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UK PMI construction rose to 55.8, impressive turnaround of the construction sector

    By
    ActionForex.com
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    UK PMI construction rose sharply to 55.8 in July, up from 53.1 and beat expectation of 52.8. Markit noted the robust and accelerated rise in construction activity Housing building expanded as the fastest pace since December 2016. Also, rates of new order growth and job creation gain momentum.

    Tim Moore, Associate Director at IHS Markit and author of the IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI®:

    “July data reveal an impressive turnaround in the performance of the UK construction sector, with output growth the strongest for just over one year. While the recent rebound in construction work has been flattered by its recovery from a low base earlier in 2018, there are also signs that underlying demand conditions have picked up this summer. New business volumes expanded at the strongest rate since May 2017, while workforce numbers increased to the greatest extent for just over two-and-a-half years.

    “House building was the bright spot for construction growth in July, alongside a stronger upturn in commercial development projects. Residential activity and commercial work both increased at the sharpest pace since December 2015, which contrasted with another subdued month for civil engineering.

    “UK construction companies experienced substantial cost pressures in July, driven by rising fuel bills and higher prices for steel-intensive items. Meanwhile, supply chains struggled to keep up with greater demand for construction products and materials, which resulted in the greatest lengthening of delivery times since July 2017.”

    Full release here.

    Also release in European session, Eurozone PPI rose 0.4% mom, 3.6% yoy in June. Swiss PMI manufacturing rose 0.3 to 61.9 in July. Swiss retail sales rose 0.3% yoy in June. Swiss SECO consumer confidence dropped sharply to -7 in July.

    DIHK: US-China trade conflicts have huge impact on German companies

      By
      ActionForex.com
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      A survey by the German DHIK Chambers of Industry and Commerce warned that escalating US-China trade conflict is already hurting German companies.

      41% of German companies doing business in China said they were affected by higher tariffs when exporting to the US. And 46% said highest cost importing from the US.

      57% of German companies doing business in the US said there were negative effects exporting to China. 75% reported higher costs when importing from China.

      DIHK trade chief Volker Treier said “the dangerous trade dispute between the U.S. and China is also hitting German companies doing business in the two countries.” He added, “the impact is huge: nearly half of the imports from German companies are directly or indirectly affected by the new tariffs, for example because they source raw materials or components from the other country.” He also warned that “a further escalation of the dispute would be a threat to world trade as a whole.”

      10 year yield regains 3% on supply pressure

        By
        ActionForex.com
        -

        US 10 year yield regained 3% handle overnight on supply driven pressure. Trump’s Treasury Department announced to raise long term debt issuance to USD 78B this quarter, up USD 5B. More importantly, that’s the third consecutive quarterly increase and there is no end in sight. The act is for coping with the procyclical tax cut of the Republicans and Trump’s expanded fiscal spending. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the fiscal deficit will rise to USD 1T by 2020.

        10 year yield gained 0.039 overnight to close at 3.003. That came after hitting as high as 3.016 and breached 3.009 resistance. The development affirmed the view that rebound form 2.759 is in progress for retesting 3.115 high. But at this point, we’re not seeing enough momentum for a break out yet.

        Similarly, 30 year yield hit as high as 3.147 before closing at 3.127, up 0.044. Breach of 3.140 resistance also affirms the bullish view that rise from 2.925 is in progress for 3.247 key resistance.

        NAFTA talks progressed on auto content rules

          By
          ActionForex.com
          -

          Mexican head of the trade and NAFTA office Guillermo Malpica said yesterday that the US had “started showing more flexibility last week” on NAFTA renegotiation. And, he added that “we are getting close” to an agreement on one of the sticky point, autos rule of origin.

          Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo also indicated earlier there was a shift in the focus of the debate in auto contents. He said “now what we are talking about is that a percentage of what is made in North America would be made in a high-salary zone … What does this mean? That clearly, within the component of 100 percent of an automobile made in (the NAFTA zone), a percentage, it could be about 35 to 40 percent, is made in a high-salary zone.”

