Market sentiment in the US remains fragile ahead of today’s CPI data for February, which is expected to be a major market-moving event. The challenge, however, lies in interpreting the impact of inflation data given the complex interplay between inflation trends, economic conditions, and Fed expectations. More importantly, the interaction is further complicated by the unpredictable shifts in US tariff policies. In the end, while traders may react initially to the numbers, they’re more likely to revert to pre-existing trends once the CPI risk is cleared.
Consensus forecast sees headline CPI dipping slightly from 3.0% to 2.9%, signaling that the uptrend from September’s low of 2.4% has finally ended. Meanwhile, core CPI is expected to ease marginally from 3.3% to 3.2%, but remains stuck in a narrow 3.2%-3.3% range since last June.
If the data confirms these expectations, it would reinforce the view that disinflation progress continued to stall. This, in turn, supports Fed’s cautious stance. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly stressed that the central bank is in no rush to lower interest rates, and today’s inflation data is unlikely to change that narrative.
Fed fund futures are currently pricing in a 97% probability that Fed will hold rates at 4.25%-4.50% in its upcoming March 19 meeting, making it almost a certainty. However, the outlook for Q2 is much murkier. Traders are factoring in a 38% probability of a cut in May and an 85% chance of a reduction in June.
Beyond the near term, the real test will come in April when reciprocal tariffs are formalized. Given recent stock market volatility, where recession concerns have already led to deep selloffs, any additional economic stress from tariffs could further push Fed toward an aggressive easing cycle.
Some economists have already noted that the May or June rate cut could indeed start a series of swift reductions in the second half of the year, if confidence deteriorates further—especially if the labor market weakens significantly.
Technically, DOW should have completed a double top pattern (45073.63, 45054.36) after breaking through 41844.89 support. While deeper pull back is now in favor, strong support could be seen around 40k zone to contain downside, at least on first attempt.
The 40k zone represents 39889.05 resistance turned support, as well as 38.2% retracement of 32327.20 to 45054.36 at 40192.58. This development would keep price actions from 45054.36 as a correction to rise from 32327.20 only, likely a sideway pattern.
However, decisive break of 40k will argue that DOW is already in an even larger scale correction, or enter a bear market as some would describe.
US PPI at 0.0% mom, 3.2% yoy in Feb, below expectations
US PPI for final demand as unchanged in February, coming in below expectations of 0.3% mom rise. The 0.3% mom increase in goods prices was offset by -0.2% mom decline in services.
On an annual basis, PPI slowed to 3.2% yoy, down from January’s 3.7% yoy and missing the expected 3.3% yoy reading.
PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services, rose 0.2% mom. Over the past 12 months, this measure advanced 3.3% yoy, maintaining a relatively steady pace.
Full US PPI release here.