ISM manufacturing dropped to 59.8, but employment rose 0.3 to 58.8

    ISM manufacturing index dropped to 59.8 in September, down from 61.3 and missed expectation of 60.0. Price paid index dropped to 66.9, down from 72.1 and missed expectation of 0.8. Employment component, though rose 0.3 to 58.8.

    ISM noted in the release that:

    • Demand remains strong, consumption improved, inputs improved
    • But continued supply chain inefficiencies led to an increased consumption of inventory and a slight expansion of imports,
    • Export orders expanded, but four major industries are no longer contributing
    • Price pressure continues, but the index softened for the fourth straight month
    • Respondents are again overwhelmingly concerned about tariff-related activity, including how reciprocal tariffs will impact company revenue and current manufacturing locations,

    Full release here.

    EU Weyand: No Brexit renegotiation, no time-limit of backstop, just margin on political declaration

      EU deputy chief negotiator Sabine Weyand reiterated that “there will be no more negotiations on the Withdrawal Agreement”. And given just 60 days from the March 29 Brexit date, time is already tight to complete the ratification of the treaty. However, she also pointed out “where we do have margin is on the political declaration”. But she also emphasized that “we need decisions on the UK side on the direction of travel.”

      Also, Weyand echoed chief negotiator Michel Barnier’s comments regarding Irish backstop. She said “a time-limit on the backstop defeats the purpose of the backstop because it means that once the backstop expires you stand there with no solution for this border.”

      BoE Pill: Nov MPC meeting is finely balanced, live

        BoE’s new Chief Economist Huw Pill said UK inflation is likely to rise “close to or even slightly above 5 per cent” early next year. And, “that’s a very uncomfortable place for a central bank with an inflation target of 2 per cent to be.”

        As for market expectation of a November rate hike, Pill declined to disclose his stance, and just said it’s “finely balanced”, “November is live”. And he added, “maybe there’s a bit too much excitement in the focus on rates right now”.

        “The big picture is, I think, there are reasons that we don’t need the emergency settings of policy that we saw after the intensification of the pandemic,” said Pill. “The settings that we now have are supportive settings. The need for support has diminished, as this bridge has been built and largely traversed.”

        Fed’s Logan: Tight financial conditions crucial to steer inflation back to target

          At a Fed conference overnight, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said that inflation appears to be “trending toward 3%”, a figure still above the 2% target.

          Despite a cooling labor market, Logan highlighted that it remains “too tight,” implying that the job market’s strength could continue to put upward pressure on wages and, consequently, inflation.

          Logan emphasized the need “see tight financial conditions in order to bring inflation to 2% in a timely and sustainable way”. She will be looking at “data” and “financial conditions” as the next meeting in December approaches.

          With a particular focus on recent retracement in 10-year Treasury yield and broader financial conditions, Logan suggests these elements will play a pivotal role in shaping Fed’s forthcoming monetary policy decisions.

           

          UK PMI manufacturing dropped to 48.0, lowest since Feb 2013

            UK PMI Manufacturing dropped to 48.0 in June, down from 49.4 and missed expectation of 49.5. That’s also the lowest level since February 2013. Looking at some details, manufacturing production contracted at fastest pace since October 2012. New export orders dropped for the third straight month. Business optimism dropped to third lowest level on record. Employment fell for the third straight month.

            Rob Dobson, Director at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey:

            “The downturn in UK manufacturing deepened during June, as the impact of firms unwinding stockpiles built before the original Brexit date continued to reverberate through the sector and exacerbate weak demand. This led to solid decreases in both production and new orders, which sank the headline PMI to its lowest in almost six-and-a-half years.

            “Demand from the domestic market weakened, while the additional constraint of slower global economic growth meant new export business fell at one of the fastest rates since late-2014.

            “Although the consumer goods sector was able to eke out further output growth, the rate of expansion slowed sharply. Solid contractions at intermediate and investment goods producers also suggested that businesses were cutting back on both day-to-day and capital spending in increasing numbers.

            “The stranglehold of sustained Brexit-related uncertainty and disruption also weighed heavily on business confidence and employment, as optimism ebbed to one of its lowest levels in the survey history and staff headcounts were reduced for the third straight month.

            “There will need to be a substantial improvement in economic conditions at home and overseas, alongside reductions in both Brexit and domestic political uncertainties, if manufacturing is to see a sustained revival in the coming quarters.”

            Full release here.

            US CBO expects tariffs to lower GDP growth by 0.3% by 2020

              US Congressional Budget Office projected the economy to grow 2.3% in 2019, unchanged from January forecasts. Growth is expected to gradually slow from 2020 to 2023, averaging 1.8% per year.

              The slowdown ahead would be because growth of consumer spending subsides; as growth in purchases by federal, state, and local governments ebbs; and as trade policies weigh on economic activity, particularly business investment.

              Additionally, “higher trade barriers—in particular, increases in tariffs—implemented by the United States and other countries since January 2018 are expected to make U.S. GDP about 0.3 percent smaller than it would have been otherwise by 2020.”