          Canadian trade negotiator Colin Bird also said in an auto industry conference in Michigan that there was progress on auto content rules. He added that “harnessing the power of trade agreements to promote higher wages is the kind of policy all three countries can get behind.”

          However, another sticky point of the sunset clause is not cleared yet. Bird also warned that “any one country being able to hold the agreement hostage every five years does not provide the certainty” for businesses.

          US to impose 25% tariffs on $200B in Chinese goods, joined forces with like-minded partners

            By
            ActionForex.com
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            The US Trade Representative formally said in a statement that it’s considering to raise the proposed tariffs on USD 200B in Chinese imports from 10% to 25%. In the statement, it said “the Trump Administration continues to urge China to stop its unfair practices, open its market, and engage in true market competition.” And it emphasized that the US has been “very clear about the specific changes China should undertake” But China “regrettably” responded by ” illegally retaliated against U.S. workers, farmers, ranchers and businesses.”

            Also, USTR Robert Lighthizer said “the increase in the possible rate of the additional duty is intended to provide the Administration with additional options to encourage China to change its harmful policies and behavior and adopt policies that will lead to fairer markets and prosperity for all of our citizens.”

            More importantly, the USTR specifically said that the US has “joined forces with like-minded partners around the world to address unfair trade practices such as forced technology transfer and intellectual property theft, and we remain ready to engage with China in negotiations that could resolve these and other problems detailed in our Section 301 report.”

            Full statement here.

            Dollar stays mixed after FOMC rate decision

              By
              ActionForex.com
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              Dollar is trading mixed in Asian session so far as market showed little reaction to FOMC.

              The greenback is also trading down for the week against all but Yen and New Zealand Dollar.

              Fed kept federal funds rates unchanged at 1.75-2.00%. Assessment on economic activity was upgraded from “solid” to strong”. Also, “household spending and business fixed investment spending have grown strongly.”

              As priced in by Fed fund futures, the chance of two more hikes by December to 2.25-2.50% has firmed up again this week to around 67.6%, from 65.5% a week ago.

              Some suggested readings on Fed:

              Fed left federal funds rate unchanged at 1.75-2.00%, full statement.

                By
                ActionForex.com
                -

                No surprise from Fed. Below is the full statement.

                Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

                Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Household spending and business fixed investment have grown strongly. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy remain near 2 percent. Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

                Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term. Risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced.

                In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1-3/4 to 2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

                In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

                Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Jerome H. Powell, Chairman; John C. Williams, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Esther L. George; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles.

                US ISM manufacturing dropped to 58.1, respondents overwhelmingly concerned about tariffs

                  By
                  ActionForex.com
                  -

                  US ISM manufacturing dropped to 58.1 in July, down from 60.2, missed expectation of 59.3. Price paid component dropped to 73.2, down fro 76. and missed expectation of 75.5. Employment component rose 0.5 to 56.5.

                  Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee Timothy R. Fiore said that:

                  • “Comments from the panel reflect continued expanding business strength.
                  • “Demand remains strong, with the New Orders Index at 60 percent or above for the 15th straight month, and the Customers’ Inventories Index remaining low.
                  • “The Backlog of Orders Index continued to expand, but at lower levels.
                  • “Production and employment continues to expand in spite of labor and material shortages.
                  • ” Inputs — expressed as supplier deliveries, inventories and imports — had expansion increases, due primarily to negative supply chain issues, but at easing levels compared to the prior month.
                  • “Lead-time extensions, steel and aluminum disruptions, supplier labor issues, and transportation difficulties continue.
                  • ” Export orders expanded, but at lower levels.
                  • ” Price pressure remains strong, but the index softened for the second straight month.
                  • “Demand remains robust, but the nation’s employment resources and supply chains continue to struggle.
                  • “Respondents are again overwhelmingly concerned about how tariff-related activity, including reciprocal tariffs, will continue to affect their business,”

