US embassy denies statement of release of pastor Brunson

    Lira has a quick dip in early US session while Yen crosses recover in general. The trigger is a social media report that American pastor Andrew Brunson, will be released from house arrest by August 15.

    The U.S. Embassy in Ankara, Turkey, quickly comes out and denies that it released related statement.

    While the rumor is denied, the reactions in the markets argue that traders are ready to take any positive news to close out their positions. The worst of Turkish crisis might be temporarily over.

    Into US session, markets calmer but risk aversion still dominates

      Entering into US session, Yen remains the strongest one followed by Swiss Franc. Risk aversion is the main theme for today on Turkish Lira crisis. Australian Dollar is trading as the weakest one while Euro follows as the second.

      Measures by the Turkish central bank CBRT appeared to have stabilized sentiments a bit. USD/TRY dropped to as low as 6.4136. But apparently, there is no trend reversal yet. Lira is quickly back under pressure with USD/TRY now trading above 7.000 handle again.

      In other markets, European stocks appear to be rather calm. At the time of writing, DAX is just down -0.68%, CAC down -0.21% and FTSE down -0.58%. Selloff in Asia was much more serious. Nikkei was also hit by the strength in Yen and closed down -1.98%. Hong Kong HSI closed down -1.52%, Singapore Strait Times closed down -1.20%.

      However, China’s Shanghai SSE showed some resilience and closed down just -0.34% at 2785.87. It pared back much losses after dipping to as low as 2742.55. However, as USD/CHN (offshore Yuan) is heading back towards 6.9. We could see more pressure on Chinese and Asian stocks, thus Australian Dollar too, should Yuan’s free fall resumes.

      AUD/JPY breaks 80.48 key support, resuming medium term down trend for 79.22 next.

        AUD/JPY’s strong break of 80.48 key support today its worth a mention. This marks resumption of down trend form 90.29 (2017 high). AUD/JPY should now head to 61.8% retracement of 72.39 to 90.29 at 79.22 next.

        In the bigger picture, rejection from 55 week EMA affirmed the bearish case that corrective rise from 72.39 (2016 low) has completed at 90.29. Fall from 90.29 should at least be at the same degree as the rise from 72.39 to 90.29. That is, fall from sustained break of 79.22 should pave the way to retest 72.39 low.

        In between, AUD/JPY will face an import fibonacci level of 100% projection of 90.29 to 80.48 from 83.92 at 74.11. Firm break there will suggests that fall from 90.29 is likely an impulsive move. And that will increase the chance of resuming the down trend from 105.42 (2013 high) through 72.39.

        Gold to break 1200 finally, head towards 1172 fibonacci level

          Gold finally breaks out of consolidation today and reaches as low as 1201.24 so far. The down trend from 1365.24 has resumed. Near term outlook will now stay bearish as long as 1217.31 resistance holds. Next target is 1172.07 fibonacci level. On the upside, though, break of 1217.31 will indicate short term bottoming. And rebound could be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 1247.14 before staging another decline.

          Currently decline from 1365.24 is viewed as part of the long term sideway pattern from 1046.54 (2015 low). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1045.65 to 1375.15 will pave the way to 1046.54/1122/81 support zone. At this point, we’re not expecting a break there to resume long term down trend yet. Hence, we’ll look for bottoming signal below 1122.81.

          North, South Korea agreed to hold summit in September

            After nearly two hours of meeting, delegations of South and North Korea announced that North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in will meet sometime in September. That came even though, the US has yet to obtain any concrete plan about denuclearization of the peninsula.

            Ahead of the meeting, Ri Son Gwon, chairman chairman of a North Korean committee aiming for the “peaceful reunification” of the peninsula said that the Koreas were like very close friends with an unbreakable bond. After the meeting, he also said that it’s was important to clear the obstacles preventing the relationship from moving forward. He added that “if the issues that were raised at the talks aren’t resolved, unexpected problems could emerge and the issues that are already on the schedule may face difficulties.”

            For now, not date not agenda is released yet and South Korean Unification Minister Cho Myoung-gyon would brief the press later in the day.

