UK PM May: Blocking Brexit will be catastrophic and unforgivable breach of trust in our democracy

    Ahead of the Brexit meaningful vote on Tuesday, UK Prime Minister Theresa May said in an articles in Sunday Express that blocking Brexit would be a catastrophic and unforgivable breach of trust in our democracy”. And she urged the Parliament to “forget the games and do what is right for our country.”

    May is also expected to warn in a speech today that “there are some in Westminster who would wish to delay or even stop Brexit and who will use every device available to them to do so”. And, based on the evidence she recent saw, it’s more likely for MPs to block Brexit than leaving EU with no deal. May will ask MPs to “consider the consequences of their actions on the faith of the British people in our democracy”.

    Separately, pro-EU Liberal Democrat leader Vince Cable said on Sunday that the parliament will act to stop no-deal Brexit from happening. Should May’s deal be voted down, Cable said MPs would bring forward legislation to revoke Article 50. He added “that is exactly what we should be doing because it would be absolutely outrageous and unforgivable if the chaotic circumstances of a no deal were allowed to happen.”

    Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn told BBC TV that “my own view is that I would rather get a negotiated deal now, if we can, to stop the danger of a no-deal exit from the EU on the 29th of March which would be catastrophic for industry, catastrophic for trade.”

    US CPI slowed to 1.9%, core unchanged at 2.2%, Dollar steady

      US headline CPI slowed to 1.9% yoy in December, down from 2.2% and matched expectations. Core CPI was unchanged at 2.2% yoy, matched expectations too. Full release here.

      Dollar release the weakest one for today and the week as Fed officials emphasized “patience” before the next rate move. In particular, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell said yesterday, “especially with inflation low and under control, we have the ability to be patient and watch patiently and carefully as we”. Today’s CPI readings don’t express any objection to Powell’s line of logic.

      Pound spikes higher on Brexit delay rumor

        Sterling spiked higher earlier today after the Evening Standard reported that it’s increasingly likely that Brexit will be delayed beyond March 29. Unnamed senior minister was quoted saying “the legislative timetable is now very very tight indeed… certainly, if there was defeat on Tuesday and it took some time before it got resolved, it’s hard to see how we can get all the legislation through by March 29.”

        However, Prime Minister Theresa May’s office was quite to come out to deny the rumor. Her spokesman Alison Donnelly said May has ruled out extending Article 40. And, “it’s government policy that this is not something we are going to do.”

        The pound pared back some gains but remains generally firm against Dollar, Euro and Yen.

        UK GDP growth slowed to 0.3% in three months to November, production dragged

          UK GDP grew 0.2% mom in November, above expectation of 0.1% mom. For the three months to November, GDP growth slowed to 0.3% 3mo3m.

          Commenting on today’s GDP figures Head of National Accounts Rob Kent-Smith said:

          “Growth in the UK economy continued to slow in the three months to November 2018 after performing more strongly through the middle of the year. Accountancy and housebuilding again grew but a number of other areas were sluggish. Manufacturing saw a steep decline, with car production and the often-erratic pharmaceutical industry both performing poorly.”

          Over the three months from September to November, services contributed to 0.24% GDP growth, construction contributed 0.13%. But production was a drag and contributed to -0.12% contraction.

          Also from UK, industrial production dropped -0.4% mom, -1.5% yoy in November, well below expectation of 0.2% mom, -0.5% yoy.

          Manufacturing production dropped -0.3% mom, -1.1% yoy, also well below expectation of 0.4% mom, -1.y% yoy.

          Visible trade deficit widened to GBP -12.0B in November.

          Canada PM Trudeau to pressure Trump to drop steel tariffs

            Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in a televised Q&A that he’s working on pressuring Trump to drop steel and aluminum tariffs. The measures were imposed last May using national security as excuse. And it stays in place despite the signing of the so called US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade agreement in November.

            Trudeau said “We have already been working with members of Congress, with governors, with business interests who are being affected negatively by these tariffs … to put pressure on the President that in the process of ratification, they should remove those steel and aluminum tariffs”.

            Asked why he still signed the USMCA with steel tariffs in place, Trudeau defended and said securing the deal “at a time of unpredictability and protectionism in the United States was a massive priority for all Canadians”.

            Asia update: Dollar stays pressured but stock rally slows

              Asian markets are trading generally higher today, but gains are rather limited. Nikkei is currently up 0.94%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.48%. But Hong Kong HSI and China Shanghai SSE are up merely 0.19% and 0.11% respectively. US-China trade talks will step up a level when Chinese Vice Premier Liu He visit Washington later in the month. Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, continued to emphasize patience before another rate move. But the lift on sentiments is limited.