                  Some quotes from some respondents:

                  • “Global demand is still strong. Working on contingency plans for the Chinese tariffs. We will probably onshore most of that material. Labor availability is becoming an issue.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
                  • “As a result of new tariffs on materials to/from China, we are taking measures to move impacted materials ahead of effective dates, which in some cases is resulting in holding higher inventories.” (Chemical Products)
                  • “Steel cost increases are causing a lot of negotiations. The increases are real and will affect costs beginning in the third quarter of 2018.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
                  • “Reviewing the business case for importing manufactured parts from China, as new tariffs will lead to increased costs that we will pass along to our domestic customers.” (Transportation Equipment)
                  • “The steel tariffs are a concern to us. We have already seen steel prices increase due to the threat of the tariffs and are seeing kickback from our customers due to the higher prices. We are concerned that the end customer will go to off shore to purchase the finished product.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
                  • “Tariffs are [resulting in] customs inspection-time increases on imported raw materials from China. Logistics seems to be improving, but we are seeing a [continuing] tight chemical bulk tanker market.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)
                  • “The so-called trade war is now taking its toll on business activity, resulting in substantial reductions to new export orders. China has all but stopped taking orders, causing inventories to build up in the U.S. Domestic business is steady. However, it is too small to carry the load that export markets have retreated from. As a result, we will be meeting as a corporation next week to recast our second-half sales and revenue projections.” (Wood Products)

                  Full release here.

                  US ADP grew 216k, tariffs have yet to materially impact jobs

                    By
                    ActionForex.com
                    -

                    US ADP report showed private sector jobs grew 216k in July, above expectation of 186k. Prior month’s figure was also revised up from 177k to 181k.

                    Commenting in the release, Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute, said “the labor market is on a roll with no signs of a slowdown in sight.” And, “nearly every industry posted strong gains and small business hiring picked up.”

                    Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market is booming, impacted by the deficit-financed tax cuts and increases in government spending. Tariffs have yet to materially impact jobs, but the multinational companies shed jobs last month, signaling the threat.”

                    Full release here.

                    Into US session: Dollar firm ahead of FOMC, Yen lifted as Chinese stocks tumble on trade war

                      By
                      ActionForex.com
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                      Entering into US session, Sterling is trading as the strongest one for today, followed by Dollar then Yen. Both Australia Dollar and New Zealand Dollar are the weakest one.

                      Dollar will be a major focus in US session with FOMC rate decision scheduled. But we’re not expecting any surprise from Fed. The central bank is on course for two more rate hikes this year, one in September and another in December. There is no press conference today. Focus will be quickly turned to minutes to be released later on August 22. Instead, ADP employment and ISM manufacturing to be released earlier in the session could be more market moving.

                      More on FOMC:

                      Strength in 10 year JGB yield, which closed up 0.081 at 0.130, could be a factor for Yen’s strength. But considering that Aussie and Kiwi are the weakest, we’d believe that risk aversion is a larger factor. Plus, Yen is also paring back some of the post BoJ selloff only. It’s still the weakest one for the week.

                      Chinese stocks’ reaction to the heat up in US-China trade war is immediate. The Shanghai SSE dropped -1.80% to close at 2824.53 today. The closed below 2844.19 resistance turned support suggests that recent rebound from 2691.02 has completed at 2915.29 already, ahead of 55 day EMA. Also, the index is kept well inside medium term falling channel. Focus is back on 2753.83 support. Break there will resume the medium term fall from 3857.03 for a take on 2638.30 key support (2016 low). Considering there is no sign of backing from on Trump’s side, and EU has already agreed to join force against China’s improper practices, this 2638.30 level is very vulnerable.

