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Fed’s Hammack signals extended hold, favors patience
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack signalled little urgency to adjust policy, saying the Fed is in a good position to hold rates steady and let recent easing work through the economy. "We could be on hold for quite some time”, she added.
Hammack said she prefers to "err on the side of patience" rather than attempt to fine-tune the funds rate, noting that a steady policy stance would itself reflect a healthy economic backdrop. With rates close to a neutral level, she argued that holding steady allows policymakers to better judge how growth and inflation evolve.
She expects economic activity to pick up modestly this year, supported by easier financial conditions, recent interest rate reductions, and fiscal support, among other factors." Labour market conditions also appear broadly stable. Hammack described current dynamics as “low-hire, low-fire,” with businesses reluctant to expand payrolls aggressively but also avoiding large-scale layoffs.
Fed’s Logan says inflation, not jobs, now bigger risk
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan struck a cautious tone on further easing, arguing that downside risks to the US labor market "appear to have meaningfully dissipated" following last year’s three interest-rate cuts. Speaking overnight, Logan said those moves had helped stabilize employment conditions but had also introduced fresh risks on the inflation side.
While she expects inflation to make progress this year, Logan laid out a series of concerns that argue against complacency. She pointed to pending tariff effects, supportive fiscal policy, buoyant financial conditions, and the possibility that deregulation and new technologies could add to price pressures rather than dampen them.
Against that backdrop, Logan said she is “cautiously optimistic” that the Fed’s current policy stance can steer inflation back toward its 2% target without destabilizing the labor market. The next few months of data, she stressed, will be critical in determining whether that balance is being achieved.
For now, her bias is clearly toward holding steady. If inflation slows while the labor market weakens materially, further cuts could become appropriate. But as things stand, Logan said, "I am more worried about inflation remaining stubbornly high."
US retail sales stall in December, consumption ends 2025 on softer note
US retail sales stalled in December, adding to signs that consumer momentum cooled into year-end. Headline sales were flat month-on-month at USD 735B, undershooting expectations for a 0.4% rise and marking a clear slowdown after earlier resilience.
The softness was broad-based. Retail sales excluding autos were also unchanged at USD 596B, missing forecasts for a 0.4% increase. Ex-gasoline sales were flat at USD 682B.
That said, the broader trend remains less alarming. Total retail sales for the October–December 2025 period were up 3.0% year-on-year, pointing to moderation rather than contraction.
