Eurozone Sentix rose to 1.3, expectations jumped to new record high

    Eurozone Sentix Investor Sentiment turned positive to 1.3 in January, up from -2.7, but missed expectation of 2.0. That’s nonetheless the highest since February 2020. Current situation index rose to -26.5, up from -30.3, highest since March 2020. Expectation index rose to 33.5, up from 29.3, an all-time high. Sentix said, “the main reason for the expectations, despite the renewed lockdown ex-tension in Germany, is probably the high hope for a successful vaccination campaign.”

    “Nevertheless, we do not see the development so positively,” it added. “This is because the assessment of the situation has been showing a much flatter trend than the stormy expectations for months now. There is a potential for a temporary sobering up here, because investors seem to underestimate the danger that the economies are more damaged than the data seem to reflect and that this will only become visible when the restrictions are actually lifted.”

    Full release here.

    EU Juncker: Doing everything possible to get a Brexit agreement

      In an interview with German newspaper Augsburger Allgemeine, European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker said he and chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier are “doing everything possible to get an agreement” on Brexit. He warned that “if we don’t succeed in the end, the responsibility would lie exclusively on the British side.”

      Juncker also said that disorderly Brexit could greatly complicate negotiations on future relationship. He said: “We will want to and need to seal a free trade agreement. But that won’t happen just like that, as some in Britain imagine. Some of the trade deals we sealed in my term of office took many years to reach.”

      BoE’s Haskel defends focus on inflation persistence without regret

        BoE MPC member Jonathan Haskel emphasized the importance of caution when interpreting UK’s recent decline in headline inflation to 4% in December. While acknowledging this positive trend, he stressed the necessity of focusing on more enduring aspects of inflation.

        “I’m not going to apologize for banging on about persistence because I think we’re right to,” he asserted. Particularly concerning to Haskel are the underlying measures of price growth, especially within the services sector. Despite the headline inflation drop, these measures have recently plateaued at an annual rate of approximately 6.5%, a level Haskel considers still too high.

        “The signs that we’ve seen thus far are encouraging. I don’t think we’ve seen quite enough signs yet,” Haskel remarked. “But if we accumulate more evidence on persistence, then by the very logic I’ve just set out, I’d be happy to change my vote.”

        Haskel, who supported another rate hike in the last MPC meeting, described his decision as “finely balanced,” highlighting his desire for more time to assess the inflationary trend’s durability.

        UK PMI composite fell to 46.0, heightened recession risk supports BoE pause

          UK PMI Manufacturing sector had a slight uptick in September, moving from 43.0 to 44.2, surpassing expectations set at 43.0. Services PMI disappointed, recording a drop from 49.5 to 47.2, underperforming against the forecasted 49.0, marking a 32-month low. Consequently, PMI Composite followed suit, declining from 48.6 to 46.8, also registering a 32-month low.

          Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, stated, “The disappointing PMI survey results for September mean a recession is looking increasingly likely in the UK.”

          The current PMI data aligns with a potential GDP contraction of over -0.4% on a quarterly basis. Williamson mentioned, “September’s downturn is the steepest since the height of the global financial crisis in early 2009 barring only the pandemic lockdown months.”

          A significant point of apprehension in the inflation framework remains wage growth. However, with the survey indicating the most significant employment decline since 2009, wage negotiation leverage appears to be dwindling swiftly.

          Williamson believes the unsettling indications of heightened recession risk coupled with diminishing inflationary pressures are likely to have “added to calls to halt rate hikes” by BoE.

          Full UK PMI release here.

          New Zealand ANZ business confidence plunged to -19.4, coronavirus taking a heavy toll

            New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence dropped sharply from -13.2 to -19.4 in February. Confidence is worst in Agriculture at -63.6, and best in construction at 0. Activity Outlook index dropped from 17.2 to 12.0. Agriculture also scored the worst outlook at -30.3, with construction best at 21.9.

            ANZ noted, “it is clear that the human and economic damage being wrought by the devastating COVID-19 outbreak in China, and now in other countries, is taking a heavy toll on sentiment and confidence in the primary sector and manufacturers already”.

            Fed George: We have got to get to neutral really fast

              In a WSJ interview, Kansas City Fed Esther George said that with inflation at at 7.5% in January, and the benchmark interest a rate near zero, Fed’s policy is “out of sync”. But she said it’s too soon to say if Fed should hike by 50bps in March. She also hasn’t form a view on how much interest rate has to go up this year.

              “What we have to do is be systematic,” George said. “It is always preferable to go gradual…Given where we are, the uncertainties around the pandemic effects and other things, I’d be hard-pressed to say we have got to get to neutral really fast.”