                      Sterling’s strength could be explained by not-too-bad UK PMI manufacturing, which dropped -0.3 to 54.0. It’s a respectable number. BoE is widely expected to raise Bank Rate by 25bps to 0.75% tomorrow. Sterling’s fate will depend on whether that will be a “dovish hike”.

                      Suggested reading on BoE and UK:

                       

                       

                      Low level Chinese official warned US blackmail won’t have an effect

                        By
                        ActionForex.com
                        -

                        In response to news that Trump is considering to slap 25% tariffs on USD 200B in Chinese imports, China Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang warned that “US pressure and blackmail won’t have an effect.” And Geng added “China will inevitably take countermeasures and we will resolutely protect our legitimate rights.”

                        It’s kind of boring rhetoric. And firstly, it’s said in a regular press briefing. Secondly, it’s by a low level official only. There’s no need to get too excited until we see exactly how China is going to retaliate.

                        UK PMI manufacturing dropped to 54.2, performance becoming more uneven

                          By
                          ActionForex.com
                          -

                          UK PMI manufacturing dropped to 54.0 in July, down from 54.3 and missed expectation of 54.2. Markit noted weaker increases in both output and new orders. Also, intermediate goods production falls for first time in two years.

                          Rob Dobson, Director at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey:

                          “UK manufacturing started the third quarter on a softer footing, with rates of expansion in output and new orders losing steam. The upturn in the sector has eased noticeably since the back-end of 2017, meaning that manufacturing has failed to provide any meaningful boost to headline GDP growth through the year-so-far.

                          “The July survey data also shows that the performance of the sector is becoming more uneven, with solid output growth in the investment goods industry being largely offset by intermediate goods production contracting for the first time in two years. As the intermediate goods sector supplies other manufacturers, taken alongside weaker growth of total new orders and a drop in business confidence to a 21-month low, this all suggests industry is unlikely to exit this soft patch in the near future.

                          “The prices picture remained mixed in July. Cost inflation eased, whereas selling prices rose at the quickest pace in five months. The financial markets still seem to have an interest rate increase nailed on for August. However, if the combination of weaker growth and a softening of pipeline cost pressures at manufacturers is mirrored in the larger service sector, the Bank of England’s decision will be far from unanimous and they may even yet find some cause for pause.”

                          Full relese here.

                          Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 55.1, slowdown reflects worries on trade wars, tariffs and rising prices

                            By
                            ActionForex.com
                            -

                             

                            Eurozone manufacturing PMI is finalized at 55.1 in July, unrevised. That was a touch higher than June’s final reading of 54.9. Market noted in the release that growth of both output and new orders remain
                            subdued compared to earlier in the year. Also, new export order growth at near-two year low amid concerns about tariffs and trade wars.

                            Among the countries, the Netherlands scored 58.0, but hit a 14 month low. Germany came second at 56.9 (revised down from 57.3). Italy hit a 21-month low at 51.5.

                            Commenting on the final Manufacturing PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

                            “A marginal uptick in the PMI provides little cause for cheer given it is the second weakest number for more than one-and-a-half years. The past two months have seen the most subdued spell of factory output growth since late-2016. Worse may be to come. Even this reduced rate of output growth continued to outpace order book growth, resulting in the smallest rise in order book backlogs for two years. The clear implication is that manufacturers may have to adjust production down in coming months unless demand revives.

                            “Clues to the current soft patch lie in the export growth trend, which has deteriorated dramatically since the start of the year across all member states to reach a near-two year low, with France and Austria seeing exports fall into decline in July.

                            “The survey responses indicate that the slowdown likely reflects worries about trade wars, tariffs and rising prices, as well as general uncertainty about the economic outlook. Optimism about the future remained at one of the lowest levels seen over the past two years.”

                            Japan Nishimura: Meeting with USTR Lighthizer not prelude to bilateral FTA

                              By
                              ActionForex.com
                              -

                              Japanese Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasutoshi Nishimura emphasized today that the meeting between Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer next week is not a prelude to a bilateral free trade agreement.

