German Merkel confirms to end party leadership

    German Chancellor confirmed the rumor that she is not going to run for leadership of the Christian Democratic Union again in December. Also, she’s stay and carry out my duties as chancellor for the rest of the legislative period till 2021.

    She also confirmed that her hand-picked CDU general secretary, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, and conservative rival, Jens Spahn, will both run as party leader. For now, she is not taking a side but rather, she’s looking at the party leadership race “as an opening, a phase of possibilities,” “a nice process”.

    China exports and imports jumped in Jan-Feb period, Hong Kong HSI not impressed

      Released during the weekend, China’s exports, in USD term, surged 60.6% yoy in the period of Jan-Feb, well above expectations of 38.9% yoy. Imports also rose 22.2% yoy, above expectation of 15.0% yoy. Trade surplus came in at USD 103.3B, much wider than expected USD 60.0B.

      The impressive data could be distorted by usual volatility for the January to February period. Additionally, the strong growth partly reflected the low base set in 2020. Nevertheless, some analysts still noted the strong rebound in both global and domestic demand.

      Stock traders were not too impressed with the data though. Hong Kong HSI quickly reversed initial gains and it’s currently down -1.6%, or -470 pts, at the time of writing. Immediate focus is now on last week’s low at 28513.13. Break there will extend the correction from 31183.35.

      Still, key support lies in 38.2% retracement of 21139.26 to 31183.35 at 27346.50. As long as it holds, the up trend from 21139.26 is still in favor to resume at a later stage.

      Eurozone CPI finalized at 1.6% yoy in Apr, core CPI at 0.7% yoy

        Eurozone CPI was finalized at 1.6% yoy in April, up from March’s 1.3% yoy. Core CPI was finalized at 0.7% yoy. The highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation rate came from energy (+0.96 percentage points, pp), followed by services (+0.37 pp), food, alcohol & tobacco (+0.16 pp) and non-energy industrial goods (+0.12 pp).

        EU CPI was finalized at 2.0% yoy, up from March’s 1.7% yoy. The lowest annual rates were registered in Greece (-1.1%), Portugal (-0.1%) and Malta (0.1%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Hungary (5.2%), Poland (5.1%) and Luxembourg (3.3%). Compared with March, annual inflation fell in three Member States, remained stable in one and rose in twenty-three.

        Full release here.

        Silver targeting key resistance zone at 26 as momentum picks up

          While Gold’s rally stalled after hitting new record high last week, Silver is picking up momentum. Given that Silver has been clearly lagging Gold this year, there is room for Silver to catch up and outperform in Q2.

          Fundamentally, both Gold and Silver as precious metal would benefit from policy loosening of major global central banks. But as additionally as an industrial metal, Silver could be benefited more with global growth and industrial demands pick up.

          Yet, technically, Silver has to overcome key resistance level around 26 first. For now, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 23.99 support holds. It’s possible that consolidation pattern from 26.12 has completed with three waves to 21.92 already.

          Decisive break of 26.12 will confirm resumption of whole rise from 17.54 (2022 low). In this case, the near medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 17.54 to 26.12 from 21.92 at 27.22. Firm break there will pave the way for new record high above 30 later in the year.

          Nevertheless, rejection by 25.91/26.12 resistance zone, or break of 23.99 support, will delay the bullish case and extend the consolidation from 26.12 with another falling leg instead.

          ECB Lane: Reversal of energy prices will feed into lower core

            ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane has asserted that falling energy prices could lead to lower core inflation due to reduced living costs and, consequently, restrained wage increases. However, he stressed the timeline and extent of this effect remain uncertain.

            Speaking at a conference in Dubrovnik, Lane said, “I don’t think it’s symmetric… but when energy prices fall, core inflation does follow, because there is less pressure from an energy cost, there’s less pressure on the cost of living, therefore on nominal wage increases

            “So, we do think this spectacular reversal of energy prices will feed into lower core, but the timeline for that and the scale of it is uncertain,” he added.

            Lane further observed that wage growth is generally progressing at a moderate pace, with many people still bound to older contracts. “The latest deals are coming in at above 5%, but (this is in the) ballpark of what we expect,” he noted.

