US-China trade war ceasefire for 90 days, China to work on reforms immediately

    US President Donald Trump hailed that he had an “amazing and productive meeting” with Chinese President Xi Jinping, as sideline of G20 summit in Argentina. Both sides agreed to ceasefire on trade war for 90 days and work on structural changes in China. China also agreed to start buying US agriculture products immediately. Trump said there are “unlimited possibilities for both the United States and China.”

    In a White House statement:

    • Trump agreed NOT to raise the tariffs on USD 200B of Chinese progress to 25% on January 1, but leave them at 10%.
    • China will purchase a “very substantial” amount of agricultural, energy, industrial, and other product from the US, starting immediately with agriculture.
    • Most importantly, negotiations will immediately begin on structural reforms regarding “forced technology transfer, intellectual property protection, non-tariff barriers, cyber intrusions and cyber theft, services and agriculture. “
    • The negotiations will be completed within the next 90 days. If an agreement couldn’t be made, the above mentioned tariffs will be raised from 10% to 25%.

    Here is the full statement.

    Statement from the Press Secretary Regarding the President’s Working Dinner with China

    The President of the United States, Donald J. Trump, and President Xi Jinping of China, have just concluded what both have said was a “highly successful meeting” between themselves and their most senior representatives in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

    Very importantly, President Xi, in a wonderful humanitarian gesture, has agreed to designate Fentanyl as a Controlled Substance, meaning that people selling Fentanyl to the United States will be subject to China’s maximum penalty under the law.

    On Trade, President Trump has agreed that on January 1, 2019, he will leave the tariffs on $200 billion worth of product at the 10% rate, and not raise it to 25% at this time. China will agree to purchase a not yet agreed upon, but very substantial, amount of agricultural, energy, industrial, and other product from the United States to reduce the trade imbalance between our two countries. China has agreed to start purchasing agricultural product from our farmers immediately.

    President Trump and President Xi have agreed to immediately begin negotiations on structural changes with respect to forced technology transfer, intellectual property protection, non-tariff barriers, cyber intrusions and cyber theft, services and agriculture. Both parties agree that they will endeavor to have this transaction completed within the next 90 days. If at the end of this period of time, the parties are unable to reach an agreement, the 10% tariffs will be raised to 25%.

    It was also agreed that great progress has been made with respect to North Korea and that President Trump, together with President Xi, will strive, along with Chairman Kim Jong Un, to see a nuclear free Korean Peninsula. President Trump expressed his friendship and respect for Chairman Kim.

    President Xi also stated that he is open to approving the previously unapproved Qualcomm-NXP deal should it again be presented to him.

    President Trump stated: “This was an amazing and productive meeting with unlimited possibilities for both the United States and China. It is my great honor to be working with President Xi.”

    Orignal source.

    Italian Conte and Tria working with EU to avoid excessive deficit procedure

      Italian newspaper Il Messaggero reported that Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte and Economy Minister Giovanni Tria are working on a proposal to lower 2019 budget deficit target from 2.4% of GBP to 2.0%. The proposals could involve delaying the citizen’s income program by several months.

      The Corriere also reported that Tria said “we can still avoid an infringement procedure”, and the coalition government is discussing the budget proposal with European Commission.

      European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker also said in a press conference that the “atmosphere is good” regarding the discussion with Italy. And, he added “we are making progress”.

      Into US session: Traders turn cautious ahead of Trump-Xi meeting, Aussie and Euro weakest

        Entering into US session, New Zealand Dollar is the strongest one for today. It’s followed by Dollar, which pares back some of this week’s losses. Yen follows as the third strongest. On the other hand, Australian Dollar is the weakest one, partly because traders turn cautious ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting. The outcome of the meeting is highly uncertain and we could seen a lot of volatility next week. Euro is the next weakest following weaker than expected inflation data.

        In other markets, major European indices trade broadly lower at the time of writing.

        • FTSE is down -0.79%
        • DAX is down -0.77%
        • CAC is down -0.53%
        • German 10 year yield is down -0.013 at 0.311
        • Italian 10 yea yield is up 0.008 at 3.209
        • German-Italian spread remain below 300
        • WTI oil is staying above 50 but lacks momentum for more rebound
        • Gold hovers in tight range above 1225

        Earlier in Asia

        • Nikkei closed up 0.40% at 22351.06
        • Hong Kong HSI rose 0.21% to 26506.75
        • China Shanghai SSE rose 0.81% to 2588.19
        • Singapore Strait Times rose 0.26% to 3177.61

        Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Mexican President Pana Nieto and US President Donal Trump sign USMCA deal.

          Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Mexican President Pana Nieto and US President Donal Trump sign USMCA deal.

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          Euro mildly lower as inflation slowed, unemployment rate unchanged

            Euro dips mildly against Dollar and Yen after weaker than expected inflation reading. But it’s so far steady against others.

