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ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated overnight that the Governing Council remains comfortable with its current policy stance, telling European lawmakers that inflation is still expected to stabilise at the 2% target over the medium term. In an environment marked by elevated uncertainty, Lagarde stressed that a "data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach to monetary policy serves us well."

That message was reinforced by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, who said “many factors” point to the current level of interest rates being appropriate. Nagel downplayed recent inflation softness, arguing that the shortfall is "small, temporary deviations", while medium-term inflation dynamics remain firmly aligned with the ECB’s target.

Nagel emphasised that policy action would only be warranted if medium-term inflation expectations deviated “sustainably and noticeably” from target — something he said is clearly not happening.

Eurozone investor confidence showed notable improvement in February, with the Sentix Investor Confidence Index rising from -1.8 to 4.2, above expectations of -0.2 and marking the highest reading since July 2025. The improvement was broad-based. Current Situation Index climbed from -13.0 to -6.8, its strongest level since April 2023. Meanwhile, Expectations Index rose from 10.0 to 15.8, also the highest since last summer, pointing to growing belief that the worst of the downturn has passed.

Sentix described the data as a “silver lining” for the Eurozone economy, arguing that the recession phase has likely ended and an upturn is beginning. While private investors remain somewhat cautious, institutional investors appear to be turning decisively more optimistic, with professional expectations reportedly rising to +24 points.

Inflation concerns have not re-emerged despite volatility in commodity markets and firmer oil prices. Investors surveyed see little risk of renewed inflation pressure, a backdrop that should allow the ECB to maintain its current policy stance. Markets continue to expect monetary policy to remain mildly supportive, and "definitely do not anticipate a restrictive phase."

Full Eurozone Sentix release here.

After two volatile weeks, Gold appears to have regained its footing. Prices have stabilized around the 4,400 area and have since pushed back above 5,000, signalling that the first wave of profit taking has likely run its course. The sharp pullback from the record high was forceful, but the subsequent price action suggests sellers have become less aggressive, opening room for a tradable rebound in the near term.

Technically, the decline from 5,598.38 to 4,403.34 is seen as the initial phase of a broader medium-term correction. That phase now appears complete. Price action since 4,403.34 marks the second phase of this corrective process, which can unfold in a more complex and time-consuming manner rather than a simple straight-line rebound.

For short-term traders, the outlook is constructive. The exhaustion of the initial profit-taking wave raises the prospect of further upside in the near term. As long as pullbacks remain contained, momentum favours additional gains before sellers re-emerge in force.

In this context, 4,654.49 serves as the key tactical line. Any near-term dip should be contained above this level. On the upside, decisive break of 5,091.73 would open the way toward 100% projection of 4,403.34 to 5,091.73 from 4,654.59 at 5,342.98. . That level is a natural target for the current rebound and represents the upper boundary of what short-term traders should reasonably expect from this phase.

However, strength into the 5,340–5,598 zone is likely to attract another round of profit taking, particularly from longer-term holders. That supply should cap near-term upside and prevent Gold from immediately resuming its larger bull trend.

For long-term investors, patience is essential. The current rebound is not viewed as a trend resumption but as part of a broader consolidation correcting the entire advance from 1,614.50 (2022 low). While the long-term structure remains bullish, the market still needs time to absorb prior gains.

Any deeper pullback is expected to find stronger demand near the 4000–4400 accumulation zone, reinforced by 38.2% retracement of 1,614.60 to 5,598.38 at 4,076.57. Until fresh catalysts emerge, that area is the preferred zone for rebuilding long positions ahead of the next major uptrend, likely months rather than weeks away.