US headline durable goods orders dropped -1.7% in July versus expectation of 1.0% rise. Ex-transport goods rose 0.2% versus expectation of 0.3%. However, it should be noted that non-military capital-goods orders excluding aircraft jumped 1.4%, showing solid increase in business investments. Shipments rose 0.9% which should provide solid contribution to Q3 GDP.

The overall set of data argues that the impact from escalation of US-China trade war didn’t have material impact of business investments yet, despite the cries for lower confidence. However, August and September figures will provide a more realistic picture as larger batch of tariffs came into effect.

PMI manufacturing dropped to 54.5 in August, down from 55.3 and missed expectation of 55.1. PMI services dropped to 55.2, down from 56.0 and missed expectation of 55.9. PMI composite dropped to 55.0, down from 55.7, hit a 4-month low.

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

“The US economy lost a little pace in August, according to the flash PMI, but continued to grow at a solid rate. The PMI is indicative of the economy growing at an annualised rate of roughly 2.5%, down from a 3.0% indicated rate in July.

“Output, new orders and employment growth all moderated, adding to signs that the economy has cooled after strong growth in the second quarter. Backlogs of uncompleted work, a key indicator of future output and hiring, meanwhile fell for the first time for over a year, suggesting the slowing trend could persist into the fall.

“Manufacturing has led the slowdown, though the service sector has also come off the boil compared to the second quarter highs.

“Some of the slowdown can be attributed to supply shortages: jobs growth in manufacturing and services is being restricted by a lack of available workers, while factories are also constrained by a lack of raw materials, sometimes blamed on ‘panic-buying’ of safety stocks as well as a lack of transportation to ship goods around.

“However, the survey also found increased cases of companies reporting the need to cut costs, in part reflecting the recent steep rise in raw material prices, often linked to tariffs and shortage-related price hikes. Fortunately, input price inflation eased for a third successive month and average prices charged for goods and services rose at a slower rate than July’s post-recession high.”

Full release here

Wrapping up the data released from US.

Initial jobless claims dropped -2k to 210k in the week ended August 18, below expectation of 215k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -1.75k to 213.75k. Continuing claims dropped -2k to 1.727m in the week ended August 11. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -5k to 1.7355m.

PMI manufacturing dropped to 54.5 in August, down from 55.3 and missed expectation of 55.1. PMI services dropped to 55.2, down from 56.0 and missed expectation of 55.9. PMI composite dropped to 55.0, down from 55.7, hit a 4-month low.

House price index rose 0.2% mom in June, versus expectation of 0.3% mom. New home sales dropped to 627k in July, missed expectation of 651k.