                              Nishimura reiterated the government’s stance that “Japan does not desire an FTA and these talks are not at all preliminary discussions on an FTA.” Though he noted that “We will be looking for the best path for both the United States and Japan.”

                              In additional he also ruled out setting a quantitative limit on auto exports to the US. He said “whether it’s exports or imports, we will not set numerical targets.” And, “the fundamental thing is to maintain free and fair trade.”

                              Regarding the threat of auto tariffs from Trump, Nishimura said “raising tariffs on autos would have a big impact on the world economy and would be a big minus for the American economy, so we want to talk firmly so that does not happen.”

                              Japan has been very clear on their intention to bring the US back to the multilateral Trans-Pacific Partnership pact which Trump quitted as one of the first things he did after taking office.

                              UK NIESR urges BoE to stand ready to move in either direction should circumstances change

                                By
                                ActionForex.com
                                -

                                The UK National Institute of Economic and Social Research release an article “Prospects for the UK Economy” yesterday. It warned that the economy is “facing an unusual level of uncertainty because of Brexit”. Such “uncertainty primarily stems from the yet to be defined relationship between the UK and the EU”, as well as “the economy’s response to the new framework once it emerges.” And it criticized Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit white paper for failing to “unite the government or Parliament”, thus ” leaving open an entire spectrum of possible outcomes.”

                                The NIESR conditioned its economic forecast with a 25bps BoE rate hike this month, that is, tomorrow. That’s also under the assumption of a “soft Brexit”. The economic is expected to grow at potential with GDP up 1.4% this year, and 1.7% next year. But “risks to our GDP growth forecast are wider than before and tilted to the downside.”

                                NIESR also urged BoE to take account of the uncertainty of Brexit when setting policy and “also weigh the consequences of ‘getting it wrong’.” That is, it urged BoE to “stand ready to move in either direction should circumstances change.” BoE should “emphasise the uncertainty (rather than the certainty) of its future policy stance in its communications and its willingness to reverse its decisions.”

                                Trump said to consider slapping 25% tariffs on USD 200B of Chinese imports

                                  By
                                  ActionForex.com
                                  -

                                  Just hours after report that US and China are seeking to re-engage in trade negotiations, there were reports that Trump is planning to slap 25% tariffs on USD 200B in Chinese imports, instead of 10%. The product list could include food, chemicals, steel and aluminum, consumer goods etc. The announcement could be made as soon as on Wednesday, that is today.

                                  Trump defended his try policies in a rally speech in Tampa. And he put the blame on other countries again and said “China and others have targeted our farmers. Not good. Not nice. And you know what our farmers are saying? ‘It’s OK. We can take it.” He also tried to equate the support to his policy to patriotism, in typical authoritarian government way, by hailing the farmers as “true patriots”.

                                  Market reactions to the news were relatively muted though. USD/CNH (offshore Yuan) dipped to as low as 6.770 on news of possible restart in trade talks. But that it’s back above 6.8 on the news of the possible 25% tariffs. It’s clear what is driving the Yuan exchange rate.

                                  New Zealand employment grew 0.5%, unemployment rate edged higher to 4.5%, AUD/NZD stays in consolidation

                                    By
                                    ActionForex.com
                                    -

                                    New Zealand employment grew 0.5% qoq in Q2, down from prior quarter’s 0.6% qoq, but beat expectation of 0.4% qoq. Unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 4.5%, above expectation of 4.4%. Participation rate rose 0.1% to 70.9%. All sector wage inflation rose 0.5%.

                                    From Australia, AiG performance of manufacturing index dropped notable 52 in July, down from 57.4.

                                    Despite breaching 1.0844 support briefly, AUD/NZD quickly recover, also drew support from 55 day EMA. For now, considering the corrective structure of price action from 1.0991, near term outlook in AUD/NZD stays bullish. We’d expect another rise ahead through 1.0991. And sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 1.1289 to 1.0486 at 1.0982 could pave the way to retest 1.1289 high.