              Overnight, DOW extended the rebound but closed up just 0.51% at 24001.92. Nevertheless, reclaiming 24k handle is a positive development. S&P 500 rose 0.45% and NASDAQ rose 0.42%. Treasury yields continued to display strength at the long end. 30-year yield rose 0.027 to 3.051. 10-year yield rose 0.003 to 2.731. But yield curve remains inverted from 1-year (2.615) to 2-year (2.578) to 3-year (2.549) and 5-year (2.568).

              In the currency markets, Dollar is the weakest one in Asian session today, followed by Yen and then Sterling. Commodity currencies and Euro are the strongest.

              Over the week, the picture is pretty similar.

              UK CBI: No-deal Brexit could cause 8% GDP decline, it’s not manageable

                UK CBI Director-General Carolyn Fairbairn is going to want the government that no-deal Brexit could cause -8% decline in GDP, in a speech today.

                In an article at CBI’s website, Faribarin talked about the “dangers” of no-deal Brexit. She warned that “The economic consequences would be profound, widespread and lasting. GDP would decline by up to 8%, meaning less money for our public services and those who rely on them.”

                There would be “new costs and tariffs” and ports would be “disrupted”. Trade deals with countries like Japan, South Korea and Turkey would be “lost”. Services sector would be “at a sharp disadvantage”.

                In short, She said “no-deal cannot be managed”. On next week’s vote in the parliament, she said “”And next week, they face a test. If they meet it with yet more brinkmanship, the whole country could face a no-deal, disorderly Brexit.

                Full article here.

                Bullard: Fed is on the precipice of a policy mistake

                  St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said bluntly that Fed has come to the “end of the road” on the current rate hike cycle. He warned that “I am concerned we are on the precipice of a policy mistake”. And, “what I don’t want to do is project that further increases are needed, that we are somehow short of our goal.”

                  Bullard also urged that Fed should listen to the markets more carefully and seriously. He added “the market’s almost always right in that situation, and it’s the Fed that’s been wrong.” He criticized the December rate hike as a “overreach” which he argued against. But back then, he didn’t have a vote on the FOMC. Bullard is a voter this year.

                  Fed Clarida: Patience is a virtue we can today afford

                    Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said “we can afford to be patient about assessing how to adjust our policy stance to achieve and sustain our dual-mandate objectives”. He noted the Fed begins 2019 “as close to our assigned objectives (price stability and full employment) as we have in a very long time”. Thus, “patience is a virtue and is one we can today afford.”

                    Clarida also warned that “recent developments in the global economy and financial markets represent crosswinds to the U.S. economy”. And, ” If these crosswinds are sustained, appropriate forward­looking monetary policy should seek to offset them”. Fed needs to be ” cognizant of the balance we must strike between (1) being forward looking and preemptive and (2) maximizing the odds of being right.”

                    His full speech here.

                    Powell: Fed will be waiting and watching patiently

                      Fed Chair Jerome Powell echoed other Fed officials’ comments and said yesterday that policymakers can be patient on next rate move. And Fed will be “waiting and watching” in the coming months.

                      Powell said at the Economic Club of Washington that “Especially with inflation low and under control, we have the ability to be patient and watch patiently and carefully as we … figure out which of these two narratives is going to be the story of 2019”. He referred to the risks of overheating and slowdown. Though, he maintained that Fed will continue to shrink the balance sheet to a “substantially smaller” level.

                      Powell also emphasized that the federal funds rate projections are not plan. He said “there is no such plan” and “that was conditional on a very strong outlook for 2019”. He added “there is no pre-set path for rates” and “we can flexibly and quickly move policy, and we can do so significantly if that’s appropriate.”

                      China VP Liu to visit Washington in January for top level trade talks

                        US-China trade negotiation is set to set up to top level talks later in January. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will most likely visit Washington later in the month.

                        He told reports that “The current intent is that the Vice Premier Liu He will most likely come and visit us later in the month and I would expect the government shutdown would have no impact,” And, “we will continue with those meetings just as we sent a delegation to China.”

                        Trump also said yesterday that “we’re negotiating and having tremendous success with China.” Also, “I think that China is actually much easier to deal with than the opposition party”. Trump related to the deadlock he is having with the Democrat on the border wall.

                        Fed Barkin: Economic numbers strong, but business sentiment weakened considerably

                          In a prepared speech, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said ” as we enter 2019, I hear a lot of concern” regarding growth. Such concerns were driven by “trade, international economies or politics.” And some were “market driven, as volatility has increased and the yield curve has narrowed.”