              “If we get to March and the data says we should be talking about that [a half-point rate increase], I’m sure that will be in play, but I’m not sure that is the answer, per se, to how we get there,” George added.

              She also dismissed the idea of holding an emergency FOMC meeting to raise interest rate. “I don’t know that I’d call the markets reacting to data an emergency here, because frankly, in my own forecast of looking where inflation was moving, the print was not a surprise,” she said.

              France PMI composite finalized at 56.6, economic recovery has legs to continue through Q3

                France PMI Services was finalized at 56.8 in July, down from June’s 57.8. PMI Composite was finalized at 56.6, down from July’s 57.4. Markit said robust demand supported strong activity growth. Backlogs rose at joint-fastest pace since April 2011. Output price inflation hit decade high.

                Joe Hayes, Senior Economist at IHS Markit said: “Although the headline PMI dipped slightly, the data is consistent with activity growing at a strong pace, much like we saw in the previous two months since pandemic-related restrictions have been peeled back. Pent-up demand is considerable, and firms are struggling to meet it, as evidenced by one of the strongest increases in backlogs of work for a decade. This is a good thing in the short-term as it means the economic recovery will have legs to continue through the third quarter and hopefully beyond.

                “That said, current conditions have handed businesses an incredible amount of pricing power. While inflationary pressures are not quite as alarming as they are in the manufacturing sector, there’s clear spillover effects from the severe supply chain disruptions, as firms cited this as a reason behind July’s 34-month high in input costs. In response, firms upped their fees to the greatest extent in a decade. If the price rises we’re seeing remain sticky, inflation will no longer be transitory.”

                Full release here.

                China Xi in Spain, pledges to open markets access to foreign investments

                  Chinese President Xi Jinping is visiting Spain today and he’s supposed to meet Trump later in the week in Argentina as sideline of G20 summit. Xi repeated his messages to the Spanish upper house of parliament that China planned to import USD 10T worth of goods over the next five years.

                  Also, Xi pledged that “China will make efforts to open, even more, its doors to the exterior world and we will make efforts to streamline access to markets in the areas of investment and protect intellectual property.”

                  New Zealand GDP grew 2.8% qoq in Q2, well above expectation

                    New Zealand GDP grew 2.8% qoq in Q2, well above expectation of 1.2% qoq. Growth was led by service industries, which rose 2.8% qoq. Primary industries rose 5.0% qoq. Goods producing industries rose 1.3% qoq.

                    “The June 2021 quarter experienced fewer COVID-19 restrictions than previous quarters affected by COVID-19. Many industries experienced activity at or above pre-COVID-19 levels, while some remained below,” national accounts senior manager Paul Pascoe said.

                    Full release here.

                    BoJ stands pat, Kataoka dissented again, calling for further easing

                      BoJ announced to keep monetary policy unchanged by 8-1 vote. Short term interest rate is held at -0.1%. The central bank will also continue with JGB purchases to keep 10 year yield at around 0%. The current pace of JPY 80T annual purchase is also maintained

                      BoJ also maintained the pledge to continue with the “Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Yield Curve Control” until year-on-year core CPI stay above 2% target in a “stable manner”.

                      Goushi Kataoka dissented again. It’s noted in the statement that “taking account of risk factors through fiscal 2020 such as the consumption tax hike and a possible economic downturn in the United States”, Kataoka believed it’s desirable to “further strengthen monetary easing”.

                      Here is BoJ’s full statement.

                      US ISM manufacturing dropped to 59.5, corresponds to 4.7% annualized GDP growth

                        US ISM Manufacturing dropped from 60.6 to 59.5 in July, below expectation of 60.8. ISM said “the past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Manufacturing PMI for July (59.5 percent) corresponds to a 4.7-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,”

                        Looking at some more details, new orders dropped from 66.0 to 64.9. Production dropped from 60.8 to 58.4. Employment rose from 3.0 to 52.9. Supplier deliveries dropped from -2.6 to 72.5. Prices dropped -6.4 to 85.7.

                        Full release here.

                        US initial jobless claims rose to 214k, above expectation of 212k

                          US initial jobless claims rose 4k to 214k in the week ending October 12, slightly above expectation of 212k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 1k to 214.75k. Continuing claims dropped -10k to 1.679m in the week ending October 5. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 3.5k to 1.670m.

                          Full release here.

                          US initial jobless claims down -10k to 230k

                            US initial jobless claims fell -10k to 230k in the week ending August 19, better than expectation of 241k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 2k to 238k.

                            Continuing claims dropped -9k to 1702k in the week ending August 12. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 6k to 1697k.

                            Full US jobless claims release here.

