Eurogroup Centeno hails Franco-German proposal of Eurozone budget a breakthrough

    Eurogroup President Mario Centeno hailed that the Franco-German proposal of a Eurozone budget is “breakthrough” on reforms to be discussed among finance ministers in December. Centeno said “the contribution of France and Germany on the euro zone budget is an important topic for today’s discussion,” and, “it can be a sort of a breakthrough toward December”.

    Under the joint proposal, the objective of the Eurozone budget is to foster convergence and support reforms “in particular by co-financing growth-enhancing public expenditures such as investments, research and development, innovation and human capital”. The pool of funds from dedicated taxes and indiviual state contributions would be put under a system of shared management. Members would then be allowed to used the fund for short-term investment plans with approvals from the European Commission. However, the budget would only be available to member states which abide by EUR rules, including deficit and debt.

    Italy appears to be unhappy with the proposal as Deputy Prime Minister Matt eo Slovenia warned that “If, as it seems, it (the plan) damages Italy, it will never have our support.”

    Bundesbank: German economy to see fairly strong growth again in Q4

      Bundesbank said in its monthly report that the -0.2% contraction in Q3 GDP in Germany was due to “a strong temporary one- off effect in the automotive sector.” Meanwhile, “private consumption was temporarily absent as a driving force of the economy”.

      However, after that “setback” the German economy is “expected to see fairly strong growth again in the final quarter of 2018”. Bundesbank said output and exports of motor vehicles are “expected to return to normal before the year is out”. And, “manufacturing sector as a whole likewise looks set for marked growth.” “Private consumption is expected to re- assume its role as a major economic driver”. And, “the still outstanding income and labour market prospects are expected to again provide a boost.”

      Full report here.

      UK PM May: The Brexit deal takes back control over borders, money and laws

        UK Prime Minister Theresa May said in the CBI annual conference that her Brexit agreement is ” a good one for the UK” as it “fulfils the wishes of the British people as expressed in the 2016 referendum”. And she emphasized the outcomes” she wanted to deliver.

        Those include “Control over our borders, by bringing an end to free movement, once and for all”; “Control of our money, so we can decide for ourselves how to spend it, and can do so on priorities like our NHS”; “Control of our laws, by ending the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice in the United Kingdom and ensuring that our laws are made and enforced here in this country.”

        CBI Fairbairn: Westminster living in own narrow world, extreme positions allowed to dominate

          UK CBI President John Allan said in the group’s annual conference that even though Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal is “not perfect”, it “opens a route to a long-term trade arrangement, it unlocks the transition period – the very least that companies need to prepare for Brexit”. And more importantly, he emphasized that ” it avoids the nightmare scenarios a no-deal departure, which would be a wrecking ball for our economy.”

          The group’s Direct General Carolyn Fairbairn complained that “Westminster seems to be living in its own narrow world, in which extreme positions are being allowed to dominate.” And, “the result is a high-stakes game of risk, where the outcome could be an accidental no-deal.” She also acknowledged that May’s deal is “not perfect” but a “compromise”, a “hard-won progress”. She urged that “this is not a time to go backward”.

          ECB Villeroy de Galhau: No rush to set out length of reinvestment period after asset purchases end

            ECB Governor Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said today that net asset purchase will “very probably end in December” as planned. However, he emphasized that “the end of our net asset purchases will not, however, mean the end of our monetary stimulus, far from it.”

            The pace of normalization would depend on incoming economic data. And three tools are at ECB’s disposal, including reinvestment of assets, interest rate and refinancing operations. Villeroy would prefer slowing the rate of reinvestment only after the first interest rate hike, which wouldn’t happen at least through the summer of 2019.

            He also added that “we are not obliged to rush, as early as at our December meeting, to set out the precise length of our reinvestment period.”

            BoJ Kuroda: Mindful of banks’ engagement in excessive risk taking

              BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda noted in a speech that amid a persistent low interest rate environment, “possible changes in the risk appetite and risk profile of banks … is an issue” that BOJ is “highly attentive to”. And, in the short term, “as downward pressure on banks’ profits continues, we need to be mindful of the possible consequences of banks’ engagement in excessive risk taking.”

