Sterling gapped lower as Brexit talks stalled at Irish border backstop again

    Sterling gapped lower as the week started with negative Brexit news again. The backstop on Irish border remained an unresolved issue despite efforts from both sides. And furthermore, as the negotiations stalled, there will be no more scheduled talks before the EU summit on later this week.

    EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier tweeted after meeting UK Brexit secretary Dominic Raab in Brussels that “Despite intense efforts, some key issues are still open, including the backstop for IE/NI (Ireland/Northern Ireland) to avoid a hard border.”

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    Brexit Ministry said that there was progress “in a number of key areas”. “However there remain a number of unresolved issues relating to the backstop. The UK is still committed to making progress at the October European Council.”

    Fed Evans: With procyclical fiscal policy and a very strong economy, interest rates might have to go above neutral

      Chicago Fed President Charles Evans reiterated his stance that interest rate might have to go to a bit restrictive. He said in a CNBC interview that “after many, many years of accommodative policy, which I have supported strongly because inflation’s now up at 2 percent, it’s time to readjust the policy stance at least to neutral.” Then, “let’s see how the economy is performing at that point and then we might have to do a little more after that.”

      He further explained that “I would say that with the unemployment rate headed to three and a half percent, we’re in a more normal environment where an accommodative stance of policy, when we’ve got procyclical fiscal policy and a very strong economy, we probably need to be a little bit on the above-neutral side, but I don’t know that we need to be a lot.”

      Into US session: Dollar pare losses and global stocks rebound

        Entering into US session, Dollar regains a lot of ground as global stock markets rebound today. Also, other than Trump, members of his administration tried to tone down the attack on Fed’s rate hikes. Nonetheless, Canadian Dollar and Australian Dollar are the strongest ones, not the greenback. Sterling is trading as the weakest, followed by New Zealand Dollar and then Euro. Overall, the forex markets have turned mixed.

        At the time of writing:

        • DAX is trading up 0.86%
        • CAC up 0.90%,
        • FTSE up 0.72%
        • German 10 year yield down -0.0024 at 0.518.
        • Italian 10 year yield is down -0.016 at 3.555.
        • US futures point to high open, with triple digit gains for DOW. But it’s still more than an hour to go.

        Earlier in Asia:

        • Nikkei closed up 0.46%,
        • Singapore Strait Times rose 0.71%,
        • Hong Kong HSI rose 2.21%
        • China Shanghai SSE is gained 0.91% to 2606.91, still below prior key support at 2638.

        US Mnuchin on Chinese Yuan, trade and Fed

          US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin met with China PBoC Governor Yi Gang on the sidelines of the IMF summit in Indonesia. Mnuchin said after the meeting that “I expressed my concern about the weakness in the (yuan) currency and that as part of any trade discussions, currency has to be part of the discussion. And he added that “we had a productive explanation from his standpoint on those issues” regarding Yuan’s depreciation against Dollar. It’s reported that Yi told people in a closed-door session that China’s monetary policy was on an opposite cycle to that of the US.

          Mnuchin declined to comment on whether China would be named a currency manipulator in the upcoming Treasury report. But he emphasized that “The currency report is something we report to Congress. It is done pursuant to two separate pieces of legislation. This is not a political document.”

          But on trade, Mnuchin insisted that”It has to be that we can reach an agreement on action items that can rebalance the relationship. We’ve made it clear that if they have real action items that they want to discuss that we will listen.”

          On Fed, Mnuchin said “The president likes low interest rates. The president is concerned about the Fed raising interest rates too much and slowing down the economy and those are obviously natural concerns.” Meanwhile he called this week’s stock market rout as a ” natural correction after the markets were up a lot”. And according to Mnuchin, it’s not related to high interest rates and Fed policy and “there’s really no new information in the market on the Fed or on trade for that matter.”

          ECB Draghi: Cliff-edge Brexit a significant downside risk to financial stability

            ECB President Mario Draghi reiterated in an IMF conference that “broad-based growth in the euro area will continue.” He added the central bank’s policy measures “continue to underpin domestic demand, which remains the mainstay of the ongoing expansion.” Global expansion will also continue to benefit Eurozone exports.

            On inflation, higher headline inflation reflected rise in energy prices. “While measures of underlying inflation remain generally muted, they have been increasing from earlier lows.” And he echoed the monetary policy account that “uncertainty around the inflation outlook is receding.” While ECB is on course to stop asset purchases, he emphasized that “significant monetary policy stimulus is still needed to support the further build-up of domestic price pressures and headline inflation developments over the medium term.”

            On financial stability, he said “recent episodes of heightened financial market volatility have led to only limited contagion across countries and markets.” However, “the uncertainty triggered by a cliff-edge Brexit could have the potential to pose a more significant downside risk to financial stability.”

            His full speech here.

