Italy Salvini: No longer be servant of silly EU rules

    In Italy, Deputy Prime Minister, leader or eurosceptic League, Matteo Salvini pledged that the country won’t change the 2019 budget despite rejection by the European Commission. He emphasized that “Italians come first” and “Italy no longer wants to be a servant to silly rules.” And he also explained that Italy has to “do the opposite” of previous government to boost growth and lower debt.

    European Economic Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said the EU and Italy are “still in a constructive dialogue even if it is within a clear framework… My door is always open and I hope that the Italian government will listen to this message.”

    Japan PMI manufacturing rose to 53.1, export sales rose for the first time since May

      Japan PMI manufacturing rose to 53.1 in October, up from 52.5 and beat expectation of 52.6. Markit noted that “growth of key macroeconomic variables (output, new orders and employment) all accelerate”, and “rates of input cost and output price inflation both quicken to multi-year highs.”

      Commenting on the Japanese Manufacturing PMI survey data, Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey, said:

      “Following a rather disappointing slew of PMI data over the third quarter, Japan’s manufacturing sector looks set to start Q4 on a more upbeat note. The latest survey indicated stronger expansions in all the key barometers of macroeconomic health, with output, new order and employment growth quickening since September. Furthermore, export sales rose for the first time since May, despite several respondents highlighting problems arising from global trade tensions.

      “That said, next month’s data will be important to assess whether the latest growth rebound is a transitory response to weakness resulting from recent natural disasters.”

      Full release here.

      House Brady agreed to work on 10% middle class tax cut

        House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady, Republican, said in a statement to work with the White House on delivering the 10% tax cut for the middle class. In the statement, he said “resident Trump believes American families deserve to keep more of what they work so hard to earn. We agree. After all, it’s your money – not Washington’s.”

        Brady added “We will continue to work with the White House and Treasury over the coming weeks to develop an additional 10 percent tax cut focused specifically on middle-class families and workers, to be advanced as Republicans retain the House and Senate.”

        Brady’s statement here.

        Trump unsure if he regrets on Fed Powell

          Trump repeated his attack on Fed and its Chair Jerome Powell again yesterday. He told WSJ that “I’m very unhappy with the Fed because Obama had zero interest rates”. And, referring to Powell, Trump added, “every time we do something great, he raises the interest rates”, and Powell “almost looks like he’s happy raising interest rates.”

          Asked if he regrets nominating Powell, Trump said it’s “too early to tell, but maybe”. Further, when asked on what circumstances would lead him to remove Powell, Trump said “I don’t know”. That’s already a shift in stance from “I’m not going to fire him” on October 11.

          Fed Bostic: With strong economy, rate hikes to neutral appropriate

            Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said is a speech that the US economy is “in a good place”, and he “struggled to come up with sufficient variations on the word ‘strong'”.  And to him strong economy means “able to withstand great force or pressure”. “Tariffs, trade restrictions, and market volatility” are the headwinds. But there are also tailwinds in “recent tax reform and fiscal stimulus”. And because of strong GDP numbers in Q2 and Q3, he’s revised up 2018 and 2019 growth projections.

            On monetary policy, he said “unless the data talk me out of it, I view a continued, gradual removal of policy accommodation as appropriate until we get to a neutral policy rate.” And he emphasized that the current Fed policy rate “has not yet reached a neutral stance” and Fed is “still providing accommodation”. The Fed has “yet to pump the brakes”.

            Bostic’s full speech A View of the Fed’s Policy Path.

            Today’s top mover AUD/JPY: Bearish but no commitment yet

              In such a day of global stock market selloff, it’s unsurprising that AUD/JPY is the top mover so far.

              But we’d like to point out that, as in EUR/JPY and even USD/JPY, Yen bulls seem refusing to commit for now. AUD/JPY breached 79.05 support but quickly recovered. It could take more time for them to make up their mind.

              For AUD/JPY specifically, it might be because it’s now close to key long term fibonacci level of 61.8% retracement of 72.39 to 90.29 at 79.22.

              But after all, outlook in AUD/JPY is rather bearish as it’s staying comfortably below falling 55 day EMA and falling 55 week EMA. So, as long as 80.48 resistance holds, we’d expect further downside ahead. Break of 78.67 low should be seen next. And in that case, next target will be 78.6% retracement of 72.39 to 90.29 at 76.22.

              Mid-US update: Risk aversion dominates, Yen surges but bulls seem refusing to commit further

                Yen remains the strongest one for today at the time of writing as global market rout spreads to the US. Swiss Franc trails as the second strongest.

                On the other hand, Australian Dollar is the weakest one while Dollar is not that far away.

