portfolios of infrastructure assets, including brownfield infrastructure projects, that can be purchased by institutional investors.

                    We ask the OECD to report by the 2018 Leaders’ Summit on the number of jurisditions that are at risk of being considered as not having satisfactorily implemented internationally agreed tax transparency standards. We also ask the OECD to prepare a list by the 2019 Leaders’ Summit of the jurisdictions that have not yet sufficiently progressed toward a satisfactory level of implementation. We ask the OECD and the IMF to report to Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors in 2019 on progress made on tax certainty.

                    We reiterate our call for the Platform for Collaboration on Tax to develop its workplan on its commitments by the IMF/WBG Annual Meetings this year and provide a progress report in 2019.

                    We look forward to the report by the FSB on policy development under its action plan to assess and address the decline in correspondent banking relationships by the 2018 Leaders’ Summit. To ensure the GPFI continues to make a positive contribution to financial inclusion, we ask that it considers where its work could be rationalised and prioritised. We also ask the GPFI to consider its current structure with a view to more closely aligning it with other working arrangements in the G20 finance track. This includes combining the work of the four GPFI sub groups into one working group, appointment of working group co-chairs and changing its membership arrangements. We expect the the GPFI to provide a roadmap by the Leaders’ Summit in December on the path to achieving the requested changes in 2020.

                    We look forward to the implementation of the outcomes of the April Paris Conference on Counter Terrorist Financing.

                    Reports and Documents Received

                    Global Economy

                    • G20 Surveillance Note, IMF

                    Future of Work

                    • G20 Menu of Policy Options for the Future of Work, FWG
                    • Future of Work: Measurement and Policy Challenges, IMF
                    • Tax Policies for Inclusive Growth in a Changing World, OECD
                    • Maintaining Competitive Conditions in the Era of Digitalisation, OECD
                    • Financing Social Protection and Lifelong Learning for the Future of Work: Fiscal Aspects and Policy Options, ILO
                    • Policy Options to Support Innovation in Developing Countries, WBG

                    Infrastructure

                    • G20 Principles for the Infrastructure Project Preparation Phase, G20, IWG 3
                    • G20/OECD/WB Stocktake of Tools and Instruments Related to Infrastructure as an Asset Class, Background Document, OECD and WBG
                    • G20/OECD Effective Approaches for Implementing the G20/OECD High-Level Principles on SME Financing, OECD

                    Financial Regulation

                    • Evaluation of the Effects of Reforms on Infrastructure Finance Consultative Document, FSB
                    • Evaluation of Incentives to Centrally Clear OTC Derivatives Draft Executive Summary of Consultative Document, FSB
                    • Cyber Lexicon Consultative Document, FSB
                    • Crypto-Assets Report on Work by the FSB and Standard-Setting Bodies, FSB

                    International Financial Architecture

                    • IMF Institutional View in Practice, IMF
                    • The OECD Code of Liberalisation of Capital Movements: Update on Developments, OECD
                    • Joint Note on Strengthening Public Debt Transparency — the Role of the IMF and the World Bank, IMF and WBG
                    • Joint Note on Improving Public Debt Recording, Monitoring and Reporting Capacity in Low and Lower Middle-Income Countries, IMF and WBG
                    • Joint Note Updating on the Implementation of the G20 Principles for Effective Coordination between the IMF and MDBs, IMF, WBG, IADB

                    International Taxation

                    • Secretary-General Report to Finance Ministers, OECD, Buenos Aires, Argentina, July 2018

                    Anti-Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing

                    • Report to Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, FATF, July 2018

                    Financial Inclusion

                    • G20 Policy Guide. Digitisation and Informality: Harnessing Digital Financial Inclusion for Individuals and MSMEs in the Informal Economy, GPFI
                    • G20 Digital Identity Onboarding, WBG
                    • Achieving Development and Acceptance of an Open and Inclusive Digital Payments Infrastructure, BTCA
                    • Use of Alternative Data to Enhance Credit Reporting to Enable Access to Digital Financial Services by Individuals and SMEs operating in the Informal Economy, ICCR
                    • Data Protection and Privacy for Alternative Data, WBG
                    • G20/OECD Policy Guidance — Financial Consumer Protection Approaches in the Digital Age, OECD
                    • G20/OECD INFE Policy Guidance — Digitalisation and Financial Literacy, OECD

                    Sustainable Finance

                    • G20 Sustainable Finance Synthesis Report — 2018, Sustainable Finance Study Group

                    Japan PM Abe: Trade restrictions will not benefit anyone

                      Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said today that “imports of our nation’s automobiles and auto parts have never damaged U.S. national security and will not do so in the future.”