            UK Hammond on Brexit negotiation: Positive process, challenging substance

              Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond said that there are still big issues to resolve in Brexit negotiation. He said “what has happened over the last week, ten days, is that there has been a measurable change in pace.” However, “that shouldn’t conceal the fact that we still have some big differences left to resolve. So process is a lot more positive this week – substance still very challenging.”

              Separately, it’s reported that Prime Minister Theresa May is going to make a public statement saying UK “will not agree to be trapped permanently in a customs union in any circumstances”.

              Argentine Dujovne: Trade tensions faced among G20 members

                Argentine Treasury Minister Nicolas Dujovne, chairm of this year’s G20 finance leaders’ meeting, said in urged the countries involved to solve trade tensions, in a the summit in Indonesia. He said, “we recognize we are now facing trade tensions among members of the G20”, without directly naming the US or China.

                And he added that “the G20 can play a role in providing the platform for discussions. But the differences that still persist should be resolved by the members that are directly involved in the tensions.”

                Dujovne also added “we agree that international trade is an important engine of growth, and that we need to resolve tensions which can negatively affect market sentiment and increase financial volatility”.

                Separealy, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that “I expressed my concern about the weakness in the (yuan) currency and that as part of any trade discussions, currency has to be part of the discussion.”

                China exports to US grew despite trade war, imports shrank for another month

                  China’s trade surplus surprisingly widened in September, as trade surplus with US jumped to record high at USD 34.1B. As trade war started and escalated to another phase, exports to US continued to grow while imports from the US contracted for another month. For the year as a whole, China continued to have faster import growth with EU, than exports.

                  In USD terms, China’s trade surplus widened to USD 31.7B in September, well above expectation of USD 19.4B. Exports rose 14.5% yoy to USD 226.7B. Import rose 14.3% yoy to 195.0B.

                  For the month of September

                  • Exports to EU rose 1.2% mom, 11.4% yoy to USD 37.4B. Imports from EU dropped -0.6% mom, rose 9.1% yoy to USD 24.7B. Trade surplus rose 9.9%, 37.7% yoy to USD 12.7B.
                  • Exports to US rose 5.2% mom, 14.0% yoy to USD 46.7B. Imports from US dropped -5.8% mom, -2.3% yoy to USD 12.6B. Trade surplus rose 9.9% mom, 21.5% yoy to USD 34.1B.

                  From January to September

                  • Exports to EU rose 11.4% yoy to USD 301.5B. Imports from EU rose 14.1% to USD 205.2B. Trade surplus rose 6.1% yoy to USD 96.3B.
                  • Exports to US rose 12.9% yoy to 348.8B. Imports from US rose 8.3% to USD 123.0B. Trade surplus rose 15.5% to USD 225.8B.

                  Sep 2018 figures, Aug 2018 figures, Sep 2018 figures

                  IMF downgrades 2019 Asia growth forecasts, including Australia, Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, China, India

                    In the regional outlook report released today, IMF downgraded Asia growth forecasts in 2019 due to financial market stress and trade tensions. But it maintained that “near-term outlook for Asia remains positive, supported by steady global momentum and broadly accommodative policies”. Also, “Asia continues to be the main growth engine of the world”.

                    Overall Asian growth is projected to be at 5.6% in 2018 and 5.4% (downgraded by -0.2%) in 2019. For 2019, four of the seven advanced economies got growth projections downgraded, including Australia at 2.8% (-0.3%), Hong Kong 2.9% (-0.3%), Korea 2.6% (-0.3%), Singapore 2.5% (-0.2%). Taiwan got an upgrade to 2.4% (+0.4%), so did New Zealand at 3.0% (+0.1%). Japan’s forecast was unchanged at 0.9%. Overall emerging Asian economies was downgraded to 6.3% (-0.3%) in 2019. China’s growth was downgraded to 6.2% (-0.2%), India to 7.4% (-0.4%).

                    Additionally, IMF cited the following near-term downside risks to the forecasts:

                    • Escalating trade tensions
                    • Tighter global financial conditions
                    • Homegrown risks

                    And it urged the following policy actions:

                    • strengthen macro building blocks
                    • liberalize trade and investment
                    • strengthen productivity prospects
                    • seize the opportunities of, while addressing the spillovers from, the digital economy

                    IMF’s release and full report.

                    US Treasury not to name China a currency manipulator, just keep it in monitoring list

                      There are media reports came out yesterday saying that US Treasury is not going to name China a currency manipulator in the upcoming report to be released later in the month. Though China will remain on a monitoring list due to the huge trade surplus with the US.

                      That could put Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin under even bigger pressure from Trump and the trade hawks in his administration. Mnuchin is clearly the one who preferred to and tried to line up restart of negotiation with China. But he has been receiving cold shoulders from his colleagues.

