Thu, Aug 08, 2024 @ 10:20 GMT
Facebook Mail RSS Twitter
Live Comments Page 585

Live Comments

Random

UK retail sales dropped -0.5% in May, ex-auto fuel dropped -0.3%

    By
    ActionForex.com
    -

    UK retail sales data for May came in mixed. No sector reported growth during the month. But the contraction was not as bad as expected.

    • Retail sales including auto and fuel: -0.5% mom, 2.3% yoy versus expectation of -0.5% mom, 2.7% yoy.
    • Retail sale excluding auto and fuel: -0.3% mom, 2.2% yoy versus expectation of -0.5% mom, 2.4% yoy.

    Full release here.

    EUR/GBP has little reaction today the data. The cross pulled back this week after ECB President Mario Draghi hinted on more monetary stimulus earlier this week. For now, it’s holding on to 0.8871 minor support.

    German PMI manufacturing finalzied at 58.1, 9-month low but alarm bells aren’t ringing yet

      By
      ActionForex.com
      -

      German PMI manufacturing was finalized at 58.1, unchanged from first estimate. Markit noted that After reaching a record-high last December, the PMI has fallen in every month in 2018 so far. Slower rises in new orders and employment weigh on overall performance in April. And growth remains strong by historical standards, with output up markedly on the month

      Comments from Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit:

      “The manufacturing PMI slipped to a nine-month low in April, but alarm bells aren’t ringing yet. The sector boomed in the second half of 2017 and probably overheated; record input delivery delays show that supply has struggled to keep up with demand. The sector looks to have come off the boil in terms of its rate of growth, though it is still running relatively hot.

      “By historical standards, April’s increase in output was robust, and it coincided with another strong round of job creation as manufacturers continued in their efforts to expand capacity. But what’s important in terms of staying in growth territory is the strength of new orders, which in April showed the smallest gain for 17 months. A further slowdown in order books in May would mean some downside risks to the outlook.

      “The survey’s forward-looking business confidence gauge has stabilised after falling throughout the opening quarter, to suggest that firms themselves see growth levelling off at a lower rate than those seen in recent months.”

      Full release here.

      CAD/JPY rejected by channel resistance, heading back to 95.83

        By
        ActionForex.com
        -

        CAD/JPY is one of the top moves today, following Yen’s recovery, as well as weakness in oil prices. Recovery from 95.83 might have completed at 99.28, after rejection by near term falling channel and 99.46 support turned resistance. Deeper decline is now in favor back to retest 95.83 low first. Firm break there will resume whole fall from 110.33.

        Nevertheless, break of 99.28 will now be a sign of stronger rebound ahead. Further rally would likely be seen through 110.24 resistance to 55 day EMA (now at 103.32) instead.

        UK PMI composite rose to new record, an unprecedented growth spurt

          By
          ActionForex.com
          -

          UK PMI Manufacturing jumped to 66.1 in May, up from 60.9, well above expectation of 60.0. That’s another record high since 1992. PMI Services rose to 61.8, up from 61.0, below expectation of 62.0. But that’s still a 91-month high. PMI Composite Rose to 62.0, up from 60.7, record high since 1998.

          Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said: “The UK is enjoying an unprecedented growth spurt as the economy reopens. Factory orders are surging at a record pace as global demand for goods continues to revive, and the service sector is reporting near-record growth as the opening up of the economy allows more businesses to trade. Business confidence has meanwhile hit an all-time high as concerns about the impact of the pandemic continue to fade…

          “A direct consequence of demand running ahead of supply was a steep rise in prices, hinting strongly that consumer price inflation has much further to rise after lifting to 1.5% in April. However, the inflationary spike could prove temporary, as many of the price hikes have reflected surcharges on shipping and other shortage-related issues emanating from the pandemic. As these constraints ease, price pressures should abate, but there remains a great deal of uncertainty as to how long it will take for global business and trade to return to normal functioning, especially if new virus variants appear.”

          Full release here.

          BoE Bailey: Negative rates more effective in an established upswing

            By
            ActionForex.com
            -

            BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said the central bank is “ready to act, should that be needed”. However, he added that while negative rates are “part of out tool box”, at the moment, “we do not have a plan to use them.