                      And, he added “trade restrictions will not benefit anyone, and we will keep explaining that to the U.S. and work closely with them to ensure those tariffs are not imposed.”

                      It seems like Abe only refer to the threat of auto tariffs. The already-in-effect steel and aluminum tariffs are forgotten? Or, are Japanese steel products security threat to the US?

                      EU Barnier: Brexit cannot be justification for creating more bureaucracy

                        EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said after meeting other EU ministers that there are “several elements” in UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit white paper that “open the way to a constructive discussion regarding the political declaration on our future relationship”.

                        However, he also noted that he had put many questions back to the US for clarity on whether the proposals are workable. And he warned that “Brexit cannot be and will not be a justification for creating more bureaucracy.”

                        At this point, there is still no agreement on how to avoid a hard Irish border. Barnier said “this requires a legally operative backstop, an all weather insurance policy, to address the issues of Ireland and Northern Ireland. All 27 member states insist on this.”

                        Trump blasts EU, China and Fed again

                          Trump continues to blast the EU, China and even Fed (well of course not Russia, nor North Korea) with his tweets today

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                          For those who’re new to the markets, the 2007-2008 global financial crisis started with the bursting of the subprime mortgage bubbles in the US. Fed cut policy rate to 0-0.25% in December 2008. And in late November that year, Fed started QE1. In 2011, Fed started QE2. And in 2012, Fed started QE3.

                          ECB cut the main policy rate to 0.25% much later in 2013 and then subsequently to 0.00% in 2016. While ECB used the Securities Markets Programme since 2010, QE is seen as formally started in 2015.

                          The current situation of US rasing interest rate is a result of the US leading the way in loosening monetary policy to counter the problem of theirs.

                          And, would Kudlow or Navarro or give him a lesson that Fed’s rate hikes are still not tightening, but policy normalization, or removal of accommodations. The US economy has been enjoying the privileges of ultra loose monetary policy and it’s time to treat it as it should be treated.

                          And if the Fed doesn’t normalize its policies during a time when the economy is doing so well, what is left for Fed is save the economy when the next crisis comes?

                          The above are some common sense indeed. But for those who choose to ignore, our response is like someone who said this week — “where do we start?”

                          Dollar dives as Senator Hatch threatens Trump with legislative confrontation for tariffs policies

                            Dollar suffers steep selloff in the early US session as WSJ reports that Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch sent a letter to Trump requesting him to reconsider his trade policies. And Hatch warned that GOP senators may be ready to risk a legislative confrontation with Trump if he doesn’t reverse course. Hatch is a seven-term Utah Republican Senator who’s seen as a reliable Trump ally.

                            As we pointed out before, Dollar has been benefiting from Trump’s confrontation trade war threats. It remains to be seen if it’s true. But it looks like no trade war, no dollar rally.

                            Canadian Dollar jumps on stellar retail sales, CPI accelerated

                              Canadian Dollar surges sharply in early US session after stellar retail sales data. Headline retail sales rose 2.0% mom in May versus expectation of 0.0% mom. That’s more than offset -1.2% mom contraction in April. Ex-auto sales also jumped 1.4% mom, well above expectation of 0.5% mom.

                              Headline CPI accelerated to 2.5% yoy in June as expected. CPI core common was unchanged at 1.9% yoy. CPI core median rose 0.1% to 2.0% yoy. CPI core trim rose 0.1% to 2.0% yoy.

                              Now, it really looks like BoC was correct to hike and stays hawkish.

                              German Merkel: Can’t rely on the superpower of the US

                                German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in a news conference that the Germany “can’t rely on the superpower of the United States. And the auto tariffs are “a real threat to the prosperity of many in the world”. Also, the “usual framework” of the world is “under strong pressure at the moment” before of the US. Though, she maintain that “transatlantic working relationship, including with the U.S. president, is crucial for us and I will carry on cultivating it”.

                                For the EU, Merkel said it’s in a “transformation process”. And, “it recognizes the seriousness of the situation, but it hasn’t yet been resolved whether we are going to rise to the challenges quickly enough.” She pointed to the “big economic challenge, and one day certainly also military, from the strengthening of China”. And, the EU must also deal with the relationship with Russia.