            CBRT cuts lira reserve requirement ratios by 250 basis points.

              More announcement from CBRT as Albayrak promised.

              Below is full statement.

              To support effective functioning of financial markets and flexibility of the banks in their liquidity management;

              • Turkish lira reserve requirement ratios have been reduced by 250 basis points for all maturity brackets.
              • Reserve requirement ratios for non-core FX liabilities have been reduced by 400 basis points for the following maturities.
              Other FX Liabilities Current Reserve Requirement Ratios New Reserve Requirement Ratios
              Up to (and including) 1-year maturity 24% 20%
              Up to (and including) 2-year maturity 19% 15%
              Up to (and including) 3-year maturity 14% 10%
              • The maximum average maintenance facility for FX liabilities has been raised to 8 percent.
              • In addition to US dollars, euro can be used for the maintenance against Turkish lira reserves under the reserve options mechanism.

              With this revision, approximately 10 billion TL, 6 billion US dollars, and 3 billion US dollars equivalent of gold liquidity will be provided to the financial system.

              CBRT announced measures on Turkish Lira and FX liquidity management

                Full statement below.

                Press Release on Financial Markets

                To support financial stability and sustain the effective functioning of markets, the following measures have been introduced:

                I. Turkish lira liquidity management:

                1) In the framework of intraday and overnight standing facilities, the Central Bank will provide all the liquidity the banks need.

                2) Discount rates for collaterals against Turkish lira transactions will be revised based on type and maturity, thus providing banks with flexibility in their collateral management. Through this regulation, the discounted value of banks’ current unencumbered collaterals is projected to increase by approximately 3,8 billion Turkish liras.

                3) Collateral FX deposit limits for Turkish lira transactions of banks have been raised to 20 billion euros from 7,2 billion euros.

                4) As cited in the Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy Text for 2018, when deemed necessary, in addition to one-week repo auctions, which are the main funding instrument of the Central Bank, traditional repo auctions or deposit selling auctions may be held with maturities no longer than 91 days.

                5) For the days with relatively higher funding need, more than one repo auction may be conducted with maturities between 6 and 10 days.

                6) To provide flexibility in banks’ collateral management, upon the request of banks, a portion of or the entire amount of the winning bids in one-week repo auctions will be allowed to be used in deposit transactions instead of repo transactions at the Central Bank Interbank Money Market with the same interest rate and maturity.

                II. FX liquidity management:

                1) Banks will be able to borrow FX deposits in one-month maturity in addition to one-week maturity.

                2) The Central Bank will resume its intermediary function at the FX deposit market. Accordingly, through the intermediation of the Central Bank, banks will be able to borrow from and lend to each other at the FX deposit market as per the rules set by the Implementation Instructions on the Foreign Exchange and Banknotes Markets.

                3) Banks’ current foreign exchange deposit limits of around 50 billion US dollars may be increased and utilization conditions may be improved if deemed necessary.

                4) Banks will continue to purchase foreign banknotes from the Central Bank via foreign exchange transactions within their pre-determined limits at the Foreign Exchange and Banknotes Markets.

                The Central Bank will closely monitor the market depth and price formations, and take all necessary measures to maintain financial stability, if deemed necessary.

                Yen strong on Lira crisis, Chinese Yuan back pressured

                  The story continues as the selloff in Turkish Lira continues in Asian session today. Yen is leading the way higher, followed by Swiss Franc on risk aversion. Euro is the weakest one followed by Australian Dollar. Asian markets are in deep red. At the time of writing, Nikkei is down -1.85%, Hong Kong HSI down -1.83%, Shanghai SSE down -1.73% and Singapore Strait Times down -1.20%.

                  USD/TRY rally could have stabilized a bit. It breached 7.2 handle earlier today, but it’s now back at 6.82, up 6.3%. However, another trouble could be in the making as USD/CNH (offshore Yuan) is picking up strength today.

                  Currently at 6.88, it could be ready to have a take on recent high at 6.921. And it looks like the Chinese government’s effort on support the Yuan is rather fruitless.