                DOW is currently down -1.45 at 24949 after dropping to as low as 24768.79 earlier today. The break of 24899.77 support indicates resumption of the whole decline from 26951.81 and suggests more downside ahead. S&P 500 is down -1.98% while NASDAQ is even worse, down -2.15%.

                Treasury yields are also in red with 10 year yield down -0.49 at 3.324.

                However, we’d like to point out that despite the strong rally, Yen bulls seem refusing to commit yet. USD/JPY is held by 111.94 minor support for now. EUR/JPY breached 128.32 low but quickly recovered. More is needed to confirm the strength of Yen.

                In Europe:

                • FTSE closed down -1.24% at 6955.21, broke 7000 psychological level
                • DAX closed down -2.17% at 11274.28
                • CAC closed down -1.69% at 4967.689, below 5000 psychological level.
                • Italian 10 year yield jumped 0.10003 to 3.58 after EU rejection of Italian budget
                • German 10 year yield is down -0.0407 at 0.411. German-Italian spread is back above 310.

                Italy Di Maio demands respect from EU after unsurprised budget rejection

                  Italian Deputy Prime Minister, leader of the Five-Star Movement Luigi Di Maio said in his Facebook page that European Commission’s rejection of the country’s budget is not a surprise. He said, “this is the first Italian budget that the EU doesn’t like. I am not surprised. This is the first Italian budget that was written in Rome and not in Brussels.”

                  And he added “with the damage they had done before, we could not continue with their policies”, referring to the European commission”. Di Maio pledged to ” continue to tell the European commission what we want to do with respect. But equally respect must be for the Italian people and the government that represents it today.”

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                  DOW selloff intensifies, breaks 24899 near term support

                    DOW opens sharply lower today and after initial recovery attempt, selling intensifies again. At the time of writing it’s down -500 pts, or -1.98% at 24817. Technically, the break of 24899.77 support confirms resumption of whole decline from 26951.81 high. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 26951.81 to 24899.77 from 25817.68 at 24549.51.

                    In the longer term picture, fall from 26951.81 is seen as corrective whole up trend fro 15450.56 (2016 low). Such correction would extend to 38.2% retracement of 15450.56 to 26951.81 at 22558.33 before completion.

                    EU formally rejects Italy budget, Italian yield jumps above 3.55%

                      European Commission formally rejects Italy’s budget after its regular meeting. Vice President For the Euro Valdis Dombrovskis said in a press conference that “today, for the first time, the Commission is obliged to request a euro area country to revise its draft budget plan.”

                      He added, “we see no alternative than to request the Italian government to do so. We have adopted an opinion giving Italy a maximum of three weeks to provide a revised Draft Budgetary Plan for 2019,”

                      Regarding Italy’s letter to the Commission yesterday, Dombrovskis said “Unfortunately, the clarifications received yesterday were not convincing to change our earlier conclusions of a particularly serious non-compliance with the recommendation addressed to Italy by the Council on the 13th of July.” And, “the Italian Government is openly and consciously going against the commitments it made.”

                      The Commission now requests Italy to amend the draft buget in the next three weeks for resubmission. And, the Commission is ready to open a disciplinary process called the excessive deficit procedure against Italy.

                      Italian 10 year yield jumps notably after the news as it’s now back at 3.556, after dipping to 3.42 earlier today.

                      EUR/USD is steady in range. But EUR/JPY dips further towards 128.32 also on broad based risk aversion.

                      Sterling rebounds as EU may offer a UK-wide customs union

                        Sterling rebounds strongly on an RTE news report that EU is going to offer the a UK-wide customs union as a way to work around the Irish backstop deadlock. And, the way to handle it is that in the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement, there will be a specific commitment to a UK wide customs arrangement. However, a formal EU-UK customs union will require a separate agreement. By offering that, EU will still insist on a backstop to be in place.

                        The details of the idea are remain to be seen. And it’s uncertain whether UK Prime Minister Theresa May will accept it. Nor is it clear whether there is any technical issues overlooked. But for now Sterling is enjoying a notable rebound as seen in GBP/USD.

                        Into US session: Yen strongest, Aussie weakest. Risk aversion lifts gold

                          Entering into US session, Yen remains the strongest one as global stock market rout deepens. Meanwhile, Australian Dollar is the weakest one, followed by Canadian and then Euro. Gold also rides on risk aversion and hit as high as 1236.7 so far. Economic calendar is light in the US session. So major focus will remain on risk sentiments, currently, DOW futures are dropping more than 300 pts. Euro will also be moved by news on European Commission’s reaction to Italy’s reply on budget.

                          In Europe, at the time of writing:

                          • FTSE is down -0.52% at 7006.14
                          • DAX is down -1.55% at 11345.8
                          • CAC is down -1.02% at 50001.79
                          • German 10 year yield is down -0.0204 at 0.431
                          • Italian 10 year yield is down -0.005 at 3.474. Spread with German remains around 300.