                                Trump threatens to impose tariffs on all Chinese imports, full interview

                                  Trump spoke with CNBC anchor Joe Kernen on an interview yesterday at the White House. There he complained again the the US has been “ripped off by China for a long time”. And he’s “ready to go to 500”, referring to tariffs on USD 500B of Chinese imports. That’s nearly all of the USD 505.5B Chinese imports in 2017. And he pledged that he’s “not doing this for politics” but “to do the right thing for the country”.

                                  Here is the full interview:

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                                  White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow laid the blame on Chinese President Xi Jinping again. He said, “the problem here is Xi. He doesn’t want to move, and they’ve offered the U.S. absolutely … no options regarding the issue of (intellectual property) theft and forced technology transfer.”

                                  Yuan rebounds on suspected intervention, Shanghai SSE regains 2800

                                    The onshore USD/CNY breached 6.81 earlier today as selling in Yuan continued. But on suspected intervention by state owned banks, USD/CNY quickly dropped through 6.8 handle and it’s now back at 6.78.

                                    The offshore USD/CNH also followed and dropped through 6.8 too.

                                    The news and the development helped lifted the Shanghai SSE composite back into positive territory. It’s now trading above 2% and is back above 2800. It’s also helped lifted Hong Kong HSI by more than 400 pts back above 28200.

                                    Yen higher as markets turn risk averse, USD/JPY in lengthier consolidation

                                      Yen trades broadly higher today as markets turn into risk aversion mode. Major US indices ended in red overnight, with DOW down -0.53%, S&P 500 down -0.40% and NASDAQ down -0.37%. Selloff continues in Asia with Nikkei trading down -0.64% at the time of writing, HK HSI is down -0.56%, and China SSE composite is also down slightly by -0.12%. Singapore Strait Times continue to defy gravity, though, and is up 0.48%.

                                      USD/JPY dropped sharply after hitting 113.17 and the breach of 112.21 support suggests short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Deeper pull back is now in favor and the consolidation could last longer even though for now, downside is expected to be contained by 111.39 resistance turned support. In our weekly report, there was a position trading strategy of buying USD/JPY on dip to 111.85 retracement level. That was not filled before USD/JPY’s break of 112.79. We’ve cancelled this order and we’re now waiting for a deeper pull back to go long. Stay tuned.

                                      Dollar rally halted on Trump’s senseless comments on Fed

                                        Dollar’s rally was took to a halt by Trump’s verbal interference on Fed’s policies. Trump criticized in a CNBC interview that “I don’t like all of this work that we’re putting into the economy and then I see rates going up.” And he complained that “because we go up and every time you go up they want to raise rates again … I am not happy about it.” Trump also added Fed’s rate hikes and strength of US Dollar are putting the US at a disadvantage. Though, he added that “at the same time I’m letting them do what they feel is best” and Fed chair Jerome Powell is a “very good man”.

                                        There are criticism on Trump’s comments as being intervention on Fed’s independence. But so far, Powell has given enough confidence to the market of carrying out his job in a “strictly nonpolitical way”. What matters most to some economists is that Trump’s comments just do not make sense. The US economy is on course for near 4% GDP growth in Q2, lowest jobless claims in nearly 50 years and inflation at around target. The strength of Dollar is merely reflecting strong fundamentals.

                                        And remember that Trump’s top economic adviser Larry Kudlow just said earlier this week that “it’s possible that a real growth cycle is in front of us for the next four, five or six years.” And, Kudlow added that “there’s no recession in sight.” So, is it time to remove monetary policy accommodation to, at least, bring interest rate back to “neutral’ level?

                                        Dollar index edged through 95.53 resistance to 95.65 yesterday but quickly retreated. The rise from 88.25 should be resuming but momentum is no convincing yet. As long as 93.71 support holds, we’d expect further rally to 61.8% retracement of 103.82 to 88.25 at 97.87. However, a break of 93.71 will indicate a deeper and lengthier correction is underway.

                                        Japan core CPI rose 0.8% yoy but mainly driven by energy

                                          Released from Japan, the all items CPI rose 0.1% mom, 0.7% yoy in June. Core CPI, all item less fresh food, rose 0.1% mom, 0.8% yoy. Core core CPI, all item less fresh food and energy, has indeed dropped -0.1% mom and rose 0.2% yoy.

                                          The set of data should be rather disappointing for the BoJ. The decline in core core CPI suggests that inflation was mainly driven by the surge in energy costs. There wasn’t much of press pressure elsewhere. It’s remains a long road to meet its 2% inflation target. And there is no light on when the central could withdraw the massive stimulus.