                  Study shows 112 constituencies switched from Brexit to Bremain

                    According to a latest study, more than 100 parliamentary seats have flipped from pro-Brexit in 2016 to pro-Bremain now. Focaldata, a consumer analytic company, compiled the breakdown data by modelling two YouGov polls conducted before and after Prime Minister Theresa May’s Chequers Deal. The study was jointly commissioned by anti-Brexit group Best for Britain and anti-racist group Hope Not Hate.

                    The study found that 112 seats out of 632 in England, Scotland and Wales have switched from leave to Remain. And there are now 341 seats with majority Remain support, up from 229 seats at the referendum in 2016. Among the switches, 97 was in England, 14, in Wales and 1 in Scotland. Also, there is now a majority for Remain in both Scotland and Wales.

                    Eloise Todd, the chief executive of Best for Britain, said: “the sands of public opinion are shifting and politicians risk falling behind”, and “the deal must be put to the people.” Nick Lowles, head of Hope not Hate, said “the rate of change appears to be quickening as the realities of what Brexit would mean become more apparent and the fears of a no-deal Brexit grow”.

                    The UK and EU are due to reconvene Brexit negotiation on Thursday in Brussels. UK is believed to be pushing the deadline for negotiation to October while EU is insisting to conclude it in September.

                    German EM Altmaier: We won’t let Washington dictate us with whom we can do business

                      German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier launched strong attack on Trump for his tariffs and sanctions. He told Bild am Sonntag newspaper that “this trade war is slowing down and destroying economic growth – and it creates new uncertainties.”

                      Meanwhile, the agreement between the EU and US “can only be first step”. Altmaier emphasized “Our goal is a global trade order with lower tariffs, less protectionism and open markets.”

                      Regarding US sanctions on Iran, Altmaier also pledged the Germany and EU will continue to support companies doing business with Iran. He warned that “we won’t let Washington dictate us with whom we can do business and we therefore stick to the Vienna Nuclear Agreement so that Iran cannot build atomic weapons.”

                      Turkish Lira drops further despite Erdogan family’s effort to calm markets

                        Turkish Lira’s depreciation continues today despite effort by the government to calm the markets. USD/TRY breached 7.2 handle in early trading and stays firm around 7, up more than 9%.

                        Turkish Finance Minister Berat Albayrak said on Sunday that plans will be ready on Monday to ease investors concerns. The plans are prepared for banks and will particularly help small to mid-sized business most affected by the sharp depreciation in Lira. In an interview with Hurriyet newspaper, Albayrak said “from Monday morning onwards our institutions will take the necessary steps and will share the announcements with the market.” And, “we will be taking the necessary steps with our banks and banking watchdog in a speedy manner”. No detail is leaked yet. Albayrak is President Tayyip Erdogan’s son-in-law

                        Talking about the President, Erdogan told supports in Trabzon on the Black Sea coast on Sunday that the country is not in a crisis, and the Lira’s free fall was a plot. He said “What is the reason for all this storm in a tea cup? There is no economic reason for this … This is called carrying out an operation against Turkey.”

                        Erdogan also repeated his call for citizens to buy Lira. He said, “I am specifically addressing our manufacturers: Do not rush to the banks to buy dollars. Do not take a stance saying ‘We are bankrupt, we are done, we should guarantee ourselves’. If you do that, that would be wrong. You should know that to keep this nation standing is … also the manufacturers’ duty.”

                        DOW dives as Trump fires another shot of economic attack on Turkey

                          US stocks open broadly lower on Turkish crisis. Selling accelerates after Trump double down the tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum. So, does it justify Erdogan’s claim that they’re under “economic attack”?

                          Twitter

                          By loading the tweet, you agree to Twitter’s privacy policy.
                          Learn more

                          Load tweet

                          At this time of writing, DOW is down -0.9% or -2340 points. Focus in on 25120.07 support. As long as it holds, recent bullish run from 23997.21 is still on course for 25800.35 resistance. But a firm break there should indicate near term reversal.

                          US core CPI accelerated to 2.4%, Canada job grew massive 54.1k.