              CBO further explained that “Tariffs reduce domestic GDP mostly by raising domestic prices, thereby reducing the purchasing power of consumers and increasing the cost of business investment. Tariffs also affect business investment by increasing businesses’ uncertainty about future barriers to trade and thus their perceptions of risks associated with investment in the United States and abroad.”

              Full release here.

              Into US session: Sterling weakest on BoE forecasts downgrade, Yen jumps on falling yields

                Entering into US session, Sterling is now the weakest one for today after BoE kept interest rate unchanged but lowered both growth and inflation forecast. According to the Quarterly Inflation Report, even with the assumption of smooth Brexit, BoE projects to hike only once through Q1 2022. UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s visit to Brussel appears to be rather fruitless too. Canadian Dollar is currently the second weakest one followed by New Zealand Dollar. The latter was weighed down by weaker than expected job data released earlier today. Euro is mixed even though EU slashed 2019 growth forecast by -0.6% to 1.3% only.

                At the time of writing, Yen is the strongest one on risk aversion, while Swiss Franc is the second. Both are also helped by sharp decline in German yields. Australian Dollar is the third strongest mainly thanks to weakness elsewhere. Also, Aussie is just taking a breather after yesterday’s steep selloff. Dollar remains generally firm and is set to extend gain against all but Yen, and probably Franc.

                In Europe, currently:

                • FTSE is down -0.08%.
                • DAX is down -1.45%.
                • CAC is down -0.82%.
                • German 10-year yield is sharply lower by -0.0204 at 0.126.

                Earlier in Asia:

                • Nikkei dropped -0.59%.
                • Japan 10-year yield closed up 0.0069 at -0.009, staying negative.
                • Singapore Strait Times rose 0.50%.
                • Hong Kong and China were still on holiday.

                US initial jobless claims rose to 719k, continuing claims at 3.8m

                  US initial jobless claims rose 61k to 719k in the week ending March 27, above expectation of 678k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -10.5k to 719k.

                  Continuing claims dropped -46k to 3794k in the week ending March 20. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -147k to 3979k.

                  Full release here.

                  Japan industrial production dropped -3.6% in indecisive fluctuations

                    Japan industrial production dropped sharply by -3.6% mom in June, much worst than expectation of -1.8% mom. That’s also the largest decline since January 2018. Shipments dropped -3.3% mom while inventories rose 0.3% mom.

                    A Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said in the press briefing that the decline was a reversal of the unexpectedly strong production in the preceding months.” He added, “we don’t believe there is a downward trend, though there isn’t an upward trend either”. Production just “fluctuates indecisively”.

                    Also from Japan, unemployment rate improved to 2.3% in June, down from 2.4%. Number of people in work hit record 67.5m. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said “the jobless rate has been firm and moving narrowly at that level”.

                    BoJ Suzuki: Monetary easing will last even longer due to pandemic

                      BoJ board member Hitoshi Suzuki said “with the economy having lost momentum to achieve our price target due to the pandemic, our monetary easing will last even longer”

                      He noted that the benefits of the central bank’s ultra-easing monetary policy still outweighs the costs. however, “If a second and third wave of infection hits Japan, financial institutions’ credit costs could balloon to levels near those hit after collapse of Lehman Brothers” during the 2008/09 global financial crisis.

                      UK PMI construction dropped to 54.6, speed of recovery lost momentum

                        UK PMI Construction dropped to 54.6 in August, down from July’s 58.1. Markit said subdued order books held back output growth. House building remained the best performing category. Business expectations reached six-month high on hopes of a boost from infrastructure work.

                        Tim Moore, Economics Director at IHS Markit: “The latest PMI data signalled a setback for the UK construction sector as the speed of recovery lost momentum for the first time since the reopening phase began in May…. Another month of widespread job shedding highlighted the ongoing difficulties faced by UK construction companies, with order books often depleted due to a slump in demand from sectors of the economy that have experienced the greatest impact from the pandemic.”

                        Full release here.

                        Japan: Industrial production appears to be pausing for picking up

                          In June economic report, Japan’s government said “industrial production appears to be pausing for picking up.” That’s a downgraded assessment from May’s “industrial production shows movements of picking up.” Exports continued to be “almost flat”.

                          It reiterated that “full attention should be given to the downside risks due to rising raw material prices, supply-side constraints and fluctuations in the financial and capital markets while there are concerns regarding the effects of lengthening the state of affairs of Ukraine and suppression of economic activities in China.”

                          Nevertheless, for the short-term, the economy is “expected to show movements of picking up, supported by the effects of the policies while all possible measures are being taken against infectious diseases, and economic and social activities proceed to normalization”.

                          Full release here.

                          NASDAQ cleared one projection hurdle, targets 16582 next

                            US stocks surged to new record highs overnight despite Fed’s tapering announcement. NASDAQ’s break of 61.8% projection of 13002.52 to 15403.43 from 14181.69 at 15665.44 is a sign that it’s in another acceleration phase. For now near term outlook will stay bullish as long as this week’s low at 15470.74 holds. Next target will be 100% projection at 16582.59.

