An update on AUD/USD short

    Here’s an update on AUD/USD short (sold at 0.7100), last updated here.

    The trade is so far doing ok as risk aversion realized. But we’ve overestimated the strength in Dollar. Still, the price actions from 0.7040 to 0.7130 are corrective looking, which reinforces our bearish view. For now, we’ll keep the stop at 0.7185, slightly above 50% retracement of 0.7314 to 0.7040 at 0.7178. That’s because, theoretically speaking, consolidation pattern from 0.7040 could extend with another leg through 0.7130, even though it’s unlikely. Upon decisive break of 0.7040, we’ll lower the stop after AUD/USD settles below this level.

    Our view is unchanged that medium term fall from 0.8135 could be resuming long term down trend. Hence, we have not decided whether to exit at around 0.6826 low yet. We’ll monitor downside momentum in both 4H and daily chart to decide at a later stage.

    Trump scapegoats Fed as going crazy, wild and loco

      It really bothers us to report nonsense. But when there are headlines flying around that could have an impact on the markets, it’s hard not to talk about it.

      Trump launched another scapegoating attack on Fed and said, referring to the over 800 pts fall in DOW, “I think the Fed is making a mistake. They are so tight. I think the Fed has gone crazy.” He added “actually, it’s a correction that we’ve been waiting for for a long time, but I really disagree with what the Fed is doing.”

      Later he doubled down and said in a telephone interview that “the problem I have is with the Fed. The Fed is going wild. I mean, I don’t know what their problem is that they are raising interest rates and it’s ridiculous.” “The problem [causing the market drop] in my opinion is Treasury and the Fed. The Fed is going loco and there’s no reason for them to do it. I’m not happy about it.”

      It’s again typical Trump in blaming the others. When the stock market hit record highs, did we hear the praise that Fed has done a great job? When unemployment is at record lows, with inflation at target, is Fed given the credits for meeting it’s dual mandates? Trump claimed all the credits all the way. When things turn, it’s others’ faults.

      And, with federal funds rates at 2.00-2.25% and Fed still having a massive balance sheet, describing monetary policy as being “so tight” is a lie. When you disagree with what the Fed is doing, it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s crazy. Fed’s decisions are collective made by a committee of rational professionals and intellects. It looks more like Trump himself is the crazy one.

      And after all, he nominated Fed chair Powell and hired Treasurer Mnuchin. Add to the long list of people you hired and fired. If you keep on hiring the wrong people, then you are the problem, POTUS. You better quit.

      Anyway, enough rants. Let’s move on .

      Asia in crisis mode after US stock crash, a look at HSI

        Following the stock market crash in the US, Asia is also in crisis mode. At the time of writing, Nikkei is down -3.89%, Singapore Strait Times is down -2.7%, and China Shanghai SSE is down -4.52%. SSE has now broken 2016 low at 2638, which is a key support level, not for trade war, but for the crash in the US.

        Hong Kong HSI gapped down at open and is now down over -1000 pts, or -3.84%.

        The down trend started earlier this year as dragged down by China’s SSE. Now DOW also joined the party. Based on current momentum, HSI heading to 61.8% retracement of 18278.8 to 33530.6 at 24105.0 for sure. Realistic chance of some support could be found at 76.4% retracement at 21878.23. But let’s see. It could be worse if China SSE accelerates further downward after breaking 2600 handle.

        DOW already in medium term reversal? 24531 is next test

          Let’s have a look at DOW after yesterday’s steep, -831 pts or -3.15% fall.

          The strong break of 55 day EMA, coupled with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, is significantly raising the chance that it’s now in medium term reversal. From price structure point of view, there was also a beautiful wave four triangle from 26616.71 to 23997.21, followed by a short impulse wave five from 23997.21 to 26951.81. Unless DOW could get back above 55 day EMA quickly, otherwise, risk is now heavily on the downside.

          So how far could DOW fall to? If we take a less bearish view, it’s just correcting the uptrend from 2016 low at 15450.56 to 26951.81. Then, first support is 55 week EMA (now at 24531.54). Defending this support will keep the medium term intact and invalidate the above mentioned medium term reversal case. However, firm break there should at least send DOW back to 38.2% retracement of 15450.56 to 26951.81 at 22558.33 before bottoming.

          Mid-US update: DOW in crash mode, Dollar gets no support from treasury yields

            Risk aversion is the main theme in the first half of US session as stocks are in crash mode. DOW is trading down -1.4% or -370 pts. S&P 500 is down -1.30% and NASDAQ is down -1.86%. European indices are even worse, with DAX closed down -2.21%, CAC down -2.11% and FTSE down -1.27%.

            Strength in global treasury yields is being blamed as the reason for the stock market selloff. German 10 year bund yield closed up 0.0041 at 0.556, quite “confidently” above 0.5 handle. US yields are also rising so far, with 5 year yield up 0.009 at 3.066, 10 year yield up 0.012 at 3.220, 30-year yield up 0.017 at 3.387. But we have to emphasize that these three US yields are held below last week’s highs.

            In the currency markets, commodity currencies are the weakest ones naturally. But it should be noted that Dollar doesn’t get any lift from US yields and is trading as the third weakest for now, next to Canadian, Australian and New Zealand Dollar. Yen and Swiss are not the strongest neither. It’s Sterling that’s the biggest winner and Euro the second. It will take some more time for us to analysis what’s really happening. But for sure, it’s not as simple as rising yield and falling stocks. We’re not satisfied with this simplistic explanation.

            Anyway, USD/JPY finally made up its mind to break through 38.2% retracement of 110.37 to 114.54 at 112.94. Next target is 61.8% retracement at 111.96.

            EUR/USD will most likely take out 1.1549 resistance to indicate short term bottoming at 1.1431. It’s unsure, for now, whether it will extend the corrective rise from 1.1300 through 1.1814. But at least, more upside is in favor in near term.

            The bigger question for us is, whether DOW has topped out in medium term at 26951.81, earlier that we expected. It’s a beautiful short wave five impulse from 23997.21 after wave four triangle from 26616.71 to 23997.21. Unfortunately, for now DOW is still holding above 55 day EMA. Thus, we cannot make a call yet. Let’s see how it goes for the rest of the week.

            Into US session: Sterling recovers from GDP blip, Euro and Dollar firm too

              Entering into US session, Sterling is trading as the strongest one for today so far. Weaker than expected UK GDP triggered very brief retreat in the Pound. And Sterling quickly find its footing on Brexit optimism again. At the time of writing, Euro is the second strongest as Italian yield drops for another day. The selling climax in Italian bonds could have passed the climax for the near, possibly until credit agency rating actions. Dollar trades mildly high as consolidative price actions extend. Yen is the weakest one as sentiments stabilized and turned mixed. Kiwi is the second weakest, followed by Loonie.

              In Europe, CAC leads the way down by -0.71%, DAX is down -0.64% and FTSE is down -0.05%. Italian 10 year yield is dropping -0.0361 at 3.475. German 10 year bund yield is up 0.0049 at 0.556. German-Italian spread is no back below 300. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.16%, Hong Kong HSI rose 0.08%, China Shanghai SSE rose 0.18%. But Singapore Strait Times dropped -1.11%. 10 year JGB yield dropped -0.0065 to 0.156, still way above BoJ’s allowed band of -0.1 to 0.1%.

              German government to revise down growth forecasts to 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019

                Reuters reported, according to a document they obtained, German government slashed growth forecast for both 2018 and 2019 in the update to be released tomorrow. Growth is now projected to be at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019, down from prior projections of 2.3% and 2.1% respectively. For 2020, growth is expected to be unchanged at 1.8%. Weak global trade, lowered state consumption and softer auto sector are the causes for slower than expected growth.

                Inflation is projected to be at 1.9% in 2018 and rise further to 2.0% in 2019. The document also noted that “in view of the strong expansion of disposable income and moderate inflation, private consumption is likely to pick up noticeably.” House hold spending is expected to grow 1.6% in 2018 and 2.0% in 2019. State consumption is projected to grow 1.4% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. State investment is project to rise 5.9% in 2018 and 5.2% in 2019.

                According to IMF’s latest forecasts released earlier this week, German growth is projected at 1.9% in 2018 and 1.9% in 2019, revised down from April forecasts of 2.5% and 2.0% respectively.