                          Earlier today in Asia:

                          • Nikkei dropped -2.6% to 22010.78
                          • Hong Kong HSI dropped -3.08% to 25346.55
                          • China Shanghai SSE dropped -2.26% to 2594.83
                          • Singapore Strait Times dropped -1.52% to 3031.39

                          Nikkei’s fall from 24448.07 high resumed today and the break of 22172.90 support confirmed completion of rise from 20347.49. Near term outlook is rather bearish with prior rejection by 55 day EMA. Further fall is now likely to be seen towards 20347.59 key support level. At this point, we don’t expect a break there yet.

                          Gold extends rebound through last week’s high, to take on 1235.24/1236.99 cluster resistance

                            Gold jumps sharply today as Dollar loses ground to Yen on risk aversion. The break of last week’s high at 1233.30 indicates resumption of whole rebound from 1160.36.

                            Focus is now back on 1235.24/1236.99 cluster resistance zone (38.2% retracement of 1365.24 to 1160.36 at 1238.62, 100% projection of 1160.36 to 1214.30 from 1183.05 at 1236.99). For now we’d expect this resistance to hold to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 1219.90 minor support will suggest that the rebound is completed and turn near term outlook bearish.

                            However, decisive break of 1235.24/1236.99 will argue that the trend could have reversed and further rally might be seen back to 61.8% retracement at 1286.97 and above.

                            Italy may adjust budget plan if markets react negatively

                              Italian newspaper Il Messaggero reported today that the coalition government is prepared to adjust its budget plan should markets react negatively. For now, the government is sticking to its deficit target of 2.4% of GDP in 2019. And there could be a plan B for the government including redefining the key elements of the expansive budget. Those adjustments could even include retirements and basic income for the poor.

                              European Commissions will discuss today what’s next regarding Italy, after formally getting its reply. It’s generally expected that the Commission will reject the budget and demand resubmission from Italy.

                              EUR/USD’s weak recovery ahead of 1.1432 supprot today could be an reaction to the news. But it’s so far very weak.

                              Italian 10 year yield is down -0.033 at 3.447 for the moment. It’s already way off last week’s high near to 3.8%. But German 10 year yield is currently at 0.445. Spread remains close to 300.

                              Japan Cabinet Office: Economy recovering at a moderate pace but exports almost flat

                                In Japanese Cabinet Office’s monthly report, general economic assessment was held unchanged. That is, the economy is “recovering at a moderate pace”. It also maintained that “private consumption is picking up”, “business investment is increasing”, “industrial production is increasing moderately”, “corporate profits are improving”, “employment situation is improving steadily”, and “consumer prices are rising at a slower tempo recently”.

                                However, exports are somewhat downgraded from “pausing recently” to “almost flat”. The report maintained the urged that “attention should be given to the effects of situations over trade issues on the world economy, the uncertainty in overseas economies and the effects of fluctuations in the financial and capital markets. ”

                                On prices, the report noted “the Government expects the Bank of Japan to achieve the price stability target of two percent in light of economic activity and prices. ”

                                Full report here.

                                Yen surges broadly today but that’s mainly due to risk aversion as Nikkei closed down -604.04 pts or -2.67%.

                                An update on AUD/USD short, lower the stop slightly

                                  Here an update on our AUD/USD short (entered at 0.7100) as last discussed in the weekly report. Finally, we’re seeing the weakness anticipated in the pair as it drops to as low as 0.7058 so far today. The solid break of 0.7088 minor support argues that corrective rise from 0.7040 is likely competed at 0.7159 already. And the larger fall is possibly resuming. Further decline should be seen to 0.7040 first.

                                  Break of 0.7040 will resume whole down trend form 0.8135 and should target a test on 0.6826 (2016 low). It’s still early to tell. But we’re looking at the possibly of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). We’ll looking downside momentum of the next fall, upon breaking 0.7040, to gauge the chance.

                                  For now, we’ll hold on to the short position. Stop will be lowered from 0.7185 (slightly above 50% retracement of 0.7314 to 0.7040 at 0.7178) to 0.7165 (slightly above 0.7159 resistance). We’ll decide whether to exit at around 0.6826 later.

                                  Markets shrug Trump’s unsubstantiated tax cut for middle class

                                    Trump talked about the plan to give middle class 10% tax cut yesterday. He said “we’re putting in a resolution some time in the next week and a half to two weeks [and] we’re giving a middle-income tax reduction of about 10 percent.” He insisted that the plan will go through Congress rather than executive order. And the vote will be done after mid-term election.

