In a report titled “Implications for Business and Trade of a No Deal Exit on 29 March 2019”, the UK government noted that businesses and individuals are under-prepared for no-deal Brexit because they see it as unlikely. But it’s warned that the disruption risk could heighten if it does eventually take place.
The reported noted that “despite communications from the government, there is little evidence that businesses are preparing in earnest for a no-deal scenario, and evidence indicates that readiness of small and medium-sized enterprises in particular is low”.
The government “judges that the reason for this lack of action is often because a no-deal scenario is not seen as a sufficiently credible outcome to take action or outlay expenditure”. And “the lack of preparation by businesses and individuals is likely to add to the disruption experienced in a no-deal scenario”.
Full report here.
Brexit debates will continue today and some amendments will be voted for. But the overall plan should now be set after Prime Minister Theresa May’s statement yesterday. There will be another meaningful vote on the Brexit deal on March 12. May could get a last minute provisional agreement from EU on March 11, if any, with needed change on Irish backstop. If the deal is voted down, there will be a vote on March 13 for the Parliament to give explicit consent to no-deal Brexit. Then on March 14, if no-deal Brexit is ruled out, there will be another vote on Article 50 extension.
Into US session: Sterling extends rally, Swiss Franc strong on Pakistan/India tensions
Entering US session, Sterling is back in the driving seat again and is extending this week’s rally on fading chance of no-deal Brexit. Swiss Franc follows as the second strongest, lifted by escalating Pakistan/India tensions after both shot down each others’ fighter jets. Canadian Dollar is now the third strongest, as oil price rebound. WTI is back above 56.7 as the impact of Trump’s tweet fades. Meanwhile, Aussie and Kiwi are the weakest ones.
Focus will now turn to Canadian CPI first. US will also release trade balance pending home sales and factory orders. Fed chair Jerome Powell will have the second day of Congressional testimony. But testimony of USTR Robert Lighthizer’s testimony will catch more attention. Lighthizer might reveal some of the little known substantial progress in trade talks with China.
In Europe, currently:
Earlier in Asia: