China state media said trade war an opportunity to replace imports, promote localization or develop advanced manufacturing

    A front page article in China’s official People’s Daily newspaper said that the country is not afraid of “extreme measures” of the US regarding trade war. The article urged that “to deal with the trade war, what China really should do is to focus on doing its own thing well.” It also said China should use the situation “as an opportunity to replace imports, promote localization or develop export-oriented advanced manufacturing.”

    Another official news paper China Daily also said “the trade conflict will not force China to succumb to US pressure. Instead, given its economic resilience, it will squarely face those challenges, find the right solutions, and emerge stronger.”

    Canada Freeland repeats no deal is better than a bad deal ahead of NAFTA talk restart

      High level NAFTA talks between Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer will resume on Wednesday, working towards a US imposed deadline of October 1. head of the meeting, Freeland reiterated the government’s position that “no deal is better than a bad deal.” And she explained that “any negotiator who goes into a negotiation believing that he or she must get a deal at any price … (will) be forced to pay the maximum price for that deal.”

      On the other hand, Trump continued to attack Canada. He told reporters “we love Canada, we love the people of Canada, but they are in a position that’s not a good trade position for Canada.” And, “they cannot continue to charge us 300 per cent tariff on dairy products, and that’s what they’re doing.”

      Trump close ally House Republican Steve Scalise also warned that “there is a growing frustration with many in Congress regarding Canada’s negotiating tactics.” And, “members are concerned that Canada does not seem to be ready or willing to make the concessions that are necessary for a fair and high-standard agreement.” But it’s unsure how much this such a view is shared among congressmen.

      BoE Vlieghe: Wage growth still happening quite slowly

        BoE Gertjan Vlieghe said in an interview with the Newcastle Journal that wage growth is “still happening quite slowly”. And he pointed to 2% wage growth for “a couple of years” and its now “at about 2.5% or 3%” only.

        He noted “the general idea is an old one that is still valued”. That is, “at some point the unemployment rate is low enough that it gets increasingly difficult for employers to find workers or keep the ones they have.” He pointed to unemployment rate at 43-year low, “reports of skills shortages” and “job turnover” at a cyclical high. And that “creates pay pressures as their companies try to attract employees and stop their own from leaving”.

        But such development “has happened later in the process” and “it is only in 2017 we have been starting to see that.” He added one of the reasons was that employers did not reduce compensations during the financial crisis. Additionally, many people are classed as under-employment, showing that they’re only working part-time. Employment had turn to other method to compete for talent rather than just high pay.

        UK PM May urged EU to evolve its position on Brexit agreement

          UK Prime Minister Theresa May wrote in Die Welt newspaper that the agreement on an orderly Brexit is close be concluded. She said, “we are near to achieving the orderly withdrawal that is the essential basis for building a close future partnership.”

          However, May also urged that “To come to a successful conclusion, just as the UK has evolved its position, the EU will need to do the same. Neither side can demand the unacceptable of the other, such as an external customs border between different parts of the United Kingdom.”

          EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier also said yesterday that they “ready to improve” the Irish border backstop proposal. He added that “we are clarifying which goods arriving in Northern Ireland from the rest of the U.K. would need to be checked, where, when and by whom these checks would be performed.”

          Mid-US update: Yen selloff extends as US treasury yields surge

            Yen’s selloff extends in US session as risk appetite dominate the US markets while treasury yields also surge. Sterling follows as the second weakest. On the other hand, Australian Dollar continues to lead New Zealand and Canadian Dollar higher. The news of US tariffs and China’s retaliation are generally shrugged off by investors.

            At the time of writing, DOW is trading up 0.52%, S&P 500 up 0.60% and NASDAQ up 1.02%. In Europe, German DAX gained 0.40%, CAC up 0.21% but FTSE closed slightly down by -0.08%. Despite Dollar’s sluggishness, Gold continues to trade in tight range and struggles to hold above 1200 handle.

            We’d attribute the selloff in Yen to strength in US treasury yields. In particular, rally is stronger in the long end. At the time of writing, 30-year yield is up 0.040, 10-year yield is up 0.032 and 5-year yield is up 0.022. This is certainly a development Fed officials would love to see.

            10-year yield (TNX) took out 3.016 resistance this week and momentum persists. Now, further rise is likely towards 3.115 key resistance. We’re not too convinced that this key level could be taken out. So, we’d start to look for topping signal as TNX approaches 3.115. Accompanying it, we would likely see USD/JPY having a take on 113.17 resistance.

            UK PM May: European Parliament Weber welcomes Chequers proposals

              A spokesman of UK Prime Minister Theresa May said that Manfred Weber, Leader of the European People’s Party in the European Parliament, welcomed May’s Brexit plan.