                                    But the initiative is widely criticized as unsubstantiated as Republican congressional leaders and White House officials were reported to have heard nothing about the plan. Additionally, Congress is in recess ahead of mid-term election and there is no plan to return to Washington for the matter.

                                    White House spokeswoman Lindsay Walters clarified yesterday that “as part of Tax Reform 2.0, the first elements of which were passed the House in September, the President would like to see an additional tax cut of 10% for middle-income families.” That effectively confirmed that the idea of 10% tax cut is something entirely new.

                                    The three bills of the so called Tax Reform 2.0 was passed in the House in late September. And it’s already facing a tough batter in the Senate. It is seen as nearly impossible to add additional deficit ballooning 10% tax cut to the plan and get through either House or Senate. The claimed 10% tax cut for the middle class is seen as campaign gimmick rather than anything with substance.

                                    The US markets shrugged off the news with DOW closing down -0.50% at 25317.41. Consolidation from 24899.77 is in progress but fall from 26951.81 medium term should resume sooner or later.

                                    UK May: Brexit transition extension or backstop is a sovereign choice

                                      Speaking to the Parliament yesterday, UK Prime Minister Theresa May outlined four more steps to complete the remaining 5% of Brexit agreement with the EU. Those include a firm commitment to EU-UK temporary customs arrangement; an option to extend the implementation period as alternative to Irish backstop; the flexibility for the UK to leave as will; and, ensuring full access for all of Northern Ireland business to the Great Britain.

                                      May added that both the option of transition extension and backstops only insurance policy and are undesirable. And the best outcome is for the future arrangement to be in place by December 2020. And she added that it would be a “sovereign choice” on whether an extension or a UK-EU customs backstop would be preferable.

                                      May also said that “95 per cent of the Withdrawal Agreement and its protocols are now settled.” But Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn criticized that “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.”

                                      Sterling is notably lower against Euro and Swiss Franc since the start of the week.

                                      European Commission to discuss actions on Italy’s budget today

                                        European Commission is set to discuss the actions regarding Italy’s draft budget today. Italy sent a three-page letter to the Commission yesterday, explaining its position on the budget, but without directly addressing the questions as presented by the Commission’s letter to them. Instead, Economy Minister Giovanni Tria tried to pain the budget plan, raising deficit target to 2.4% of GDP, as a “hard but necessary” decision after considering “macroeconomic and social conditions”. Prime Minister Giuseppe  Conte, also expressed the willingness for a “constructive dialogue” but reject any prejudice.

                                        European Commissioner for Economic Affairs Pierre Moscovici emphasized the “the European commission does not want a crisis between Brussels and Rome.” But he added that “the maximum that we can do … is to ask Italy to resubmit another budget, which takes account of the observations, of the questions, and also of European rules.”

                                        While attentions are mainly on the top line 2.4% of GDP deficit target, there are other issues that are yet to be addressed by Italy. In particular, the Italian government forecasts the economy to growth 1.5% in 2019, based on the budget. However, as the Commission pointed out in its letter, the plan has not been endorsed by any “independent fiscal monitoring institution”, like the Parliamentary Budget Office. And that’s a breach of EU rules. The growth projection is the basis for deficit target calculation and Italy has to either ask the PBO to reveal and endorse it, or explain why they just come up with the numbers on their own.

                                        Mid-US udpate: European stocks reversed, Dollar and CAD strong

                                          It isn’t too clear what’s the driving force in the forex markets today, except Brexit concerns on Sterling’s weakness. Italy’s budget remains a concern as the coalition government replied to EU insisting to stick with it’s deficit target in 2019. European Commission will discuss the way to handle it in a regular meeting tomorrow. For now, Euro is trading mixed only. New Zealand Dollar and Australian Dollar are the weakest ones next to Sterling, getting no support from strong rebound in Chinese stocks.

                                          On the other hand, US and Canadian Dollar are the strongest ones, followed by the Swiss Franc. It’s also unclear what’s driving the greenback higher. US treasury yields are trading generally lower at the time of writing. Stocks are also weak except NASDAQ. Though, Canadian Dollar could be seen as paring Friday’s steep loss with anticipation of rate hike by BoC later in the week. Swiss Franc’s strength could be explained by the sharp pull back in EUR/CHF as Euro’s rally attempt falters.

                                          In other markets, majors European stock indices reversed after initial rally.

                                          • FTSE closed down -0.04% at 7047.22
                                          • DAX closed down -0.21% at 11529.14
                                          • CAC closed down -0.51% at 5058.77.
                                          • German 10 year yield drops -0.010 to 0.453
                                          • Italian 10 year yield drops -0.1033 at 3.478. This is mainly a reaction to Moody’s downgrade with stable outlook last week. German-Italian yield spread remain at around the alarming 300 level.