                          Also, he noted that “some companies are still feeling hungover from the Great Recession” and that’s a real issue. That is, “as the economy’s numbers look strong but business sentiment has weakened considerably.”

                          Barking concluded that “the United States faces a slower growth trend that isn’t in any of our interests. Changing the slope is doable via initiatives to expand the workforce and boost productivity growth.”

                          Full speech here.

                          US initial jobless claims dropped -17k to 216k

                            US initial jobless claims dropped -17k to 216k in the week ending January 5, below expectation of 226k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 2.5k to 221.75k. Continuing claims dropped -28k to 1.722M in the week ending December 29. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 15.25k to 1.721M.

                            Released from Canada, new housing price index rose 0.0% mom in November, matched expectations. Building permits rose 2.6% mom, beat expectation of -0.5% mom.

                            Into US session: Aussie and Yen strongest in mixed markets

                              Entering US session, the forex markets are kind of mixed today. Australian Dollar is so far the strongest one, followed by Yen. Stock market rallies are starting to lose momentum but Aussie is paying little attention. Dollar is a close third as it’s trying to recover some of yesterday’s losses. The main driver of Dollar selling is Fed officials comment that patience is needed before making another rate move. Fed Powell, Bullard and Evans will speak again today and will likely reinforce the same message.

                              Sterling is the weakest ones over Brexit uncertainties. Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal will have a meaningful vote next Tuesday. But as the day approaches, it looks increasingly unlikely to get the deal through the parliament. Both Brexiteers and Pro-EU camps look determined to vote it down no matter what. Swiss Franc is the second weakest, followed by Euro.

                              In Europe, at the time of writing:

                              • FTSE is down -0.03%
                              • DAX is down -0.27%
                              • CAC is down -0.69%
                              • German 10 year yield is down -0.024 at 0.198, back below 0.2 handle

                              Earlier in Asia:

                              • Nikkei dropped -1.29%
                              • Singapore Strait Times rose 0.81%
                              • Hong Kong HSI rose 0.22%
                              • China Shanghai SSE dropped 0.36%
                              • Japan 10 year JGB yield dropped -0.0061 to 0.025 but stays positive

                              UK Leadsom: Brexit plan B will be ready within days if the deal is voted down

                                In UK, Andrea Leadsom, the Leader of the House of Commons, said the government will set out its plan B should Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal is voted down next week. She told the Parliament that “the prime minister has shown her willingness to always return to this House at the first possible opportunity if there is anything to report in terms of our Brexit deal and we will continue to do so.”

                                Meanwhile, May’s spokesman said she is still working on more assurances from the EU on the Brexit deal, in particular the Irish backstop. May still hope to convince MPs to vote for the agreement on January 15.

                                Opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said the party would vote against the deal. And after that it’s voted down, “an election must be the priority. It is not only the most practical option, it is also the most democratic option.” Though, he’s open that “if a general election cannot be secured, then we will keep all options on the table, including the option of campaigning for a public vote.”

                                MOFCOM: China-US trade talks enhanced mutual understanding and laid foundation for resolving mutual concerns

                                  In a relatively brief statement, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said the trade talks with the US this week were extensive and laid down the foundation for resolving trade friction between the countries.

                                  The MOFCOM statement said “The two sides actively implemented the important consensus of the two heads of state and conducted extensive, in-depth and meticulous exchanges on trade issues and structural issues of common concern, which enhanced mutual understanding and laid the foundation for resolving mutual concerns. Both parties agreed to continue to maintain close contact.”

                                  Full statement in simplified Chinese.

                                  UK Hammond: No specific benefits in the current Brexit deal, just much worse with no-deal

                                    Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond said yesterday “I firmly believe that my job is to look after the welfare and interests of the British people and I conclude that it would not be in their interests to leave without a deal”. “We are very determined that we need a deal. We need a deal that allows us to continue to cooperate and to have a smooth and orderly exit and we’ll make sure that we do.”

                                    He urged that “What we and many other British businesses need most urgently, is for politicians from all sides to come together and pass a pragmatic agreement that allows an orderly Brexit”. Though, he added that “We don’t see any specific benefits in the current deal. It’s just a lot less bad than a ‘no deal'”.

                                    But as five-day debate over UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal began in the parliament yesterday, there is apparently no breakthrough. Hammond said there is currently no “plan B” to break the deadlock.

                                    EU Trade Commissioner Malmström insists on excluding agriculture in trade negotiation with US

                                      EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström told reporters yesterday that the scope of trade negotiation with the US was not agreed upon yet. But she emphasized that “we have made very clear agriculture will not be included.” In the mean time, EU also haven’t got assurance from the US on holding off auto tariffs during the trade negotiation. But Malmström believed EU won’t be affected while talks were ongoing.