                            US headline CPI rose 0.2% mom, 2.9% yoy in July. The year-over-year rate was unchanged from June’s 2.9% yoy and missed expectation of 3.0%.

                            However, core CPI rose 0.2% mom, 2.4% yoy. The year-over-year rate accelerated from June’s 2.3% yoy and beat expectation of 2.3% yoy.

                            Canada employment grew 54.1k in July, more than double of expectation of 24.0k. Unemployment dropped from 6.0% to 5.8%, matched expectation.

                            Dollar strengthens mildly after the release, and there is prospect of extending today’s rise against the vulnerable Euro, Sterling and Aussie.

                            Euro dips as Turkish President Erdogan asks citizens to buy Lira to response to economic attack

                              Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan delivers a crisis speech in the northeastern city of Bayburt as the Lira extends recent free fall on US sanctions. Erdogan urges again the Turks to reach for their foreign exchange savings, and exchange dollar and gold for Lira. He said this is the most effective response to the west.

                              And he said the economic attack against Turkey is due to “small differences of opinion” with certain powers. He condemned that such attacks damaged their relationship with Turkey to a point where it’s impossible to repair.

                              EUR/JPY spikes lower after the speech but quickly recovers.

                              Euro pressured on fear of Turkish contagion

                                The free fall in Turkish Lira is seen as a factors that heavily weighing on Euro today. It’s reported that ECB officials are increasingly worried about contagion from Turkey, due to the deep tie with Eurozone financial system.

                                According to Bank for International Settlements data, Spanish banks are are owed USD 83.3B by Turkish borrowers; French lenders are owed USD 38.4B; and banks in Italy are owed USD 17B. Meanwhile, the Financial Times noted that Spain’s BBVA, Italy’s UniCredit, and France’s BNP Paribas could be particularly impacted by the ongoing depreciation of the lira.

                                It’s seen that a complete banking crisis in Turkey will inevitably have huge impact on Eurozone banks, and even trigger credit crunch. Though, such a worst case scenario is seen as unlikely so far.

                                While the impact on Euro is significant, European stock indices are also trading broadly lower. At the time of writing, DAX is down -1.54%, CAC down -1.11%, FTSE down -0.62%. It’s not that much a disaster so far.

                                Suggested reading on TRY: Erdogan is to Blame For Turkish Lira’s Free Fall

                                UK GDP grew 0.4% qoq in Q2, but June missed expectations

                                  UK GDP grew 0.4% qoq in Q2, doubled that of Q1’s 0.2% qoq and met expectations. Year-over-year, GDP grew 1.3% yoy in Q2, also matched expectation. Nonetheless, June GDP grew only 0.1% mom, below expectation of 0.2% mom, notably slower than May’s 0.3% mom.

                                  Total business investment rose 0.5% qoq in Q2, much stronger than expectation of 0.2% qoq and an impressive rebound from Q1’s -0.4% qoq.

                                  Industrial production rose 0.4% mom, 1.1% yoy in June versus expectation of 0.2% mom, 1.9% yoy. Manufacturing production rose 0.4% mom, 1.5% yoy versus expectation of 0.3% mom, 1.9% yoy.

                                  Visible trade deficit narrowed to GBP -11.4B versus expectation of -11.9B.

                                  There is little reaction to the set of data. Sterling remains the third weakest one for today, just after Australia Dollar and Euro. For the week, the Pound is also the second weakest after New Zealand Dollar.

                                  Euro in broad based selloff, another update on EUR/JPY short

                                    Euro is suffering steep selloff just ahead of European session. In particular, EUR/USD’s break of 1.1507 support confirms medium term down trend resumption. The pair should be targeting 1.1186 fibonacci level next.

                                    EUR/CHF is on course for 1.1366 support. Based on current momentum, the medium term correction from 1.2004 should be resuming for 1.1198 key support level before bottoming.

                                    EUR/GBP also suffers steep pull back after failing 0.9043 fibonacci level. But for the cross, outlook stays bullish as long as 0.8854 support holds.

                                    EUR/JPY’s break of 127.13 support confirms our view that corrective rise from 124.61 has completed with three waves up to 131.97 already. The larger fall from 137.49 could already be resuming.