            Eurozone headline CPI dropped to 2.0% yoy in November, down from 2.2% yoy and missed expectation of 2.0% yoy. CPI core slowed to 1.0% yoy, down from 1.1% yoy and missed expectation of 1.1% yoy.

            Also Eurozone unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.1% in October, missed expectation of 8.0%. Highest unemployment rates were seen in Greece at 18.9% in August, and Spain at 14.8%.

            Swiss KOF dropped to 99.1, foreign demand to weaken in coming months

              Swiss KOF economic barometer dropped to 99.1 in November, down from 100.2 and missed expectation 99.8. It’s the second consecutive month of decline and is now below long term average again.

              KOF noted that “this month’s decline was in particular due to less favourable export prospects. The impetus from foreign demand is likely to weaken somewhat in the coming months.” Also, “the development in the banking and insurance sector may lose some of its momentum.” On the other hand, there’s “slight support” from construction sector and private consumption. And, manufacturing is also “resisting downward tendency”.

              Full release here.

              Japan industrial production rose 2.9%, strongest since Jan 2015

                Japan industrial production rose strongly by 2.9% mom in October, way above expectation of 1.2% mom. It’s also more than enough to reverse the -0.4% mom contraction in September. Besides, it’s the fastest month-on-month gain since January 2015. Nevertheless, it’s noted by economists that the strong reading was mainly a reaction to supply-chain disruptions caused by natural disasters. The rebound should be considered a one-off and outlook remains dim ahead on global slowdown.

                Also from Japan, unemployment rate edged up to 2.4% in October, above expectation of 2.3%. Tokyo CPI core was unchanged at 1.0% yoy in November, matched expectations.

                Release in Asian session, China PMI manufacturing dropped -0.2 to 50 in November. PMI non-manufacturing dropped -0.5 to 53.4. Australia Private sector credit rose 0.4% mom in October. New Zealand building permits rose 1.5% mom in October. UK Gfk consumer sentiment dropped -2 to -13 in November.

                UK PM May focused on getting parliament vote on Brexit, not plan B

                  On her way to G20 summit in Argentina, UK Prime Minister Theresa May said she’s focusing on the Brexit vote in the Parliament rather than a plan B. She said, “The focus of myself and the government is on the vote that is taking place on Dec. 11. We will be explaining to members of parliament why we believe that this is a good deal for the UK.”

                  And, she added “I ask every member of parliament to think about delivering on the Brexit vote and doing it in a way that is in the national interest and doing it in a way that is in the interests of their constituents because it protects jobs and livelihoods.” Also, “We haven’t had the vote yet. Let’s focus on the deal that we have negotiated with the European Union.”

                  Dollar mixed after FOMC minutes, no more follow through selling

                    Dollar is mixed after FOMC minutes revealed nothing new, nothing special. The greenback was Sold off after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comment that interest rate is “just below” neutral. However, there was no follow through selling since then.

                    Dollar is still trading up against Yen, Sterling and Canadian for the week. And technically, EUR/USD is in range of 1.1267/1472. USD/CHF is in range of 0.9908/1.0006. GBP/USD is in range of 1.2725/2927. Even the strong AUD/USD couldn’t get ride of 0.7314 resistance cleanly. Traders might want to wait for the result of Trump-Xi meeting before taking further commitment.

                    The FOMC minutes for the November revealed that the members still considered a rate hike in December is appropriate. Yet, they debated on the change in forward guidance regarding the pledge on “further gradual increases” in the policy rate. Some judged that the policy rate is near to the neutral level, while some suggested stressing the importance of incoming data on monetary policy decision. The members in general were upbeat on the economic developments. Yet, they were concerned about the negative impacts of Trump’s imposition of trade tariff on the economy, as well as the “volatility in equity markets was accompanied by a rise in risk spreads on corporate debt”. More in FOMC Minutes Signals Rate Hike “Fairly Soon”, Policy Outlook Masked by Tariff and Debts.

                    More suggested reading on FOMC.

                    Today’s top mover: CHF/JPY, safe haven of different nature

                      The top mover report has been rather hard to write this week. Primary reaction is that the forex markets are generally in consolidation mode, indecisive. Right now CHF/JPY is the top mover but the picture could change in an hour. Nevertheless, it’s a pair that’s worth some discussion.

                      We’ve pointed out in various occasions that while both CHF and JPY are safe haven currencies, there are some fundamental differences in the way they react, at least this year. Yen is more sensitive to yields, spread with US, EU etc. Plus, it’s more sensitive to Asian markets. On the other hand, Swiss Franc is more sensitive to emerging market risks.