                                      Malmström made the comments after meeting Japanese Minister of the Economy Hiroshige Seko and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer in Washington yesterday, in preparation for another meeting later this week regarding WTO reforms.

                                      European Commission is currently preparing two mandates for trade negotiations with the US. One is for removal of tariffs of industrial goods. Another one is on areas of possible regulatory cooperation in areas such as pharmaceuticals, medical devices and cyber security. The mandates will first have to go through European Commission approval, and then the 28 members of EU states. There is no set time line for the preparation yet.

                                      Separately, Republican Senator Chuck Grassley warned that “I don’t know how anybody in Europe that wants a free trade agreement with us can expect it to get through the US Senate if you don’t want to negotiate agriculture.”

                                      Asian update: Sentiments turned mixed, Dollar weaker after FOMC minutes

                                        Asian markets turned mixed as the rebound in US stocks somewhat lost steam. At the time of writing, Nikkei is trading down -1.14%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.37%, China Shanghai SSE is up 0.23%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.64%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0026 but stays positive at 0.028.

                                        Overnight, DOW ended up just 0.39%, S&P 500 rose 0.41% and NASDAQ gained 0.87%. DOW closed above 38.2% retracement of 26951.81 to 21712.53 at 23713.93 for the second day. Rebound from 21712.53, while slightly stronger than expected, could still be a corrective move. But for now, it will likely have a go at 55 day EMA (24311.49) at least.

                                        Developments in US treasury yields were also positive. 30-year yield rose 0.031 to 3.024, above 3% handle. 10-year yield rose 0.012 to 2.728. But 5-year yield dropped -0.012 to 2.599. Strength at the long end will be welcomed by Fed policy makers. But yield curve remains inverted from 1-year (2.602) to 2-year (2.561) to 3-year(2.533).

                                        In the currency markets, Dollar was sold off overnight after a chorus of Fed officials who want “patience” before another rate hike, including Boston Fed Eric Rosengren, Chicago Fed Charles Evans, Atlanta Fed Raphael Bostic. FOMC minutes of the December meeting also reflected the cautious tone. They noted that “many participants expressed the view that, especially in an environment of muted inflation pressures, the committee could afford to be patient about further policy firming.”Also “a number of participants noted that, before making further changes to the stance of policy, it was important for the committee to assess factors,” including risks on growth and the impact of past rate hikes on the economy.

                                        Dollar is the weakest one for the week for now, followed by Sterling and then Yen. Euro and Swiss Franc are the strongest ones.

                                        US update: Dollar punched down by chorus of “patient” fed officials, no support from rising long yields

                                          Dollar is clearly the biggest loser today, punched down by a chorus of Fed officials who want patience before more rate hikes. While New Zealand Dollar, is keeping the top spot, Euro is indeed the biggest beneficiary of the Dollar selloff.

                                          With 1.15 handle taken out in EUR/USD, the pair should now be heading back to 1.1727 fibonacci level to correct the whole down trend from 1.2555.

                                          Here is a quick recap of the Fedspeaks:

                                          • Boston Fed President  Eric Rosengren: “I believe we can wait for greater clarity before adjusting policy.”
                                          • Chicago Fed President Charles Evans: “I feel we have good capacity to wait and carefully take stock of the incoming data and other developments”.
                                          • Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic: “The appropriate response is to be patient in adjusting the stance of policy and to wait for greater clarity about the direction of the economy and the risks to the outlook”.

                                          We had a first impression that Canadian Dollar is lifted after BoC rate decision, mainly due to the decline in USD/CAD. But the Loonie was just mixed indeed. BoC left interest rate unchanged at 1.75%, lowered 2019 growth forecast by -0.4% due to temporary factors. Inflation is also projected to edge lower from 1.7% and stay below target for most of 2019. But the overall tone of the statement, as well as Governor Stephen Poloz’s press conference, was up beat. Only that Poloz is in no hurry to move interest rate soon.

                                          In the US markets:

                                          • DOW is up 0.61%
                                          • S&P 500 is up 0.51%
                                          • NASDAQ is up 0.73%
                                          • 5-year yield is flat
                                          • 10-year yield is up 0.16 at 2.732
                                          • 30-year yield is up 0.036, back above 3% handle at 3.029. But that provides little support to Dollar

                                          In Europe:

                                          • FTSE rose 0.66%
                                          • DAX rose 0.83%
                                          • CAC rose 0.84%
                                          • German 10 year yield dropped -0.0069 to 0.223