RBA cuts rate to 0.25%, starts government bond purchases

    RBA announces a package of coronavirus response today. Firstly, cash rate is cut by 25bps to 0.25%. Additionally, the central bank will start purchases of government bonds to keep 3 year yield at around 0.25%, starting tomorrow. A three-year funding facility will also be set up to provide credit support to small and medium-sized businesses. Lastly, exchange settlement balances will be remunerated at 10 basis points, instead of zero.

    The central said, “the various elements of this package reinforce one another and will help to lower funding costs across the economy and support the provision of credit, especially to small and medium-sized businesses.” “Today’s policy package from the Reserve Bank complements the welcome fiscal response from governments in Australia. Together, these measures will support jobs, incomes and businesses through this difficult period and they will also assist the Australian economy in the recovery.”

    Full statement here.

    NFP in focus, USD/CAD forming head and shoulder top?

      US non-farm payroll employment data is the major focus of the day. Markets are expecting the job market to grow 200k in October. Unemployment rate is expected to tick up from 3.5% to 3.6%.

      Looking at related data, ADP report showed solid 239k growth in private employment. ISM manufacturing employment also improved from 48.7 to 50.0. However, ISM services employment dropped notably from 53.0 to contractionary reading of 49.1. Four-week moving average of initial jobless claims rose slightly from 207k to 219k. The set of data overall suggests that job market should remain tight.

      As per market reaction, USD/CAD would be an interesting one to watch considering that Canada will also release job data. For now, near term outlook stays bullish for another rise through 1.3976 to resume larger up trend. However, break of 1.3494/3501 support will complete a head and should top pattern (ls: 1.3832; h:1.3976; rs: 1.3807). In the case, deeper correction would likely be seen back to 1.3207 resistance turned support, before USD/CAD find renewed buying.

      EU Juncker warns UK May against Brexit delay past May 23

        According to his spokesperson, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker warned UK Prime Minister Theresa May in a phone call that short Brexit extension has to be complete before May 23.

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        The spokesman also later said:

        “President Juncker said to the prime minister that he thinks it’s a good idea she sets out her thoughts to the leaders ahead of the EU Council.

        However, the president has clearly warned the prime minister against including a date for the extension that will be after the European parliament elections. That’s why he repeated in this call his advice, which he set out in his letter on March 11, that the withdrawal has to be complete before May 23, otherwise we risk facing institutional difficulties and legal uncertainty, given the European elections date.

        European elections have to be held if the extension date is beyond May 23. This is the position of the commission and this is what the president informed the prime minister again.”

        ECB Lane: Monetary policy is to ensure residual inflation dynamic returns to target in timely manner

          In a speech, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said that monetary is “always decided under conditions on uncertainty”, both about “inflation dynamics” and the “channels connecting medium-term inflation to our monetary policy instruments”. This uncertainty is “mitigated to some extent by taking a meeting-by-meeting”.

          The “considerable lags” between monetary policy actions and their impact on inflation outcomes imply that much of the near-term attention in assessing monetary policy actions focuses on the transmission to financial conditions.

          Also, “in the absence of further shocks, the profile of euro area inflation over the next 12 to 18 months will be primarily driven by the fading impact of past supply shocks and the deceleration in demand that is signalled by the latest confidence indicators.” The role of monetary policy is to ensure that the “residual” inflation dynamic returns to target in a timely manner.

          Full speech here.

          Canada retail sales down -2.5% mom in Jul

            Canada retail sales dropped -2.5% mom to CAD 61.3B in July, worse than expectation of -2.0% mom. That’s also the first decline in seven months. Sales were down in 9 of 11 subsectors, representing 94.5% of retail trade. The contraction was driven by lower sales at gasoline stations and clothing and clothing accessories stores. Excluding gasoline, and motor vehicle and parts, sales dropped -0.9%.

            Based on advance estimate, sales recovered by rising 0.4% mom in August.

            Full release here.

            ECB policymakers push common fiscal responses from governments

              ECB Governing Council Member Olli Rehn said that Eurozone is now at a “critical juncture” with the coronavirus pandemic. It is “essential for Eurozone governments to “get their acts together and agree to a coordinated European fiscal response.” “There’s a saying: never waste a crisis. Therefore it’s important that euro area governments agree at this critical moment on some kind of a safe asset that could provide sturdy support for financing,” he added.

              Another Governing Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos also called for a common fiscal response using the European Stability Mechanism, the European Investment Bank, the EU’s common budget or other “risk sharing” tools. He urged, “greater ambition and coordination are not just an option; they are a necessity.”

              Fed removes QE limits, launches new program to support businesses

                Fed announced a new round of aggressive measures to support the US economy against coronavirus pandemic impacts. In particular, Fed will purchase bonds to keep borrowing costs low without specifying a limit. There will also be programs to ensure credit flows into businesses and governments.

                Fed said it will buy treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities “in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning and effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions and the economy.” Last week, Fed said it would by at least USD 500B of treasuries and USD 200B of agency MBS.

                Additionally, Fed will support “the flow of credit to employers, consumers and businesses by establishing new programs that, taken together, will provide up to $300 billion in new financing.”

                Full statement here.

                EU Barnier: More than 11 month needed for comprehensive agreement with UK

                  EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier warned that more time than 11 months is needed to complete a comprehensive agreement with UK. He said in a speech that “we simply cannot expect to agree on every single aspect of this new partnership in under one year.”

                  “We are ready to do our best and to do the maximum in the 11 months to secure a basic agreement with the UK, but we will need more time to agree on each and every point of this political declaration,” he added.

                  Eurozone GDP contracted -0.7% qoq in Q4, EU down -0.5%

                    Eurozone GDP contracted -0.7% qoq in Q4, smaller than expectation of -1.8% qoq. Over the year, GDP contracted -6.8% yoy. EU GDP contracted -0.5% qoq. Over the year, EU GDP contracted -6.4% yoy.

                    Among the Member States, for which data are available for the Q4, Austria (-4.3%) recorded the highest decrease compared to the previous quarter, followed by Italy (-2.0%) and France (-1.3%) while Lithuania (+1.2%) and Latvia (+1.1%) recorded the highest increases. The year on year growth rates were still negative for all countries.

                    Full release here.

                    Fed Bostic: Appropriate to move policy to neutral, in a measured way

                      Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said yesterday, “it’s time that we get off of our emergency stance — I think it’s really appropriate that we move our policy closer to a neutral position — but I think we need to do it in a measured way.”

                      At the same virtual conference, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said, “I’m optimistic that we can get to neutral, look around, and find that we’re not necessarily that far from where we need to go.”

                      France PMI manufacturing finalized at 59.4, a key challenge to keep up with workloads

                        France PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 59.4 in May, up from April’s 58.0. That’s was also the highest level since September 2000. Both output and new orders rose at sharpest rates since January 2018. Accumulation of backlogs was steepest since November 2006. Rise in selling prices was near-record amid further acceleration of cost inflation.

                        Andrew Harker, Economics Director at IHS Markit, said: “Demand and production volumes continued to ramp up in the French manufacturing sector during May, with the loosening of lockdown restrictions playing a key part in this last month.

                        “The key challenge now for firms is being able to keep up with workloads. This is proving to be a struggle amid severe supply-chain delays and a lack of material availability. As a result, levels of backlogged work are rising sharply. We are therefore likely to see further expansions to production in the months ahead should some of these constraints start to ease, with hopefully more jobs created to help deal with backlogs.

                        “Inflationary pressures showed little sign of abating. On the contrary, input costs increased at the fastest pace for a decade, with output price inflation the second-fastest on record.”Commenting on the latest survey results, Andrew Harker, Economics Director at IHS Markit, said: “Demand and production volumes continued to ramp up in the French manufacturing sector during May, with the loosening of lockdown restrictions playing a key part in this last month.

                        “The key challenge now for firms is being able to keep up with workloads. This is proving to be a struggle amid severe supply-chain delays and a lack of material availability. As a result, levels of backlogged work are rising sharply. We are therefore likely to see further expansions to production in the months ahead should some of these constraints start to ease, with hopefully more jobs created to help deal with backlogs. “Inflationary pressures showed little sign of abating. On the contrary, input costs increased at the fastest pace for a decade, with output price inflation the second-fastest on record.”

                        Full release here.

                        PBoC left 1-yr LPR unchanged at 3.85%, USD/CNH recovers in consolidation

                          China’s PBoC left the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) unchanged at 3.85% today. The five-year LPR was held at 4.65%. These benchmark lending rates for corporate and household loans were kept unchanged for the eight straight months. Some economists saw that with the economic recovery on the right track, PBoC policy focus would gradually shift away from supporting growth. Keeping LPRs unchanged would provide the base for the central bank to hike its policy rates next year.

                          Offshore Yuan trades a little weaker today, mainly as dollar recovers. USD/CNH continues to consolidate above 6.4968 temporary low. Near term outlook stays bearish, with another fall expected, as long as 6.5968 resistance holds. USD/CNH could have a take on 61.8% retracement of 6.0153 to 7.1953 at 6.4661 before forming a bottom.

                          China PMI services rose to 53.9, employment gauge slipped further into negative territory

                            China Caixin PMI services rose to 53.9 in December, up from 53.8 and beat expectation of 53.1. PMI composite also rose from 51.9 to five-month high of 52.2.

                            Commenting on the China General Services PMI™ data, Dr. Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group said: “The Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index rose to 53.9 in December after a big jump the previous month.

                            “Among the gauges included in the survey, the one for new business dipped slightly in December after a rebound the month before, suggesting steady demand across the services sector. The employment measure stayed in positive territory but edged down further, indicating that the employment absorption capacity of the services industry weakened mildly. The gauges for prices charged by service providers and input costs both edged up. The measure for business expectations also rose, reflecting service providers’ strengthening confidence in their prospects.

                            “The Caixin China Composite Output Index picked up marginally to 52.2 in December, reflecting easing downward pressure on China’s economic growth.

                            “Although the index for new export business rose, the one for overall new orders dropped, reflecting weakening domestic demand. The employment gauge slipped further into negative territory, implying increasing challenges to stabilizing employment, which was the broader context of December’s central government policies to increase jobs. The gauges for input costs and output charges continued to drop, pointing to easing inflationary pressures. The measure for future output, which reflects business confidence, edged up marginally, although it remained on a downtrend.”

                            Full release here.

                            PBoC kept MLF rate at 2.95% for 4th month, USD/CNH softer in range

                              China’s central bank PBoC rolled over CNY 700B maturing medium-term loans today. Rate was kept at 2.95%, unchanged for the fourth straight month. The injection was well above the two set batches of MLF that are set to expire in August, totalling CNY 500B. Markets are expecting no change to the benchmark loan prime rate on Thursday.

                              USD/CNH is mildly softer in range today, mildly due to Dollar’s movements. It’s staying in near term falling channel. Further fall is expected as long as 6.9804 support turned resistance. USD/CNH would target 6.8452 support. But we’d expect strong support around there to complete the three-wave consolidation pattern from 7.1953.

                              Swiss CPI unchanged at 0.7% yoy, consumer sentiment dropped to -6

                                Swiss CPI rose 0.2% mom 0.7% yoy in April, matched expectations. Core CPI rose 0.3% mom, 0.5% yoy. The 0.2% mom increase in headline CPI compared with the previous month can be explained by several factors including rising prices for fuel and for air transport. In contrast, prices for hotel accommodation, glasses and contact lenses decreased.

                                Swiss SECO consumer confidence dropped to -6 in April, down from -4 and missed expectation of -3. SECO noted that: “Swiss consumer sentiment has worsened slightly. The index now comes in only just above average. The labour market has still been assessed positively. However, the likelihood of consumers making major purchases remains low.