                      For example, today’s fall in USD/TRY, thanks to Powell, could be a reason for weakness in the Franc. For Yen, Nikkei closed up 0.69% today. JGB yields dropped to 0.09. But Chinese stocks closed down -1.32%. Yen’s strength is probably more due to position adjustment ahead of the main event of Trump-Xi meeting, as well as month end.

                      Anyway, it does look like CHF/JPY’s corrective rise from 111.55 has completed with three waves up to 114.41. It came after hitting 100% projection of 111.55 to 113.74 from 112.19 at 114.38, as well as the near term channel resistance.

                      Focus is back on 113.04 support for the near term. Firm break there will raise the chance of resuming whole decline from 118.06 through 111.55 low to 61.8% projection of 118.06 to 111.55 from 114.41 at 110.38.

                      Fed Powell bowing down to dictatorship political pressure. Fed slowing or even pausing after December’s hike. There would less drain from the emerging markets. Swiss Franc will benefit more than Yen. It’s a possible scenario. Let’s see how it plays out.

                       

                      Trump tries to sound hardline ahead of meeting with Xi

                        Ahead of the highly anticipated meeting with China’s Xi, Trump tried to sound hardline in his comments on the trade negotiations today.

                        He told reporters that “I think we’re very close to doing something with China but I don’t know that I want to do it.” And, “because what we have right now is billions and billions of dollars coming into the United States in the form of tariffs or taxes, so I really don’t know.” Also, “I will tell you that I think China wants to make a deal, I’m hoping to make it a deal but, frankly, I like the deal we have right now.”

                        The question is, who was Trump talking to? His own base? Republicans? Democrats? Or Xi?

                        Separately, the WSJ reported that the US and China are exploring a trade pact that would halt further tariffs. But it’s uncertain if it’s real or fake.

                        Dollar back under pressure as core PCE inflation slowed, jobless claims rose

                          Dollar is back under some mild pressure in early US session after mixed economic data. Inflation data missed expectations. Headline PCE was unchanged at 2.0% yoy in October versus consensus of 2.1%. Core PCE even slowed to 1.8% yoy, down from 2.0% yoy and missed consensus of 1.9% yoy. Though, personal income rose 0.5% while spending rose 0.6%. Both were above expectations.

                          Initial jobless claims rose 10k to 234k in the week ended November 24, above expectation of 221k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 4.75k to 223.25k. Continuing claims rose 50k to 1.71M in the week ended November 17. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 19.75k to 1.668M.

                          USTR seeks auto tariffs equalization from China

                            Just days ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting, the US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer issued another statement regarding China’s auto tariffs today. Is it setting the stage for Trump to claim victory on some Chinese concessions? Or, Trump said yesterday that GM’s plant closures prompted him to study auto tariffs. At the same time, is he thinking about selling more cars to China to “equalize” the imports from EU and Japan?

                            The statement noted, “As the President has repeatedly noted, China’s aggressive, State-directed industrial policies are causing severe harm to U.S. workers and manufacturers. We are continuing to raise these issues with China. As of yet, China has not come to the table with proposals for meaningful reform.”

                            “China’s policies are especially egregious with respect to automobile tariffs. Currently, China imposes a tariff of 40 percent on U.S. automobiles. This is more than double the rate of 15 percent that China imposes on its other trading partners, and approximately one and a half times higher than the 27.5 percent tariff that the United States currently applies to Chinese-produced automobiles. At the President’s direction, I will examine all available tools to equalize the tariffs applied to automobiles.”

                            USTR statement here.

                            European update: Dollar trying to strike back, except vs Yen and Aussie

                              After the Fed Powell triggered selloff yesterday, Dollar is trying to regain some ground in US session. Nevertheless, it’s underperforming both Yen and Aussie. Main focus will turn to minutes of November meeting later in the day. Of particular interest, everyone would like to see how “close” the current interest rate is to neutral, in policymakers mind. That is, did most FOMC members thought interest rates were now “just below” neutral? Or they believe it’s “long way from” neutral?

                              There are some rumors/reports flying around in European session, which don’t carry much significance. EU Commissioner Günther Oettinger  was quoted by WiWo expecting US auto tariffs to come before Christmas. While Euro trade slightly below Dollar, Yen and Aussie, it’s up against all others. We can’t really say that Euro drops on tariff worries. (European Commission just denied the report)

                              Staying in the currency markets, Sterling is the weakest one for today as UK steps closer to parliamentary vote of the Brexit deal. Swiss Franc is the second weakest after data GDP Q3 GDP unexpectedly contracted. Canadian is the third weakest as WTI crude oil drops below 50.

                              In other markets, major European index trade slightly higher. At the time of writing:

                              • FTSE is up 0.39%
                              • DAX is up 0.19%
                              • CAC is up 0.44%
                              • German 10 year yield is down -0.0191 at 0.333
                              • Italian 10 year yield is down -0.0189 at 3.242. Spread stays below 300.