            A “conclusion we tend to be drawing from other experiences is that the negative rates and their effectiveness depends on what point in the cycle you use them,” he explained. “If you see what the ECB have done in their analysis that probably they are more effective in an established upswing than they are in a difficult downswing.”

            On the economic outlook, he emphasized “forecasts can sometimes look beguilingly straightforward”. But “there’s an awful lot of risk in there ad it’s obviously distributed one way.”

            Chinese Liu said to cut short trade talks in US, White House denied

              By
              ActionForex.com
              -

              The South China Morning Post in Hong Kong reported that no progress was made in deputy-level trade talks this week. And Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is set to cut short his trip to Washington. Originally planned to hold two days of meeting on Thursday and Friday, Liu might just leave on Thursday. Though, the rumor was quickly denied by the White House and the spokesman said “We are not aware of a change in the Vice Premier’s travel plans at this time”.

              Separately, US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said that “tariffs are finally forcing China to pay attention to our concerns”. Yet, he noted that “trade agreements historically have been very weak on enforcement”. And, “given the magnitude and the complexity of the changes we need, enforcement becomes an extremely critical component of any agreement that we make.”

              NZD/USD bounces after RBNZ hike, drawing support from HnS neckline

                By
                ActionForex.com
                -

                NZD/USD recovers notably after RBNZ rate hike, but stays in range below 0.6467 temporary top. Outlook is staying bullish for now, as NZD/USD is trying to draw support from head and shoulder neckline (ls: 0.6195, h: 0.6059, rs: 0.6211), as well as 55 day EMA (now at 0.6323). Another rise is in favor through 0.6467, sooner rather than later.

                Either as a corrective rebound, or part of an up trend, rise from 0.6059 should target 0.6575 resistance zone, which is close to 38.2% retracement of 0.7463 (2021 high) to 0.6059 at 0.6595.

                However, another decline, and sustained trading below 55 day EMA will invalidate this view and bring retest of 0.6059 low instead.

                Australia retail sales rose 1.1% in April, led by food retailing

                  By
                  ActionForex.com
                  -

                  Australia retail sales rose 1.1%, or AUD 350.2m, in April, above expectation of 0.5% mom. Annually, sales rose 25.1% yoy.

                  Ben James, Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Surveys, said: “Food retailing led the rises in April, following falls in both February and March 2021. All industries except department stores rose, with similar rises for cafes, restaurants, and takeaway food services, household goods retailing, and other retailing.

                  New South Wales and Victoria led the state rises, with sales continuing to return in Sydney and Melbourne. A lockdown in Western Australia in April saw a 1.5% fall in that state”

                  Full release here.

                  US initial jobless claims dropped to 210k continuing claims down to 1.348m

                    By
                    ActionForex.com
                    -

                    US initial jobless claims dropped -8k to 210k in the week ending May 21, matched expectations. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 7k to 207k.

                    Continuing claims rose 31k to 1346k in the week ending May 14. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -14k to 1348k, lowest since January 17, 1970 when it was 1340k.

                    Full release here.

                    US PMI composite rose to 46.6, started 2023 on a disappointingly soft note

                      By
                      ActionForex.com
                      -

                      US PMI Manufacturing rose from 46.2 to 46.8 in January. PMI Services rose from 44.7 to 46.6. PMI Composite rose from 45.0 to 46.6.

                      Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

                      “The US economy has started 2023 on a disappointingly soft note, with business activity contracting sharply again in January. Although moderating compared to December, the rate of decline is among the steepest seen since the global financial crisis, reflecting falling activity across both manufacturing and services.

                      “Jobs growth has also cooled, with January seeing a far weaker increase in payroll numbers than evident throughout much of last year, reflecting a hesitancy to expand capacity in the face of uncertain trading conditions in the months ahead. Although the survey saw a moderation in the rate of order book losses and an encouraging upturn in business sentiment, the overall level of confidence remains subdued by historical standards. Companies cite concerns over the ongoing impact of high prices and rising interest rates, as well as lingering worries over supply and labor shortages.

                      “The worry is that, not only has the survey indicated a downturn in economic activity at the start of the year, but the rate of input cost inflation has accelerated into the new year, linked in part to upward wage pressures, which could encourage a further aggressive tightening of Fed policy despite rising recession risks.”

