UK passed non binding vote to reject no-deal Brexit

    Sterling spiked higher after UK Commons passed yesterday a non-binding motion to reject no-deal Brexit under any circumstances. But the Pound quickly retreated again as focus will turn to vote today on whether to ask the EU for Article 50 extension. Also, question is on whether there would be a short extension of a long extension.

    The final motion was voted for by 321 to 278, a majority of 43. The motion reads: “This House rejects the United Kingdom leaving the European Union without a Withdrawal Agreement and a Framework for the Future Relationship”.

    The original motion was changed after the Spelman/Dromey amendment was narrowly passed by 312 to 308, just a mere majority of 4. The original motion reads: “This House declines to approve leaving the European Union without a Withdrawal Agreement and a Framework for the Future Relationship on 29 March 2019; and notes that leaving without a deal remains the default in UK and EU law unless this House and the EU ratify an agreement.”

    Prime Minister Theresa May, however insisted that the votes do not change the fundamental problem. And the only way to rule out no-deal is to vote for a deal. She also warned that if MPs do not vote for a Brexit deal soon, she will have to seek a long article 50 extension, which would mean the UK having to take party in the European elections.

    A European Commission spokesperson quickly responded:: “There are only two ways to leave the EU: with or without a deal. The EU is prepared for both. To take no deal off the table, it is not enough to vote against no deal – you have to agree to a deal. We have agreed a deal with the prime minister and the EU is ready to sign it.”

    GBP breached recent resistance briefly but settles back in established range quickly.

    Australia AiG services dropped to 48.8, two-speed pattern to gather pace

      Australia AiG Performance of Services Index dropped -0.4 to 48.8 in June. Looking at some details, sales plummeted by -8.8 to 41.9. Employment surged 7.9 to 55.3. New orders ticked down by -0.8 to 58.9. Input prices rose 0.3 to 69.0. Selling prices rose 5.3 to 67.2. Averages jumped 10.3 to 67.7.

      Innes Willox, Chief Executive Ai Group, said: “With interest rates rising for the first time in a decade, we have seen a ‘two-speed’ services sector emerge in June. Industries which are sensitive to sentiment changes – such as business & property, and personal & recreational services – declined into contraction. Less interest-rate-exposed services remained in a growth phase. With the RBA increasing rates by 50 basis points again this week, we would expect this two-speed pattern to gather pace.”

      Full release here.

      New Zealand ANZ business confidence rose to -33, still a huge tourism-shaped hole

        New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence rose another 9 pts to -33 in June’s preliminary reading, up from may’s -41.8. Activity outlook rose to -29.1, up from -38.7. Looking at some details, export intentions rose to 17.1, from -32.2. Investment intentions rose to -21.6, up from -31.7. Employment intentions rose to -34.0, from -42.4.

        The improvement reflected New Zealand’s “continued steady progress out of lockdown”, but “levels remain very low”. ANZ also noted, emerging into Level 1 lockdown, “disruption has waned, and normality beckons”. But “there is a huge tourism-shaped hole” in the economy. Also, “people will feel comfortable going into a shop or restaurant – that’s a huge win – but whether they’ll feel comfortable spending money is another question again.”

        Full release here.

        China won’t adjust global quota on wheat, corn and rice for US trade deal

          China’s Vice Agriculture Minister Han Jun told Caixin media that the country is not going to adjust overall annual quota for the three staple food despite the US-China trade deal phase one. The annual quotas are 9.64 million tonnes for wheat, 7.2 million tonnes for corn and 5.32 million tonnes for rice.

          “This is a global quota. We will not adjust for one country,” Han said. “China imports wheat, corn and rice from the international market, mainly to moderate the domestic surplus”. Han’s comments were in line with some expectations that China has to cut imports from other markets to accommodate the agreed increase in US agricultural products.

          Chinese Vice Premier Liu He has scheduled to travel to Washington from January 13 to 15, to sign the phase one trade deal with the US.

          BoE kept rate unchanged at 0.75% by unanimous votes

            BoE kept bank rate unchanged at 0.75% and held asset purchase target at GBP 435B as widely expected. Both decisions were made by unanimous votes.

            The central bank noted that since last meeting US-China trade war has “intensified” and global growth outlook has “weakened”. Monetary policy has been “loosened” in major many economics. Domestically, Brexit developments are making data “more volatile”. Underlying growth has “slowed” but remains “slightly positive”. Brexit uncertainties continued to “weigh on business investment”. But consumption growth has remained “resilient”.

            BoE also reiterated that “monetary policy response would not be automatic and could be in either direction.”. In case of smooth Brexit, “increases in interest rates, at a gradual pace and to a limited extent, would be appropriate”.

            Full release here.

            Canada employment grew 34.7k in Mar, unemployment rate unchanged at 5%

              Canada employment grew 34.7k in March, well above expectation of 10.2k. Employment gains in March were concentrated among private sector employees (+35,000; +0.3%). There was little change in the number of public sector employees and self-employed workers.

              Unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0%, better than expectation of 5.1%. That’s just above the record low of 4.9% recorded in June and July of 2022. Total hours worked rose 0.4% mom, 1.6% yoy. Average hourly wages rose 4.% yoy.

              Full Canada employment release here.

              ECB’s Villeroy sees broad agreement for Spring rate cut

                In an interview with Le Figaro, ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau revealed a “very broad agreement” within the council to initiate rate cuts in spring, with lasts until end of June.

                Villeroy, who also serves as Governor of Bank of France, expressed optimism that “we’re winning the battle against inflation”. The bank lowered core inflation forecast for 2024 from 2.8% to 2.4%. This revision aligns with more moderate wage increases, with average salaries expected to rise by 3.2%, down from the previously predicted 4.1%.

                On the growth front, Bank of France downgraded its 2024 growth projections slightly from 0.9% to 0.8%, with expectations for an acceleration to 1.5% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026. Villeroy confidently stated, “France will avoid recession.”

                 

                ECB Centeno: Must be patient and tolerant with deviations with inflation

                  ECB Governing Council member Mario Centeno said, “when we are reviewing the strategy, broadening the leeway of the allowable inflation trajectories, it is very important that the forward guidance is adapted to this new framework, otherwise it would lose credibility.” But he emphasized that “there is no overshooting logic or average inflation rate” in the new strategy.

                  Centeno explained that the new 2% symmetric inflation target means “positive or negative deviations are equally undesirable”. It gives “greater room for maneuver than before.” “The strategy admits a temporary and moderate inflation values above 2% … We must be patient and tolerant with deviations that we would not tolerate previously,” he said.

                  He also said the main cause of recent rise in inflation are “eminently temporary”. And, “it is expected that these factors, which will temporarily raise inflation in 2021, will not last and so our forecast for 2023 is 1.4%, significantly below 2%.”

                  BoE Carney’s future to be asked in inflation report hearing

                    BoE Governor Mark Carney will appear in the Parliament for Inflation Report hearing today. While his views on the economy and interest rates will be scrutinized as usual, there’s another topic to watch. That is, whether Carney will extend his term or not.

                    The BBC reported yesterday that Treasury is in talks for extending Carney’s term once more. Carney, started the job in 2013, originally planned to just serve just five years and has already extended the term once to mid 2019. On the other hand, the government’s spokesman James Slack reiterated that “the governor has said that he intends to step down in 2019. That is still the plan,”

                    To stay or not to stay is definitely a questions to be asked by lawmakers today.

                    For now, it’s uncertain who will succeed Carney. It appears that Andrew Bailey the chief executive of Britain’s Financial Conduct Authority and a former BoE deputy governor, is a front-runner. But the government could look abroad again for the candidate.

                    Fed Kashkari: Trade war uncertainty scaring people a little bit

                      Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari urged fed policy makers “should all be paying attention” to the escalation in trade tension between Trump and China. For now, “it’s too soon for any of us to judge” and “none of us knows how to weigh the probability of these different outcomes.” And, “how that washes out in overall inflation I think is hard to judge.”

                      He said the impact to the economy is unknown for the moment as “this could be a lot of chest pounding”. Or, “it could lead to a trade war.” The end results, even something in the middle as usual during negotiations, could prompt business and investors to “pull back” and that could impact economic growth. Also, “the impact on Main Street is going to be seen over the long term.”

                      Kashkari also noted that “uncertainty I think is scaring people a little bit.”

                      Swiss CPI unchanged at 1.7% yoy in Oct, core CPI rises to 1.5% yoy

                        Swiss CPI rose 0.1% mom in October, matched expectations. Core CPI (excluding fresh and seasonal products, energy and fuel) rose 0.1% mom. Domestic products prices was flat at 0.0% mom. Imported products prices rose 0.3% mom.

                        Annually CPI was unchanged at 1.7% yoy, matched expectations. Core CPI accelerated from 1.3% yoy to 1.5% yoy. Domestic products price growth quickened from 2.1% yoy to 2.2% yoy. Imported products price growth slowed from 0.5% yoy to 0.4% yoy.

                        Full Swiss CPI release here.

                        Wakatabe: BoJ won’t tighten in conducting upcoming policy assessment

                          In a speech, BoJ Deputy Governor Masazumi Wakatabe said “downward pressure” on the economy from the resurgence of COVID-19 is “likely to remain strong for the time being”. But the economy thereafter “will follow an improving trend, albeit only moderately”. The economy would be “supported by a recovery in external demand, accommodative financial conditions, and the government’s economic measures.” Risks are “skewed to the downside” though, and BoJ will “continue to examine developments in domestic and overseas economies carefully.”

                          Wakatabe added that the “the price stability target of 2 percent and the framework of “QQE with Yield Curve Control” have been working well to date”. There is “no need to change them”. The upcoming policy assessment will be conducted “on the manner of operations and various measures such as asset purchases.”

                          “In conducting the upcoming assessment, I would like to emphasize that the Bank does not intend to tighten monetary easing,” he added. “It also does not aim at only containing costs of policy measures. Rather, the Bank will consider how to be nimble in conducting effective monetary easing while taking care of costs.”