                                    Here is an update to our short position (sold at 128.60) as mentioned in prior comment. The development is in line with our expectations so far. We’ll hold short in EUR/JPY and lower the stop to 128.10 (slightly above 128.04 minor resistance). The stop is relatively wide for giving the position a bit of space to breathe in case of mild recovery. As noted before, we’re indeed eyeing at least a test on 124.61 low. We’re decide whether to take profit around there later, based on downside momentum in the cross.

                                    RBA SoMP reiterates no urgency for rate hike, economic projections largely unchanged

                                      The RBA Statement on Monetary Policy revealed nothing new give then Governor Philip Lowe had delivered an update in a speech earlier this week. In the SoMP, RBA, reiterated that “higher interest rates are likely to be appropriate at some point, if the economy continues to evolve as expected.” That is, the next move is “up not down”. But, Given the gradual nature of the improvement, however, the Board does not see a strong case to adjust the cash rate in the near term.

                                      RBA’s new economic forecasts appear to be largely unchanged from the May SoMP.

                                      • Four-quarter GDP growth is projected to be at 3.25% in Q4 2018, 3.25% in Q2 2019 (revised down from 3.50%), 3.25% in Q4 2019, 3.00% in Q2 2020 and 3.00% in Q4 2020 (new).
                                      • Unemployment rate is projected to be at 5.5% in Q4 2018, 5.25% in Q2 2019, 5.25% in Q4 2019, 5.25% in Q2 2020 and 5.00% in Q4 2020 (new).
                                      • Headline CPI is projected to be at 1.75% in Q4 2018 (revised down from 2.25%), 2.0% in Q2 2019 (revised down from 2.25%), 2.25% in Q4 2019, 2.25% in Q2 2020 and 2.25% in Q4 2020 (new).
                                      • Underlying inflation is projected to be at 1.75% in Q4 2018 (revised down from 2.00%), 2.00% in Q2 2019, 2.00% in Q4 2019, 2.25% in Q2 2020, 2.25% in Q2 2020 (new).

                                      These are the latest forecasts.

                                      Full RBA Statement on Monetary Policy here.

                                      Yen rises as Japan’s consumption-led GDP growth beat expectation

                                        The Japanese Yen appears to be lifted by stronger than expected GDP data today. Japan economy grew 0.5% qoq, 1.9% annualized in Q2. That’s way stronger than expectation of 0.3% qoq, 1.4% annualized. It’s also a strong rebound from prior quarter’s -0.2% qoq, -0.6% annualized contraction. Q1 was an unexpected interruption in the best run in the economy since 1980s. In Q2, GDP deflator rose 0.1% yoy, also beat expectation of -0.2% yoy fall.

                                        Private consumption, which accounts for 60% of the economy, grew an impressive 0.7%. The solid growth could be an indication of finally a changing “social mood” in the country. And people are more willing to spend based on the expectation that wages will eventually rise. Getting out of such “social mood” is important for Japan to beat the persistent trend of sluggish low inflation. Such development should be very welcomed by BoJ Meanwhile, Capital expenditure rose 1.3%, strongest since Q4 2016.

                                        Also from Japan, Domestic CGPI rose 3.1% yoy in July versus expectation of 2.9% yoy. Tertiary industry index, however, dropped -0.5% mom in June versus expectation of -0.2% mom.

                                        Japan EM Motegi and USTR Lighthizer had frank exchange on the conditions for further trade talks

                                          Japan’s Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi started trade talks with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer yesterday. After hours of meeting, Motegi said “we had a frank exchange of views and deepened mutual understanding.” He declined to reveal what were discussed and added that he would “say what I can after the first round of talks end”.

                                          But Motegi reiterated Japan’s position that multilateral framework is the best way to address trade issues. The country is insisting to avoid a bilateral free-trade agreement. Instead, Japan would like to pull the US back into TPP, the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

                                          The USTR later said that “ambassador Lighthizer and Minister Motegi had a thorough and constructive exchange of views on all bilateral trade issues.” And, “they understand each other’s conditions for further discussions and plan to move forward with additional talks.”