            Despite this, he expects nominal wage growth to peak this year and suggested it would take real wages until 2025 to recover back to their 2019 level.

            Australia private sector credit dropped -0.2% in June, AUD/NZD retreats

              Australia private sector credit dropped -0.2% mom in June, wore than expectation of 0.2% mom. Housing credits rose 0.2% mom. But personal credits dropped -0.6% mom while business credits dropped even more by -0.8% mom. PPI dropped -1.2% qoq in Q2, much worse than expectation of 0.3% qoq. Annually, PPI turned negative to -0.4% yoy versus expectation of 1.3% yoy.

              Australian Dollar is mixed in Asian session. AUD/NZD dropped notably after hitting 1.0800 yesterday, but it’s quickly recovering. At this point, rise from 1.0565 is still in favor to extend higher as long as 1.0669 support holds. Break of 1.0800 will target 1.0880 high next. However, based on current momentum, we’re not expecting a break there on first attempt. Meanwhile, break of 1.0669 will extend the pattern from 1.0880 with another fall back towards 1.0565 support.

              Australia NAB business confidence dropped to 10 in Apr, conditions rose to 20

                Australia NAB business confidence dropped from 16 to 10 in April. Business conditions rose from 15 to 20. Looking at some details, trading conditions rose from 23 to 27. Profitability conditions rose from 12 to 22. Employment conditions were unchanged at 10.

                NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster said: “Price growth eased somewhat in the April survey after hitting record rates in March, but remained high when looking at the history of the survey, supporting our expectation that inflation will remain elevated in Q2 and likely Q3.

                “Still, the strong business conditions including trading conditions and profitability show that the economy is faring quite well and so far, demand is holding up in the face of higher inflation.”

                Full release here.

                US “detailed list of asks” to China leaked

                  While there is no official communications regarding the so-called trade “negotiation” between US and China, WSJ reported the “detailed list of asks” that the US delegates gave to China during the meeting in Beijing.

                  In short, US asks China to:

                  • narrow trade surplus by US 200B by 2020
                  • reduce trade imbalance immediately
                  • halt subsidies for advanced tech
                  • cut tariffs on all products to levels no higher than that of US
                  • refrain from targeting US farmers and agricultural products
                  • refrain from retaliating against US restrictions on investments from China

                  It’s unsure what the US has offered on the table.

                  When you ask for something without offering anything, that’s not really negotiation. From there, it’s unsure how seriously the US is taking the so called trade negotiation.

                   

                  Fed Barkin supportive of slower, but probably longer and potentially high tightening

                    Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said in an interview yesterday, “I’m very supportive of a (tightening) path that is slower, probably longer and potentially higher than where we were before.”

                    “It is helpful to be somewhat more cautious as you are in restrictive territory,” he said. “It is a better risk-management approach.”

                    “Inflation has been stubborner than I would like,” he said. “As long as inflation stays elevated, that makes the case to me that we need to do more.”

                    RBNZ Hawkesby: A higher currency helps us achieve objectives more quickly

                      RBNZ Assistant Governor Christian Hawkesby said today that the central bank would take “considered steps” in raising interest rate. He added, “we have more confidence around the fact that the labour market is tight and that’s going to build inflation pressures.”

                      Regarding the government’s plan to reopen borders from January, Hawkesby said “One risk we are conscious of in the very short term is that even when the borders reopen, that actually becomes easier for more Kiwis to leave the country than it does for foreigners to come in… So there is a potential that the labour market gets tighter before it gets looser”.

                      Also, “at the moment a higher currency in the short term will actually help us achieve our objectives more quickly because a strong currency will feed through a lower tradeables inflation and feed through to lower inflation, and we are managing inflation from the top side.”

                      Separately, outgoing Deputy Governor Geoff Bascand said inflation is “definitely got some persistence to it for the next 12 months”. He added, we’ll see the CPI moving along at 4 percent over the next year, but we think it will moderate over time, some of those things that have driven it up won’t last forever.”

                      Bascand also said, “we will keep reducing stimulus and do our part to stop inflation from getting momentum into it.”