                          Full speech here.

                          Fed’s Kugler expects rate cut this year amid cooling demand

                            Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said overnight that if the disinflation process and labor market conditions evolve in line with her current expectations, a policy rate reduction within the year could be warranted.

                            “With demand growth cooling, given the backdrop of solid supply, my baseline expectation is that further disinflation can be accomplished without a significant rise in unemployment,” Kugler stated

                            “If disinflation and labor market conditions proceed as I am currently expecting, then some lowering of the policy rate this year would be appropriate,” she remarked.

                             

                            Nikkei hits 2-mth high, ready to extend near term up trend

                              Riding on broadly positive risk sentiment, Japan’s stock indexes surged to highest level in over two months. Topix finished 0.31% higher while Nikkei rose 0.56%. Among the gainers, air and land transportation shares are lifted by optimism that tourism is coming back to Japan.

                              Based on current momentum, Nikkei should be ready to resume the whole rebound from 24681.74. 28338.81 resistance is the first test, and break will target 100% projection of 24681.74 to 28338.81 from 25688.10 at 29345.17. For now, it’s still too early to call for long term up trend resumption in the index. 30k handle could still present huge psychological resistance. But in any case, further rally will remain in favor as long as 27251.24 minor support holds.

                              Meanwhile, it should also be noted that the long term outlook in Nikkei is staying bullish, despite the correction that lasted one and half year. It’s holding comfortably above 24129.34 structural resistance, as well as 55 month EMA. Both are keeping the up trend from 6994.89 (2008 low) intact.

                              China returned to trade surplus, but exports plunged -13.3% this year

                                In March, in USD term, China’s exports dropped -6.6% yoy to USD 185.2B. Imports dropped -0.9% yoy to USD 165.3B. Trade surplus came in at USD 19.9B. From January to March accumulative, exports dropped -13.3% ytd/y to USD 478.2B. Imports dropped -2.9% ytd/y to 465.0B. Trade surplus came in at just USD 13.2B.

                                Also year-to-March, exports to EU dropped -16% ytd/y to USD 70.5B. Imports from EU dropped -7% ytd/y to USD 55.2B. Exports to US dropped -25.2% ytd/y to 68.3B. Imports from US dropped -3.7% ytd/y to USD 27.5B.

                                Fed Williams: Interest rates are still very low, and we’ll likely raise them somewhat

                                  New York Fed President John Williams said overnight that the US is “in a great position”, where “unemployment is very low, the economy has got a lot of, I think good, positive signs and for us it’s just keeping a good balance. Keeping this economy strong and stable.”

                                  For now, Williams noted “interest rates are still very low”. And, “We’ll be likely raising interest rates somewhat but it’s really in the context of a very strong economy”. Though, he also noted that Fed is “not on a preset course”, but “we’ll adjust how we do monetary policy to do our best to keep this economy going strong with low inflation.”

                                  For December meeting, Williams said, “what we’re going to do over the next FOMC monetary policy meeting, we’re going to do what we’ve been doing as best we can – we’re going to find a … gradual path of the monetary policy back to a more normal level of interest rates.”

                                  Fed Kaplan: It’s a lot healthier to wean economy off asset purchases

                                    Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan told CNBC that by and large, businesses are “weathering Delta at least as well as previous surges”. Businesses and consumers are learning to adapt well. There is no demand problem in the economy too.

                                    He added that it would be “a lot healthier if Fed begins to wean economy off asset purchases”. Kaplan said he “would prefer to start taper soon but do it over plus or minus eight months, although I remain open-minded.” September meeting would remain his preference to announce tapering.

                                    BoJ Kuroda: Retail level CBDC is an option

                                      BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said in an online seminar that the central bank has not decided on central bank digital currency (CBDC) yet. But he noted it could be an option for securing a seamless and safe infrastructure.

                                      “CBDC is not the only way, so a national discussion is needed as to how to achieve this goal,” Kuroda said, adding, “retail level CBDC is an option.”

                                      BoJ started the second phase of the CBDC experiments in April. The process will last for around a year.

                                      German Ifo falls to 88.6, struggling to overcome stagnation

                                        German Ifo Business Climate fell from 89.3 to 88.6 in June, below expectation of 89.7. Current Assessment index was unchanged at 88.3, below expectation of 88.4. Expectations Index fell from 90.3 to 89.0, below expectation of 91.0.

                                        Ifo said that the German economy is “having difficulty overcoming stagnation”.

                                        By sector, manufacturing fell from -6.5 to -9.2. Services rose from 1.8 to 4.2. Trade fell from -17. to -23.5. Construction ticked up from -25.6 to -25.0.

                                        Full German Ifo release here.

                                        US initial jobless claims falls to 210k, vs exp 211k

                                          US initial jobless claims fell -2k to 210k in the week ending March 23, slightly below expectation of 211k. Four-week moving average of initial claims fell -750 to 211k.

                                          Continuing claims rose 24k to 1819k in the week ending March 16. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 3.5k to 1803k.

                                          Full US jobless claims release here.