                                    Japan PMI manufacturing finalized at 52.3, export sales stalled for second month

                                      By
                                      ActionForex.com
                                      -

                                      Japan PMI manufacturing was finalized at 52.3, revised up from 51.6. But the reading was still the lowest in 11 months.

                                      Commenting on the Japanese Manufacturing PMI survey data, Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey, said:

                                      “Latest survey data signalled a slowdown to manufacturing sector growth at the beginning of Q3. Output growth eased and there was a noticeable softening of demand, while export sales failed to record any upswing for a second month running.

                                      “There was also evidence that supply-side constraints were beginning to bite harder. Employment growth slipped and was weaker than rates seen earlier in the year, meanwhile delivery times for inputs lengthened to the greatest extent in over seven years.

                                      “In turn, input price inflation accelerated to an 88-month high, resulting in the strongest rate of increase in selling charges for almost a decade. Although stronger output price inflationary pressures will be welcomed by policymakers, anecdotal evidence indicates the latest rise was primarily cost-push. Further weakness in total new business growth could skew the inflationary outlook to the downside.”

                                      Full release here.

                                      China Caixin PMI manufacturing dropped to 50.8, export market continued to deteriorate

                                        By
                                        ActionForex.com
                                        -

                                        China Caixin PMI manufacturing dropped -0.2 to 50.8 in July, down from 51.0, slightly below expectation of 50.9. It’s also the lowest since November 2017. The key points in the release are slower increase in output and new orders, fastest decline in new export sales for over two years and solid rise in input costs.

                                        Commenting on the China General Manufacturing PMI™ data, Dr. Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group said:

                                        “The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.8 in July from June. The reading has not been this low since November 2017.

                                        “The sub-indexes for output and new orders both fell, but remained in expansionary territory, while the employment sub-index picked up despite remaining in contractionary territory. New export orders shrunk at the fastest pace since June 2016, indicating the export market continued to deteriorate.

                                        “The sub-indexes for output charges and input prices both dropped, but remained in expansionary territory, pointing to easing pressure on prices. The sub-index for future output edged up, reflecting that goods producers were more optimistic that production would grow over the next 12 months.

                                        “The sub-index for stocks of finished items contracted at a steeper rate in July, while the sub-index for stocks of purchased items started expanding again — a positive sign that companies had reduced their stocks of finished products and replenished stocks of purchases. The sub-index for suppliers’ delivery times rose, even though it failed to make it into expansionary territory, which might imply an improved capital turnover among manufacturers.

                                        “In general, the survey signaled a weakening manufacturing trend as a grim export market dragged on the sector’s performance. The positive drivers were the increase in stocks of purchases and easing pressure on capital turnover.”

                                        Full release here.

                                        Yuan rebounds as US, China seek to restart trade talk, but we doubt.

                                          By
                                          ActionForex.com
                                          -

                                          Dollar is apparently lifted mildly by a Bloomberg report that US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He are having private conversations for restarting the trade negotiations.

                                          It seems like a very early stage of re-engagement as there is no time-table, nor any format for the talk. But, there is only vague consensus that talks need to take place.

                                          While Dollar is strengthening against Yen, it dips notably against the offshore China Yuan on the news.

                                          On the one hand, it’s understandable for China to seek a way out of the tariffs vicious cycle given that US and EU are now aligned against it after Juncker’s visit.

                                          On the other hand, it should be noted that Liu He was assigned a new task last week to lead a special work group to oversee state-owned enterprise reforms. Adding another task for Liu in such a crucial time when he’s leading trade negotiation with the US is unusual. And that prompted speculations that President Xi Jinping is not satisfied with what Liu has done. And Liu could be moved away from the circle on the trade issue.

                                          So, the news is doubtful to us.

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