                      NZ ANZ business confidence falls to 34.7, patchy economy

                        New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence fell from 36.6 to 34.7 in February. Own activity outlook rose from 25.6 to 29.5. Inflation expectations fell from 4.28% to 4.03%. Pricing intentions eased from 50% to 48%, continuing their sideways trend of recent months. Cost expectations fell from 75.6 to 73.5. Wages expectation fell from 81.4 to 78.9.

                        ANZ’s describes the economy as “patchy,” with visible “green shoots” in some sectors, yet acknowledges the “ongoing challenges” facing other segments. The survey does not imply the “economy is rolling over” or that “inflation has been beaten”.

                        Full ANZ business confidence release here.

                        Fed Mester expects some really bad economic numbers, but it’s not a typical recession

                          Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester told CNBC it’s “not unrealistic” to see some “really bad economic numbers” in terms of unemployment and economic activity declining. However, she added that the current downturn is “not a typical recession” as it happened in an otherwise healthy economy brought to a near standstill to fight the coronavirus.

                          “Part of the goal now is to offer the kind of lending and making sure the financial markets stay liquid and making sure they stay on a firm foundation and then bridging people from the economy, which in February looked very good … so that when we get to the other side of this … the economy and economic activity can come back,” Mester said.

                          “One of the things that makes us in a better spot than some other countries is that our banking system was strong coming into this,” she said. “One of the other actions the Fed has taken is to really encourage the banks to continue lending.”

                          Fed Powell noted new tariffs, global slowdown, no-deal Brexit, HK tension and Italy

                            In the highly anticipated Jackson Hole speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that the three weeks since July FOMC meeting “have been eventful”. There were new tariffs on Chinese imports, further evidence in global slowdown notably in Germany and China. Also, there were geopolitical events including “growing possibility of a hard Brexit, rising tensions in Hong Kong, and the dissolution of the Italian government.”

                            Though, US economy has “continued to perform well overall, driven by consumer spending”. Job creation slowed but is “still above overall labor force growth”. Inflation seems to be “moving up closer to 2%. Powell pledged, “based on our assessment of the implications of these developments, we will act as appropriate.

                            Dollar dips mildly after the release but overall, downside is limited for the moment.

                            Powell’s full speech here.

                            Sterling clueless on Brexit chaos

                              Sterling recovers broadly today after knee-jerk reactions to new Brexit chaos overnight. But overall, the Pound is probably as clueless as the UK government on what’s next. Commons Speaker John Bercow invoked a rule to forbid Prime Minister Theresa May to bring back the same Brexit deal for another meaningful vote, unless there are substantial changes in the proposition. The 415-year-old Parliamentary convention is for “sensible use of the House’s time and proper respect for the decisions that it takes”. Without being forewarned, the government just said: “We note the speaker’s statement. This is something that requires proper consideration”, without further elaboration.

                              Now, it’s near impossible for a Brexit deal to be passed this week and hence, Article 50 extensions won’t be a short one. The Sun newspaper reported that May is drafting a letter to European Council President Donald Tusk to request a delay of 9 to 12 months. Some suggested one way to bring back the Brexit deal for another vote is having EU granting another Brexit date than March 29, thus, making the proposition substantially different. Another way is to end the current parliamentary session early without dissolving it, and start a new session. The same deal could then be voted for in “another” session.

                              But then, the fundamental question is not solved. That is, is there enough votes to the current Brexit deal through?

                              Here is Bercow’s statement.

                              Japan industrial production down -1.6% mom in May on vehicle sector

                                Japan’s industrial production recorded a sharper decline than anticipated, dropping by -1.6% mom in May. This marked the first contraction in four months, surpassing expectations of -1.0% decrease. According to survey by Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, manufacturers forecast industrial output to recover by 5.6% in June, only to fall again by -0.6% in July.

                                Among the 15 industrial sectors, 12 reported falling output, with only three seeing rise in production. Notably, motor vehicle sector bore the brunt of the decline, experiencing substantial -8.9% slump from the previous month, with passenger cars and auto body parts being the significant contributors.

                                Also released, the country’s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 2.6%, as expected. The number of jobless individuals decreased by -30k from the prior month, standing at 1.77 million. However, the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare revealed a slight downturn in the job market, with ratio of job openings to job seekers in May dropping to 1.31, down 0.01 point from April.