                      Full release here.

                      UK retail sales dropped -0.8% mom, stark slowdown in food sales in September

                        By
                        ActionForex.com
                        -

                        Sterling pays little attention to weaker than expected retail sales data.

                        • Retail sales including auto and fuel came in at -0.8% mom, 3.0% yoy in September versus expectation of -0.4% mom, 3.6% yoy.
                        • Retail sales excluding auto and fuel came in at -0.8% mom, 3.2% yoy in September versus expectation of -0.4% mom, 3.8% yoy.

                        ONS Head of Retail Sales Rhian Murphy said: “Retail continued to grow in the three months to September with jewellery shops and online stores seeing particularly strong sales. This was despite a stark slowdown in food sales in September, following a bumper summer.”

                        Full release here.

                        Former Japan PM Koizumi: Abe’s situation is getting dangerous

                          By
                          ActionForex.com
                          -

                          According to a poll by Nippon TV, support for Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe dropped to 26.7%, hitting the lowest point after taking office back in December 2012. Another survey by Kydo news agency also showed Abe’s supported from -5.4 points to 37%. Another poll by Asahi also showed Abe’s support at only 31%.

                          Recent suspected scandals have clearly hurt Abe’s popularity and raised doubts on whether can win a third term as PM as LDP leader in the September vote.

                          Former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi questioned whether Abe may “resign around the time parliament’s session ends (on June 20)?”, as quoted in weekly magazine Aera. Koizumi also said that “situation is getting dangerous”.

                          BoC keeps overnight rate at 0.25%, bond purchase at CAD 4B per week

                            By
                            ActionForex.com
                            -

                            BoC kept overnight rate unchanged at effective lower bound of 0.25% as widely expected. Bank rate and deposit rate are kept at 0.50% and 0.25% respectively. It doesn’t expect to raise interest rate until into 2023. The QE program will also continues with current pace of CAD 4B per week. Pace of purchases will be adjusted required.

                            The economy is “proving to be more resilient than anticipated” in the second wave of pandemic. Q1 GDP is now “expected to be positive, rather than the contraction forecast in January”. Despite the “stronger near term outlook”, there is still “considerable economic slack and a great deal of uncertainty” both the virus and the economy. Labor market is “a long way from recovery”. CPI would move “temporarily” to top of the 1-3% band in the next few months. But it’s expected to “moderate as base-year effects dissipates”.

                            Full statement here.

                            Abe’s advisor Kawai: Alliance with US changed to a transactional one under Trump

                              By
                              ActionForex.com
                              -

                              Katsuyuki Kawai, a ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lawmaker who advises Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on foreign affairs, raised his “personal” concern over the change in US foreign policy under Trump. He said in a Reuters interview that the alliance between Japan and the US has “changed from one based on shared values to a transactional alliance.” And, “this is the reality now”. He also pointed to the Kim-Trump submit and said it “will serve as a trigger for the Japanese people to begin to realize that it is risky to leave Japan’s destiny to another country.”

                              An unnamed Japanese government source also said “trade is more worrisome,” and “it’s getting worse … There is no reliable (U.S.) cabinet level person who can say ‘No’ to unreasonable proposals.”

                              The Nikkei business newspaper also criticized in a weekend analysis that “Mr. Trump mixes up economics and security with the mind-set of a real estate deal is a big cause for concern”.

                              USTR seeks auto tariffs equalization from China

                                By
                                ActionForex.com
                                -

                                Just days ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting, the US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer issued another statement regarding China’s auto tariffs today. Is it setting the stage for Trump to claim victory on some Chinese concessions? Or, Trump said yesterday that GM’s plant closures prompted him to study auto tariffs. At the same time, is he thinking about selling more cars to China to “equalize” the imports from EU and Japan?

                                The statement noted, “As the President has repeatedly noted, China’s aggressive, State-directed industrial policies are causing severe harm to U.S. workers and manufacturers. We are continuing to raise these issues with China. As of yet, China has not come to the table with proposals for meaningful reform.”