              For banks with “abundant capital bases”, risk taking “provides financial support to firms’ production activities, thereby contributing to economic expansion”. However, without appropriate risk management measures, continued decline in profits would lead to to “insufficient capital bases”, and sharply higher credit costs. The stability of the financial system “could be threatened” in the event of a “large exogenous shock”. Based on October’s Financial System Report, the system has been maintaining stability on the whole.

              On monetary, Kuroda repeated the same rhetoric that BoJ will continue with the current loose monetary policy. And, he’s confident that BoJ inflation will eventually move back to target.

              SNB Maechler: Negative interest rate remains indispensable for Switzerland

                Swiss National Bank Governing Board member Andrea Maechler said in newspaper Le Matin Dimanche interview that current monetary policy remains appropriate. She noted the fragility in the financial markets, with risks surrounding Brexit, Italy and trade war. Also, the exchange rate of the Swiss Franc remained high.

                Therefore, Maechler said, “In the current context, the negative interest rate remains indispensable for Switzerland. It enables us to restore, at least partially, a difference between Swiss interest rates and those abroad, thus reducing the franc’s attractiveness.”

                Also, “our monetary policy based on the negative interest rate and our capacity to intervene on the currency market if needed is appropriate.”

                UK May: Change of leadership risk delaying Brexit negotiations

                  UK Prime Minister Theresa May warned yesterday that “a change of leadership at this point isn’t going to make the negotiations any easier “. Instead she added “what it will do is mean that there is a risk that actually we delay the negotiations and that is a risk that Brexit gets delayed or frustrated.” May also emphasized that “these next seven days are going to be critical, they are about the future of this country”. And she pledged not to be “distracted from the important job.”

                  May is also expected to reiterate the same message in a speech to the CBI’s annual conference today. According to advance extracts, May would say “We now have an intense week of negotiations ahead of us in the run-up to the special European Council on Sunday (Nov 25).” And, “during that time I expect us to hammer out the full and final details of the framework that will underpin our future relationship and I am confident that we can strike a deal at the council that I can take back to the House of Commons.”

                  UK Brady predicts PM May to win leadership challenge, but 48 threshold not even met yet

                    As confirmed by Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 Committee, the number of requests for no-confidence vote on Prime Minister Theresa May haven’t met the threshold of 48 yet. He added, “if a threshold were to be reached I would have to consult with the leader of the party the Prime Minister.” And he expected the “whole thing” to be an “expeditious process”, if it happens.

                    Also, Brady predicted even if there is a leadership challenge, May is going to win it. He said “it would be a simple majority, it would be very likely that the Prime Minister would win such a vote and if she did then there would be a 12-month period where this could not happen again, which would be a huge relief for me because people would have to stop asking me questions about numbers of letters for at least 12 months.”

                    However, Brady is also dissatisfied with the May’s Brexit deal and branded it as “tricky”. He predicted that “it certainly doesn’t look like the current agreement will get through [the Commons] unless either the agreement changes or the statement of the political declaration, the future relationship, gives considerably stronger grounds for optimism a bout the nature of the final deal.”

                    UK PM May could face no-confidence vote as soon as next Tuesday

                      UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s spokesman said today that there is “strong support from the business community in recent days” for her highly criticized Brexit draft agreement. Meanwhile, May is expected to appoint another Brexit minister, rather than getting rid of the department. But at the same time, it’s also reported that May will face a no-confidence vote as soon as next Tuesday as Conservatives gather 48 written requests.

                      So far, 19 Conservative MPS have made public their requests. ERG leader Jacob Rees-Mogg led the way. Others include Henry Smith, Sheryll Murray, Anne Marie-Morris, Lee Rowley, Steve Baker, Simon Clarke, James Duddridge, Andrea Henkyns, Andrew Bridgen, Philip Davies, Peter Bone, Nadine Dorries, Martin Vickers, Adam Holloway, John Whittingdale, Laruence Robertson, Mark Francois and Maria Caulfield. And of course, there are those tho haven’t made the request public.

                      EU Malmstrom urged China to work on WTO reform, after winning a lot from it

                        EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom urged China to cooperate on WTO reform in a press conference in Paris today. She said “China has won a lot from the WTO system”. And the EU calls on China to “show leadership and to engage with us to reform and to update the system, to create a level playing field.” She warned that “otherwise the U.S. will create a level playing field outside the system”.

