New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence index showed a marked improvement in August, rising from -13.1 to -3.7. The data suggests a positive shift in the economic outlook among New Zealand businesses. Own Activity Outlook also jumped from a tepid 0.8 to a robust 11.2.
Several other sub-indicators within the report signaled optimism. Export intentions rose from 1.5 to 7.5, indicating that businesses are more confident about overseas demand. Investment intentions climbed from -3.3 to -1.3, suggesting that companies are less hesitant about capital expenditures. Employment intentions also saw a notable uptick, moving from -1.6 to 4.6, pointing to potential job market expansion.
On the inflationary front, businesses appear to be less worried. Cost expectations decreased from 80.6 to 75.3, pricing intentions fell from 48.1 to 44.0, and inflation expectations eased marginally from 5.14 to 5.06. This cooling in inflationary pressure might be a welcome sign for both the market and RBNZ.
In their commentary, ANZ stated: “Many firms appear to have been pleasantly surprised at how well demand has held up, considering; and the Reserve Bank has stopped raising the OCR (Official Cash Rate), (while reserving the right to change their minds), which may be creating a sense that the worst is over.”
Full ANZ business confidence release here.
Fed Mester expects rates above 4% by early next year, and hold it there
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said, “my current view is that it will be necessary to move the fed funds rate up to somewhat above 4 percent by early next year and hold it there; I do not anticipate the Fed cutting the fed funds rate target next year.”
“It would be a mistake to declare victory over the inflation beast too soon. Doing so would put us back in the stop-and-go monetary policy world of the 1970s, which was very costly to households and businesses,” she added.