                                Fed to stand pat, release new projections, may announce end to balance sheet runoff

                                  Fed is widely expected to keep interest rate unchanged at 2.25-2.50% today. Also the central bank is expected to reiterated that it’s in no hurry to make another move. The language that “the Committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support these outcomes” should be maintained .

                                  There will be two major focuses for the announcement as well as press conference. Firstly, Fed’s is known to be preparing for ending the balance sheet roll-off this year. The balance sheet surged from less than USD 1T in 2008 to hit a peak of USD 4.5T as a result of the quantitative easing program. It then started to be reduced by USD 50B per month since early last year. The detailed plan might be revealed today with specifics on when and how the runoff would end.

                                  Fed will also publish first set of new economic projections after it shifted to a “patient” stance. Forecasts on GDP, unemployment rate and inflation are important as usual. But a crucial part is projection on federal funds rate. Back in December, the median forecast was for interest rate to rise to 2.9% in 2019, with central tendency at 2.6-3.1%. For 2020, media rate was at 3.1%. The longer run neutral rate was projected to be at 2.8%, with central tendency at 2.5-3.0%. Today’s projections will hopefully answer questions like: Is there one or two expected rate hikes this year? Are some members expecting a rate cut? Where the neutral rate is? Will rate hike continue down the road to surpass neutral?

                                  Here are Fed’s December projections.

                                  Below are some suggested readings on FOMC:

                                  EUR/CHF to gyrate lower despite positive German data

                                    Economic data from Germany are generally positive. Retail sales rose 1.9% mom in November, versus expectation of -2.2% mom contraction. Destatis added that retail turnover in 202 is expected to be between 3.9% and 4.3% higher than in 2019.

                                    Unemployment dropped -37k in December, versus expectation of 10k. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.1%, versus expectation of 6.2%.

                                    Euro has little reactions to the data. EUR/CHF’s choppy decline from 1.0890 is still in progress for 1.0737 support. Break will suggest completion of whole rise from 1.0658 and bring deeper fall back to this support. This will remain the favor case for now, as long as 1.0830 minor resistance holds.

                                    US initial jobless claims unchanged at 205k, matched expectations

                                      US initial jobless claims was unchanged at 205k in the week ending December 17, matched expectations. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 3k to 206k.

                                      Continuing claims dropped -8k to 1859k in the week ending December 11. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -49k to 1920k. Both are the lowest since March 14, 2020.

                                      Full release here.

                                      China Caixin PMI services rose to 57.8, highest since Nov 2020

                                        China’s Caixin PMI Services index exceeded expectations in March, rising from 55.0 to 57.8, marking the highest level since November 2020. The data revealed sharp increases in activity, sales, and employment, with the services sector showing stronger expansion compared to the manufacturing sector. Business confidence remained historically strong, while input price inflation reached a seven-month high. The PMI Composite also experienced a slight increase from 54.2 to 54.5, reaching its highest point since June 2022.

                                        Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “Production, demand and employment all grew, with the services sector showing a stronger expansion, whereas manufacturing activity turned comparatively sluggish. Input costs and prices charged remained stable, and businesses were highly optimistic.”

                                        Full China Caixin PMI services release here.

                                        UK Johnson to push “yes or no” meaningful vote on Brexit deal

                                          UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is pushing for a “yes or no” meaningful vote on his Brexit deal today. His spokesman said “The meaningful vote will go ahead if the speaker allows it and if no amendments are selected which would render the vote pointless. There is not point having a meaningless vote, the government would pull the motion”.

                                          He added: “The public want Brexit done. The government is determined to pass the PM’s great new deal and get us out of the EU on Oct. 31 … The deal with the EU has just been agreed, it is done, it is closed”. “The negotiations with the EU have already gone on far too long. The prime minister has achieved what is a very good deal and he is focused on getting that deal through parliament.”