                            UK May has faithfully and firmly reflected backstop concerns to EU, Brexit deal vote again in week of Jan 14

                              UK Prime Minister Theresa May told MPs that she has “faithfully and firmly” reflected the Commons’ concerns about the Irish border backstop to EU. And she described some of the exchanges with EU leaders as being “robust”. She added that “but I make no apology for standing up for the interests of this house and for the whole of the United Kingdom.

                              Nevertheless, May also repeated what the EU has said. That is, EU hoped that the backstop would not be triggered. And even if the backstop was used, it should be temporary. May also mentioned that French President Emmanuel Macron said no one is trying to lock up the UK to the backstop. Though, May also said further discussions will take place with the EU.

                              On the timing of the vote, May said debate on the Brexit deal with resume in the week beginning Monday January 7. Vote will be held in the following week, that is, the week beginning January 14.

                              ECB Villeroy: Rate hikes are over, but that doesn’t mean a quick cut

                                ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau, in an Ecorama radio interview, stated, “Barring shocks or surprises, rate hikes are over. However, he emphasized that “doesn’t mean a quick rate cut.” He further clarified, “We are not guided by a calendar, we are guided by data,” and called for “confidence and patience.”

                                Villeroy also commented on the pace of disinflation, noting it is occurring “a little quicker than expected,” largely due to the faster-than-anticipated transmission of monetary policy. He concluded, “In other words, monetary policy is effective.”

                                Madis Muller, another ECB Governing Council member, expressed the view that markets might be “a bit optimistic” about the prospects of early rate cuts. This sentiment was echoed by Robert Holzmann, who stated that there were no discussions about rate cuts among policymakers. Holzmann also mentioned that a majority of the Council members perceive upside risks to inflation.

                                BCC: Contraction in business investment to drag UK growth in 2020 and 2021

                                  The British Chambers of Commerce revised up 2019 UK growth forecast to 1.3% (from 1.2%), driven by the “exceptionally rapid stock-building” early in the year. However, 2020 growth forecast was downgraded notably to 1.0% (from 1.3%), 2021 downgraded to 1.2% (from 1.4%). In particular, business investment is forecast to contract -1.3% in 2019 before recovering slightly by 0.4% 2020.

                                  Adam Marshall, Director General of BCC noted: “Businesses are putting resources into contingency plans, such as stockpiling, rather than investing in ventures that would positively contribute to long-term economic growth. This is simply not sustainable”,

                                  Suren Thiru, Head of Economics at BCC said: “The deteriorating outlook for business investment is a key concern as it limits the UK’s productivity potential and long-term growth prospects…. A messy and disorderly exit from the EU remains the main downside risk to the UK’s economic outlook as the disruption caused would increase the likelihood of the UK’s weak growth trajectory translating into a more pronounced deterioration in economic conditions.”

                                  Full release here.

                                  Japan’s Q1 GDP contracts -0.5% qoq, weak consumption and capital spending

                                    Japan’s GDP contracted by -0.5% qoq in Q1, slightly worse than the expected -0.4% qoq decline. On annualized basis, GDP fell by -2.0%, missing forecast of -1.5% drop.

                                    Private consumption, which makes up over half of the Japanese economy, decreased by -0.7%, exceeding anticipated -0.2% decline. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter of decline, the longest streak since 2009.

                                    Capital spending fell by -0.8%, slightly more than the expected -0.7% decrease. This was the first decline in two quarters.

                                    Exports declined by -5.0%, despite ongoing support from inbound tourism, while imports fell by -3.4% amid reduction in energy imports. The trade figures reflect a broader slowdown in global demand, which is impacting Japan’s export-driven economy.

                                    Irish Coveney said Brexit text 90% done, outstanding issues predominantly Ireland related

                                      Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney the Brexit withdrawal treaty is “already about 90% agreed in terms of text”. And, “the issues that haven’t been signed off on yet relate predominantly to Ireland and what’s needed now is the two negotiating teams to lock themselves in a room for the next 10 days.”

                                      European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said earlier in the weekend that “the rapprochement potential between both sides has increased in recent days”. He added, it’s unsure whether the work will be finished in October, but “If not, we’ll do it in November.” And he emphasized EU’s “will is unbroken to reach agreement”

                                      European Council President Donald Tusk also said “We will try for it in October… and I think there is a chance to have an accord by the end of the year.”

                                      UK Barclay: Interest of both EU and UK to have a Brexit deal

                                        UK Brexit Minister Stephen Barclay told BBC today that the government is working on what to ask from the EU to get the deal approved in the parliament. He noted that “the EU don’t want to be in a situation of having no deal – that would have a big impact not just on the Irish economy but other economies, the Dutch economy – so it’s in both sides’ interest to have a deal.”

                                        Separately, German Minister for European Affairs Michael Roth expressed disappointment on UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s statement yesterday. He tweeted “Where is the plan B? Just asking for a friend…” German Justice Minister Katarina Barley also said she was “disappointed” and “that’s not the way forward”.

                                        US Janet Yellen’s Senate confirmation hearing live stream

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