                      And Trump seemed to have gotten impatient with Mnuchin. If should be reminded that Trump didn’t just complained Fed for rate hikes. In his words, he said earlier “The problem [causing the market drop] in my opinion is Treasury and the Fed. The Fed is going loco and there’s no reason for them to do it. I’m not happy about it.”

                      In a Bloomberg interview yesterday, Mnuchin declined to comment and only said “We are concerned about the depreciation” of the yuan, he said, “and want to make sure that it’s not being used as a competitive devaluation.”

                      USD/CNH (offshore Yuan) was rejected from 6.9586 high yesterday, mainly thanks to Dollar’s broad based selloff. It’s technically still bounded inside a near term rising channel. Thus, more upside (that is more downside in Yuan) could be seen. But the corrective structure of the choppy rise from 6.7776 warrants that 6.9586 won’t be broken even in case of another rise.

                      Time for a rebound? A look at DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ after another day of selloff

                        The recovery attempt in the US stock markets failed overnight. DOW lost another -545.91 pts or -2.13% to close at 25052.83. S&P 500 dropped -57.31 pts or -2.06% to 2728.37. NASDAQ fell -92.99 pts or -1.25% to 7329.06.

                        DOW move further away from 55 day EMA affirms the case that it’s in medium term correction. That is, fall from 26951.81 is corrective the up trend from 15450.56, in a less bearish case. Eventually, it might decline to 38.2% retracement of 15450.56 to 26951.81 at 22558.33 before forming a real bottoming. Nonetheless, the next line of defense come is between 23997.21 structural support and 55 week EMA (now at 24512.04). Some interim support could be seen there. But looks like there’s some more downside for the near term.

                        However, S&P 500 is already in proximity to equivalent support zone. That is, 2691.99 structure support and 55 week EMA (now at 2713.94).

                        NASDAQ is well above equivalent structure support at 6926.97. But it’s already pressing 55 week EMA (now at 7306.12).

                        So, the conditions are starting to be in place for an interim rebound, before weekly close or next week. (Well admittedly, it actually sounds rather trivial after the steep losses this week, stocks are ready for short covering recovery.)

                         

                        Mid-US update: Stocks stablized as treasury yields dive, EUR/CHF and Gold upside breakouts

                          There is tentative sign of stabilization in US stock markets today. DOW initially extended the selloff to as low as 25226.16. The tamer than expected inflation reading just provided brief support to investor sentiments. However, as bond yields’ decline gathers momentum, stocks are back to life. At the time of writing, DOW is down just -0.01%, S&P 500 down 0.13% and NASDAQ is indeed up 0.56%. 10-year yield is down -0.060 at 3.165. 30 year yield is down -0.056 at 3.342. European markets didn’t enjoy the recovery, closing a little too early. FTSE closed down -1.94%, DAX down -1.48%, CAC down -1.92%.

                          In the currency markets, Swiss Franc is undoubtedly the weakest one for now, followed by Yen and then Dollar. New Zealand, Australia and Canadian Dollar are the strongest ones.

                          One development to note is that EUR/CHF has firmly taken out 1.1452 resistance decisively. The development should confirm bullish reversal after drawing support from 1.1154/98 key support zone. Further rise is now in favor back to 1.1713 resistance next.

                          Another development is gold’s break of 1214 resistance Rebound from 1160.36 is extending. But we’d expect 1235.24/1236.99 cluster resistance zone (38.2% retracement of 1365.24 to 1160.36 at 1238.62, 100% projection of 1160.36 to 1214.30 from 1183.05 at 1236.99) to limit upside.

                          Gold finally breaks 1214, 1235/6 is the key resistance

                            Gold finally breaks 1214.30 resistance to resume the rebound from 1160.36, with strong upside momentum. Further rally would now be seen. But at this point, we’re seeing such rally as a correction to the fall from 1365.24 to 1160.36. The key lies in 1235.24/1236.99 cluster resistance zone (38.2% retracement of 1365.24 to 1160.36 at 1238.62, 100% projection of 1160.36 to 1214.30 from 1183.05 at 1236.99). For now we’d expect this resistance to hold to bring down trend resumption.

                            However, decisive break there will argue that the trend could have reversed and further rally might be seen back to 61.8% retracement at 1286.97 and above.

                            White House Kudlow: US is the hottest economy in the world right now

                              In a CNBC interview, National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow referred to Trump’s attack on Fed and said “The president has his own views. He’s stated them many times. There’s nothing new here as far as I can tell.” But Kudlow also added “We all know the Fed is independent. The president is not dictating policy to the Fed. He didn’t say anything remotely like that.”

                              Kudlow described the stock market fall yesterday is a “normal correction in a bull market”. And he emphasized “the economic numbers are superb across the board.” Also, he said “We are the hottest economy in the world right now. We’re crushing it … Europe is slowing down. Asia is slowing down. We are moving rapidly.”

                              Dollar lower as US core CPI failed to accelerate, initial jobless claims rose

                                Dollar trades generally lower in early US session after slightly lower than expected inflation reading. Headline CPI slowed from 2.7% yoy to 2.3% yoy, missed expectation of 2.4% yoy. Core CPI was unchanged at 2.2% yoy, missed expectation of 2.3% yoy.

                                Initial jobless claims rose 7k to 214k in the week ended October 6, missed expectation of 205k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 2.5k to 209.5k. Continuing claims rose 4k to 1.66m in the week ended September 29. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -10k to 1.656m, lowest since August 18, 1973.

                                Also released Canada new housing price index rose 0.0% mom in August, missed expectation of 0.2% mom.

                                ECB: Uncertainty around the inflation outlook was receding

                                  The accounts of September ECB monetary policy meeting provide no surprise nor anything of particular importance. One thing to note is that the Governing Council was more comfortable with the inflation outlook. It’s noted that there was “broad agreement” on the “progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation”. And, “while measures of underlying inflation remained generally muted, they had been increasing from earlier lows.”

                                  ECB added that “Comfort was drawn from the strengthening and broadening of domestic cost pressures, which were supported by the ongoing economic expansion, high levels of capacity utilisation and increasing labour market tightness, which was leading to rising wages.” Most importantly, “uncertainty around the inflation outlook was receding.”

                                  Full accounts here.

                                  Pre-US update: China stock breaks critical support, AUD & NZD shrug and turn stronger

                                    Global stock market rout continues in European session. At the time of writing, DAX is down -1.21%, CAC down -1.41%, FTSE down -1.74%. German 10 year bund yield is dropping -0.048 at 0.508. We’ll see if it can defend 0.5 handle. Italian yield rises 0.089 to 3.593. That is, German-Italian spread is back above 300 again.

                                    In the currency markets, despite risk aversion, Australian and New Zealand Dollar are the strongest one today. One explanation is that due to global stock market turmoil, there is less risk of monetary policy divergence between AU/NZ and the rest of developed world. Of course this one is a bit far fetched. On other hand, Dollar is the weakest one, followed by Yen and Sterling.

                                    But again, the weekly picture is usually more accurate. Yen is the strongest one followed by New Zealand Dollar and then Sterling. Canadian Dollar is the worst performing, followed by Dollar and then Euro.

                                    In Asia, Nikkei lost -3.89% to 22590.86. Singapore Strait Times lost -2.69% to 3047.39. Hong Kong HSI fell -3.54% to 25266.37.

                                    China Shanghai SSE dropped -5.22%, to close at 2583.46. Remember that PBoC announced some surprised measures during the last Sunday. Clearly, they’re no able to stop China from following global trend. The SSE has now closed below key support level of 2638.3 (2016 low). The whole down trend from 5178.28 is resuming. Barring any government intervention, the index will likely head towards 61.8% projection of 5178.19 to 2638.30 from 3587.03 at 2017.37 in medium term. It’s just the beginning of a serious down turn in China.

                                    ECB Hansson: Rather risky to be more precise in forward guidance now

                                      ECB Governing Council member Ardo Hansson said urged not to be more specific on forward guidance yet. He said “To be any more precise than that, to lock in a date, to tie our hands would be rather risky”. Instead, “when we get closer, we can have another discussion if we need to adjust the language again, but this is not a debate we are going to have just yet.”

                                      Separately, another Governing Council member Olli Rehn “core inflation is still rather weak in the euro zone at around 1 percent, as it has been for the last couple of years, so an accommodative monetary policy is still needed in Europe.”

                                      Fed Bullard: No need to do more on monetary policy normalization

                                        St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said “with respect to the (monetary policy) normalization, we have already reached a point when policy rates are in a good position.” And he suggested that Fed policymakers “don’t need to do much more to normalize policy.”

                                        Separately, he also welcomed the USMCA North America trade agreement. He said “this is very good news, because it shows that despite the ups and down of negotiations, you can reach a conclusion …on trade relations.” And he hope the US “can get deals like this elsewhere and we might get the uncertainty down on this issue.”

                                        IMF Lagarde urged to de-escalate trade wars for the innocent bystanders

                                          In a conference in Indonesia, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde urged countries to “de-escalate” trade wars was they could hurt “innocent bystanders”. She said, “We certainly hope we don’t move in either direction of a trade war or a currency war. It will be detrimental on both accounts for all participants… and there would also be lots of innocent bystanders.”

                                          Regarding recent depreciation of the Chinese Yuan, Lagarde said it’s mainly driven by the strengthen of Dollar. And she noted that Yuan has not depreciated as much against a basket of currencies. She acknowledged that “we’re seeing more and more countries, China included, let their currencies fluctuate.” At the same time she also supported “the move of China toward (currency) flexibility” and urged China to go down that path.”