                              Earlier in Asia

                              • Nikkei rose 0.39% to 22262.60
                              • Singapore Strait Times rose 0.48% to 3109.44
                              • But Hong Kong HSI closed down -0.87% at 26451.03
                              • Shanghai SSE dropped -1.32% to 2567.44. It’s a factor still capping AUD/USD at around 0.7314 resistance.

                              Eurozone business climate improved, economic confidence dropped less than expected

                                Eurozone (EA19) business climate improved to 1.09 in November, up from 1.01 and beat expectation of 0.96.

                                Eurozone economic confidence dropped to 109.5, down from 109.7 but beat expectation of 109.0. Industrial confidence rose to 3.4, up from 3.0 and beat expectation of 2.3. Services confidence was unchanged at 13.3, above expectation of 13.0. Consumer confidence was finalized at -3.9.

                                Also release in European session, German unemployment dropped -16k in November. Unemployment rate dropped 0.1% to 5.0% in October. French GDP rose 0.4% qoq in Q3, unrevised. UK mortgage approvals rose 1k to 67k in October. UK M4 money supply rose 0.7% mom in October.

                                EU Barnier: The Brexit deal on table is the only deal possible

                                  EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier told the EU parliament today that given the “high degree of complexity of all the issues surrounding the UK’s withdrawal, the orderly withdrawal treaty that is on the table is the only deal possible”. And he added that “this is now the moment of ratification”.

                                  Barnier also said “It’s not a question of winners and losers because Brexit is a lose-lose. There is no added value”. And “I am convinced we will be able to work together for a real and unprecedented partnership.”

                                  Separately, UK Prime Minister Theresa May continued her brainwashing rhetorics today. She said told a parliamentary committed, “the timetable is such that actually some people would need to take some practical steps in relation to no deal if the parliament were to vote down the deal on the 11th of December.”

                                  Swiss GDP contracted -0.2% in Q3, growth cycle suddenly interrupted

                                    Swiss GDP unexpectedly contracted -0.2% qoq in Q3, much worse than expectation of 0.5% qoq expansion. The one and a half year strong continuous growth was “suddenly interrupted”. And |Swiss is following the “significant economic downturn” as seen in other European countries, “in particular Germany.

                                    SECO also noted that GDP contract was due to “both the industrial and service sectors”. On the expenditure side, “domestic demand and foreign trade” had a negative impact. Looking at the details, export of goods were particular serious, down -4.2%. Import of goods excluding valuables also dropped -2.4%.

                                    Full release here.

                                    WTI crude oil resume down trend and breaks 50, may find support at 46.54

                                      WTI crude oil resumes recent steep down trend today and breaks 50 handle for the first time since October 2017. Further decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 27.69 (2016 low) to 77.06 (2018 high) at 46.54.

                                      Considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, some support could be seen there to bring short term rebound. But break of 52.72 resistance is needed to confirm short term bottoming first. Otherwise, near term outlook will stay bearish even in case of recovery.

                                      In the bigger picture, current fall from 77.06 is at least corrective the long term rise from 27.69 to 77.06. Or it could be developing into an impulsive down trend. We’ll see the reaction from 46.54 to judge at a later stage.

                                      New Zealand business confidence unchanged, main threat to growth is offshore

                                        New Zealand ANZ business confidence was unchanged at -37.1 in November. Activity outlook rose 0.2 to 7.6. ANZ noted that “Left well enough alone, the New Zealand economy can muddle through. Population growth is cooling, and household debt is very high, but interest rates are stimulatory, the terms of trade are high, and dairy production is off to a boomer.”

                                        “The main threat to growth is in fact offshore, with mounting evidence that global growth is slowing (particularly in export powerhouses such as China and Germany), which is an unhelpful backdrop for already-wobbly equity and credit markets. New Zealand is a small, open economy reliant on foreign capital, and what happens offshore can have a big impact.”

                                        Full release here.

                                        BoJ Masai: Best to sustain current ultra-loose monetary policy

                                          Bank of Japan board member Takako Masai said price growth remained weak in Japan even though growth was solid. And, “as such, the best approach would be to sustain the current ultra-loose monetary policy. With that “the positive momentum is not disrupted,” regarding inflation moving back to 2% target.

                                          She also noted that “Monetary easing can stimulate the economy. On the other hand, prolonged low rates could have adverse effects on bond market functions and financial institutions’ profits”. Thus, “in guiding monetary policy, the BOJ must thoroughly scrutinize the costs and benefits of its policy from various perspectives.”

                                          On BoJ’s move to allow 10-year JGB yield to move from -0.1% to 0.1%, she that “Such flexible measures the BOJ took will help sustain sound market functions.”