                        Malmstrom also noted that the WTO’s disputes system was on a slippery slope and “one false step here could quickly lead to collapse of the whole rules-based system.” She added “Without it, it would be anarchy, there would be no order, and we would all be losers. And the poorest countries would be the biggest losers. And we would lose a system that has been used to ensure stability for generations.”

                        ECB Draghi: Medium term uncertainties increased, better placed for full assessment with December projections

                          ECB President Mario Draghi said recent slowdown has raised questions on the strength of Eurozone growth outlook, and whether the the ongoing convergence of inflation towards target will be sustained. Back in October, Draghi said policymakers have “confirmed our confidence” in the outlook. And, inflation convergence could be maintained even after “gradual” winding-down of net asset purchase.

                          However, the Governing Council also noted “uncertainties surrounding the medium-term outlook have increased.” The council will be “better placed to make a full assessment of the risks to growth and inflation” with the upcoming projections in December meeting.

                          Draghi’s full speech here.

                          EU Dombrovskis: Italy openly challenges EU rule, opening a procedure justified

                            European Commission Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis said in an interview with Il Sole 24 Ore that Italy’s 2019 draft budget plan “significantly” deviates from the country’s commitment to the EU. The resubmitted plan kept the highly criticized budget deficit target at 2.4% of GDP and growth forecasts unchanged at 1.5%. Dombrovskis said that is “openly” challenging the budget rules agreed by all Eurozone countries. Also, he said the plan is “counterproductive” as it triggers investor concerns and would push bond yields higher.

                            Dombrovskis also warned that if Italy no longer comply with the Stability Pact, opening a procedure of penalty “would be justified”.

                            Former Brexit Minister Davis predicts rejeciton by Commons and PM May will have to renegotiate with EU

                              Former Brexit Minister David Davis, the one before resigned Dominic Raab, criticizes that PM Theresa May’s Brexit agreement is a “dreadful deal” that is “”very, very favourable” to the EU. And, “It really does not fly by any measure, it doesn’t meet the requirements of the people, it’s not what they voted for, it doesn’t meet the requirements of the Conservative manifesto.”

                              And he predicts that the agreement will be rejected by the House of Commons. Then, the government will have to come up with an alternative. And, May “will have to go back to renegotiate”.

                              BusinessNZ PMI improved, not large but important to broader economic narrative

                                New Zealand BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index rose 1.6 to 53.3 in October, indicating faster expansion rate. That’s also the highest level since May. BusinessNZ noted “the October result was a welcome change from where the survey has sat for the previous four months.” And, while “the improvement in the PMI is not large, but we see it as important to the broader economic narrative”.

                                Looking at the details, the key sub-indicators of production (52.8) and new orders (56.7) both improved with their highest results since May and April respectively.  Also, after dipping into contraction during various times in 2018, employment (52.4) improved for a second consecutive month.  The proportion of positive comments (58.3%) also increased, with demand for products from offshore customers noted throughout.

                                Full release here.

                                Fed Kashkari sees no need for more rate hikes, Bostic wants to keep going to neutral

                                  Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari reiterated yesterday that he didn’t see the need to continue raising interest rates. And, he saw no signs of overheating while low wage growth suggests the labor market are more slack. He also pointed to slowdown in other major economies, in the context that Japan and Germany GDP contracted in Q3. He questioned “right now, the U.S. economy seems to be the strongest engine of the major economies around the world — is that going to last, especially if the Fed keeps raising rates? It’s hard to know.”

                                  On the other hand, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic maintained his support to keep raising interest rates to neutral, even though they “not too far”. He said “I don’t think we are too far from a neutral policy, and neutral is where we want to be”. And, “We may not be there quite yet, but I am inclined to think that a tentative approach as we proceed would be appropriate.”

                                  US still planning to raise tariffs on Chinese goods on Jan despite planned Trump-Xi meeting

                                    US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said in an interview that all the exchanges with China right now are just “preparatory”. And the “big-event” is the meeting between Trump and Xi at the G-20 in Argentina on Nov 30/Dec 1. He added both leaders will certainly not get into “intimate details”. And, it’s going to be “big picture”. If things go well, the meeting will “set the framework for going forward”.