              He said, “on Brexit, Weber recognized that the Chequers proposals were a step forward and stressed the priority the European Parliament placed on resolving questions relating to the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, as well as on maintaining the integrity of the Single Market.”

              And, “they also discussed the Future Framework and agreed that both the UK Parliament and European Parliament should be able to vote on a precise plan for the UK-EU relationship.”

              EU releases proposals on WTO reforms, defend multilateral trade system

                European Commission released their comprehensive approach for the modernisation of the World Trade Organisation today.

                In presenting the ideas, Commissioner for Trade Cecilia Malmström said: “The multilateral trading system has for the past decades provided a stable, predictable and effective framework for companies across the world, helping many economies to grow rapidly. Also today, the WTO is indispensable in ensuring open, fair and rules-based trade. But despite its success, the World Trade Organisation has not been able to adapt sufficiently to the rapidly changing global economy. The world has changed, the WTO has not. It’s high time to act to make the system able to address challenges of the today’s global economy and work for everyone again. And the EU must take a lead role in that.”

                The ideas in the proposal are related to three key ares:

                • updating the rule book on international trade to capture today’s global economy
                • strengthening the monitoring role of the WTO
                • overcoming the imminent deadlock on the WTO dispute settlement system.

                EU also noted that the US and Japan are engaged in the framework of trilateral discussions. A dedicated workgroup was set up during the latest EU-China summit. And EU pledged to discuss the ideas with other WTO partners in the coming weeks.

                Here is the press release. And a 17-page document detailing the proposals.

                Earlier today, the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China released an annual position paper. The 33-page paper detailed 14 common concerns faced by European companies in China, and listed out a accumulative total of 828 recommendations.

                This is how adults work!

                Trump: China attacking farmers “loyal to me”

                  Trump attacks China for attacking farmers, ranchers and industrial works “because of their loyalty to me”.  Civilians loyal to a leader? Sounds like it’s word out of the mouth of a dictator in an authoritarian country!

                  From Oxford dictionary – Patriot: A person who vigorously supports their country and is prepared to defend it against enemies or detractors.

                  Patriots are loyal to their country, not a person. A democratically elected president has to be loyal to the citizens. Not the reverse.

                   

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                  China announced retaliation, 5-10% tariffs on $60B US imports effective Sep 24

                    China formally announced its retaliation tariffs, in response to the tariffs on USD 200B in Chinese imports announced by USTR yesterday. In short, the tariffs will be effective at 12:01 local time on September 24. Total amount of American good involved values at USD 60B, Tariff rates are at 5% and 10%, much lower than prior proposed 5-25%.

                    China’s announce was made through the Ministry of Finance. 2493 lines of products in Annex 1 and 1078 lines of products in Annex 2 will be subject to 10% tariffs. 974 lines in Annex 3 and 662 lines in Annex 4 will be charged 5% tariffs.

                    Statement in simplified Chinese here.

                    Separately, China has also filed another complaint to the WTO regarding the new US tariffs.

                    Yesterday, the USTR announced 10% tariffs on USD 200B of Chinese imports, effect September 24, 2018. Starting January 1, 2019, the tariff rate will be increased to 25%.

                    Into US session: Euro picking up steam as trade war impacts fade

                      The markets seemed to have taken another escalation in trade war rather well. After some knee-jerk reactions, Dollar and Yen are back under selling pressure. Though, Sterling is the second weakest in between them as recent rally, in particular against Euro, lost steam. It’s possibly the time for Euro to pick up from speed. Though for now, the common currency is out-performed by commodity currencies, with Australian Dollar leading the way up.

                      The stock markets are also cool. At the time of writing, DTSE is up 0.04%, DAX up 0.18% and CAC up 0.18%. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei closed up 1.41%, Hong Kong HSI up 0.56% and Singapore Strait Times was just down -0.07%. Most notably, China Shanghai SSE reversed earlier loss and closed up 1.82% at 2699.95, just shy of 2700 handle. The strong close is indeed suggesting short term bottoming,just ahead of 2638.30 key support (2016 low). But question remains on how strong the rebound could be.

                      USD/CNH (offshore Yuan) is also steady. For now, we’re not anticipating sustained break of 6.8959 minor resistance. Another fall to 6.7776 is mildly in favor as the corrective pattern from 6.9586 extends.

                      EU companies in China releases report with 828 reform recommendations in 14 areas

                        The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China released an annual position paper today, urging China to accelerate reforms. The paper described the widening gap of the maturing economy and the shortcomings of reforms and opening agenda as “reform deficit”. Such reform deficit is seen as the “root cause” of tensions in the global economic tensions which resulted in the US-China trade war. And, “the strong reaction from the United States with its escalation of tariffs is, albeit undesirable, a direct response to these deficiencies, many of them longstanding.”