                                “China’s policies are especially egregious with respect to automobile tariffs. Currently, China imposes a tariff of 40 percent on U.S. automobiles. This is more than double the rate of 15 percent that China imposes on its other trading partners, and approximately one and a half times higher than the 27.5 percent tariff that the United States currently applies to Chinese-produced automobiles. At the President’s direction, I will examine all available tools to equalize the tariffs applied to automobiles.”

                                USTR statement here.

                                Fed Kaplan might need to adjust view on tapering due to Delta

                                  By
                                  ActionForex.com
                                  -

                                  Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said the the economic impact from the Delta variant is “unfolding rapidly”. “So far it’s not having a material effect” on consumer activity, he added. But, “it is having an effect in delaying return to office, it’s affecting the ability to hire workers because of fear of infection,” and may be affecting production output.

                                  Kaplan previously said he would like to start tapering asset purchases in October. But he might now need to adjust he views “somewhat” due to Delta.

                                  Australia NAB business confidence rose to 7, conditions rose to 20

                                    By
                                    ActionForex.com
                                    -

                                    Australia NAB Business Confidence rose from 2 to 7 in July. Business Conditions rose from 14 to 20. Trading conditions rose from 19 to 27. Profitability conditions rose from 13 to 17. Employment conditions rose from 11 to 17.

                                    “Businesses are continuing to report that conditions are really strong,” said NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster. “While some of the real time data we look at is showing signs of softening, there are no signs of that in the survey with demand at a really high level. Importantly, the strength is showing up across the board in terms of industries and across the country.”

                                    “Confidence bounced back in July, which was something of a surprise,” said Oster. “Inflation and rising interest rates are clouding the outlook, and there are growing concerns about the global economy, but businesses seem to have a fairly positive outlook at the moment. Forward orders are also fairly strong at +10 index points which also supports the outlook.”

                                    Full release here.

                                    Canada wholesale sales dropped -0.6% mom in Jul, led by personal and household goods

                                      By
                                      ActionForex.com
                                      -

                                      Canada wholesale sales dropped -0.6% mom in July to CAD 80.2B, worse than expectation of -0.4% mom. That followed two consecutive months of record-high sales in May and June.

                                      Declines in the personal and household goods subsector led the losses for July, followed by the building material and supplies, and the motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and accessories subsectors. Sales fell in five of seven subsectors, which represented 63% of wholesale sales.

                                      Full release here.

                                      UK PMI construction recovered to 49.2, but further weakness ahead

                                        By
                                        ActionForex.com
                                        -

                                        UK PMI Construction recovered from 48.9 to 49.2 in August, above expectation of 48.0. S&P Global noted that activity was down for the second month running. New orders and employment had softer rises. But supply-chain disruption and inflationary pressures eased.

                                        Andrew Harker, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “The UK construction sector looks set to be in for a challenging period, according to the latest PMI data. Not only did construction activity fall for the second month running, but a range of indicators from the survey pointed to further weakness ahead.”

                                        Full release here.

                                        BoE to decide whether to expand QE again today

                                          By
                                          ActionForex.com
                                          -

                                          BoE’s scheduled monetary policy session is a main focus today. The central has already delivered emergency action last week, by cutting interest rate to 0.1% and expanded its asset purchase program by GBP 200B to GBP 645B. No further rate cut is expected for the time being.

                                          Instead, new Governor Andrew Bailey, who has been in the job for less than two weeks, is expected to reaffirm the central bank’s commitment in fighting the impact of coronavirus pandemic. There might be a further increase in the quantitative easing program, after Fed went QE infinity earlier. Or the board could save this bullet for later use in May. There is no consensus in markets on which way BoE would take.

                                          GBP/CHF recovered after hitting as low as 1.1102 last week and recovered. Price actions from 1.1102 are clearly corrective, in-line with near term bearish outlook. We’d expect recent down trend to resume sooner or later to 61.8% projection of 1.5570 to 1.1701 from 1.3310 at 1.0919 first. And, we’re actually expecting further to 100% projection 0.9441, at least, before finding a major bottom.

                                          1...584585586...683Page 585 of 683

                                          ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for over a decade. Empowering the individual traders was, is, and will always be our motto going forward.

                                          Contact us: contact@actionforex.com

                                          © ActionForex.com © 2024 All rights reserved.