                                    However, Ross also noted that the US is still planning, on Jan 1, to raise tariffs on USD 200B in Chinese imports from 10% to 25%. And “We certainly won’t have a full formal deal by January. Impossible.”

                                    Separately, it’s reported that the document China sent to the US this week included 142 items regarding US requests on trade. The items are divided into three categories: issues for further negotiation, issues China is already working on, and issues that are non-negotiable. It’s believed that some items on the non-negotiable lists were unacceptable to Trump, while the US is skeptical on others due to China’s history of failing promises.

                                    UK PM May insisted her Brexit plan’s the right one, ready to see through leadership challenge

                                      Sterling recovers mildly today but remains the weakest one for the week on political turmoil in the UK. Four ministers, including Brexit Minister Dominic Raab resigned in protest to Prime Minister Theresa May’s draft Brexit agreement. But May insisted in a press briefing that “I believe with every fibre of my being that the course I have set out is the right one for our country and all our people.” She added that “I am going to do my job of getting the best deal for Britain and I’m going to do my job of getting a deal that is in the national interest.”

                                      ERG leader Jacob Rees-Mogg has formally requested a no-confidence vote on May. And for now, at least 14 Conservative MPs had openly said they had joined in the call. Four-eight letters are needed to trigger a leadership challenge. May’s response regarding the challenge was “Am I going to see this through? Yes.”

                                      Even if May can survive the leadership contest, it remains very doubtful if she can get enough votes through the parliament. Conservative Brexit-supporting MP Mark Francois, put it this way. “It is … mathematically impossible to get this deal through the House of Commons. The stark reality is that it was dead on arrival.”

                                      Position trading: CAD/JPY short entered

                                        ** Quick update: The position is stopped out with 66 pips loss within hours after this post. Following up on our position trading strategy mentioned in the weekly report, we’ve entered CAD/JPY short on break of 85.64 support. The development is actually quite disappointing as, despite WTI oil’s free fall to below 55, CAD remains relatively resilient. Though, Yen is starting to pick up some strength for rebound, with USD/JPY in risk of near term reversal.

                                        Near term outlook in CAD/JPY remains unchanged that corrective rise from 84.84 should have completed at 86.98 already. So, we’d hold on to CAD/JPY and lower the stop from 87.00 to 86.30 (slightly above 86.29 minor resistance). A break of 86.29 will suggests that the corrective rise from 84.84 is going to extend with another rise and 86.98 will likely be breached. So, if we’re wrong in our view, there is no point in holding on to the stop at 87.00.

                                        The overall larger outlook is unchanged that rise from 80.52 (March low) is a corrective three wave move that has completed at 89.22. Fall from 89.22 is, in a more bearish case, resuming the down trend from 91.62 (2017 high) through 80.52/55 support. Or in a less bearish case, fall fro 89.22 is a falling leg in the medium term range pattern. In either case, deeper decline is in favor to have a test on 80.52 low.

                                        Today’s top mover: More medium term bearishness in GBP/AUD with today’s free fall

                                          At the time of writing, GBP/AUD is the top mover today, rightly so. Pound is pressured by political turmoil in the UK. Everybody knows it. Aussie is boosted by strong employment data, and optimism over US-China trade negotiation.

                                          Following up on our last note on GBP/AUD here. The rebound off 61.8% retracement of 1.7282 to 1.8726 at 1.7863 was out of our expectations. But GBP/AUD failed to take out 1.8156 resistance anyway and maintained bearishness. And finally, this 1.7863 fibonacci support is taken out firmly today.

                                          The development now adds to the case of medium term bearish reversal. That is, whole “corrective” up trend from 1.5626 (2016 low) has completed at 1.8726 on after missing 50% retracement of 2.2382 to 1.5626 at 1.9004. This is also supported by bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD.

                                          Deeper decline should be seen back to 1.7282 key support level first. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.5626 in medium term. And there is prospect of even resuming the down trend from 2.2382 (2015 high) through 1.5626 low in the long term. For now, this will be the preferred case as long as 1.7824 support turned resistance holds.