                            Canada employment rose 62k in Nov, well above expectations

                              Canada employment rose 62k in November, well above expectation of 22.0k. Unemployment rate dropped to 8.5%, down from 8.9%, much better than expectation of 8.9%.

                              Full release here.

                              Gold breaches 1315 as rebound accelerates, heading back to 1346.7 resistance

                                Gold’s strong rally since last week firstly suggests resumption of rebound from 1266.26. More importantly, it argues that corrective fall from 1346.71 has completed at 1266.26 already. Further rise is now in favor back to retest 1346.71 first.

                                The strong support from 55 week EMA is taken as a rather bullish signal. It’s also raising the change that gold would finally overcome long term fibonacci resistance of 38.2% retracement of 1920.70 (2011 high) to 1046.37 (2015 low) at 1380.36. If that happens, it could also markets bearish reversal in Dollar for medium term term. But of course, gold has to take out above mentioned 1346.71 near term resistance first. Let’s see how it goes.

                                ECB Rehn urged policy framwork rethink as interdependence of economy and inflation weakened

                                  ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn urged the central bank to rethink it’s policy framework after failing to lift inflation back to target. One explanation for the failure could is that “trust in central banks’ ability to influence the inflation rate may have eroded.”

                                  He noted that “the interdependence of economic activity and inflationary pressures seems to have weakened in recent years.” And, “should this phenomenon prove to be lasting, it would imply a weakening of the impact monetary policy exerts on inflation via aggregate demand.”

                                  But he also emphasized that “this would not mean questioning the primary objective of price stability”. Instead, the policy rethink would “entail a comprehensive review of the guiding principles, key assumptions and tools used for the implementation of monetary policy”.

                                  New Zealand ANZ business confidence falls to 11.2, inflation pressures ease

                                    New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence index dropped from 14.9 to 11.2 in May, signaling a decline in business sentiment. Outlook for own activity also decreased from 14.3 to 11.8.

                                    Cost expectations saw a reduction 76.7 to 72.6, the lowest since February 2021. Wage expectations ticked down slightly from 75.5 to 75.4. Profit expectations fell sharply, from -9.8 to -15.3, and pricing intentions decreased from 46.9 to 41.6, the lowest level since December 2020. Inflation expectations edged down from 3.76% to 3.59%.

                                    According to ANZ, “This month’s Business Outlook survey makes for grim reading, but it also provides confirmation that inflation pressures are waning.”

                                    They indicated that significant progress in reducing non-tradable inflation is anticipated, which, barring any unforeseen inflationary spikes, should restore RBNZ’s confidence. This would potentially allow for future rate cuts, signaling a cautiously optimistic outlook on inflation control and economic stability.

                                    Full ANZ business confidence release here.

                                    Chinese Yuan in free fall on coronavirus outbreak

                                      USD/CNH surges sharply as offshore Yuan is in suffering heavy selloff on China’s coronavirus outbreak. Rebound from 6.8452 is now targeting channel resistance (7.0135). Decline from 7.1953 high is seen as a corrective move, which might has completed at 6.8452 already. Sustained break of the channel resistance should confirm this case and bring retest of 7.1953 high. Nevertheless, rejection by the channel resistance will retain near term bearishness. Break of 6.9209 will target a test on 6.8452 low instead.

                                      Johnson confirms he’ll vote for Brexit Withdrawal Agreement

                                        UK MP Boris Johnson’s tweets today confirmed he will vote for the Withdrawal Agreement even if it’s “very painful”. Ans in short, “a bad deal that we have a chance to improve in the next stage of negotiations must be better than those alternatives” of “worse version of Brexit or losing Brexit altogether.”

                                        Attorney General Geoffrey Cox said in the Brexit debates in the Commons that any Brexit deal will require Withdrawal Agreement to be approved today. And it’s the last chance for MPs to secure UK’s “legal right” to an Article 50 extension until May 22.

                                        Cox also said the government will agree to legislate to ensure MPs can vote to set the negotiating mandate for the next phase of the Brexit talks. Some MPs indeed see the next phase of trade agreement and future relationship as the most important.

                                         

                                        Japan Motegi to conclude trade deal with UK today

                                          Japan Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi indicated he will speak to UK Trade Minister Liz Truss today to conclude the post-Brexit trade agreement. That, if agreed, would come just before Prime Minister Shinzo Abe steps down on September 15 for health reason.

                                          The bilateral trade agreement is expected to largely replicate the Japan-EU agreement. UK expects to deal to increase trade with Japan by around GBP 15B a year in the long run.

                                          Released from Japan, BSI large manufacturing conditions index rose to 0.1 in Q3, much improvement from -52.3. PPI picked up to -0.5% yoy in August, from -0.9% yoy.