                ECB Mersch: Global risks are gaining prominence

                  ECB Executive Board member Yves Mersch said in Singapore that the Eurozone economy is experience broad based expansion. And risks to growth remain “broadly balanced”. Overall, Mersch expect the expansion to continue as a “pace slightly above potential in the period ahead.” Inflation is expected to continue its rise thanks to “quite some” degree of monetary stimulus.

                  However, Mersch also warned that risks related to global factors, including “the threat of increased protectionism, the finalization of the Brexit negotiations and vulnerabilities in emerging markets are gaining prominence.”

                  UK GDP growth stalled in August, Sterling mildly lower

                    Sterling trades mildly lower after UK GDP miss. UK GDP was flat in August, grew 0.0% mom, below expectation of 0.1% mom. Though July’s figure was revised up from 0.3% mom to 0.4% mom. For the three months from June to August, GDP grew 0.7% from the  March to May quarter.

                    Commenting on today’s GDP figures, Head of GDP Rob Kent-Smith said: “The economy continued to rebound strongly after a weak spring, with retail, food and drink production and housebuilding all performing particularly well during the hot summer months. However, long-term growth continues to lag behind its historical trend.”

                    All three main sectors contributed to GDP growth in the three months to August. Services grew 0.42%, production grew 0.10%, construction grew 0.17%.

                    Full GDP release here.

                    Also from UK, industrial production rose 0.2% mom, 1.3% in August, above expectation of 0.1% mom, 1.1% yoy. Manufacturing production dropped -0.2% mom, rose 1.3% yoy, below expectation of 0.2% mom, 1.5% yoy.

                    Visible trade deficit widened to GBP -11.2B in August, above expectation of GBP -10.9B.

                    US Treasurer Mnuchin warns China on competitive Yuan devaluation

                      US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin warned China in a Financial Times interview on currency manipulation. He said that “as we look at trade issues, there is no question that we want to make sure China is not doing competitive devaluations.” Nonetheless, Mnuchin also acknowledged that Chinese Yuan “depreciated significantly” due to “various factors”. He added “one of those factors has to do with their own economic issues and what has gone on in the Chinese economy.”

                      Earlier this week, Bloomberg reported that Mnuchin faced pressure from within the White House to formally designate China as currency manipulator. The Treasury Department is expected to release its semiannual currency report later this month. And we’ll see Mnuchin’s eventual stance then.

                      There are clear rules for the Treasury to decide whether a country is manipulating its currency. Rules aside, as we argued in our report, China has been clearly intervening in the markets to “halt” or “slow” the sharp decline of the Yuan exchange rate. It’s clearly seen by almost everyone sensible in Asia that the Yuan and Chinese stocks are in deep trouble facing the risks of trade war escalations.

                      And it’s unknown why part of the US administration continued to lie about intention devaluation by China on the Yuan. Though, we wouldn’t mind the US just face the facts by naming China as currency manipulator and requests it stopping to support the Yuan exchange rate.

                      An update on AUD/USD strategy, short entered

                        Here’s an update on AUD/USD short strategy last updated here. We’ve sold AUD/USD at 0.7100 as it recovered to 0.7130.

                        Overall outlook is unchanged that decline from 0.7314 is seen as part of the down trend from 0.8135. Such decline is expected to extend to retest 0.6826 key support (2016 low). It’s early to tell, but there is prospect of resuming long term down trend through this 0.6826.

                        We’ll hold short in the pair first. Stop is place at 0.7185, slightly above 50% retracement of 0.7314 to 0.7040 at 0.7178. At this point, we have not decided whether to get out around 0.6826 low yet. We’ll monitor downside momentum in both 4H and daily chart to decide at a later stage.

                        UK Raab hinted at no Brexit deal in October, targeting November

                          UK Brexit Minister Dominic Raab told the parliament yesterday that the European Council meeting next week will be an ” important milestone” for Brexit negotiation. And he expected it to be “a moment where we will make some progress”. He added that ” negotiations were always bound to be tough in the final stretch”. But he remained “confident we will reach a deal this autumn.” His refrained comments suggested that he is targeting to complete the deal in November rather than October, as not enough progress was made. Raab also reiterated the Chequers proposal will deliver “frictionless trade with the EU that we have now”. But he urged the EU to “meet us half way”.

                          Separately, ITV reported that Prime Minister Theresa May’s chief negotiation Olly Robbins has made “meaningful progress” with EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier on Irish border issue. But no detail on the so called progress was revealed, nor the source. The Times reported that May is planning to have an extended discussion on Brexit at next Tuesday’s cabinet meeting to warp things up before the EU summit.

                          Fed Williams: Fed is nearing end of monetary policy normalization

                            New York Fed President John Williams said in speech that recent FOMC statement well summarized the current US economy, with the word “strong” appeared five times. And Fed “has attained its dual mandate objectives of maximum employment and price stability about as well as it ever has.” He added that “most indicators point to a very strong labor market” while “inflation is right on target:”

                            He expected fiscal stimulus and favorable financial conditions to provide “tailwinds” to the economy for more strong growth. He expected real GDP to grow by 3.0% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Unemployment rate is expected to edge down to slightly below 3.% next year. Price inflation is expected to move up a bit above 2%. But he added that “I don’t see any signs of greater inflationary pressures on the horizon.”

                            Regarding removal of “accommodative” language in latest FOMC statement, Williams said “these more concise statements do not signify a shift in our monetary policy approach.” And, they just “represent the natural evolution of the language describing the factors influencing our policy decisions “. And the changes in communications are signs that Fed is “nearing the end of the process of normalizing monetary policy”.

                            His full speech here.

                            Trump reiterated his criticism on Fed hikes

                              Trump criticized Fed’s rate hikes again in a CNBC interview from the south lawn of the White House. He said “I think we don’t have to go as fast”. And, he was “worried about the fact that they seem to like raising interest rates, we can do other things with the money.”

                              On the economy, Trump said “the numbers we’re producing are record-setting,” apparently referring the lowest unemployment rate in around 40 years. And, he added “I don’t want to slow it down, even a little bit, especially when you don’t have the problem of inflation”. And, on inflation he said “you don’t see that inflation coming back. Now, at some point it will and you go up”.

                              Though, he also repeated that he had no discussed the concerns personally with Fed Chair Jerome Powell and he likes to “stay uninvolved”.

                              European Wrap: Italian bond rebounds but Euro stays weak, Dollar reverses

                                Wrapping up the European session, Euro remains the weakest major currency for today. Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said he’s not pleased with German-Italian yield spread has widened to 315. But he expressed his confidence that when investors have thoroughly read the budget, markets will calm down.

                                It’s unsure if investors have really listened to Conte. But Italian 10 year yield did reverse earlier gain after hitting as high as 3.712. It’s now down -0.569 at 3.510. European stocks also reversed with DAX closed up 0.25%, CAC up 0.35% and FTSE up 0.06%. Though, the change in sentiments is not reflected much in Euro, except versus Dollar. Euro is indeed suffering deeper selling against Sterling and Australian Dollar.

                                On the other hand, Dollar is now the second weakest one, next to Euro, as it reversed some gains in US session. Pull back in treasury yields could be a factor. At the time of writing, 10-year yield is down -0.017 at 3.216. US stocks are treading water with DOW down -0.25%, S&P 500 down -0.14% but NASDAQ is up 0.07%.

                                Fed Kaplan: Inflation to stay around target next year and fiscal stimulus fades

                                  Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said Fed is reaching its dual mandate of price stability and full employment. He saw strong GDP growth this year. Nonetheless, he also pointed to recent surged in 10-year Treasury yield and said it’s “telling me that prospects for future U.S. growth are somewhat sluggish (and) that outward growth is looking a little more uncertain.”

                                  Besides also expected inflation to just stay around Fed’s target as the impact of fiscal stimulus fades in 2019. He added “to the extent that (inflation) gets above our target, our base case is that that move will be more gradual than something more sudden or substantial.”

                                  Into US session: Euro dives as Italian yield surges again

                                    Entering into US session, Euro is trading as the weakest one for today, followed by Sterling. Yen is the strongest one, followed by Dollar. Euro is clearly troubled by surging Italian yield again, as 10 year yield breached 3.7 level and is now up 0.1091 at 3.676. German 10 year bund yield is also up 0.008 at 0.542. But German-Italian spread widens to over 3.1 now.

                                    Additionally, the common currency is weighed down by IMF’s deep downgrade of 2018 Germany growth forecasts, from 2.5% to 1.9%. It’s reflected in European stocks indices too. German DAX is now down -1.14%, CAC down -0.74% and FTSE down -1.13%. Earlier today, Nikkei closed down -1.32%, Singapore Strait Times down -0.47%. Hong Kong HSI just lost -0.11%. China Shanghai SSE indeed closed up 0.17%.

                                    Looking ahead, economic calendar is very light in US session today. Any Brexit news will drive volatility in Sterling for sure. But the main focus is whether, or how far, US yield would extends recent rally.

                                    Italy EM Tria defends “prudent” budget plan, treasury yield breaks 3.7%

                                      Italian Economy Minister Giovanni Tria defended the country’s budget plan in a parliamentary commission today. He emphasized the the targets in the plan are “prudent”. Also, with the plan, Italy will “significantly reduce, within the first two years of this legislature, the growth gap with the Eurozone and bring about the first significant decrease in the debt ratio over the next three years.”

                                      Tria expected the plan to cut taxes and raise welfare spending to boost growth to 1.5% in 2019, 1.6% in 2020 and 1.4% in 2021. And with growth back to pre-crisis levels, Italy’s structural deficit full because of that. Under the plan, the overall budget deficit will be 2.4% in 2019, 2.1% in 2020 and 1.8% in 2021.

                                      Tria also told lawmakers that “a constructive dialogue with the EU Commission will start, and will look at the reasonable contents of what is contained in the budget”.

                                      Whether Tria is overly optimistic is debatable. But financial markets have clearly casts they no-confidence vote. Italian 10 year yield is on the rise again today and breaks 3.7% handle.

                                      German imports and exports contracted in August, more evidence of slowdown

                                        In seasonally adjusted term, German trade balance widened to EUR 18.3B in August. Export dropped -0.1% yoy while import dropped even more by -2.7% yoy. The data added further evidence that the German economy is losing momentum again. It also echoed industrial production data released yesterday, which unexpectedly contracted -0.3% yoy in August.

                                        In the updated forecasts by IMF, German GDP is expected to grow 1.9% in 2018, a large downward revision from April forecast of 2.5%> For 2019, growth projection was also revised to 1.9%, down from 2.0%.

                                        The German government is due to release its updated economy forecasts this Thursday. And it’s expected that there would be downward revision to growth for this year and next too.

                                        Full trade balance release.

                                        IMF downgrades global growth forecasts as risks materialized

                                          IMF downgraded global growth forecasts for both 2018 and 2019 as some downside risks identified earlier in April have been realized and “the likelihood of further negative shocks to our growth forecast has risen.” The risks included “rising trade barriers and a reversal of capital flows to emerging market economies”. Financial market conditions could “tighten rapidly” if trade tensions and policy uncertainty were to intensify. And, unexpectedly high inflation readings in the US could “lead investors to abruptly reassess risks”

                                          In several key economies, “growth is being supported by policies that seem unsustainable over the long term.” IMF warned that “these concerns raise the urgency for policymakers to act.” For the US, IMF said “growth will decline once parts of its fiscal stimulus go into reverse.” Also, US forecasts were downgraded “owing to the recently enacted tariffs on a wide range of imports from China and China’s retaliation”, At the same time, China’s 2019 forecasts was also marked down. IMF also warned that “domestic Chinese policies are likely to prevent an even larger growth decline than the one we project, but at the cost of prolonging internal financial imbalances.”

                                          • Global growth projected at 3.7% (3.9% prior) in 2018, 3.7% (3.9% prior) in 2019.
                                          • US growth projected at 2.9% (2.9% prior) in 2018, 2.5% (2.7% prior) in 2019.
                                          • Eurozone growth projected at 2.0% (2.4% prior) in 2018, 1.9% (2.0% prior) in 2019.
                                          • Germany growth projected at 1.9% (2.5% prior) in 2018, 1.9% (2.0% prior) in 2019.
                                          • Japan growth projected at 1.1% (1.2% prior) in 2018, 0.9% (2.9% prior) in 2019.
                                          • UK growth projected at 1.4% (1.6% prior) in 2018, 1.4% (1.5% prior) in 2019.
                                          • China growth projected at 6.6% (6.6% prior) in 2018, 6.2% (6.4% prior) in 2019.

                                          Current forecasts in October.

                                          Prior forecasts in April.

                                          IMF Blog post: Global Growth Plateaus as Economic Risks Materialize

                                          Full World Economic Outlook, October 2018