                        The paper examines 14 common concerns faced by European companies. These issues “continue to hold back China’s development and prevent businesses from serving their core function”. And the paper urged that “each of these issues should be viewed by Chinese officials as a challenge to overcome in the years ahead.”

                        The areas of concerns include access to licenses, complex and lengthy administrative procedures, consultation and communication, cybersecurity, IPR and R&D, overlapping regulations and interdepartmental coordination, market access barriers, SOE-related issues, standards setting, transparency issues, unclear regulations and unpredictable enforcement, unequal and unfair treatment, unfair procurement systems and SMEs. The 33-page paper listed out a accumulative total of 828 recommendations.

                        The press statement and full report can be found here.

                        Well… isn’t it “lead by example” that the US administration has to learn from?

                        Chinese Foreign Ministry: US showed no sincerity or good will for talks

                          Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said in a regular press briefing that “China has always emphasized that the only correct way to resolve the China-U.S. trade issue is via talks and consultations held on an equal, sincere and mutually respectful basis. But he criticized that “at this time, everything the United States does does not give the impression of sincerity or goodwill.”

                          He added the details on retaliation will be released at appropriate time, without giving any further information.

                          EU Tusk laid down three key Brexit issues to focus on at Salzburg meeting

                            Brexit will be an important topic in the upcoming European Council meeting in Salzburg on September 19 and 20. European Council President Donald Tusk laid out three key issues to focus on, in a statement:

                            • First, we should reach a common view on the nature and overall shape of the joint political declaration about our future partnership with the UK.
                            • Second, we will discuss how to organise the final phase of the Brexit talks, including the possibility of calling another European Council in November.
                            • Third, we should reconfirm the need for a legally operational backstop on Ireland, so as to be sure that there will be no hard border in the future.

                            Tusk said a no deal scenario is “still quite possible”. But, “if we all act responsibly, we can avoid a catastrophe.”

                            Separately, UK Brexit Minister Dominic Raab told Spiegel newspaper that Prime Minister Theresa May’s Chequers plan are “so far the only proposals that guarantee smooth trade between Britain and the EU and take account of the specific problems in Ireland.” And he saw “no other credible alternative, either from here or from the EU side.”

                            Raab also added that “We have already made extensive compromises.. We have shown ourselves to be very pragmatic and ambitious. Now the ball is in the European Union’s court.”

                            China MOFCOM said it’s left with no choice to retaliate simultaneously on new US tariffs

                              China Ministry of Commerce issued a brief statement in response to new round of US tariffs. It said “to protect its legitimate rights and interests and order in international free trade, China is left with no choice but to retaliate simultaneously”. Also, “the United States insists on increasing tariffs, bringing new uncertainties to bilateral trade negotiations. China hopes the United States would recognize the negative consequences of its actions, and take convincing steps to correct its behavior in a timely manner.”

                              No details are provided today. But based on information released last month, China already has a list of USD 60B of US goods to tariff.

                              Here is the link to MOFCOM’s statement in simplified Chinese.

                              Now the ball is in the US court again. Trump pledged to move on with tariffs on USD 267B in Chinese goods if China retaliates on the tariffs announced yesterday. Keeping going POTUS!

                              China CSRC Fang: Trump’s tactic won’t work with China

                                Fang Xinghai, vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) criticized that the Trump’s new round of tariffs on China has “poisoned” the atmosphere for negotiations. Fang also warned that “President Trump is a hard-hitting businessman, and he tries to put pressure on China so he can get concessions from our negotiations. I think that kind of tactic is not going to work with China.” Also, according to Fang, “if he puts tariffs on all Chinese exports to the United States – which he says he will – even in that scenario, the negative impact on China’s economy is about 0.7 percent.”

                                Separately, the South China Morning Post in Hong Kong reported, citing unnamed source, that China will not send delegation to the US for more trade talks after the new round of tariffs.

                                All in all, what’s next will depend on the outcome of Vice Premier Liu He’s meeting in Beijing on the issue.

                                Limited loss in Yuan and Chinese stocks as trade war escalation shrugged

                                  The financial markets reactions to new round of US tariffs on China are so far rather muted. Nikkei is actually rising over 1% at the time of writing. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.72%, Singapore Strait Times is down -0.55%. China’s Shanghai SSE dipped to 2644.30 but recovered. It’s now trading down -0.12% only at 2648.5, still kept above 2638 key support level (2016 low).

                                  In the currency markets, Dollar turns soft again after a brief lift from the trade war news. It’s trading as the weakest one together with Yen for now. Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar are the strongest ones.