                                Meanwhile, Tokyo CPI edged down to 3.1% yoy in June, from 3.2% in May. Core CPI, which excludes fresh food, held steady at 3.2% yoy. Core-core CPI, excluding both food and energy, saw a mild decrease from 3.9% yoy to 3.8% yoy.

                                ECB Mersch noted increasing confidence, Vasiliauskas said it’s time to transit from asset purchase

                                  Articles by ECB Executive Board member Yves Mersch and Governing Council member Vitas Vasiliauskas were published Wednesday by Eurofi today. While Mersch’s article was submitted back on March 21 and Vasiliauskas on March 15, there’re worth a quick read.

                                  Mersch’s article was on the topic of “Monetary policy in the euro area: solid expansion with timid price pressure”. He noted that:

                                  • “Confidence has recently risen and convergence is being confirmed — partly because the temporary decline in the inflation rate has been weaker than our internal calculations had predicted,”
                                  • “More resilience will follow eventually. Still, patience and persistence with respect to our monetary policy is required.”

                                  Vasiliauskas article was on the topic of “The time is approaching to seriously consider a smooth transition from the APP”. He noted:

                                  • “We have witnessed the strengthening of broad-based growth and steadily declining unemployment, providing conditions for inflation convergence to our objective.”
                                  • “This has increased my confidence that it is time to transition from the asset purchase program. However, the closure of the program should not be abrupt.”

                                  Here are the articles.

                                  Fed Clarida: Most of early rise in inflation will revert by year-end

                                    Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said in a Bloomberg TV interview that there is a lot of “pent-demand” as well as “pent-up supply” in the economy. Both supply and demand will be in play as the year progresses. The “baseline expectation” is that most of the early rise in inflation this year will “revert by year-end”.

                                    “If inflation at the end of the year has not declined from where it is at the middle of the year might be ‘good evidence’ of inflation that is not transitory,” he added.

                                    Also, Clarida reiterated that “substantial progress is actual progress.” Fed will inform the public about the progresses “as we go through the year”. “We will have ample opportunities as data comes in to inform Fed observers on our progress”, he said.

                                    Fed Mester: Not at a point to dial back policy tools on financial stability risks

                                      Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said, “I would like to see financial stability considerations explicitly incorporated into the monetary policy framework, with an acknowledgment that nonconventional monetary policy has the potential to increase the risks to financial stability.”

                                      “Monetary policymakers need to be clear-eyed that the actions they take to achieve monetary policy goals, while most often complementary to fostering financial stability, can at times contribute to financial stability risks that could jeopardize the achievement of monetary policy goals over time,” she warned.

                                      Nevertheless, she added, “I don’t think we’re at that level where we’re facing that tradeoff between, you know, macro policy tools needing to be dialed back because of financial stability risks.”

                                      Fed Daly: We wont’ preemptively take the punchbowl away from the economy

                                        San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly echoed the rhetorics of her FOMC colleagues, and said, “we won’t be preemptively taking the punchbowl away from the economy”.

                                        Instead, “we want to discipline ourselves here and not get overly joyous that the unemployment rate is coming down, while so many other measures of labor-market activity remain well below pre-pandemic levels, still needing to recover,” she deed.

                                        “So what you’re going to see in our framework is a good, healthy, and I think appropriate, dose of patience.”

                                        UK retailers urge Chancellor Javid to fix broken business rates system

                                          Over 50 retailers in UK sent a joint letter to Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid, urged him to fix the “broken” business rates system. The letter was coordinated by the British Retail Consortium.

                                          The letter urged four fixes, including a freeze in the business rates multiplier; fixing transitional relief, which currently forces many retailers to pay more than they should; introducing an ‘Improvement Relief’ for ratepayers; ensuring that the Valuation Office Agency is fully resourced to do its job.

                                          Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the BRC said:”These four fixes would be an important step to reform the broken business rates system which holds back investment, threatens jobs and harms our high streets. The new Government has an opportunity to unlock the full potential of retail in the UK, and the Prime Minister’s economic package provides a means to do so.