                                  USD/CNH (offshore Yuan) edged higher to 6.8930 earlier today but there is no follow through buying to push it through 6.8959 minor resistance yet.

                                  RBA minutes reiterated no strong case for near term rate move

                                    The minutes of September 4 RBA meeting provided practically no surprise at all. most importantly, RBA reiterated that “the next move in the cash rate would more likely be an increase than a decrease.” However, “there was no strong case for a near-term adjustment in monetary policy.”

                                    RBA also noted that a few global central banks including the Fed were expected to continuing rate hikes. This had been reflected in the markets, “most notably a broad-based appreciation of the US dollar” that “raised risks” for some, especially for “fragile emerging” markets. However, “the modest depreciation of the Australian dollar was helpful for domestic economic growth.”

                                    The central bank also noted that there were “still significant tensions around global trade policy” that represented a “material risk” to the global outlook.

                                    Full minutes here.

                                    Also from Australia, house price index dropped -0.7% qoq in Q2, matched expectations.

                                    Canada Trudeau on NAFTA: Might be days or weeks away … it might not be

                                      Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland said yesterday that she will go to Washington again for more NAFTA talks this week. But the data is not fixed yet. She told reporters “we agreed we would continue to talk in Washington later this week … there are some conversations it’s better to have face-to-face and I think it’s absolutely the right thing for us to meet this week.” But no details were given.

                                      Prime Minister Justin Trudeau indicated again that he’s prepared if NAFTA talks breaks down. He said “We’re not there yet … we might be days or weeks away now, it might not be.” And he insisted in protecting “supply management” which is one of the deadlock in the negotiations. The so-called supply management system of import tariffs and production limits that ensure high prices for dairy, egg and poultry product in Canada.

                                      Responses on tariffs: Trump did not heed American warnings

                                        Here are some responses from the industry on Trump’s tariffs on China:

                                        The U.S. Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Thomas Donohue said in a statement, “today’s decision makes clear that the administration did not heed the numerous warnings from American consumers and businesses about rising costs and lost jobs on Main Street, in factories, and on farms and ranches across the country. ”

                                        Dean Garfield, president of the Information Technology Industry Council said in a statement, “President Trump’s decision to impose an additional $200 billion is reckless and will create lasting harm to communities across the country.”

                                        Hun Quach, the Retail Industry Leaders Association’s s vice president for international trade said in a statement, “we are extremely discouraged by the Administration’s announcement to levy tariffs on millions of products American consumers buy every day.” “We are disappointed to see that warnings from importers and exporters representing every sector of the U.S. economy have not been heeded with no time for mitigation.”

                                        Jay Timmons, National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) President and CEO, said in a statement “more U.S. tariffs and Chinese retaliation risk undoing that progress and moving our economy in the wrong direction.” “Now is the time for talks—not just tariffs”.

                                        Trump’s full statement on tariffs on USD 200B of Chinese goods

                                          Here is Trump’s own statement:

                                          Today, following seven weeks of public notice, hearings, and extensive opportunities for comment, I directed the United States Trade Representative (USTR) to proceed with placing additional tariffs on roughly $200 billion of imports from China. The tariffs will take effect on September 24, 2018, and be set at a level of 10 percent until the end of the year. On January 1, the tariffs will rise to 25 percent. Further, if China takes retaliatory action against our farmers or other industries, we will immediately pursue phase three, which is tariffs on approximately $267 billion of additional imports.

                                          We are taking this action today as a result of the Section 301 process that the USTR has been leading for more than 12 months. After a thorough study, the USTR concluded that China is engaged in numerous unfair policies and practices relating to United States technology and intellectual property – such as forcing United States companies to transfer technology to Chinese counterparts. These practices plainly constitute a grave threat to the long-term health and prosperity of the United States economy.

                                          For months, we have urged China to change these unfair practices, and give fair and reciprocal treatment to American companies. We have been very clear about the type of changes that need to be made, and we have given China every opportunity to treat us more fairly. But, so far, China has been unwilling to change its practices. To counter China’s unfair practices, on June 15, I announced that the United States would impose tariffs of 25 percent on $50 billion worth of Chinese imports. China, however, still refuses to change its practices – and indeed recently imposed new tariffs in an effort to hurt the United States economy.

                                          As President, it is my duty to protect the interests of working men and women, farmers, ranchers, businesses, and our country itself. My Administration will not remain idle when those interests are under attack.

                                          China has had many opportunities to fully address our concerns. Once again, I urge China’s leaders to take swift action to end their country’s unfair trade practices. Hopefully, this trade situation will be resolved, in the end, by myself and President Xi of China, for whom I have great respect and affection.